Klawchat 5/12/16.

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Klaw: This is a low-flying panic attack. Klawchat.

Nick: As a Phillies fan, a lot was made of Nick Williams “improved” plate discipline but since joining the Phillies’ org he’s walked in 3.4% of his PAs. I tried to tell people he had a random spike in May 2015 but they wouldn’t listen… It also got me thinking about Domonic Brown and those two months in 2013. How do you approach these sometimes lengthy statistical spikes in evaluating a player?
Klaw: Now at 18 walks since June 1st of last year in over 400 PA. He can hit and has power, but there’s scant evidence he has any semblance of plate discipline. In his case, I felt somewhat comfortable dismissing or at least downplaying the walk spike because he had three months of playing time after that May bump where his walk rate returned to previously established levels. It’s harder to distinguish when the spike comes in August, or after the All-Star Break, and then it becomes in my mind a question for the scouts: Did the player actually change? Were his mechanics different, or his approach within at bats?

Kevin: I see on your top 100 you have wentz ahead of pint. I have seen both twice this year and agree with you but from what I’ve seen it seems like the industry likes pint more. Do you believe you’re in minority on having wentz above pint? And if so what do you think causes teams to see it this way is it just a pure arm strength bet?
Klaw: I don’t think there’s a strong consensus on this one but it might be 60/40 in favor of Pint, because he throws 100 and you’re not getting fired for taking the guy who throws 100 because if he flops you can always say “but he threw 100!”

Nick: Who are your top sleepers for the draft this year?
Klaw: I don’t know that I have sleepers, but I ranked the top 100 guys with Eric’s help and you might see players higher than you expected on our list. Someone like Ryan Rolison, for example, who I think is an ideal second-pick overpay for a team with lots of money – a polished HS arm with some projection, not a top-10 or top-15 talent by any means but comfortably in the next tier for about half the price of a Pint or Groome.

Paul: I’m a Braves fan. I want Corey Ray. A friend of mine read your Lankford comp and thus is unexcited by him. I presented to him the top 25 position players, by fWAR, from ’95-’98: Bonds, Griffey, Piazza, Bagwell, Biggio, McGwire, Edgar, Knoblauch, Thome, Big Hurt, Vaughn, Lankford, Larkin, Belle, Pudge, ARod, Sosa, Palmeiro, Bernie, Walker, Chipper, Valentin, Lofton, Edmonds, Manny. Seems to me that someone whose 4yr peack performance was right smack dab in the middle of a bunch of HOF’ers, and with a chance to be that for more than 4 years, is something to drool over, and certainly worthy of the 3rd (or 1st) overall pick.
Klaw: I have him ranked 1 right now, and you’ve reasonably well explained my logic. If he’s an above-average regular for five years, that’s a successful outcome. His floor seems pretty high – I’d argue he and Senzel have the highest realistic floors (think pessimistic forecast, but not so pessimistic that you’re thinking he gets hurt or forgets how to play) in the class. Ray has solid upside, maybe fringe star potential, and you’re almost certainly getting an everyday player. Senzel doesn’t seem to have star potential – I think he could be peak Bill Mueller, who was a pretty damn good player but probably never a star – while I think the industry as a whole is most certain of his hit tool out of all bats in the class.

Bryan: Any recent buzz about who the Braves are connected to at 3?
Klaw: All of this stuff is in my top 100 from yesterday – I took all the decent or reliable dope I had and put it in the comments. I’ll do a full mock of the first round next Wednesday. My guess right now is Puk, Senzel, Ray, Groome, Perez for the top five. The Phillies seem to be on Puk, Lewis, Ray, perhaps Senzel, and maybe Moniak but I think that’s more “we really like him, just not at 1.”

Yolo-potato: Out of Moniak, Pint or Groome who is most likely to slip to the Padres at 8? Who do you think is the best out of those 3?
Klaw: Pint most likely. Ranking yesterday has the answer to your second question. I also think they’d jump at Perez if he’s there, or Matt Manning.

