Klawchat 1/28/16.

Klaw: Birth, school, work, Klawchat, death.

Marshall: Do you think Gallo will ever figure out his contact issues, or he destined to become a sort of uber-Mark Reynolds type of player?
Klaw: I think where I’ve got him ranked implies that I think he’ll make more than enough contact, although I talk about it quite a bit in the player capsule. So without spoiling too much, I’ll say I think he’ll more a lot more than a Reynolds type – he’s still really young, and he’s a much more athletic kid than a lot of folks realize because he’s so freaking big.

Jackie: What penalty would you give the Cardinals for the hacking fiasco? It hasn’t to be more than just a punishment, it has to be a deterrent to the other teams against committing a similar felony, right?
Klaw: Well I would think jail was a sufficient deterrent, and I’m somewhat loath to start tagging the entire team for what may have been the acts of a single, rogue employee. (Of course, it’s possible he wasn’t acting alone, in which case, drop the hammer, Rob.)

Chris: Hey Keith, sorry if this is a dumb question, but I’m just curious how the whole “reimbursing high school signees for college tuition” works? Do you have to play a certain amount of time in pro ball? Can you only use that tuition money at certain schools? I think it’s really cool that teams do this and I just wanted to learn more, figured you could give a better, streamlined answer than anyone else
Klaw: Not a dumb question. You don’t have to play a certain amount of time, and you can use it to attend any school, even one different from the one you left to play pro ball. It’s why signing out of HS is the right move the vast majority of the time, no matter what some coach says on twitter about the “experience.” In my life, I’ve discovered that you can buy a lot of great experiences with money.

James: Who would you take number one overall in the draft?
Klaw: I have not seen Alec Hansen yet so I can’t really answer. I think the decision set should include Groome, Perez, presumably Hansen, and … man, that ended quick. I’ve seen Puk a lot and don’t think he’s 1-1 on merit, although the Phils could also choose to do a deep discount there and overspend later on.

Anonymous: How you doing?
Klaw: I’m not dead, so that’s good. Fever is gone and while I don’t still need the inhaler it’s helping. I don’t know what I had but I basically lost a week to it.

Tim: Hey Keith, hope you’re feeling better. Spring training is around the corner – and with it everyone’s favorite game – “Scout meaningless spring box scores!”. Personally, I’d rather know what you or another scouts are actually looking at in the players you are scouting during the month of March. Are you looking at mechanical changes for hitters/pitchers? Maintaining positive changes that players exhibited last year? Consistency in delivery/swing path? Or if it’s hard to scout at Spring Training, why exactly? Thanks.
Klaw: Stuff, health, bodies, mechanics, but not performance. This guy’s throwing harder, this guy has a new pitch, this guy is missing 4 mph. This guy showed up fat, this guy showed up in the Best Shape of His Life, this guy isn’t throwing like he used to. Spring training is the month of fake looks, so I try to keep it very simple to minimize the chance that I’ll get fooled.

John: What’s your view on Ian Happ’s chance at sticking at second? Does the bat play enough to be an above-average corner outfielder?
Klaw: I always had him as a 2b going back to I think his sophomore year in college. He’s absolutely agile and athletic enough. And yes, I think it’d play in RF, but that’s a much less valuable outcome.

Ryan: A friend and I need to settle an argument. Most unbreakable MLB record. My thought is Cy Young’s completed games record. His choice is Ricky’s stolen base record. Which record do you feel is most unbreakable?
Klaw: Any pitching record from before World War I is untouchable. If anything, those are going to become more distant as we stop asking pitchers to turn lineups over four times and increase the use of more relievers for longer stints.

Adam: YES!!!! Thursdays have been so boring!
Klaw: you’re telling me. I spent last Thursday on the couch trying to figure out what was real and what was a hallucination.

Theo: How does the age of a player factor into your evaluation? For instance, Blake Rutherford is 19, which is a year or more older than other HS seniors. Would a guy like Moniak, who is of normal age, be a better prospect in your eyes, since he has that extra year to develop?
Klaw: It matters and it doesn’t. (!) Historically, yes, older HS players have worse probabilities, very young HS players have much better probabilities. We would think of a 19-year-old mashing in low-A very differently than a 21-year-old doing the same; why wouldn’t we consider age the same way for amateur players? That said, there are some tools that are age-immune. Byron Buxton was past 18.5 on his draft day, but he was an 80 runner with an 80 arm, a probable 70 glove, bat speed, and the frame for power.

