Klawchat, 6/10/16.

Insiders can see my my first-round recap now, and I’ll continue writing throughout the day.

Klaw: One good day of the week and I’ll be up again. Klawchat.

Andrew: What is Thaiss’ position? Seems like the Angels reached (surprise surprise) but is the hope that he can get to the majors quickly in hopes of contributing in that 2018-2020 timeframe before the Trout window slams shut?
Klaw: Catcher who won’t stay there, so I think first base. Fast mover with the bat. Need to see the power going forward. I liked him, mostly because so many people praised the hit tool (I saw him just OK). Feel like he’s high-floor but perhaps more average regular than star?

Kyle: Dylan Carson a reach at 33?
Klaw: I thought so.

Banksy_: Whats the new story on Groome, what got him to 12? Is there a good chance he balks at their offer and he goes to Chippola?
Klaw: I’m sure he’ll say that and will ultimately sign. Slot there is $3.2 million. He’d be an all-time idiot to turn that down – the left-handed Matt Harrington, if you will. (Was Matt Harrington right-handed? I don’t even know. Not like I ever saw him pitch.)

N: Which Kieboom has a better long term outlook and by how much
Klaw: Carter is a regular, above-average most likely. Spencer is probably a good backup catcher with a chance to start occasionally.

Greg: You don’t draft for need and I understand that. But when there is a system like Atlanta with only Swanson and Albies projecting to be above average hitters, don’t you have to start taking hitters at some point? I’m not mad as a Braves fan, I’m just trying to figure out how this team is going to score any runs when they’re trying to compete a few years from now.
Klaw: If the draft is loaded with high school pitchers, don’t force it to give you a college hitter. They loaded up on the draft’s strength.

N: If Dunning were kept a reliever, which I know he’s not, how close would he be to MLB-ready at signing?
Klaw: This year. But I agree, it’s a waste of his talent.

Jamie S.: How did the Mets do in your mind? Seems like BPA all the way through (and that’s perfectly fine to me).
Klaw: Loved the first three picks – mentioned them in my round two recap (which posted after you wrote this question).

Sean: Will the Giants drafting of Reynolds affect their ability to draft more expensive players?
Klaw: If it does, so what? They got a first-round talent in the second round. I’d be ecstatic.

Nick: Can Zack Burdi be transitioned into a starter, or does remain in the bullpen fulltime?
Klaw: I know some scouts thought he could start but I believe the White Sox want to use him in relief.

Nick: Appears Tim Anderson will be called up, does he make an immediate offensive impact and can he keep up defensively at ss?
Klaw: Very skeptical of his ability to make an offensive impact given his plate discipline. Great prospect, most likely not ready today.

Jeff: Hi Keith. What are the makeup concerns about Groome? Is it serious stuff or 17-yr. old immaturity stuff?
Klaw: To me it’s immaturity and idiocy. No violence, no felonies, not a sociopath. I am more concerned about Delvin Perez’s makeup than Groome’s.

Chris: Were teams that concerned about Perez, who you had as high as three at one point, by the PED test? At 17, I guess I think it’d be hard to imagine that PEDs were the main driving force behind his production. What do you think his ceiling is as a player?
Klaw: He showed up this year with more power (oops) and running faster (who knows?). Still a potential ++ defender with bat speed. But I think the PED results confirm earlier concerns about makeup and work ethic.

Nick: Does Nolan Jones sign at 55?
Klaw: I assume anyone taken in the top three rounds will sign if he passes a physical. Most of these picks involve deals or conversations around money before the selection. (Not all, but most.)

Sam: Did Jose Miranda drop out of the top 100 for an interesting reason?
Klaw: No, he was literally #101, took him off when I added Will Smith to the middle of the list when I suddenly got a slew of positive reports on Smith. I like Miranda a lot as a hitter, think he has to move to 3b.

