Klawchat 9/23/15.

Re-education for the infants. It’s Klawchat.

Bill Brewtown: Brewers on the Upgrade with new GM ?
Klaw: I believe they are, although I have a real issue with a process where the candidate was apparently selected before they even discussed or interviewed other candidates. It’s a death knell for candidates of color. That’s absolutely nothing against Stearns, but against ownership. That said, they needed better analytical capabilities, which he’ll bring, and an overhaul in player development, which I don’t know if he brings.

Chris: With a very strong AFL performance — could Lucas Sims get into a top 100 prospect list?
Klaw: I can only speak to my own list, which doesn’t have anything to do with small-sample performances like the AFL would present.

Jay R.: Keith, I don’t disagree with you on this, I’m just curious as to your logic: what’s the difference between your stated rationale that potential future career success should factor in to Rookie of the Year voting, and another voter who thinks an MVP candidate should get a boost for playing on a contending team?
Klaw: The MVP rules say explicitly that the winner doesn’t have to be on a playoff team, and considering his team’s record introduces his teammates into an individual award. For the record, though, I’ve never argued that potential future success should be a major variable in ROY voting. I think player age should be a major one – a 28-year-old and a 20-year-old having the same season statistically aren’t equally impressive.

Dana: How good is Greg Bird? Seems like he’s a star in the making with patience, power and at least adequate D at first.
Klaw: Below average defense, probably a low average hitter, but 25-30 homers with a slew of walks is still a hell of a player and maybe a star.

Hudson vs Zito!!!!: Hey Keith! I apologize if you’ve answered this already, but your thoughts on Sean Nolin in Oakland? Do you think he could be a solid “middle of the rotation” guy?
Klaw: Nope, back-end starter at best for me. Big guy with iffy stuff and below average athlete.

John Houser: The Reds are featuring all rookies in the rotation. Any of these guys a long term solution?
Klaw: Lamb for sure. Iglesias probably. Finnegan is a reliever. Desclafani I’m not sold on but he has had an excellent season.

drew: Do you have any concerns over letting Arrieta finishing the game last night? I see a 29 year old who keeps himself in ridiculous shape and is completely capable of going 120 once in a while. His chances on CY?
Klaw: I don’t. He was facing a AAA lineup anyway.

Matt: It’s only been 30 or so games but how concerned are you about Buxton?
Klaw: Zero percent concerned because it’s only been 30 or so games … but it’s clear that Correa was the right call at 1-1 over him back in 2012.

Matt: Better career: Dansby or Brendan Rodgers?
Klaw: Rodgers.

HawkTalk: Keith, play Kreskin for us. When and where will Tony Kemp get his big league shot?
Klaw: Why should he? I don’t get the fascination. Poor defender, zero power, probably 5’4″, and didn’t hit in AAA.

Jay P.: Keith, do you think Harper will be a unanimous MVP this year?
Klaw: No because of narratives and because there are definitely writers who dislike him for having a personality.

Kevin: How high could you see Anderson Espinoza getting to next year? Is AA out of the question?
Klaw: My guess is he’ll be on some sort of workload limit that will keep him from advancing that fast.

Kyle: Does McCullers have a chance to stick as a starter or do you still see him as a closer long-term?
Klaw: Has the three pitches to start but not the command right now.

John: Bogaerts has been hitting for a little bit more power recently. Can he be a 20-25 HR guy?
Klaw: I think so – ball comes off his bat well, has the bat path to hit for power.

Howey: Just started college this week. During undergrad or graduate school did you ever envision yourself working in/around baseball for your career?
Klaw: Never. And I’m not sure if I would have done anything different if I had. Obviously playing baseball would have helped but with my size and metabolic disorder that wasn’t in the cards.

Anonymous: What do you think was Mets thinking in taking Cecchini over Seager in the 2012 draft?
Klaw: Seager would have required an over slot bonus and the Wilpons just don’t do that.

Ben: Before watching Lindor over the past few months would you have said the offensive profile of JP Crawford was similar? We can’t expect this of JP, right?
Klaw: Yes, I would have, and yes, I think we can.

Dave: Do you think Miller and Betances control issues are linked to their usage this season?
Klaw: I think it’s a fair question to ask but impossible to prove either way. I would love to see them get a few days off before the playoffs though.

Dan: More success in the next 5 years: Cubs or Astros?
Klaw: Cubs. Astros might have more talent in the system but Cubs have more predictable talent and will likely have a lot more money to spend.

Christian: Who should Braves target early in next year’s draft?
Klaw: Best player available, regardless of position. There’s no clear 1-1 in the draft right now, or even clear top two, so I wouldn’t pin them down to any player or class of players.

