Klawchat 4/13/16.

Klaw: How strange it is to be anything at all. Klawchat.

Ryan: You talked about swing and miss with Kyle Lewis. I know he has more BBs than Ks this year. Are you saying that’s because of competition?
Klaw: You’re scouting the stat line there. You can swing and miss quite a bit and still walk a lot. And when scouts go see these players, they’re also looking at what the hitter does against better quality pitching. Lewis does play in a bad conference and hasn’t faced anything close to what the hitters in the SEC are facing.

Alex in Austin: In the past you seemed to be a proponent of Brian O’Connor and his program, yet after your most recent visit to Charlottesville it seems the sentiment has changed and you’re lower on Jones and Thaiss than others. What would you suggest the coaching staff do differently?
Klaw: I think he’s run a great college program, recruiting well, obviously winning games, and in general never overworked his arms. But over the last 4-5 years it seems like they’ve tried to imprint the same delivery on every pitcher, which 1) i don’t like because every player’s body is different and 2) the delivery they push appears to be less than mechanically sound.

John: Where would Groome be ranked in an average draft class?
Klaw: Top 5. Wouldn’t have been 1-1 in the peak years of 2009-12 (Strasburg, Harper, Cole, then Buxton/Correa).

Pat: Usual caveats aside, but Kaprielian touching 97 and absolutely dominating in High A is a great sign. Temper my unparalleled excitement a bit please.
Klaw: If I temper your excitement, who’s going to temper mine?

Bill: With Rutherford being 19, do you think he might be able to move faster than the 18 year-old HS prospects?
Klaw: I do. This is the hope if you draft him. I understand the history of 19-year-old HS bats is poor, but in this class I don’t see any better HS hit tools.

Patrick: What to make of Dylan Bundy’s two appearances for the Orioles? He was a hot prospect a few years back, but injury had sapped a lot of the excitement around him.
Klaw: Stuff looks fine but it’s a durability question. He’s got calcification in his shoulder, and I have zero idea how well he can hold up or how much he can pitch. (Which isn’t to say he can’t; I’m saying I have absolutely no clue, because we lack precedents.)

Joe: You have mentioned immaturity issues with Delvin Perez, are those issues enough to significantly effect his draft position?
Klaw: Yes, for now. Groome has some similar question marks. It speaks to their talent levels that I still have them 1-2 over Corey Ray, who has outstanding makeup.

Paul: Klaw – saw your tweet about reading ‘Danny, The Champion of the World” to your daughter. I was a huge Dahl fan as a kid. Saw ‘The BFG’ is coming to the big screen and hoping it’s good; would like to get my niece into his books.
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

David: I’m a Mets fan struggling to keep myself all calm and rational despite this early start…..oh, you mean I’m discussing Noah Syndergaard and his death slider??? Keith, i know it’s SSS but Syndergaard has 18 swings and misses on 45 sliders – how can one stay calm in the face of this? 🙂
Klaw: See my Kaprelian answer. Someone – Kurkjian maybe? – I work with picked Thor to win the CYA and that’s looking rather smart right now.

Uncle Ruckus: My Brew Crew have the 5th overall pick. What are the odds either SP Pint or Hansen are still available? I’m assuming Puk & Groome would already be taken. Or is a SS like Delvin Perez or any of the top shelf OFs so good that a team as loaded with young SS/OF talent as the Crew would pick one of them over a potential ace of the future? Thanks!
Klaw: Read my top 50 from the other day – Hansen is out of the rotation, Puk hasn’t really pitched in two weeks.

Tad Billows: I follow you pretty regularly and I am wondering what your thoughts are on the pitcher out of Pitt, named TJ Zeuch. The kid is 6’7″ tall, 225 lbs, sits 92-95 (topping out at 98), with a plus curve, avg to plus slider and a serviceable change up but I don’t recall you ever talking about him. I read from others that he is projected first or sandwich round. Sounds REALLY projectable. Thoughts?
Klaw: I’ve talked to scouts who’ve seen him and what you offered is not an accurate scouring report. What you described would probably be the odds-on 1-1 favorite.

Todd: Who are you most excited about in the A’s system and why?
Klaw: Barreto, because he’s the best prospect (duh?).

Matthew: Is Trace Thompson just a 4OF or can he see regular playing time here on out. Kendrick is apparently a possibility to see OF work too now so wondering how you think that plays out.
Klaw: I think he has a chance to be a regular. Not a lock, but enough defense + power to get there even if he strikes out too much.