Jake: Is Machado now the best player in baseball?
Klaw: No. That player is a National and was just suspended for one game.

Patrick: Do you see josh Ockimey making it to prospect status or just a guy putting up good numbers in Low-A for Red Sox?
Klaw: He’s a prospect. Two Red Sox guys told me in March he was primed for a breakout season, and I saw he’d changed his body quite a bit (in a good way).

Matt: Thoughts on Rio2016 after the Harvard Health report? MLB moved the PR game, but this is a massive difference.
Klaw: They should move the Olympics. No question. Rio was already a disaster before Zika; this should just be the issue that pushes it past the inflection point.

Ryan: I know the swing and miss is the biggest reason you’re more down on Kyle Lewis than most. From what you’ve seen of his swing, is it fixable? Are there things a pro team could do to help him make more contact?
Klaw: It’s not a swing issue.

Steve: In 19 games at AA, Alex Bregman is at .314/.422/.671, with 7 HRs. Could he be in Houston soon? Where would they play him?
Klaw: I think he could play in the big leagues right now. I have no idea where they’d put him; his arm is going to be light for third base, but where else is there room?

Kevin: What is your opinion on Thomas Pnychon? I found Gravity’s Rainbow a slog to get through, but Mason & Dixon was a joy. Irrelevant, funny and fantastical.
Klaw: I loved Inherent Vice, loathed Gravity’s Rainbow, and just did not understand Lot 49.

Lyle: Dalton Kelly – 38th round pick out of UCSB for Seattle has a line of 355/442/464 in the MWL. (The MWL!) Anything of interest here? Or is he Just A Guy who’s had a hot month?
Klaw: You have got to look at the ages on these guys. He’s a 21-nearly-22-year-old college product in low A.

Jeff: Do you think a pitchers stats at the plate should be weighed when voting for Cy Young?
Klaw: No, of course not.

Jeff: Obviously Tyler Wilson isn’t this good and his BABIP and ERA will go up soon. What do you think his future is?
Klaw: Fifth starter. Below league-average. Doesn’t hurt that a third of his innings this year have come against the Twins.

Brian: Hello Keith, thanks for answering our questions. If you are Brian Cashman, which option would you choose to deal with Severino at this time. It is still early and it may or may not be a SSS but.. do you send him down to work on mechanics. ? Or do you leave him up here and try long relief or just keep the status quo and hope for the best ?
Klaw: Do they have a rotation replacement for him? If long relief were an option, I’d rather see that than send him down to dominate AAA hitters again. He’s already done that. Put him somewhere where he’ll be challenged and, if you trust your big league coaching staff, he can work with those coaches on whatever’s ailing him. I don’t have an easy answer; I can see his stuff is flat and up a lot, but is that mechanical? His delivery is the same (I’ve never liked it) as last year, right?

Raymond Gotha II: Klaw, my first time making it over to the new format!! Has your outlook on the Softball O’s changed?
Klaw: I think they’re a .500 team, which is about what they’ve been after the winning streak ended. The pitching is just too light. Gausman’s been better, although he should still miss a lot more bats with his stuff. Tillman’s not going to give up a homer every 40 innings all year.

Ben: What was your impression of Brandon Waddell coming out of Virginia? And have his first 40 IP this year made him worth watching going forward?
Klaw: Just a guy. Throws strikes, fringy stuff.

Jon: Glasnow and Taillon have been getting all the attention, but Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault have been putting up excellent numbers for Indianapolis this season. Do the Pirates have anything coming with those guys as well?
Klaw: Kuhl’s a prospect as a two-pitch reliever. Brault maybe less. Glasnow and Taillon get the attention because they profile as starters, and I’d bet one or both are up by this time next month.

AA Battery: Still SSS this year, but adding last year is it time to think that Puig won’t be able to really figure it out? Just can’t seem to stop swinging and missing…
Klaw: Can’t seem to hit a good fastball any more. Is it conditioning? Approach? Hard to believe he’s no longer the player he was in his first two seasons but you can absolutely pitch to him now.