Anonymous: What round do you think Lasky (Haddon Heights, NJ) will end up being drafted? What about Tyler Mondile? Excited to see several south jersey guys in your top 100.
Klaw: I believe Laskey ends up at Duke. He’s not getting $2-3 million after his velocity tailed off at the end. He’ll be a guy to watch for 2019. It’s the fourth round right now which I believe is Mondile territory.

sean: I believe you had Justin Dunn ranked 15, do you feel he’s someone who can get to the Mets bullpen in late 2017 and be a starter in 2018? He’s young, 21 in September, but he seems like a player who is rapidly rising and making the proper adjustments, at least at the college level. Thanks
Klaw: He’s a starter, now and in the future.

Nick: Does Rutherford sign or go to UCLA for two years and re-enter the Draft in 2018?
Klaw: Again, I assume they all sign. Slot at 18 is $2.5 million. Maybe they go over. He does have big leverage due to his age but that’s a lot of coin to turn down.

Nick: Who are some guys that will be taken today or tomorrow because of signability issues that could be 1st rounders in 2019?
Klaw: Hunter Bishop, Jeff Belge, maybe Drew Mendoza (I see a lot of swing and miss, I know scouts who love the power and body), Ryan Rolison, Tyler Baum (totally unsignable, I’m told). Might have said Mason Thompson but the Padres took him.

Banksy_: What level does Quantrll start at? Have to think theres an innings limit with him for a while too, right?
Klaw: I assume he comes back this summer and pitches in short-season in brief outings as if he’s continuing his rehab. Wouldn’t be wrong to hold him out till instructs.

Jimincanow: Do you think the Phillies have picked right in the first 2 rounds?
Klaw: I think they picked well. It’s not exactly who I would have taken, but that doesn’t make it wrong.

Drew: People’s reaction to MLB draft picks is insane, right? There were Twins fans upset that they took Kirilloff at 14, pretty much right where he was ranked in most rankings I saw. So they add their own “scouting” and say it was a terrible pick when there is next to zero chance any of them saw him take one swing. It’s like saying you hate Indian food if you’ve never tried, only ever heard of Indian food.
Klaw: So you’re saying it’s like a 7-year-old kid’s reaction? “I hate squid.” “You’ve never tried squid.” “Yeah but I know I’ll hate it.”

Jim: Hi Keith- How often are the major league coaches consulted when considering picks? Specifically, do you think the White Sox showed Cooper some video of Alec Hansen and asked if he could iron out his control issues?
Klaw: If there’s a coach who’s exceptional like Cooper is, yes, that’s common, and makes sense because ultimately it’ll be that coach’s project – maybe not a major league coach but a minor league coordinator. I know there are also some folks like Scioscia and Showalter who more or less insist on being involved in the process. I’m not a big fan of that myself.

David: Hi Keith, I love your work. I would love to see teams trade draft picks. My question: As a Pirates man, how much should I worry about Will Craig’s struggles in the Cape Cod league?
Klaw: A lot. I think it made him a reach at 22. Same reason I don’t think JB Woodman was worth a top three rounds pick, and the Jays took him in the second.

John: How far does Funkhouser fall? 104 possible?
Klaw: Well he went 115 to Detroit (shocker, they took a Boras guy), so there you go. Bad situation for him – he should have signed last year.

Andrew: Is it possible Dane Dunning’s stock was artificially lowered just by the depth of the Florida rotation. IOW, could u have seen a world where Dunning was on a different college team, flourished, and would have been a top 5 pick? A gem hidden in Florida’s pen? Or do you think he ends up a reliever anyway?
Klaw: He’s a starter and yes, he might have gone higher had he been a starter all year. But he was never overused (thank you, Sully) and did get scouted a ton because people were always there to see the umpteen other Gators worth drafting, so net/net I don’t think he fared badly.