Jim: How good is Victor Robles? Is he already a top 15 prospect?
Klaw: Top 15 for the Nationals? Yes. I really hope you weren’t asking top 15 in baseball because no.

ProBeauNO: What’re your thoughts on Eddy Julio Martinez and Vlad Guerrero Jr.? Either potential impact players?
Klaw: Both, I think. I saw EJM work out, which is not the same as seeing him play in actual games, but if that guy was now entering his third spring of college, assuming he had two years of even adequate performance behind him, we’d be talking about him near the top of this draft.

David: Scouting reports reference “body control.” What does that mean?
Klaw: Think of it as a more comprehensive look at physical coordination. My wife and daughter love So You Think You Can Dance, and every year there are dancers who call their style “animation,” where they seem to be manipulating individual muscles in robotic movements. That’s 80 body control. And it’s important in baseball because the more you can control your muscles, the better you can repeat your mechanics, and the less you’re going to waste energy on inefficient movements.

AL (DC): Does the contract for Fister seem light? Seems rumors were two years and $10 per. But obviously those are rumors. Do you find it odd no one wanted to go more than 1 year? Especially teams (Orioles) that desperately need any and every pitching golden ticket?
Klaw: I was surprised he didn’t end up with two years somewhere, yes. It’s a perfect one-year flier – if his stuff is just gone, you release him.

Bored at Work: Read today that 92% of American girls between 3-12 have owned a Barbie at one point. Has your opinion of that toy option changed in light of the new sizes they’re coming out with? I’d guess your daughter doesn’t have any interest in such things — but, hypothetically, are you more likely to buy one for her now than, say, a year ago? (Assuming you haven’t already?)
Klaw: She never got into Barbie and we never encouraged it. She watched a couple of episodes of the new animated series and we had to ban it because it was so insulting to everyone’s intelligence.

CK: Keith, you’ve stated many times your views that college athletes should be paid for their labors, a position I certainly understand and agree with. Do you have thoughts on how we might ever get to that point, considering that we’re not starting from a blank slate and have to work in the world as it currently exists? In particular, it seems to me that the money brought in by big-time football and basketball not only supports exorbitant salaries for coaches and administrators, but allows the nonrevenue sports at big time schools, almost all of which lose money, to exist. Do you see any way to withstand the opposition the inevitable cutbacks for those sports would cause, particularly since Title IX concerns would become a big part of the issue?
Klaw: If we set Title IX aside for a moment, who cares about the other sports? Why is it the responsibility of football players to make sure the golf team still has putters? I get this argument all the time – “well, then say goodbye to non-revenue sports,” to which I say, “Okay.” Fund your own sports just like every other student club has to fund itself. Have a bake sale. But stop free-riding on the labors of other athletes.

Eric: Hi Keith, do you see the Mets drafting a pitcher with their 1st round pick this year, with the trade of Fulmer and Molina out with TJ the well is finally dry when it comes to top tier pitching prospects in the pipeline. Due to the weak free agent crop next year I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Mets trade 1 of their aces if the return is right, this is more reason to go with a pitcher in the 1st round, what are your thoughts on the Mets draft plan, any names you think they may be targeting?
Klaw: I don’t see them drafting for need like that – teams that do so nearly always regret it – but I agree with your second point about them potentially trading one of the young starters. It has to be in the back of Sandy’s mind that any of those kids could blow out (again) at any time, and if the opportunity came up to trade, say, Matz, who is super talented but always hurt, for a durable asset like a high-end position player prospect, he has to at least consider whether that’s the better long-term play.

Sean: Were you surprised by the Cespedes deal? Should he have taken Nats’ offer or is he better off with short term contract?
Klaw: Nats apparently offered a ton of deferred money so the Mets’ offer was probably worth more. I’m surprised the market didn’t give him more guaranteed money, yes.

Amy: What do you expect from Trey Ball this year and going forward? What’s his projected floor/ceiling at this stage?
Klaw: This is a big year for him. Velocity backed up and has never really returned, and the loss of arm speed backed up the breaking ball too. Still a good athlete, hard worker, good frame, but the stuff is just not sufficient.

Julie: Bad thing about being sick is it will be hard for you to report to spring training in the best shape of your life.
Klaw: I feel like the shape I’m likely to report in would be trapezoid.

Jeff: Thanks for recommending Jasper Fforde. My daughter and I enjoyed working through the first three Kazam books – any idea when the fourth will come out?
Klaw: I believe he’s now saying 2017. He’s become very cagey about release dates lately. There’s supposed to be a one-off adult novel from him this spring.