Al: Do you think Oakland could go with a HS player like Moniak, Manning, Rutherford at #6?
Klaw: I have only heard them with college bats.

Bruce: You dont really talk about craft beer as much as food. Are you just not much of a beer drinker?
Klaw: I love beer. It doesn’t love me back.

Brian: Curious if you read jim bowden’s article up today about mlb execs and proposals for the new CBA. specifically related to the draft eligible players some GMs think players should have to “opt-in” so teams don’t lose picks when they decide to go back to school instead of signing. the other was to assign a set $ to each pick in the draft as opposed to a sliding pool. Pretty obvious both those proposals clearly benefit one side while screwing over the other. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: You lost me in your first seven words.

Kyle S: Can an MLB team legitimately tank? The players are playing hard because they want future jobs, the coaches and manager are in the same boat. Top picks aren’t guaranteed to be a future success so isn’t it at best a very risky proposal?
Klaw: I agree. It’s not “tanking” in the sense that the Sixers have been tanking since before I moved here. It’s actually the correct strategy for a non-contender given the current CBA in baseball.

darius: What is your view on Jameson Taillon, and has it changed with his strong AAA start? Strong 2? Potential 1 as a starter?
Klaw: A two. Never saw the command or changeup for an ace. Has size, velocity, potential out pitch in the slider. Kid’s a worker too. Really pulling for him this year after the disappointment of 2015.

Bret: What are your thoughts on the election going on in the States?
Klaw: I haven’t heard about this.

Eric: Keith, what do you know about Brent Honeywell besides having a sweet name it seems he also has a sweet screwball. He is dominating in advanced A Ball right now, do you know of any other top 100 prospects over the last few years that featured a screwball as his top secondary pitch? How would you rate his potential possible #2 starter?
Klaw: The Rays have deemphasized his screwball, so he’s more than just a novelty guy (he was that in college, though, so you’re not off base). I don’t think he rates quite that high; all the scouts I asked about him in the offseason had him as somewhere around a 4th starter.

Chris: The Mets seem to move their young hitters slowly through minors. Conforto spent some extra time in Brooklyn, Smith did a full year in High-A, and Rosario currently sticking around Port St. Lucie. Is this reflective of an organizational approach? Do you think it’s productive to let young guys get to the point of killing competition before being promoted?
Klaw: Conforto was a total cock-up. They’re just lucky he’s as good as he is because they mishandled him from day one. Smith is still very young for AA, and while Rosario should be in Binghamton now, he won’t be old for that level either. I don’t have a problem with how either of those guys have been handled.

K Welzein: I know the results are SSS, but is there anything you have seen in Almedys Diaz mechanically or in his approach at the plate that suggests he can be a regular to slightly above-average regular offensively for the Cardinals?
Klaw: Actually I’d just argue that anyone who can put the ball in play this often and play a competent middle infield is a regular. Even at a league-average BABIP, which would be much more in line with his time in the minors, he’d be that.

Matias: How is it possible that Bradley Jr went from being “trash”, talked about a potential trade for a mediocre Mariners reliever, to this exciting player that is putting great numbers, with some pop? Between the last months of last season and this start, we cant say its small sample size, right?
Klaw: Well, he was never trash, right? People buried him based on what was still a small sample but didn’t look like one. The part that’s surprising to me is that he’s hitting for average AND power. I thought he could do one or the other. I still kind of think with his low contact rate, he’s going to see the average drop, and he kind of has to sell out a little bit to get to this power. I’d rather see him cut down on the swing a little to improve his contact rate, but that’s kind of a stupid criticism when the guy is hitting .322 and slugging .610.

Ants: Given his start, is Tyler O’Neill now the #1 Mariners prospect? Would he crack in to the top 100 if re-evaulated today?
Klaw: I’ll accept the case for him as their top guy, given who else is/was ahead of him. His power is legit; it was the one thing I saw from him on the positive side in Fall League. But we’re still firmly in SSS territory and I’d like to see him maintain this better plate discipline for a full year, especially since he is right field only and has to hit to be an impact guy. (That sounds too negative. He’s definitely a prospect.)