Chris, Larchmont: The playoffs are all about riding the hot hand. Am I crazy to think the Mets should start Matz in Game 1 of NLDS? He’s got plus stuff and, at the moment, has less questions than Harvey or even deGrom.
Klaw: The “hot hand” does not exist. It’s a myth. The few studies that purport to show that it does all end up exposed as having major methodological flaws.

Daniel: Do you support reseeding after the regular season, or sticking with current playoff format? NL Central is gonna get screwed by the current format, but this is a pretty rare circumstance
Klaw: I don’t like changing rules in response to one outlier circumstance that is just a question of (subjective) fairness.

Frank: You generally had positive things to say about Schwarber, but you justifiably ranked him low on your lists due to defensive concerns and whether he’d find a spot on the field. Are there any guys in the near future who might be low on your ranks but have a similar high floor if they can get on the field?
Klaw: Bird would have been higher if I thought he could play good defense at first (on which I’m not sold). AJ Reed still isn’t very good at first but obviously he can hit.

James: About when should we expect your offseason prospect extravaganza on espn?
Klaw: End of January. Takes me a good month to put it all together.

Nick: What would be a reasonable trade package for the Red Sox to give up for Matt Harvey?
Klaw: If I’m the mets I’m insisting on one of the big 3 of Bogaerts, Betts, or Swihart, plus two other guys from the system. Ask for the moon and you might get it. The problem is that Boston can just say screw you, we’re going to go sign two elite starter free agents.

Godd Till: Have you read Underworld? Have you caught Norris’s last two starts? Thoughts on either?
Klaw: Haven’t and won’t read it. Norris looked so much better last night – stuff seems to be all the way back now.

Will: Who’s the next breakout stud from the Cubs after Torres and Contreras this year?
Klaw: Cubs fans gettin’ all greedy now.

Seth: Tim Anderson’s ceiling?
Klaw: Above-average everyday shortstop. Good defense, avg, low OBP, some pop.

Django: Chance that Appel turns out to be a better 1-1 than Bryant? (And is it true the Cubs preferred Appel?)
Klaw: Don’t think there’s a chance of that, and I have mixed intelligence on their prefs so I don’t know.

Tony: Any scouting updates on Luis Ortiz from the end of the season?
Klaw: Heard he was 95-97 again but in short bursts. Still a big fan.

Nick: Frazier or Zimmer the better Indians OF prospect right now?
Klaw: Zimmer, not close for me. Saw Frazier in the playoffs – same issues with swinging and missing at stuff in the zone, not picking up spin. Reminded me of Michael Choice although choice was older.

Bobby: Hey Klaw. Corey Seager is a bad a**. That’s all I got.
Klaw: He is absolutely a badass, and over here you don’t have to censor yourselves!

Eric: Can the voters be wrong if any of the following 3 win the NL Cy Young between Greinke, Kershaw or Arrieta?
Klaw: I’m fine with any of them, but I don’t like Arrieta getting pushed up for the win total. Let’s do it for the right reasons, shall we?

Dave: Do they Mets re-sign both Murphy and Cespedes? I can’t see them sending Conforto down to make room next year.
Klaw: I think neither. Murphy isn’t worth the cost anyway and Cespedes seems likely to be overpaid based on August.

J: Starting Marilynne Robinson’s Houskeeping this week. If I remember correctly you liked it?
Klaw: Loved it. I adore her writing, and the prose in that book has this haunting sparse quality that I will never forget.

Mrs. Grichuk: Injured recently, but has Grichuk moved up to a legit daily corner OF as opposed to a platoon/4th OF?
Klaw: Not for me. I don’t think you can be an everyday corner guy with plate discipline that poor.

Chris Wilcox: How does Michael Conforto only have 12 PA vs lefties in almost 2 months in the majors? Considering the problems that Murphy, Duda, and Granderson have against left handed pitching, is he really any worse of a candidate to face lefties than they are? He seemed to hit lefties reasonably well in the minors, no?
Klaw: He’ll never learn to hit them if they don’t let him face them … and they’re winning that division so it’s not like they have to bench him to help the team right now.

MJ: What do you think the Jays SHOULD do with Osuna next year? Leave him as closer or stretch him out to start? If they start him, how would you manage his innings? Start him in the bullpen and stretch him out by ASB, shut him down early, skip starts, or some other way?
Klaw: Can’t just jump him to 180 innings, so I’d consider making him a sort of long reliever early in the season to stretch him out. I do think he should get a chance to start again.