Joey (Oakland): i had no idea how bad Khris Davis’ plate discipline is. He looks awful right now. Please tell me this is just early season bias and he’ll get better?
Klaw: He’s produced more than I expected the last two years but you identified the reason I thought he’d peak as a fourth OF. He has power, but as a hitter … I wouldn’t say he ‘can’t hit’ but his approach ranges from not good to lousy.

Craig: Do you see the Brewers taking a high-ceiling, low-floor player (college or HS) with the #5 pick?
Klaw: No. I see them taking best player available because that’s what Ray Montgomery has done in every draft he’s ever overseen as a scouting director. And if you look at his track record you should be very very fine with this.

Maddon: Contreras is continuing to rake at AAA. I know he has more to learn about catching, but isn’t 2-3 days of him better than having Ross and Montero take all seven games in a week?
Klaw: No, not if you agree that he has work to do behind the plate. It’s not like the big league team is hurting now either.

ECinDC: How did Erick Fedde look? Is he back to pre-draft form? Based on your tweets, seemed ok! Also, do Nats do anything particularly well dealing with young injured pitchers?
Klaw: Two pitch guy, nothing to get LHB out. Hard to see him as a starter with that arsenal.

Sean in Tallahassee: Saw your brief write up on D. Mendoza (Lake Minneola); any extended thoughts/how far is he from top 50 ranking?
Klaw: Has to be somewhere in the next 50 but the swing and miss plus the mechanics – the guy’s ass is in the dugout – give him huge bust potential.

Nate: You mentioned on twitter yesterday that the Reds weren’t in on Delvin Perez? Is there a particular reason they aren’t interested?
Klaw: I said I don’t think he’s in their mix. That could be wrong – it’s still plenty early for teams to change their minds.

Nils: You’ve mentioned many times to not read into small sample size. I understand that completely with regards to stats, but does that also go for tools? If a guy who usually throws 90-94 is suddenly hitting 95-98 in one game, do you wait to see it again before taking it seriously?
Klaw: Yes, that’s absolutely true. A dose of skepticism can come in handy in this job. I’d rather be a little late on the bandwagon than be the guy waving the flag for every kid who had a great outing.

Brian: Keith, you have seen a few games at Wilmington commenting on prospects from other orgs. Is there any prospect on the Wilmington roster worth keeping an eye on for a Royals fan? Thanks.
Klaw: Staumont, whom I tweeted about this morning. O’Hearn is the only bat of note and I see more strength than hit tool. He does put the ball in play a lot, which has gotten him some extra hits thanks to A-ball fielding. Usually a guy like him would swing and miss more.

David: Regarding HS pitchers – do teams prefer guys pitch 4 or 5 innings per week to “save” their arms? It amazes me that MLB teams will hand out 5 or 6M to a kid who pitches maybe 40-50 innings. I guess the real question is do you think being a work-horse pitcher is something you are born with or is it an attribute that can be molded?
Klaw: We don’t want to see anyone pitching while fatigued. There isn’t a magic number, but we all know what it looks like when a kid is tired – his velo drops, his command wavers, his arm slot drifts down, etc. If you’re a HS coach reading this, please, don’t do that. Take him out five pitches too soon if you have to.

Sven: Are teams generally being more aggressive in pushing their prospects? Alex Verdugo to AA at 19yo and Corny Randolph to full-A at 18yo?
Klaw: No, I thought Randolph had to go to Lakewood – most advanced HS bat in the class last year, what the hell is he going to learn in extended spring training? – and sending Verdugo to the Cal League might not help him much either.

Danny: Could a team win if they fielded a lineup that averaged an OBP of .375 but hit no home runs?
Klaw: Yes, but who the hell would watch?

Don: Hello Keith, love the chats and insider stuff should a team with small money allocations for the draft (like the cubs this year) be wise to spend big on one guy and draft seniors and other low dollar players to pay for it or try and draft evenly through the draft even though they likely wont get a known stud?
Klaw: I think they have to be prepared for the overslot kid who slides to them, so they can call the quick audible, take him, and know what their plan is through the rest of the top ten. If the right player doesn’t fall, then just take BPA as usual.

Don: When it comes to draft you say, and I believe also, you draft BPA but how big is each teams scouting board? when does the dart throwing start for teams? seems with 40 rounds teams would be taking shots in the dark in last 5-10 rounds
Klaw: The boards are usually structured in several segments; in Toronto we had the top board of anywhere from 50-100 guys, then started breaking down by position, with separate areas for medicals, unsignables, and so on.