Joey Butts: You’re an MLB GM. You’re interested in a potential draft pick that had previously been accused (but not convicted) of a serious domestic violence crime. What would the player have to say or do wherein you would feel okay in drafting him?
Klaw: Nothing. I’m out. Men who do that, or who sexually assault women, are not fixable.

Guesto: Any noteworthy prospects out of the state of Louisiana on your radar? LSU, Tulane, UNO are pretty good programs this season.
Klaw: Not for this draft. Good programs, yes, but not draft prospects.

Anonymous: Do you think Byron Buxton will pain out?
Klaw: I think he’ll pan out. He may cause Twins fans some pain until he does.

Kevin: Are Delvin Perez’s makeup concerns about maturity or are they of the Matt Bush variety?
Klaw: Maturity. Bush’s makeup turned out to be so much worse than I’d ever heard before he was drafted.

Marshall: Klaw great work by you and Longenhagen getting the top 100 together. You have (I think you have at least) characterized the draft a little weak at the top as compared to other years. What if any, are the strengths of this draft as compared to years past?
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Paille: Can’t remember you ever wavering on J Bradley Jr as a starting major league center fielder
Klaw: Thank you, I don’t think I did. Weird thing is that I think UZR has his defense below average so far this year (very SSS). I thought he was a 7 defender out there, easy like Sunday morning.

addoeh: Are the number of years the biggest holdup for a Arrieta deal with the Cubs? I figure Cubs looking at 4-5 years with Arrieta 6-7 years.
Klaw: Seems like Arrieta wants free agent money/length which would be 6-8 years and there is no shot IMO the cubs do that.

wrburgess: Do you still see Amir Garrett and Daniel Mengden as bullpen guys? Is the SSS still too small to change the perspective?
Klaw: Did I? I thought I gave both guys a chance to start. Mengden is more command than stuff; Garrett more stuff than command or feel.

Mark: Dylan Cozens showing impressive power and decent walks rates but still striking out a little too much. Is he doing enough to warrant discussion as the Phillies RF of the future?
Klaw: No. And he’s basically doing it all at Reading, which is a good HR park.

Garrett: Having seemingly learn from the Peraza mistake, it looks like the Braves are letting Albies and Swanson each play SS until they are forced to make a decision. In there anything besides positional scarcity and future financials that makes it truly matter where either ends up?
Klaw: Not really. I think both could handle it.

Kay: Gsellman & Ynoa – useful pieces, despite very low K #s? Or just no place to make use of them on a crowded staff – they don’t strike me as ideal relievers.
Klaw: Useful pieces. Maybe as trade bait. Gsellman’s picked up a little velo now and it’s easier to buy him as a starter in the low 90s.

Matt: How often do players actually give a “hometown discount” to a team that happened to draft them- in reference to some criticism Arrieta seems to be taking over his refusal to offer such discounting?
Klaw: Very rare, and honestly, fuck off with demanding someone else take less money from a billionaire owner just to make some guy a happy fan.

BD: Brian Goodwin is at .330/.393/.500 at AAA. 25 yrs old. Back to being a prospect to you?
Klaw: No, not at that age and after three full years of failure, including a failed stint in AAA in 2014 and a demotion last year. I’d need more than 119 AB to buy back in.

Ben: Is it wrong to assume that Oakland favors college players? They’ve drafted HS players high in the past.
Klaw: I’m not assuming anything. That’s not how I do this. I talk to lots of sources to find out which teams are on which players.

Aaron: Kyle Zimmer. I know there is a lot of swing and miss there. But isn’t he better than anything else Cleveland is running out there?
Klaw: That would be Brad and he’s not ready for major league pitching.

Anonymous: Does Moncada make his debut in the majors this year and have a chance to compete for a full time job next year or should I add a year to both those?
Klaw: Add at least a year.