Chris: Not impressed with the Puk at #6. Too many red flags there…lumbering, unathletic, inconsistent this spring, walks too many guys. Yes he throws hard, yes he has a good slider, but I’m seeing Drew Pomeranz 2.0. What say you?
Klaw: You mentioned all the negatives and I think they’re generally true. I also think his lower half and upper half aren’t well synced up in the delivery. He’s also 6’6″, 93-97, with a good changeup, average breaking ball, and good extension out front. Those dudes don’t grow on trees and if you don’t take that at pick 6 you might never get one another way.

Chris: Which of these do you think needs to happen first: international draft, tradeable draft picks, or eliminating the tie between the draft and free agency?
Klaw: The last one is the most important, the first one is the most likely.

Sean A: Brewers have already said they plan to develop Ray as a CF. Chances of him sticking their and will that increase his duration in the minors?
Klaw: I think that’s the smart move. Maybe 30-40% chance he sticks there. Average defense in center makes him a frequent all-star.

Jackson: I understand that I know nothing about this. I do, really. But I watch college ball….and why did some of these late first roundteams take some of these pitchers before Dakota Hudson (e.g. Nats taking Dane Dunning). Hard to wrap mind around.
Klaw: Lot of folks think Hudson’s delivery makes him a reliever in time. Also think his fastball can get very straight. If you believe in the cutter, he’s a first-rounder.

Pioneer: Keith, thanks as always for the chat. Do you feel that AJ Puk’s workload was more a function of his command issues, or O’Sullivan just having such a deep staff that he could spread the innings around? I was surprised that he fell to my A’s, but he definitely doesn’t seem to be a fast-tracker.
Klaw: He had the back spasms, and a couple of times didn’t pitch well enough to go deep into games. He did hold his velocity into the 7th when I saw him last.

Josh: Liked the Sedlock pick but didn’t realize the manner in which Illinois used him this year. Still a future starter/how risky is he?
Klaw: Future starter, but the O’s have to back off him this year. Also, Illinois misused Jay last year and misused Sedlock. When schools do this, recruits need to pay attention.

Scott: I didn’t see Chatham in your top 100. Does he have the potential to be a prospect or was that more an overdraft so they can save some money to sign Groome?
Klaw: I thought he was a 4th-5th rounder. Can’t stay at short, questionable hit tool. Utility infielder in long run.

Zach: So it seems as if Austin Meadows took his removal from your top 25 very personally. His line since then? .429/.456/.889. Safe to say he’s snapped out of his post injury rusty phase? Also, please remove Tyler Glasnow from your ranking so he can start to really kick ass. You clearly have that kind of power, Keith.
Klaw: He wasn’t “removed” so much as passed by guys who were healthy and off to better starts.

Jeff (CT): Thoughts on Yankees second round pick, Nick Solak? I’m surprised they didn’t take a pitcher in this round.
Klaw: Sort of a scouts’ favorite, good ballplayer without big tools, but I thought more 3rd-4th round.

Bret: It seems like most online consensus is that the Jays could have done better than Zeuch, but they obviously don’t see it that way, of course. What do they see in him that justifies the #21 pick?
Klaw: Big size, fastball comes right down at you, flashes an above average breaking ball. I wasn’t on it up there – would have taken Kay before him, for example.

Wally: You nailed the Nats two picks at the end of the 1st round, which is like a 90′ putt. Is that one of the porganizations that you feel like you have good contacts/relationship, or was it a SWAG? What did you think of their Day 1 picks?
Klaw: I seldom get info like that direct from an organization about its own picks, and did not here. Really, really liked their day one. Hell, I like their day two so far too.

Banksy_: Is AJ Preller just taking kids that already have 1 TJ out of the way already, or is there actually a rhyme to his reason…yo?
Klaw: Both guys were, in theory, talented enough to go higher if healthy.