Nelson: To what do you attribute the explosion of popularity of food tourism?
Klaw: Television. And I guess social media too. Eating is now an activity we share and discuss with people who aren’t at the table. I often eat alone on the road, which is fine with me because it’s quick and I always have a book, but a big dinner at a great restaurant with a bunch of friends is an experience to hold on to.

GN: My nephew is deciding right now between the University of Wisconsin on a full scholarship versus Harvard on no scholarship, which would incur him about $5k of debt per year. We’re getting all sorts of varying opinions on the matter, which would you choose? He’s interested in medicine btw, but he’s also 18 so who knows if that’s what he will pursue in the end.
Klaw: If it’s only $5k/year, go to Harvard. The value of that name on the resume will more than cover the added expense. If you were comparing full cost at Harvard to no cost at another school, I’d answer differently.

Alpha610: Only reason for Michael Reed not yet being up is because of the service time bs, right? Brewers are trotting out absolute scrubs in CF right now.
Klaw: I assume so but haven’t asked. He didn’t play AAA last year so perhaps they wanted him to get 100+ AB there.

Adam S: Why do major news outlets give a forum to so much anti-science, anti-fact? Today (pun intended) De Niro, but more broadly “analysis” lacking any factual basis on ESPN or MLB Network?
Klaw: Because they want eyeballs and give no fucks about fact, science, or responsibility. TODAY’s producers should be ashamed. I doubt they are though.

Tim: Hey Keith, enjoyed the top 50 – thanks for all of your and Eric’s hard work. If you’re the Reds, with the largest pool in the draft and the #2 and #35 picks in the 1st round, and the #42 pick (#2 in 2nd round), what would be your strategy with those three picks? (Assume Groome gets snatched up by the McPhillies). Seems like they can go underslot with their first pick and really go after guys they want with their 2nd two picks.
Klaw: I don’t think the Phillies want a HS arm at 1. If the Reds want Groome, great – probably demands full slot there, but you should get any player you take for the amount of the slot at #3, which would save you a million or so. I’d say then go hard after the guys you like at the next two slots – and while it’s illegal, yes, call some kids and say “hey, we’ll give you $3MM at pick 35, if you want that, tell other teams you’re not signing” because EVERYBODY does this – and then go cheaper in rounds 4-10 if necessary. A draft where you land three impact or elite upside talents is probably going to be a great one even if you have to take a few extra seniors to pay for it.

Mike: Please don’t consider this an angry “you hate my team” rant. I really want to ask if it is possible if PECOTA and other prediction methods don’t properly rate some types of teams? For example, both the Royals and Orioles seem to be consistently underrated in the preseason despite success in winning games the past few seasons (so we are past SSS). Does PECOTA maybe undervalue defense? Bullpens? Or God forbid, managers? With all the advances in statistical analysis, I just think there may be a small blind spot for some type of teams. Thanks!
Klaw: Better question for the folks who do those projections. My guess is that you’re focusing too much on small blips that over long periods would even out more. A projection system coming in short on one team three years in a row probably isn’t that unusual if we had the ability to look at 50 years of projections and results.

Lopez 2.0: It looks like Eovaldi has added a sick 89-91 mph slider to his arsenal. Got a lot of whiffs on it against Houston. However, in that outing the Astros consistently made contact with his 96-99 mph heater, and it looked like it had pretty good movement on it as well. Is the reason Eovaldi gets hit so often because guys see the ball so well out of his hands? I can’t think of anything else.
Klaw: That and the fastball is straight enough to hang laundry on.

David (ATL): When you start putting together mock drafts, what percentage of that is based on specific intel you are getting from clubs/scouts vs. your guesses based on prior drafts or organizational philosophy?
Klaw: As close to 100% as I can possibly get it. This is why I don’t do mocks early – teams haven’t narrowed their decision sets yet. And I hate saying “they’re on player X” and finding out later that they were not on player X.

JD: You seem unenthusiastic about this year’s crop. Does 2017 look more exciting?
Klaw: It does, and I’m not just saying that because that’s what we say every year. I like the college pitching crop already, and a couple of SoCal scouts have told me it’s a huge HS crop out there next year too.

Michael: I saw Lowe and Kieboom last Friday……Lowe showed his power first AB with a bomb to straighaway center. Question is how does he project defensively?? He did boot a ball that seemed like a fairly routine play at 3rd
Klaw: Nice, I’m planning to see Lowe vs Benson this Friday (and maybe stop by Spiller Park Coffee that morning). I’ve heard the arm plays anywhere but he’d need a lot of work at third. Would like to see myself, of course.