Mike: I just wanted to say thank you for all your discussion of your anxiety issues. Your openness and story on Stigma Fighters prompted me to finally seek some help and it’s already paying dividends with my own anxiety disorder.
Klaw: You’re welcome. I’m thrilled to hear that it helped. That is the reason I wrote it.

Johnny (Woburn, MA): Keith, thanks for taking my question! Could you see Moncada/Benintendi reaching the Majors before the end of the year?
Klaw: Benintendi, possibly. Moncada, I highly doubt it.

Ray A.: Are the SF Giants linked to Cuban prospect LAZARITO at all? They already went over on Fox, so it seems smart for them to gamble on this potential superstar.
Klaw: I spoke to three scouts who saw him in San Cristobal last week. Not one said he was a “potential superstar” or even close to that.

Roy: Why do people assume devers cant keep his weight down for 3b? Infuriating to see such lazy analysis.
Klaw: He’s also not fat. He’s big, but not heavy or fat or out of shape or plump or adipose or any of that. Just a big guy.

Miles: You have to bet on Fister either being his 2014 self or his 2015 self… No copout “in between”. Which way do you lean?
Klaw: I think he can recapture much of 2014, but no way would I say all of it given the velo drop.

Andy: Are you still going to be able to make the whole book o prospects in 10 days? While your ESPN editors may disagree, as a fan, please don’t rush them. Put in all 26 million (rough estimate) words.
Klaw: So the top 100 and the org rankings (1 to 30) will still run Feb 8-9 or 9-10, as planned. We may push the team reports back to the following week because of the time I lost. I’m still not doing a lot of phone stuff because I have a bad cough, which is not helping.

Sean: You seem to be pretty high on dom smith, what do you expect form him as a big leaguer?
Klaw: He was the 11th pick in the draft and raked in the minors, so I don’t think I’m high on him at all. I think he’s going to hit for a very high average with some power and plus-plus defense at first. If he’s going to get to more than just “some” power, he’s going to have to start to pull the ball more.

Brian: thanks for the chat, what kind of power numbers do you expect Bogaerts to get to this year? It seemed like last year he was just focusing on improving his contact rate, slapping the ball the other way. Do you think he could jump up to 20 – 25 hrs this year if he focuses on driving the ball more?
Klaw: Yes, I do. Ball really comes off his bat well – I wouldn’t be surprised if he grew into hitting a handful of oppo homers every year too.

addoeh: What song, with your surname in the title, would you choose for your walk-up music; Breaking The Law or I Fought the Law (Clash version)?
Klaw: Breaking the Law. More intimidating, which clearly I need.

Sean: Do you have a scouting report or opinion of Thomas Eshelman – HOU?
Klaw: He’s a Phillie now. Fifth starter type. Outstanding command of fringy stuff.

Adam: What are your thoughts on Kevin Maitan? Isnt he too young for the type of hype he is receiving?
Klaw: He can really hit, and there’s going to be power there. As for him being too young … I mean, there’s no appropriate age to compare someone to Miguel Cabrera, right? I’m more concerned about the joke of a system that lets him be “locked up” by a team 18 months before the signing date.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: How soon do we see Giolito?
Klaw: August. Just a guess but they’ve handled him so carefully it’s going to end up slowing his march to the majors.

Raphael: Hypothetical question: If a player racks up 100 WAR (a clear hall of famer), then continues playing and racks up -60 WAR (40 career WAR, not a hall of famer), should this player still make the hall of fame?
Klaw: I would actually say yes, although I know MGL had a big rant on Twitter a few weeks ago where he made a decent argument that the answer should be no.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Speaking of Cespedes, would be shocked to see him revert to his .260/.300/.450 slashline?
Klaw: Not at all. I don’t see any reason to think he suddenly became a different player because he beat the crap out of some bad pitching at the ideal time last year. (Slight exaggeration there.)

Jeremy: How much are tools learned or innate? Are some tools more learnable/developable than others?
Klaw: Tools are not learned. Skills are learned, mechanics are learned, but tools are innate.

Frank: Glad you are feeling better. Never saw you comment on the giants signing of Denard Span. Curious what your thoughts were on this deal? Thanks
Klaw: Money was fine, but don’t like him to play CF there – that’s a big park, with some flyball guys on staff – for the next three years. Thought they should have aimed for a better defender, even though I think the contract itself was probably just about right.

Ed: What are your favorite Rex Stout novels? Fer de Lance and Over My Dead Body are at the top for me. Thank you for doing these chats and sharing your opinions on your passions.
Klaw: I love both of those and Some Buried Caesar.