JeffT: How much should a team take into account “make-up” when dealing with a 17 yo? I mean who is the person (for better or worse) at 23 than 17?
Klaw: It matters more than you think. You’re handing the kid six or seven figures, then asking him to go be a professional, with all the responsibilities of conditioning, work ethic, discipline, and behavior that many people don’t encounter until they’re 19 or 21 or 23.

Ben: Hello from Taiwan, Keith! Love your work. Why did Rutherford fall so much? Is there any red flags or concerns other than signability? In terms of signability of Rutherford, how much is too much?
Klaw: I think signability and the fact that he turned 19 a month ago, making him an older high school player (and in a demographic that hasn’t fared well historically).

James: What do you think of the Rangers’ first two picks? I’m surprised Speas was still there in the second
Klaw: I’m not. Great arm and body, with 20 command.

Peter: I know from yesterday’s chat you weren’t expecting any of the college bats to be available for the Mariners, but how surprised are you that Lewis slipped to 11? And does Lewis become the M’s top prospect in the system once he signs?
Klaw: I had him ranked 10th, so I think it’s the right spot, but I thought others liked him more. He does swing and miss too much and I do not agree that he’s a lock to stay in center.

Nick: What’s Cole Stobbe’s ceiling?
Klaw: Ceiling probably above average regular at third. I thought he was somewhere in the 101-120 ranking area, but really at that point in the draft anything plus or minus a round is within range.

Brian: Do you think Anderson was the BPA on the Braves board at 3? Or was he simply the best combo of talent & cost? If it’s the latter, do you feel like the Braves got enough talent with their subsequent picks to justify not taking BPA at 3?
Klaw: I thought he was really good, moved him up to 7th on my final board after hearing his velocity was all the way back on Saturday. I think they probably felt they were getting BPA anyway but at a discount relative to slot at 3. I had a couple of guys above him, but again, my word is not definitive, and in this draft in particular a couple of spots in the rankings is essentially nothing.

John: If you’re the Rockies, the best case scenario is grab all the power arm prospects you can, hope you hit on a few and if they do succeed deal them at their peak for more prospects. You’ll never have a long term successful pitcher here. correct?
Klaw: I’m not that pessimistic. I think you draft power arms because that’s the only way you’re ever going to have enough pitching to compete. But if the draft gives you Brendan Rodgers or David Dahl (to say nothing of second-rounder Nolan Arenado … my God that was a good pick), take him. Don’t force the arm.

mike: can you explain the reason what the catch-all term “character concerns” is so often used (e.g. Groome) and what those concerns are are not actually reported by anyone? Is it respect for kid’s privacy or something else
Klaw: Because lawyers. I know what’s up with Groome – I did some background work of my own to check on some of the rumors (nearly all of which turned out to be false … for example, he was not kicked out of IMG). But I can’t say exactly what I know because ESPN has editorial standards for reporting and I abide by those.

Justin: For a guy like Connor Jones, is it worth the Cardinals trying to fix his delivery but risking making him a less effective pitcher?
Klaw: He’s not very effective right now. Fix the delivery and see if he starts throwing harder and/or with more sink.

Will: About how many prospects from this draft do you think go into the top 100?
Klaw: Maybe a dozen? Depends on promotions but we seem to be losing a lot of kids to the majors already.

Tom: Seems like the pirates are having a pretty crappy draft. Thoughts on what they’ve done so far?
Klaw: well I would never use that word, but I’m not a fan of the first few picks. Lodolo is interesting but he’s a very long-term development project – I thought he might be a top guy for 2019 instead.

Brian: Keith, the Red Sox selected Florida’s closer, Shaun Anderson, in round 3, mlb.com suggests he could be made a starter. But for this year, is he someone that the Sox could put in the big league pen this year and then try him as a starter in the minors next? Is that bad for his development? Is he even good enough to consider that? Thanks a lot.
Klaw: I don’t think he can be a starter. It’s not outrageous, but I think he’s a pen guy, and I’d do what you suggest – move him quick to AA or AAA and see what happens.