Dan: Odds right now on the #1 pick in June – are you taking Groome or the field?
Klaw: The field. I got a question from someone named Dan on Facebook that assumed that the no-hitter Groome threw the other day improved his standing and made him the favorite to go 1 now. My response was a bit short, but I’ll offer more depth here: No, it doesn’t, because results aren’t as important at that level as stuff, body, and mechanics (remember Patrick Schuster?); because Groome faces some awful competition and is going to put up some ungodly numbers down there; and because it happened before I posted my list so I would have made any adjustments if I thought one was required. I hope that answers other-Dan’s question more fully.

JD: Lets assume Olivera gets more severely punished — either legally or by the league — than Chapman and Reyes. Will you have any concern that stars are getting treated differently from lesser players — and particularly, foreign players without as solid a footing in the US?
Klaw: No because in this case i think MLB will have better info. If the police report is accurate, he may face jail time. The other two guys skated on legal repercussions.

G: Have you read “Possession” by A.S. Byatt? I find myself completely entranced by it–reminds me of Nabokov’s “Pale Fire” in deconstructing the novel.
Klaw: Yes. Didn’t love either of those books for the reason you liked them. I like novels. Stop deconstructing them in front of me.

addoeh: Any scouting trips planned to permafrost land to see Cooper Johnson, Lux, and Rortvedt? Plenty of Culver’s around, plus a trip to Kopp’s.
Klaw: Johnson perhaps, the others are probably going to be too tough with my schedule. Johnson at least is easy because he’s near Chicago and I can do other stuff while there.

Amru: At the end of the day, do Braves draft according to need (college bat), or do they take best player available (Pint, Perez, Rutherford, etc)?
Klaw: I don’t agree that those two will be different.

Mike: Does rhe 7-0 start change your opinion on the Orioles at all?
Klaw: No, because a major league season has 162 games.

Jake: Could Orlando Arcia be the #1 prospect next year if he doesn’t graduate?
Klaw: Sure, that’s possible.

Nelson: Do you see Inciarte and Mallex Smith in the same outfield on a championship caliber team?
Klaw: I do not.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you listen to music in front of your daughter? If so, how do you handle bad language? avoid it? talk over it? talk about it?
Klaw: Yes. We talk about it. She knows those words. I don’t really see a reason to censor bands she likes (e.g., CHVRCHES) because of an occasional profanity. If the song’s entire content were objectionable, that would be a different story. She’s still only 9 so topics like sex are still off limits.

Lucien: Thoughts on the Giants locking up Belt until 2021?
Klaw: Those deals are nearly always good for the clubs. This one was also good for the player given his injuries and inconsistency earlier in his career.

Joe: Where does Bo Bichette end up on the field? Any chance to stay at short?
Klaw: No chance at short. I think second or third. I like him more than the industry, I think; he’s calmed down his swing a lot, so early impressions may still be hurting him, plus his brother struggling could have people wary of Bo. I see an athletic kid with bat speed, strong hands, and a manic style of play.

Michael: It seems like a lot of teams purposely keep their better prospects in Florida or warmer areas to start the minor league season. Is that something you would do as an executive of a cold weather team? Should players learn to play in the cold, or does it not really matter?
Klaw: If a player were ready developmentally for low-A, I’d send him to low-A and buy him a winter coat.

Ryan: What college program comes to mind first when you think of a staff that manages arms well?
Klaw: Vanderbilt. They produce big leaguers and they’ve had fewer guys get hurt (compared to the total volume of arms) than any other major program.

UGW: Taylor Hearn has unreal stuff, but iffy command. Future reliever?
Klaw: No question.

Mumford’s son: How do MLB teams deal with that one prospect whose father seems like a nut job? Are there teams that won’t consider him at all?
Klaw: Yes, and some teams will just hope the father will be isolated once the player signs and moves away from home.

Kay: Mets fan here. Would this be a good year to have a pair of later first rounders? No clear huge talents at the top of the draft, bit more depth?
Klaw: It’s a good year to have what they have, money and an extra pick or two. You can get creative.

Andy: To the person who was amazed by teams giving 5-6million for kids who have pitched 50-60 innings but maybe could do more, Darren O’Day will be paid $6m this season with a career high in IP at 69.
Klaw: Nice.