Ed: I’ve heard that Dillon Cease’s fastball is looking good, but that his control isn’t there at all. Does this line up with where he was at pre-TJ? Is he progressing as you’d expect or is it still too early to tell? Thanks!
Klaw: He walked 16 in 25 innings about a year off surgery. I don’t think that’s remotely alarming or surprising. If he’s still walking 6 per 9 in 2017 I’d be worried.

Phil: Do you think the Mets are going to trade Harvey in the offseason?
Klaw: I think they’ll entertain offers, but if they do so, they almost have to get a young starter back because they traded away their depth in Fulmer and Meisner. Without Harvey they’re at five starters, with Colon presumably gone as a free agent, and of the five remaining three have had some kind of significant injury in the past.

Dave: Do we see james kaprielian up at some point next year?
Klaw: I think he could but the Yankees don’t always move recent draftees aggressively. He’s more command than pure stuff so I think he’ll rip apart A ball next year.

Tom: I think it’s interesting that Twitter/Chat Klaw says that Arreita shouldn’t get pushed up for the Wins total, but BBTN Klaw last night mentioned Arrieta’s 20 wins as something that could be considered. Is it harder in a live forum like that to dispel certain stats especially when your co-hosts are bringing it up?
Klaw: Hold on a minute. I specifically said on the show that won-lost records shouldn’t be considered, but that some voters do consider them and that would help his candidacy. There’s a difference between me arguing who should win and me predicting who will win.

Dan: How did Jake Thompson look when you saw him pitch against Bowie?
Klaw: 90-93, above avg cb, avg-ish SL, handful of mid-80s changeups. Fourth starter who could end up a three or better due to his command and control. Delivery works too, very compact and online to the plate.

Rob: Thoughts on Molly Knight’s comments regarding Yadi?
Klaw: I think she’s generally right in the sense that they are not the same team without him calling games. They’re not dead, but it’s hard to replace what he does with that staff.

Dan: If anybody is going to pull away from the pack and be the clear-cut No. 1 overall pick next year, who’s most likely to do that?
Klaw: The one guy I haven’t seen in this group, Alec Hanson at Oklahoma, was up to 98 in their fall scout day with an above avg slider. Listed at 6’7″, 235. He could end up pulling a Gerrit Cole and separating himself quickly.

Scott: Do you think the Giants re-sign Marlon Byrd? Relatively cheap, and while he isn’t awesome, he’s likely better than anybody else they’d throw out there in LF? Horrible contact rate, but does have some pop.
Klaw: Not on Williamson? I think he can be more productive than what’s left of Byrd, who can’t play defense and as you said is a one-trick guy at the plate.

Rob: How did Kang do vs. what you thought he’d do, and how do you think his success will affect the bidding on Park?
Klaw: I rated him pretty highly – top 15 free agent last winter, thought he’d get about twice as much as he did. I don’t think anything will fully convince GMs that Korean hitters or Japanese hitters are safe bets.

Lars: What have you heard about Nick Gordon. Seems like he really raked for the last 3 months of the season. Do you think he’s a top 100 guy?
Klaw: He was a top 100 guy last winter and he still is one for me. High-contact SS with a chance for more pop than Dee.

Chris H.: Heard the new Chvrches yet (it’s streaming on NPR)? If so, initial thoughts?
Klaw: I’m streaming it right now. I’d already heard 4-5 songs though – “Leave a Trace” might be my favorite song of theirs.

Scott: Good call on Williamson, from my earlier question. Are Beede or Crick ready to join the rotation next year? Thanks again for keeping these chats going. I’m sure I’m speaking for many when I say “thank you.”
Klaw: Don’t think so. Crick has to go to the bullpen; Beede is now throwing 88-89 mph sinkers, his slider has backed up, and he had a 5.60 ERA in AA with bad peripherals.

Justin: Thoughts on Stephen A’s tweet about Andrew Miller as non-closer? Don’t know how you deal with working for that network.
Klaw: It was a scorching hot take. You’d have to be quite ignorant of baseball to think of Miller as some generic reliever; he’s been elite for a little while now, and the comparison to Rivera is absurd because Mo is the best one-inning closer in history.

Nick: From a “readiness” standpoint, who would you feel more comfortable slotting into your opening day rotation next year between Urias, Giolito, or Appel?
Klaw: Appel over Giolito way over Urias.

Jay: Re: Coghlan’s slide, something being commonplace and accepted also doesn’t make it ok.
Klaw: Also true. Like, say, ~39 states lacking any laws banning discrimination against transgender people.