Kyle: Keith, if Dalton Jeffries can recover his health, do you think he was a steal?
Klaw: Maybe. He has a real shoulder issue, so he has to pass the physical first, and then see if the injury recurs or affects his velocity. This isn’t minor. Before that he might have been a top 10 pick, although I think that was a little rich for a smallish RHP without huge stuff.

Matt: Almarez for the Phillies said that Moniak can be a 70 defense 70 hit and hit between 15-22 home runs when he hits the big leagues. What do you think?
Klaw: Apparently I went to see the wrong kid.

Alex in Austin: With Wentz and Jones going in the 2nd, any chance they go to Cville or will they sign overslot?
Klaw: Signing. I’d bet anything those kids both had deals in place.

RollWave: Tulane alum here. Saw both Alemais (Pirates) and Rogers (Astros) were both recently taken within a few picks of each other. Any thoughts on these guys? Seems like Rogers as a defense-first catcher should at least have a chance of panning out.
Klaw: Extra guys – good shot at big leagues, doubt either becomes a regular.

John: Who the heck is Alex Call?
Klaw: He should have been the first pick so Call could have let the day begin.

Joe: Was Benson a huge reach for you?
Klaw: Sort of … for tools, body, intelligence, he’s a top 10 guy. The swing is a zero right now. They’ll have to rebuild it. They have the technology, though.

Brad: Hey Keith, long time reader and supporter of yours. I wanted to ask for advice for breaking into the baseball business. Occupying my free time researching/learning/studying baseball has made up most of my life and I think I’d be great in the biz. About a year ago, I passed on an internship with the Yankees after blindly reaching out and talking some with David Grabiner who was impressed with some of my thoughts. As baseball requires more and more of an analytics driven decision making process, would an MBA in data analytics help propel me into a good full time type of position? How would you best suggest breaking in as a mid-20 currently working in mechanical engineering?
Klaw: My understanding is that the big hiring now is people with extensive work and/or education in data mining fields – machine learning, signal processing, etc.

Justin: Where did you have Zac Gallen?
Klaw: Fourth-fifth rounds.

Josh: Any info on Mason Thompson (drafted in the 3rd by the Padres)?
Klaw: I’d been told he was a likely top ten pick for 2019 and was a difficult sign this year as a kid out with TJ who had seven-figure expectations.

Hinkie: Can Kevin Gowdy eventually be a top of the rotation pitcher, or his ceiling more of a 2 or 3.
Klaw: More like a 2/3, but still a good pick.

JG: In most of the prospect descriptions for catchers, many do not expect the actual player to stay at catcher. Is Ben Rortvedt the guy that can?
Klaw: I have been told no shot. He’s a hitter. I saw Lux this spring but not Rortvedt (I guess that was the right call since Lux went in the first).

Jacob: Scouting reports suggest Kirilloff may be a solid player but nothing spectacular. Anything in his game that suggests he could be something more?
Klaw: Power is much more. That’s your upside there.

Theo: Could Riley Pint pitch in the majors in a bullpen right now if needed? I know the Rockies don’t need him now, but if they were in a playoff hunt would that change? 102 is 102
Klaw: No. He’d walk too many guys.

addoeh: Are you just working on adrenaline at this point? When do you open a good bottle of rum and just relax?
Klaw: Adrenaline and some caffeine. Probably won’t really relax till the recaps are done this weekend.

Mike M: Luhnow takes a tall RHP with so-so velo and little projection (Whitley), a fringe prospect corner bat (Dawson), and a college catcher who can’t hit a lick (Rogers). Fair to say the Astros have underwhelmed so far?
Klaw: Whitley does not have “so-so velo.” He’s got a plus FB and flashes a plus CB. He has little projection because he’s already built like a big leaguer. I think you’re really unfair on that pick. The other two I’m with you.