Niel: Do you think Mazara could be up in the big leagues for good? When Choo gets back, maybe Desmond slides to CF and Mazara moves to left?
Klaw: And bench DeShields? I think it makes the lineup better, but I don’t think the Rangers view DD as that dispensable.

Martin: Keith, I hear Greg Maddux is getting his pitching staff to chart previous game pitches? Surely with modern day scouting it’s a token gesture or do you see any value in it?
Klaw: It forces the pitchers to focus attention on the games. If I tell you to watch a game, you’re not bearing down as you would if you had to chart the game.

Rich: Does kaprielian have top 2 starter potential with added velocity?
Klaw: Yes, in theory, although I think it’s a little early to start revising anyone’s ceiling. It’s all hypothetical now anyway – it’s not like players are changing teams in April.

Andy: The issue with the Michael Reed in AAA thing, they aren’t even playing him in CF. Instead, they’re playing Eric Young.
Klaw: I did not notice that, but that’s awful. The biggest surprise I have had out of David Stearns’ tenure there is that he did not turn over the player development staff after he got the job.

Lindsay: I really like when you call people out on black-and-white issues, such as climate change and vaccines. But it bothers me–and you can correct me if I’m wrong–when you do this on non-black-and-white issues. On Twitter, you seemed to imply that being pro-life is anti-woman and that the abortion debate is easy. I have thought long and hard about abortion and still don’t truly know which side to fall on. It is a hard issue. I am a woman too and I don’t think being pro-life is anti-woman at all.
Klaw: Twitter is lousy for anything that isn’t black and white. Any time I’ve thought about scaling back my Twitter use, that’s been the main reason. (I dreamed last night I’d been off Twitter for several months. It seemed rather unreal.) In that discussion with a reader who rather openly advocated for Kasich, I pointed out that his policies as a whole and his anti-abortion stance in particular were not pro-woman. However, I do think that giving a woman the right to an abortion, which includes the right to choose never to have an abortion, is a woman’s rights issue. Attempts by largely male government bodies to deny them this right, then craft convoluted exceptions – as I pointed out to that user, if a woman says she was raped and wants an abortion, does she need paperwork? Does she have to wait for a conviction? – strike me, at least, as contrary to a basic sense of human rights for women.

Brook: Do you think the NCCA rule change enabling agents to officially negotiate on behalf of HS kids will have any material impact on the draft? I would like to think better representation will lead to increased bonuses for prospects, but with the allotment caps, I’m not sure where that money would come from.
Klaw: I think it’ll allow teams to better understand what players want financially and make predraft conversations more productive. I’m hoping we’ll also get fewer postdraft misunderstandings that scotch deals. Karsten Whitson was one, where, as far as I could reconstruct the matter, his father was telling the Padres one thing and the advisor another.

Kay: When drafting/ranking prospects, how much value is there in a high floor? There’s such a high failure rate for developing players, I imagine there’s value in having a “sure” bet for an average-above average player. How do you factor in high ceiling vs. low floor in your ranking?
Klaw: Good question that is impossible to answer in a clear, logical fashion, because the rankings themselves are subjective. I do a lot of pairwise comparisons, and think about whether i’d rather have what this player is likely to be, times some mental estimate of his probability, versus what this player is likely to be (or could be, if it’s a high-ceiling guy), times some mental estimate of that probability.

Eric: Hey Keith, great chat. Not going to hold you to it, but do you have a general idea in your head where Brandon McIllwain would’ve ranked in your draft top 50 if he stayed in H.S. for his senior baseball season?
Klaw: Thought he was a late first-rounder.

Amru: What’s the ceiling on Braxton Davidson? A Mitch Moreland-type player, or is that perhaps too optimistic? I know he’s consistently been younger than his competition, but have to worry some about the strikeouts.
Klaw: Needs to be more aggressive when he gets ahead in the count. Saw two hits today, then two strikeouts vs Swanson on bigger velocity. Think he has more upside than Moreland, but a long way to go to get there.

Tyler: True or False: Fredi Gonzalez is the Braves manager at the All Star break.
Klaw: True.

Casey: How likely do you think it is Alec Hansen drops to the 30’s? Might a team do something similar with him that the Royals did with Manaea?
Klaw: Yes, but I don’t know to what extent his issues are physical, and if teams will know ahead of time the way they knew Manaea needed hip surgery.

Martin: Have you managed to catch The Night Manager (Hugh Laurie) yet? If so, thoughts?
Klaw: Hasn’t aired here yet. First episode is Tuesday, I think.