Fritz: How do you feel about A Moon Shaped Pool? Best since In Rainbows? Dismissed for lack of hyphens in the title?
Klaw: No idea. It’s not on Spotify and I don’t subscribe to those other services.

Kevin: Casey Gillaspie hitting .312 /.458/.570 in AA… hot start or something real?
Klaw: This might be something real. He’s doing everything that scouts who liked him in college (I did not, full disclosure) expected him to do, and he’s controlling the strike zone extremely well. Definitely bears watching.

Adam: How low would Groome have to get drafted to wind up at Vanderbilt?
Klaw: Not happening. Ignore the local media – some of those writers have been talking out of their asses this spring. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Justin R: Do you have any interest in murder mysteries/potboilers or not your genre?
Klaw: Yep, love Agatha Christie, Rex Stout, etc. Got two Lord Wimsey mysteries on my Kindle app now.

Anonymous: As a Phillies fan, I’m all aboard the Corey Ray Train. Do think they could get him for under slot and use the extra money in the later rounds?
Klaw: No one is getting full slot at 1-1. It’s a question for the Phillies of who’ll save them the most money relative to their valuation of the player – would you rather have Ray at $6 million or Senzel at $7 million or Puk at $5 million? (I made those numbers up, BTW.)

Steve: Zika is going to be in many places in the US this summer. Should they cancel the MLB season?
Klaw: I’ve spoken to a few experts about this one. Yes, Zika is coming. But we have much better mosquito-fighting programs here, and – here’s where I learned something – we have air conditioning, which drastically curtails the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses.

Aaron: How long do you leave Buxton at AAA? Is this a skill issue or confidence issue?
Klaw: I think it was a confidence issue. Don’t rush him back up. The major-league team isn’t going anywhere. But I wish they’d kept Kepler up to get those at bats.

John: Any chance Dylan Carlson sneaks into supp round?
Klaw: Yes but I think that’s a reach for a power-before-bat 1b-only guy. I had him at 100 on the list.

Scrapper: This stuff about Trea Turner needing to work on stuff is just “blah, blah, blah” shorthand for service time considerations, right? Why am I feeling differently about this than Kris Bryant’s 9 days last year?
Klaw: Yes. And because two months of Turner is a lot bigger deal than nine days of Bryant. If the Mets edge the Nats by a game for the division title, Nats fans will have reason to look at this decision with rage.

Anthony: Keith, rhp Luca Dalatri threw last night in the NJ championship game. He picking up any steam for the draft? A lot of scouts there.
Klaw: No, he’s a college guy.

J Shep: Do you think Nyquist wins the Preakness? If not, got a sleeper?
Klaw: I am not concerned with the Preakness, and the Preakness will not be concerned with me.

Brian: To offer us some context on this draft class, would the guys in the discussion for the top couple picks have been in the top 5 or top 10 in previous drafts?
Klaw: Yes. But I don’t think the guys in the mix for 1-1 would have been in the mix for that spot in any draft since 2006’s.

Guesto: What’s Trevor May’s outlook going forward? Pitching only out of the bullpen for the Twins, but he’s 26 and was valued at roughly 2 WAR in 2015 (when he made 16 starts). He’s a good bullpen arm, but feels like wasted talent by not starting.
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever. Has never shown the command to start.

Nick: Does Zack Collins to the Indians make sense? I know you don’t draft on need, but based on the few write-ups I have read he seems like someone who could move to a position like 1B rather quickly, and could help out a team like Cleveland that needs bats.
Klaw: It makes sense, they like him, but I don’t think he gets to them.

Jack: Does AJ Puk have a chance to be a number 1 in your opinion?
Klaw: No. However, I’m going to Gainesville Friday and Saturday and will see at least part of Puk’s start on Saturday before my flight back.

Josh: You were one of the first well-known baseball writers to get on the Schoop train. Still a believer, and is he a potential multi GG winner at 2B?
Klaw: Still a believer. Not sure about Gold Gloves though. He’s got to hit enough to win one of those.