Matt: I know you’re not a huge fan of player comparisons, but is Moniak’s upside something along the lines of Christian Yelich with better defense? He’s maybe the only guy I can think of in MLB with a 70 hit and 40 power.
Klaw: I think Yelich had a had a better pure hit tool at that age.

Mike: How far will Matt Krook fall ?
Klaw: Gone in the 4th. Another guy who has to pass his physical first – Miami flunked him in high school, then he had TJ.

Stephen: At what round in the draft do teams’ draft boards start to greatly diverge? That is, at what point do guys get taken that other teams aren’t in on at all? Or to put it another way, at what point does a team not get concerned at all that their next selection will be taken in the pick or two before they draft?
Klaw: I think we’re already at that point now. Probably somewhere in the third round boards really start to part where you get other teams taking guys you had in the 6-10 round range.

CJ: As a Cards fan (and a Puerto Rican) I’m ecstatic that the Cards nabbed Perez. Are you in the “he shouldn’t be rewarded with a first round pick because he cheated” camp, or the “He’s not a rich prep player like a lot of these other high schoolers and should be given the benefit of the doubt.” Thanks Keith!
Klaw: I’m in the “take the player you think is the best as long as he’s not violent or a felon” camp.

Robert: Regarding the Tigers selection of Manning. you mentioned Detroit has a history of developing players like him, tall athletic power arms. Outside of Verlander who have they developed in the minors? Thanks.
Klaw: Might have been Eric who said that. I love the pick, though. Big, athletic, up to 98, needs to switch to a traditional curveball grip from a spike. They haven’t taken anyone like him since Jacob Turner.

Aaron C.: Thanks for your “anti-lazy comp” policy, man. While I appreciate the work that MLB Network does in bringing the draft to the fans, they do quite a disservice when folks like Harold Reynolds are throwing out uninformed comps left n’ right.
Klaw: The same-race (or even guy who looks like this other guy) comps are insulting. The hell does that matter? Ray Lankford peaked as a guy with 20+ HR, 20+ SB, reaching 30 in each category at least once, with good OBPs and somewhat high K rates. I think that’s Corey Ray’s ceiling. I wouldn’t care if one of them was from Kyrgyzstan and the other from Darkest Peru.

Jay: Bo Bichette seems like a great pick at 66. Does he have highest upside of Blue Jays draft picks so far?
Klaw: Yes, that’s my favorite relative to draft position of theirs. I wonder if people worried because the brother has been so bad, and Bo used to have a terrible setup/load for his swing. He’s cleaned it up, and he’s a better athlete than Dante Jr.

James: My favorite part of the draft was when Tommy Lasorda comes out to announce the Dodgers pick, looks lost, then goes – “I’m Tommy Lasorda”. Think MLB could announce the person who was announcing the pick for the team.
Klaw: I thought he looked awful as he was helped up to the podium and started to speak so slowly, but then he cracked the “stay awake, fellas!” line like it was still 1980. I’m not even a fan of Lasorda’s, but that was a great moment.

Chris: Kevin Maitan would’ve been selected at what pick last night?
Klaw: Not very high. 16 years old, never faced any real competition. How do you compare that to Moniak or Rutherford?

FG: From what you hear, is there any concern that the Yankees won’t sign Rutherford? Or will they need to manage pool money properly . Thanks for your work Klaw.
Klaw: My guess is they’ll go under slot a few times and work it out.

James: Whenever a tall pitcher was picked in the first round the analysts kept saying that tall pitchers take more time in the minors because their deliveries are harder to repeat/control. Is this true?
Klaw: I think that’s true for VERY tall pitchers – 6’6″ and up, say. And the pool of those guys isn’t that big to begin with.

Amy: Wait, why does Rutherford’s age give him leverage?
Klaw: Because he’ll be eligible for the draft again in 2018 if he goes to college, rather than 2019 for most HS kids.