Amru: Given your hectic schedule, how do you manage to find time to satisfy your voracious reading appetite? I swear it never seems like there’s enough time in the day to fit more than a couple chapters in.
Klaw: I bring a book with me wherever I go.

Corey: Benintendi has picked up where he left off, raking in Salem. How soon would you consider moving him to AA and at his current trajectory possible he’s in MLB by next season a la Conforto ? Speaking of Salem, best team in the minors ? crazy how much talent is there
Klaw: Conforto made the majors 12 months after he signed, so for Benintendi that would be this June. If they want that to happen, they have to have a quick trigger on a promotion to AA. I think he’ll be ready for that soon if not already.

Ridley Kemp: Aren’t you concerned about being labelled a “Social Justice Warrior” and getting on someone’s list?
Klaw: I’ve been labelled lots of things. Doesn’t bother me.

Ben: Quantrill to the A’s at 6, is that a probable outcome?
Klaw: He hasn’t pitched this year, so I’d say no. I’ve heard they’d love Senzel if he’s there.

Corey: Except that pro-life usually means pro-birth since that crowd doesn’t seem to care much about “life” after delivery.
Klaw: And the responsibility for that life falls disproportionately on the mother. I have thought about this, and read about it, for probably 20 years, trying to even craft a rational policy that restricts abortion (just as a thought exercise) without being internally illogical or structurally discriminatory. I haven’t found one.

ECinDC: Related to football players getting paid, which I think you support, what you you think should be done for baseball players? Seems to make sense that they should be able to go pro at any point if NCAA wants to continue to not pay.
Klaw: I agree. I think the “stay for three years” rule is stupid. Why is MLB helping college baseball? Does college baseball help MLB? In general, college coaches don’t develop players, and we have the constant conflict over pitcher use.

Fred Wilpon’s accountant: I went through your profile of the top 50 draft prospects and, admittedly I didn’t count them, but it seemed like there were quite a few names from colder weather states. This is not something I have paid attention to in the past so it may not be unusual but I expected fewer names from the north. Is it unusual or am I seeing something that is not there?
Klaw: It’s a weak year in SoCal and Texas.

Kay: For the record, I feel like you sometimes rub people the wrong way because you are very sure of your beliefs and don’t really budge to dissenting opinions. I’m cool with you have different feelings on subjects than I do – that’s kind of how discourse and debate work. I appreciate that you have very strongly held morals and beliefs.
Klaw: Thank you. I think this is also a function of Twitter, or just writing in general, because it often comes off as toneless (or readers infer the tone they want – if you like what I say, I’m being funny, if you dislike it, I’m being an asshole). In person, even when arguing Big Serious Topics, I don’t think I come off so harshly, although I guess I’ll leave that to the readers I’ve met over the years to verify or debunk.

Sean: Orphan Black. 4.14.2013. See you then.
Klaw: I assume you mean this week’s premiere … we’ll binge it this summer, since we whacked most of our cable subscriptions.

Michael: Like you, I wish college players in revenue sports would get paid. But I struggle to think of a method to actually do this. Should the best players receive signing bonuses out of high school? Surely, the field goal kicker shouldn’t make the same as the quarterback. How would you actually go about paying them?
Klaw: Market value with a preset minimum tied to revenue. QBs will get big money, Kickers would likely get the minimum.

Ryan: Still think Senzel in the top 5 is a bad move? Where do you stand on his future power?
Klaw: I’ve heard it’s more like 55 raw, but plays down in game. If I told you you could have an average defender at third with average power and an above-average hit tool, where would you take that? Is that peak Bill Mueller?

Adam: Will Bobby Dalbec have to pitch at the next level to be successful?
Klaw: He isn’t getting anywhere at the plate right now.

BD: At even the best NCAA baseball programs, most players are not on full scholarship correct? Or has that changed?
Klaw: I believe that’s correct.

Andy: While I realize that players determine somewhat, do laws like North Carolina’s HB2 mean that you may choose to not see someone live to avoid traveling to the state?
Klaw: If I have such discretion, yes, I would try to see those players elsewhere.

Drew: It strikes me as odd to bring up Kepler strictly as a 4th outfielder (injury replacement). I would rather he get regular AB’s with the hope that he hits his way to the everyday big league lineup by summer. Thoughts?
Klaw: I would too, but I’ll also wait and see how this plays out a bit. Perhaps they’re planning to send Buxton out sooner rather than later if the strikeouts continue.