Matthias: Do you have a go-to technique for duck breasts? I can get a result that is decent, and certainly better than chicken breasts, but not as good as the price would warrant. Related: made my first duck stock with carcass/bones from butchering a whole duck and holy crap! I did not realize that stock could be solid at room temperature.
Klaw: Best stock you’ll ever make. I sear duck breasts. I want to try to sous vide them some time, because getting them perfect in the center while searing them enough to get the skin crispy is a pain in the ass.

James: Keith, do you believe it should fall on the NFHS and NCAA to take better precautions to protect young pitchers from irreparable harm? I realize that kids are still going to blow out their arms, but isn’t it time for better regulations to at least limit the occurrences?
Klaw: Yes, it is. States are moving in this direction and I’d like to see the NCAA follow suit.

Kevin: Christian Stewart has had big power so far in Lakeland for the Tigers high A. Will he hit enough to be an everyday regular at a corner spot or is he more 4th OF type?
Klaw: I think he’s an everyday player. Power over hit, but enough hit to get there.

Josh: Do any of the international signings have a chance to be within the top 100 after signing in July?
Klaw: Unlikely. Maitan, maybe, but scouts I’ve talked to who’ve seen him say he’s the best prospect in VZ/DR this year but don’t speak of him the way they spoke of Sano in his signing year.

Dan-NJ: There is plenty awritten about the velocity of Benintendi moving through the ranks. He’s obviously overmatching A. Same w/ Rodgers – COL, but you don’t hear the same. Is it all about age/experience (SEC v. HS)? IMO, I would move both at the same speed if their results warranted.
Klaw: Well, one plays for Boston, and the other plays for … um … wait, I know this one …

Sean: KLAW – Ketel Marte has sure been a pleasant surprise for us Mariner fans that are used to all prospects going bust. He looks decent with the stick and able to play SS decently to my untrained eyes – what say you, Klaw?
Klaw: Breakout pick for me this year. I was too light on him as a prospect – he can really play short.

Sean: KLAW – SSS of course, but Zunino is hitting again! Is there still a player there?
Klaw: I think so. Rushed to the majors, got really worn down by catching. Good for the M’s for hanging on to him rather than giving up.

Bobby Evans: Should I be excited about my upcoming farm arm in rhp Sam Coonrod?
Klaw: Good reliever.

Alex: Why don’t big money teams go over the draft bonus pool like some do in the J2 signing? Losing a first round the next year and the 100% tax isn’t that tough when you have money to blow. Plus teams know more about draft prospects than the international prospects.
Klaw: I’ve asked this and been asked this and don’t have a great answer. I wonder if any team would call an audible, so to speak, before day two if an elite talent were just sitting there unpicked after day one, and decide to take him even if it meant punting on the following draft.

Matt: On Bregman, I don’t know anything about his defensive abilities, but the numbers say that Correa has not been a great defensive SS in the Majors. Any chance they could move Correa to 3B and have Bregman play SS?
Klaw: I’m defaulting to my old assessment of Correa’s future, which was that he’d be better off at third base. He did work his tail off to stay at short, but he might be elite at third. Worked out OK for Machado, at least.

Jeremy: Played 7 Wonders for the first time and was thoroughly confused by the instructions. Being a person who games a lot, do you have a go-to method for figuring out confusing rules?
Klaw: That game might have the most complicated written instructions for a game that’s actually quite simple and plays in under an hour. Usually we play once, screw up, and then go to Boardgamegeek to look at the Rules threads on the game.

KJ: Do you have a problem with Bryce Harper using naughty words?
Klaw: No. But I have a problem with him seeking out an ump postgame and saying what he said to that ump in full view of a camera.

Benny: Have you or Eric personally seen everyone on the top 100, or do you rely on the evaluations of your peers in the scouting community to rank the guys near the bottom of the list?
Klaw: Definitely haven’t seen everyone – impossible to see some of the pop-up guys lower down the list – but between last summer and this spring I think the only top 25 guy neither of us will see is Quantrill, who hasn’t pitched at all after TJ. Ian Anderson is the top guy I won’t see personally, I think, because he’s made just one official appearance around weather and his bout of pneumonia.