Troubled (Cincinnati): I see why you don’t like doing comps. Ctrent had a great tweet last night about MLB’s coverage, to hear the non-scouts (Mayo, Callis, Manual) talk, every player drafted last night was either an All-Star or a Hall of Famer. The coverage was hard to stomach because of it.
Klaw: That’s an inherent problem with any league broadcasting its own draft, unfortunately. For example, Sanchez and Carlson were both reaches in the first round. Would MLB be OK with Mayo saying, “that’s a huge reach,” or, worse, “I think that’s a terrible pick?” Probably not, and it’s their right to say, hey, this is a big marketing event for us too, let’s not bash the product. So I hear you, and to some extent I agree with you (this ain’t Lake Wobegon and these kids aren’t all above average), but there’s a COI here that’s not going away.

Adam: Would you say that two-sport guys, such as Matt Manning, have higher untapped potential as they’ve not solely focussed on baseball year round? As I Tigs fan I was expecting a hard throwing pitcher, I’m not sure if I should be excited about Manning or not.
Klaw: I think the new thinking is that their arms will be in better shape due to the long layoff from pitching. For position players i’m not as sold on the idea.

Jerry: Do you think Jared Horn priced himself out of the first couple of rounds, or were there some performance issues that have led to him slipping closer and closer to being in Berkeley for school later this summer?
Klaw: I think the money was one thing and the delivery (max effort, reliever all the way) may have been another. Some teams were just out on him for the second reason.

Josh: Who is Joseph Lucchesi? Preller seems to be making a lot of under-slot picks. Where is all of that money going?
Klaw: That’s Joey Lucchesi, who was worn out like a damn dishrag at their conference tournament after leading D1 in strikeouts during the season. Quality senior sign. I hope we’re not lamenting an injury to him a year from now. Probably helps go to pay Lawson and Thompson. I wonder if Lake Bachar is a deal too – junior but D3 kid without projection.

Nathan: I enjoy reading your work Keith. Are Robert Tyler and Ben Bowden starters at the major league level or better suited for bullpen roles?
Klaw: I think you send both out as starters, but if you asked me to bet $100 on each I’d say relief for both.

Joe: Not sure if you saw but Dylan Bundy hit 97 on his fastball and was sitting at 95. Reason to be optimistic or is there still too many unknowns at this point?
Klaw: He has calcification in his shoulder. We’re a long way from being optimistic on that disaster.

BK: Bichette stated in an intvw last night that he turned down 4 offers prior to the Jays because he didn’t like the fit. Have you heard similar? That seems quite odd to me.
Klaw: I had heard interest in him starting in the 30s, but don’t know of any specific deals. It’s not like he grew up poor so he had that luxury.

Joe: Hey Keith, How much longer until Ray Montgomery is a GM? His past 2 drafts in Milwaukee have been excellent and he seems to be well regarded in MLB circles. Thanks
Klaw: I thought he’d get more of a shot at the job in Milwaukee, but that process appeared to be over before it started. He should be on a lot of teams’ short lists for the next opening.

Joe: Knowing what you know would you have taken Groome with a top 3 pick?
Klaw: Yes, I would have. I might have handled him differently post-draft than other prospects, but so what? If you find a talented kid with a drinking problem, but no history of violence, abuse, destructive behavior, etc., you might still draft and sign him, but have EA people in place with him, avoid certain environments, etc. That’s the cost of developing players to me.

Harvey: Do you think that 40 rounds every year is too many? Must be like throwing darts after 10 rounds, right?
Klaw: I stop paying attention after round 11. Really after the top 5 rounds the significant prospects are mostly gone – players who emerge after that, like Goldschmidt, were known but just underrated by the entire industry – and round 11 matters because it’s the first round after the bonus pool rounds.