Ridley Kemp: It boggles my mind that the very concept of probability was developed so late in the game. What’s the next science or math book on your radar?
Klaw: Brian Greene’s Elegant Universe.

Michael: As a pro-science person though, how do you reconcile the overwhelming scientific evidence that a zygote, for instance, is human and an entirely separate being from the mother? If you ignore the social aspects and just focus on the biological ones, it’s somewhat difficult to be pro-choice.
Klaw: Because this “overwhelming scientific evidence” does not exist.

Jeff: I know the team just made the World Series, but isn’t Terry Collins one of the worst possible managers to have on a team built on pitching? Maybe it’s just personal bias, but it seems like the man destroys arms, no? He has Henderson pitching today, his 5th appearance in 8 games, after he threw 35 pitches last night!
Klaw: Lot I don’t like about Collins, but I have never thought of him as a destroyer of arms.

Amru: So does this mean we can’t expect you to visit Asheville again anytime soon? A large majority of us Ashevillains hate and revile HB2.
Klaw: Actually never been there.

Jose G: Hey Keith, I know how much you hate comps but reading your acouting report on Kyle Lewis, I couldn’t help but think George Springer. What’s the likelihood that Lewis goes to the Braves at 3 for a discount?
Klaw: He’s not like Springer. Springer was way more physical at that age. Maybe the toolsiest college position player I’ve ever seen.

Pat: Like others, I don’t always agree with everything you say (talking SERIOUS issues, not baseball), but, appreciate your candor & firm beliefs. With that in mind, what is a “serious issue”, you don’t have a firm belief or something you go back & forth on? I’ll admit mine has always been abortion.
Klaw: I find drug legalization a complex one, although if asked to stake one position, I’m in favor of decriminalizing use. A lot of economics questions fall in the gray area for me, often because any new policy will create or change who wins and who loses. The minimum wage discussion we had here under Saturday’s stick to baseball post is a good example: I support higher minimum wages, but recognize they won’t benefit everyone, and feel like they’re being treated as a panacea when they’re really just shifting around some surpluses.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Baker > Collins.
Klaw: Can’t do that. Baker’s got a long history of mistakes.

Jake: Let’s just end all of the questions about who the Braves could take at #3 by asking this; who do you think the Braves take at #3?
Klaw: It depends on who goes 1 and 2!

Tim: Do you think Polanco will ever hit enough fly balls to homer 30 times a year? I’m just imagining some of those laser beams he hits off the PNC Park Wall turning into 450 foot bombs into the river……
Klaw: Yes. Certainly 25.

Jeb: Do you think that any new, effective pitches have yet to be discovered? I’d like to believe that someone could come up with a new way to spin and move a ball given all the possible permutations, but I’m guessing that given the limitations of the human arm/hand/wrist, we may have already tested everything.
Klaw: Inclined to think the latter. Just a guess.

Jeb: Have you tried any ramen places in NY?
Klaw: Only one, in Chelsea Market. I need to try more everything in NY. It’s a goal for 2016.

John: In the Cubs’ only loss so far, Maddon decided to let Strop pitch to Goldschmidt in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs and the tying run on third (Peralta on deck). Goldschmidt ended up knocking in the run, then Peralta got out. Maddon got some mild criticism for not calling for the IBB, but didn’t he make the right call? Over the long haul, isn’t it better to avoid the IBB (even with someone as good as Goldschmidt up) when the on deck hitter is also pretty good?
Klaw: Yes, and you usually want to avoid putting on another runner (and potential run), and to avoid reducing your pitcher’s margin for error if the IBB were to load the bases.

Ryan: Regarding the Kyle Lewis question earlier, would you have a problem with Atlanta taking him at 3 if they get him at less than the 4th pick’s slot?
Klaw: If Ray’s on the board I would not be a fan of this.

Martin: Austerity or debt fuelled stimulus?
Klaw: My problem – and I’m not that great on econ stuff – is that when we rack up debt during a recession to stimulate the economy, we kind of forget to pay it off when the economy is growing again.

JD: Mallex Smith didn’t make your Braves top-20+, so I don’t think I’ve seen you write about him. Thought?
Klaw: Can run, high contact guy, no power. Tough profile in this environment where similar low-power guys like Hamilton and Burns have had trouble making enough quality contact to be good hitters. Those two have contributed as defenders; I don’t have a good enough feel for Smith’s defense to say he might be that good. Also, Atlanta’s system is loaded.