Marshall: At what point in your mind does SSS stop being a sample and simply becoming true reality …more than 150 at bats?
Klaw: Oh yeah. Double that and we can talk.

Sterling: Is Archie Bradley a AAAA pitcher, or do you still have faith? He can’t seem to get big league hitters to whiff.
Klaw: Put him in the 7th inning and tell him to air it out, fastball/curveball.

Raymond Gotha II: Did you ever see this type of potential out of Machado? I’m from B-More and I myself only saw something more like 300/350/475 with like 25 hr or so. I guess I was less dubious that the line drive and doubles power was gonna turn into 40hr power
Klaw: Loved him as an amateur – I ranked him 2nd in the class after Harper, over Taillon. Called him A-Rod Lite.

Ben: Reaction to Edwin Diaz’s conversion to RP?
Klaw: Expected. Think he could be very good there.

Travis: Is it still likely that Xander turns in to a 20 HR guy?
Klaw: I believe he will.

Bill: Have you heard any recent news on Kevin Maitan and the Braves? Are they still likely to sign him? Thanks.
Klaw: This has been locked in for a year already.

Jake: Where would Seth Beer have ranked?
Klaw: Impossible to say. If he were eligible, he’d be a nearly 20-year-old HS player and we’d all be downgrading him for that.

Alex: Re Louisiana prospects: Jake Rogers and Stephan Alemais at Tulane seems to be getting a fair share of love draft wise. You don’t see them as draft prospects?
Klaw: No, not in the top three rounds certainly.

Kevin: What college has the best baseball facilities that you have visited?
Klaw: LSU’s are ridiculous. They’re better than some MLB spring training facilities.

Hogie: Drew Ward at .301/.388/.549 . Still only 21. Back to being a prospect for you? If no- whats he gotta do?
Klaw: No. Repeating the level. Still needs to go to 1b.

Kay: Did I see you post something about Dylan Bundy throwing ~300 pitches as an amateur? How does that happen? I get that not every kid is gonna be a pro – but there are definitely going to be a few who never make it because of stupidity like this.
Klaw: Over the course of a 3-4 day tournament, yes. His dad would often brag about how Dylan had built up for this workload. Now the kid has calcification in his shoulder and can’t miss a bat. Orioles need to try to pass him through optional waivers so he can go to AAA.

Brad: Any chance Atlanta could get two of Will Benson, Lowe and Keiboom at 40 and 44?
Klaw: I think that’s very unlikely.

Michael: When a player like Kevin Pillar gets drafted so late and is never labeled a top prospect, do you consider that a scouting failure or just the randomness of the job?
Klaw: Just the randomness of the job. He’s got a .305 career OBP in the majors; he has to be an elite defensive CF to be anything at all.

Mike: Anything new on Cal Quantrill?
Klaw: Yes, in the top 100 post. You should read that. I spent a lot of time on it.

Tom: Already this season, Archer has reference “Of Mice and Men” and “Encyclopedia Brown.” If they feature “Animal Farm” and “The Great Brain” before season’s end, I might spontaneously combust.
Klaw: I gave up on the show with the Vice season.

Mike: Your description of Dylan Carlson sounds a lot like your feelings on Rowdy Tellez, who came out of the same high school. Do you see them as comparable players?
Klaw: No. Tellez was awful. DH only with power and no bat speed.

Tom: Level of 1 to PANIC how should I feel about Matz having forearm issues and missing his next start?
Klaw: It’s never good when a guy who’s had trouble staying healthy has another arm issue.

Jay: Did you hear that smelling farts can cure cancer?
Klaw: One study showed that reading Klawchat every week can make you last 30% longer in bed. Science is never wrong!

Ants: Have you read Ann Leckie’s Imperial Radch trilogy? Thoughts?
Klaw: I thought Ancillary Justice was OK and haven’t read the rest.