Tom: What’s wrong with the word “crappy”?
Klaw: If I say a draft is “crappy,” imagine the reaction from that scouting director or GM (I know most of them well) when he sees that? Hi, yeah, I did call your draft crappy, but I meant it in the nicest possible way…

Brian: Keith, back to the character question. This is not a criticism, I do understand your answer; but how is it better to say a kid has character issues and then just leave it there? It’s not your responsibility but people’s minds’ due tend to run to worst case and they could be thinking the kid is a Johnny Maziel level type alcoholic/woman abuser when it could be he shows up late a lot and may be a little lazy. I guess the question is, why say anything at all?
Klaw: How do I explain why a Jason Groome goes 12th when he came into the spring at 1 on most lists (mine included)?

Steve: Thoughts on Jordan Sheffield? No 2/3 starter ceiling or more of a power reliever?
Klaw: Power reliever for me. Short RHP with lightning arm but lacks command or plane for starting.

KoolMoeRip: Thoughts on O’s draft. Liking Hays in the 3rd a lot-looks like good value
Klaw: 3rd/4th rounder there. Appropriate spot for him.

Alex: A friend who is a novice baseball fan asked me about Perez. Without giving him details on scouting grades, etc.. Is Lindor a decent comp?
Klaw: No, Lindor was a WAY more advanced hitter at the same age. Plus Lindor had 80 makeup and Delvin has not 80 makeup.

Brian: is Bobby Dalbec going to be able hit professional pitching? seems like a bad pick for Boston.
Klaw: Where they took him (4th) was fair. Huge power, maybe 80 power, too much swing and miss. Fourth round expected value is near zero, so rolling the dice on a kid who might only have a 5% chance of clicking but is a solid #6 hitter if he does work out is reasonable. Also, while I like some players more than others, it’s a little hard to make a “bad” pick by this point in the draft.

Kyle: Odd question but a 40 round draft would by definition at add at least 40 new players to an org. Does this mean +/-40 other players are usually out of a job every year around this time?
Klaw: Not an odd question but bear in mind lots of those picks don’t sign. I think usually 800-900 guys sign a year? Mayo or Callis would actually be better people to ask on that. But those signees fill out the GCL/AZL rosters and some of the short-season rosters.

Bob: Then I assume you would have been more vague about referencing Perez’s PED use if it had not already leaked all over place.
Klaw: I was still vague even when I knew for a fact that he’d tested positive. I still know more about it than I’ve said (as does everyone else, I’m not that special). But I spoke to our news desk about how to couch it and that’s what you’re getting from me.

Harrisburg Hal: Good rums…I’ve had a couple of the Appleton Estate varieties…what is your favorite (not more than $50/bottle)?
Klaw: I have Brugal Viejo in the house right now and it’s a damn fine rum. It will be used this weekend.

Klaw: That’s all for this week as I have a lot of writing to do, but thank you all for the questions today and yesterday, for reading all of my content and Eric’s too, and for your support and readership throughout the year. Look for those team by team draft recaps over the weekend.

Comments

  1. What are your general thoughts on how the Braves used their first 4 picks so far?

  2. Hey Keith, long time reader and supporter of yours. I wanted to ask for advice for breaking into the baseball business. Occupying my free time researching/learning/studying baseball has made up most of my life and I think I’d be great in the biz. About a year ago, I passed on an internship with the Yankees after blindly reaching out and talking some with David Grabiner who was impressed with some of my thoughts. As baseball requires more and more of an analytics driven decision making process, would an MBA in data analytics help propel me into a good full time type of position? How would you best suggest breaking in as a mid-20 currently working in mechanical engineering?

  3. Thanks, Keith!

  4. Brad, Logan,

    We should start our own chat down here.

    Prop up a couple of lawn chairs….

    Pop open up a couple of Lone Stars…..

    ….and RANT against the 1 Percenters in the actual chat box with their sophisticated usernames and their answered questions!

Trackbacks

  1. […] I like the first four picks, a lot.  Keith Law liked the Nats first couple of days too.    I like the focus on hitters after years of focus on arms.  I like the underrated pick up of […]