Bob: How highly do you rate Yogi Berra? Not to speak ill of the dead, but it seems that some of his ranking by most is due to his being on some great Yankee teams. Looking at the stats, none of his three MVP awards was deserved. Ted Williams smoked him twice but didn’t play on a championship team those years.
Klaw: I think he’s been overrated because of the teams on which he played, the city in which he played, and his personality. His teammates adored him, the media adored him, the fans adored him, he even got a boost because George Steinbrenner treated him like garbage. Definitely a HoFer though.

Kirk: How does Max Kepler fit into the Twins plans over the next year? Don’t expect him to start the the season in the bigs, but by July I would think he’d be banging on the door…
Klaw: Right field? I know they want to re-sign Hunter, but he’s terrible – as predicted – and they need to move on from that nonsense.

Javier: Hot take: Wu-Tang Clan is or is not something to fuck with?
Klaw: Sources say they are not.

Jeff: Didi Gregorious has been a pleasant surprise after a rough start to the season. He will probably finish with a 3 fWAR season. Is that a reasonable expectation for him or is there more upside?
Klaw: Maybe a little more avg. Otherwise this is what I thought he would be.

Tom: I know you disdain the IBB in nearly all cases, but last night Scioscia IBB’d the winning run with 2 outs in the 9th to face Gattis, a guy who strikes out a lot and doesn’t get on base much. And, presto, he struck out to end the game. Because this actually worked, does it make it good strategy for the situation?
Klaw: I think the math on that one – and like it or not, the IBB is a math question, not a question of what your gut flora tell you – is complex, because Gattis isn’t really a major league hitter. Guys with .275 OBPs (or .500 OBPs) probably fall outside the probability distributions covered by run expectancy charts. Gattis vs any RHP with a decent breaking ball is a bad matchup for Houston, to the point where they should be PH for him late in games.

Chris H: physical newspapers or digital?
Klaw: I haven’t gotten a physical paper in over a decade. I do still read physical books as well as e-books.

Bob: Regarding take-out slides, isn’t the concept of physically interfering with a fielder doing his job contrary to the entire spirit of the game? It’s not a contact sport. For instance, we don’t let players use their hands to knock the ball out of a fielder’s glove (like A-Rod a few years ago).
Klaw: It’s also against the rules. If you’ve been called out, and then go walk over to the guy with the ball and put him in a chokehold, you’re going to get suspended. Why wouldn’t sliding into the guy with your knees up get the same response?

Jonny Bison: I have a ten-month old daughter, and I have found myself throttling back career ambitions so that I can devote more time/energy to fatherhood. I know that you have made similar decisions. Do you think there is an age your daughter will reach where you will start considering career options that you aren’t currently?
Klaw: She’s nine and I’m not really there. If anything I want to be home more than ever because we can do so many more things together. We cook together, we read together, we play boardgames together, we’re going apple picking this weekend, I want to teach her to ride a bike this fall … I’d be nuts to want less time at home.

Zach: Astros DH next season is……?
Klaw: Reed or White.

Troy: pretty sure you’re the biggest brewers hater I’ve ever seen? Why is that? You hate the process for hiring a new gm, but they interviewed brooks, bloom, kantrovitz and Montgomery too. you hate the players, hate the former GM, hate the farm system, hate the owner. Why are you so negative? did gord ash do something to you in Toronto? You’re like a little girl.
Klaw: Sorry, I had to stop laughing before I could answer this. You’re the one having a tantrum in my chat, but I’m “like a little girl” (which is offensive to me as the father of a little girl who could quite easily put you in your place). As for the interview process, I know a lot more about it than you do – including where your list of candidates is wrong.

Ben: Keith, why do we still hear the title “best hitter in baseball” assigned to Miggy? He’s had an extraordinary career, but isnt BHIB currently pretty clearly Number 34 in red? (Unless one thinks he has had a career year at age…22.
Klaw: It’s like an honorific or some crap like that. Miggy’s a great hitter still but not what he was a few years ago and of course not likely to stay healthy for 160 games any more.

Joe: Just saw Neftali Feliz pop up with Detroit, hadn’t seen his name in a while. What went wrong/never materialized for him?
Klaw: Wasn’t quite the same after injuries. Maybe wasn’t that good to begin with but the arm was so electric we were all seduced by it.

JP: Klaw – if your daughter is with a friend’s family and they say, “hey we want to take the girls to McDonalds” how do you respond?
Klaw: Fine with me. My daughter might not be pleased though.

JP: Joe Sheehan tweeted that there are now 4 NL Central teams with analytic front offices…..and the Reds. True or False?
Klaw: Brewers aren’t there yet. Maybe in a year.

Pat: Would you sign Jason Heyward to play CF, or just keep him in a corner?
Klaw: Probably in a corner, to avoid a risk of injury.