Michael: The guys on the radio are saying Xander has to hit 20 home runs to be really good. What should I do with my radio?
Klaw: I don’t even own a radio.

Dave: You were high on Alec Hansen last November and have moved him down in your rankings after a lousy spring. How hard is it to know what you are going from him?
Klaw: You don’t until someone gets to check him out physically and see if there’s an injury behind the awful performance.

MTM: Gonsalves is slaying people in high A. Projections for him?
Klaw: Unchanged. Back-end starter. FB-CH, below avg breaking ball.

Greg: Does Ian Anderson fall in the draft because of his lack of pitching this spring? I wonder how much his short season will affect his stock, since his health woes weren’t related to his mechanics at all
Klaw: I have heard he could still go very high, because he was so good last summer, but yeah, it’s hard to go to your owner and say you want to give a kid $3 million based on ten innings of scouting.

Ridley Kemp: Have you ever been so repulsed by a book you just couldn’t finish it? That was Henry and June for me.
Klaw: Running With Scissors. Not so much that it was graphic, but that it was pandering. I finished Naked Lunch and Tropic of Cancer but didn’t like either of them.

forever it: Alex Verdugo killing it in AA as a 19-year-old. Has his ceiling risen for you since the start of the year?
Klaw: Nope. Because … wait for it … SSS.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week. Thanks as always for the questions. I’ll have the 2006 redraft column up on Monday, my first “mock” first-round projection on Wednesday, and another chat next Thursday. Hope to see a few of you in Gainesville this weekend.

Comments

  1. If you had to guess where does Ozzie Albies rank in a mid-season update and for 2017 in your top 100 rankings?

  2. What are your thoughts about Odubel Herrera as a hitter? I know the season is barely a month old, but I’m stunned by the number of pitches he’s seeing and the walks. How impressive is he at the plate?

  3. Keith, I know the Tigers are connected to a lot of arms but are they in on any position players, and if so which ones? Thanks!

  4. I’d check out a couple episodes of the post-Vice seasons of Archer. Last year it definitely returned to pre-Vice levels, and this year has been pretty funny as well (except episode 1)

  5. Nick Christie

    Super excited for this scientifically shown predilection to gain 30% in bed. Thanks, KLaw.

    Also, if you see this, could you compare Bregman with what Ackley was like at his status (high pick out of college strong production in AA)? Is this a comparison you think about with the bat? Or not something to worry about?

    • I don’t worry about that one because I’ve seen Bregman since HS and have never doubted that he could and would hit.

  6. You’ve talked quite a bit about the Orioles effing with pitchers (position on the rubber, hatred of the cutter, etc). Do they as an organization look at Arrieta and try to deduce where they went wrong and maybe modify their protocols? Or do they throw their hands in the air and chalk it up to bad luck? I fear it’s the latter (not that they currently have a lot of arms to eff up anyway)

    • I think Arrieta’s success after leaving is the reason Rick Adair is no longer with the Orioles.

  7. Anyone notice how some of Keith’s responses end up being overwritten to “about an hour ago”. Has happened in a bunch of chats. I found it by copying and pasting one of my questions and the response had been overwritten.

    Maybe a glitch in the chat software.

  8. Radiohead’s Moon Shaped Pool is streaming for free on BBC6 for the next 3 weeks.

  9. Man, some people seriously need to go to sample size school. On another note, Ksorry to have missed the chat Klaw, after seeing your response about Coonrod for the second time in a few weeks, who among the Giants minor league arms do you think could be an effective starter? Not back-end slop but maybe having a decent chance at being average-ish?

Trackbacks

  1. […] Law called Senzel and Ray the two highest-floor bats in the draft, and the 21-year-old has seen his draft stock soar this season while mashing SEC pitching in his third year with the Volunteers, hitting .343/.441/.591 with more walks than strikeouts. You don’t need me to tell you that draft prospect stats, whether they’re coming from high school or college, don’t mean a whole lot, but he seems to have risen in similar fashion as Benintendi a year ago. […]