Ryan: What kind of stat line do you project Corey Ray to put up in the big leagues? .280/.340 with 20 homers/20 steals?
Klaw: Yep, I could see that. I mentioned that he’s had issues with lefties this year, but I should have qualified that that’s from scouts saying he doesn’t see them well; he actually has no real platoon split on the season as a whole.

His dopey manager: Does Syndergaard have the best stuff in the big leagues?
Klaw: Kershaw’s still got that title for me.

Jeb: Totto’s Hell’s Kitchen location is awesome. Terrible lines, but the ramen is excellent.
Klaw: I’ve waited in line at Franklin BBQ with @lana so I’m not afraid of a little wait.

JD: Played Patchwork yet? Delightful two-player game, seems like something your daughter might enjoy based on how you’ve described her gaming tastes.
Klaw: Yep, reviewed it about this time last year. App is good too if you can get past the cutesy graphics.

mets: Collins just put in Henderson after he threw a career high last night and predictably he loads the bases with no outs. wtf!
Klaw: Isn’t he just back from shoulder surgery too? I hope I’m thinking of the wrong guy.

Joe: Not a draft question – how often, if at all, is the baseline of “replacement player” adjusted? Who makes that decision? Is there consensus on what constitutes replacement level or do different organizations/publications use their own standards?
Klaw: When asked to open that particular box, Pandora said, “Fuck it.”

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you for jumping up a day with me. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week. I’ll also have a short column on the minors’ best Opening Day rosters for prospects out on Friday, plus other blog posts coming in the next couple of days.

Comments

  1. My argument to end the vaccine/autism debate is one sentence. The rate of autism is vaccinated vs unvaccinated children is the same.

    • Amen. Sadly, the people who need convincing won’t be convinced by such foolish things as facts, data, and proof.

  2. I read The Elegant Universe last summer. Some of it definitely went over my head, but overall I found it really fascinating. Every time I read a book about physics it makes me wish I didn’t drop high school physics after a week because I had the most boring teacher imaginable. Anyway, I’m interested to hear your thoughts!

  3. Doug Thompson

    Ivy League Schools all pay to play. Join the club, play along and snick your nose in the trough when finished. Education quality is very very poor in most cases, but that irrelevant.

    • Not quite sure what you’re saying here, but most Ivy League schools now don’t charge tuition for families earning less than $60-80K a year. That’s not a “scholarship” but it makes the school much more accessible to lower-income students, which may include athletes.

    • And precisely where did your vast experience in the quality of Ivy Leaguers’ education come from, Mr. Thompson?

  4. Yes, Home Run Baker is slightly better than Jimmy Collins

  5. Doug Thompson

    keith law supports ted cruz because they both went to harvard. now i get it.

    • I don’t support Ted Cruz, and he went to Princeton, not Harvard.

    • I’m confused that people will support each other just because they are alumni of the same institution. Do Ted Cruz and Ralph Nader then support each other since they both went to Princeton and Harvard Law?

  6. Doug Thompson

    Princeton and Harvard same diff. both pay to play clubs. he went to Harvard Law School. Its all paid off very handsomely.

    • 1. No, they are not “same diff” or the same. There is no kinship between Harvard and Princeton, any more than there is between Harvard and Duke or Harvard and the University of Virginia.

      2. Harvard Law School is a completely separate institution from Harvard College, where I went. Again, there is no kinship. We would never see each other as classmates or fellow alumni.

      3. You are coming off as increasingly unhinged with your personal attacks here.

    • Doug,

      Your desperation is embarrassing.

    • Perhaps Doug has been spending too much time at Olive Garden …

  7. Well, Keith, I regret I had to miss the chat yesterday but I need to react to something: Anyone who stands in line for Franklin BBQ is making a mistake. Even in @lana’s company. Like all of Texas Monthly’s “best BBQ” places, it’s highly overrated. Come to Fort Worth.

  8. Doug Thompson

    Harvard law school is a professional graduate school of Harvard University. Integral to each other. Other Ivy League schools such as Princeton and Yale not different in any real way. Thus same diff. Indoctrination into American gentry. If one is looking for a materially comfortable life it is the perfect institution it is a great choice. If one is looking for an education – well not so much.

  9. Grover Jones

    Corey seemed to paint pro-lifers with a broad brush. This is a good summary I just saw of being pro-life all the way through:

    http://www.ligonier.org/learn/articles/holistically-pro-life/

    • Thank you for sharing that. As i’m not anti-abortion, and find it impossible to craft a position like that that I personally find logically consistent, this was a helpful read.