Chuck: Who is one player that the media fawns over that really drives you nuts? Someone they waaaaay overrate?
Klaw: Francoeur came up earlier this summer. Torii Hunter. Not a player but the idea that Showalter can do no wrong here – when every one of his previous stops has seen him wear out his welcome faster than a vegan in a butcher shop – perplexes me.

Ben: Keith, why do we still hear the title “best hitter in baseball” assigned to Miggy? He’s had an extraordinary career, but isnt BHIB currently pretty clearly Number 34 in red? (Unless one thinks he has had a career year at age…22.
Klaw: It’s like an honorific or some crap like that. Miggy’s a great hitter still but not what he was a few years ago and of course not likely to stay healthy for 160 games any more.

Kris Bryant: Better question is, why is Coghlan playing almost every day which leaves Soler or Baez (or both) on the bench.
Klaw: Veteran presents?

JP: Joe Sheehan tweeted that there are now 4 NL Central teams with analytic front offices…..and the Reds. True or False?
Klaw: Brewers aren’t there yet. Maybe in a year.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on the new developments in the Patrick Kane case and do you think he should be allowed to still play while he is being investigated for these charges?
Klaw: NHL has the right to suspend him pending resolution and then to conduct its own investigation to determine his fitness to play. And they should.

Oliver Samuel: How would you rank Conforto’s tools and has his performance in the majors increased what you think his fielding ceiling is?
Klaw: No, I thought he could be a solid avg defender in left even on draft day. (Thanks to Rising Apple Blog for digging that up earlier this week.) 60/65 hit, 55 power, 50 glove, I think a 50 or better arm, and while it’s not a tool his plate discipline is plus-plus.

Robert: Coghlan plays because he has a 3.1 fWAR this year, while Soler and Baez have combined for a 0.5 fWAR.
Klaw: Soler and Baez had lower WARs because they were hurt/in the minors. On June 15th Kyle Schwarber had a 0.0 fWAR. Maybe they shouldn’t have played him at all after that?

Pat: Is Jorge Posada a HOFer?
Klaw: Not for me, but he’ll get 30-40% of the vote or so. The sad thing is he would have a much better case if they hadn’t buried him behind Girardi till Jorge turned 26.

Ryan: I really enjoyed the movie reviews you used to do more frequently here on the Dish. What some of your favorite movies you have seen in 2015?
Klaw: I lost my movie buddy (Nick Piecoro) when I left Phoenix. I’ve seen Inside Out and Birdman and I think that’s it. It’s awful.

Jeff: One of my favorite articles you wrote was Tim Raines and the HOF. On that note, do you think that Harper’s season is easier to overlook because Trout accomplished these numbers 2-3 years prior?
Klaw: Thank you. That’s possible, although I think Harper having a personality has hurt him more. Remember when Boswell called him the 7th-best player in their lineup? I don’t know how you look at his skillset and say something like that.

Chris H.: Hot dogs: (a) avoid at all costs; (b) fine, in moderation; or (c) more please?
Klaw: I eat maybe one or two a year.

Will: Why does it seem like the O’s have so much trouble with young pitching (Matusz, Arrieta – before he left, Gausman, Tillman, injuries to Harvey/Bundy)? Is it just the natural risk involved with young arms or do you see an issue in their system?
Klaw: Any time you see that many arms fail to pan out in a short period of time you have to at least consider the most likely explanation that it is a systemic problem, and try to rule that out before accepting that it’s a fluke. Showalter has definitely moved too many guys on the rubber to their detriment. And I’ve now heard a few times from different sources about him and their former pitching coach getting into huge arguments with Arrieta.

Chris H.: Do you or does someone else decide the “sports coat, no tie” look on BT?
Klaw: The exec overseeing BBTN this year dispensed with ties. I’m thrilled – I have always found them uncomfortable and I think dressing more casually lends itself to us being more loose on set. Eduardo and I have been joking around on the show a lot this week and I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

Harrison: Does Austin Meadows develop 25 homerun power? Still a Jay Bruce comp?
Klaw: It is in there but he has to hit the ball on a line more and less on the ground. I’m still a believer because he’s young and the pirates do develop players well.

Ed_____: Wow. And so another kitten is lost needlessly.
Klaw: When the current mass extinction event hits Felis catus, you’ll know who to blame. That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you so much as always for joining me. I’ll be on the late BBTN tonight right after the Dodgers/Dbacks game, and on Thursday night as well. Next Periscope and Klawchat will be next week and my annual “players I got wrong” piece will go up tomorrow. Thanks again!