Charles: Even Jeter would get benched before he put up -60 WAR.
Klaw: I assume his question was prompted by Griffey’s career, where he was a zero or worse from age 30 on. So, if you’re a HoFer for 11 years – like, inner-circle good – and then just do some stat-padding that doesn’t really help the team, are you a HoFer or not?

Marshall: Tyler Duffey cam out of relative no where to be probably the Twins best pitcher down the stretch last season, I can’t assume that will be his ceiling going forward, but what do you think?
Klaw: Agreed. Fifth starter. Nothing he ever did before indicates he can keep doing what he did.

Alex: What about the system has him locked up? If someone comes along and blows away the supposed offer he has from the Braves what prevents him from taking it?
Klaw: Those deals are very, very rarely broken. The entire system is built on mutual trust. If you, as a trainer, renege on a deal with one club to take more money from another, teams will not commit money to your players the following year. Now that said, if I were GM of a team not under the penalty for 2016-17, I’d absolutely call Maitan’s guy on July 1st right around midnight and offer him $8 million and just DARE him to turn it down. And when he did, I’d make sure it became public, so MLB has to change the system. It is horribly broken and Manfred has a great opportunity to scrap it and start over.

JD: Speaking of hallucinations, have you watched/will you watch The Knick or Hannibal? Both incredible for different reasons, both very difficult to watch sometimes.
Klaw: Neither. I will not watch Hannibal. That kind of pandering does not appeal to me.

Jeff: How did Ian Kennedy get 5 years? Ian Kennedy!
Klaw: I think that’s my least favorite deal of the offseason, but the offseason isn’t over yet.

Scott of Lincolnshire: You’ve been advocating that swing bullpen position for years. Are teams like the Cubs fitting your vision of how a full pitching staff should look like? A couple of studs at the top, and then a bunch of #4/5 starters to fill out the rotation and half the bullpen?
Klaw: Yes, looks like Wood and Warren and possibly Richard will all be longer relievers this year. I love it.

Aubrey: At what point can Astros’ fans fairly question if Jim Crane is just unwilling to spend money on free agents? I know the team was a year or so ahead of schedule in 2015, but they have a very low payroll vs. Market size, and have clear needs that could be addressed.
Klaw: Oh, you can ask that now. Go ahead. He’ll answer you as soon as he finishes dealing with the cash call from his investors.

Keith: Re: Dom Smith – I’ve seen other reports that people are divided on the power thing. What you describe sounds vaguely Keith Hernandez- like – what’s wrong with an awesome defensive 1st baseman who hits 15 homers, lots of doubles and .300/.350 on base? Sounds like a star to me.
Klaw: These “other reports” are scouting the stat line, not the player. Anyone can sit home, read players’ stats off Baseball-Reference, and pretend to rank prospects.

Mike: Why didn’t Ke’Bryan Hayes go higher in the draft?
Klaw: I believe because people saw a lack of power in a corner player. But if he’s a 70 defender who never strikes out and hits .280 with a .360 OBP and 10 homers … I mean, Bill Mueller wasn’t even that good and he was a solid regular.

PRS: Are thinking about a re-fresh on the iOS board game rankings?
Klaw: I’m thinking about a lot of things I’d like to do right now and can’t because I’m like a walking corpse and still have to do the top 100. I finished The Caine Mutiny, The Mearseault Investigation, and The Vorrh in the last week and don’t have time to write any of them up.

Marshall: The Twins have gotten some criticism from fans for not going hard enough after new RP – however, I actually think we can get more bang for our buck by augmenting the bullpen with your power arms that are near the majors (Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc).
Klaw: Yeah that is the worst possible thing they could do. Plus ownership clearly doesn’t want to spend a ton on payroll, so why would Ryan spend it in the place where ROIs tend to be terrible?

Greg: What are your thoughts on Blake Rutherford? Do you think he is #1 on the braves early list at #3?
Klaw: I don’t think teams really have “early lists” like that now when most players won’t start playing for a month. I also don’t think he’s at all their kind of player, based on that group’s draft history. He’s a bat, but not an athlete.

Brenden: If you’re the Rangers how do you handle Profar coming back? Odor and Andrus look to have him blocked in the infield.
Klaw: Let him go to AAA and play every day for a while. It’s quite possible this will work itself out via injury, an external trade offer, or non-performance by Andrus.

Keith: I know you pay little attention to “other reports” and view players through your own lens but are there other scouts/websites etc. whose opinions you value even when different than your own?
Klaw: I think Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo at MLB do a fantastic job. Baseball America remains very thorough and if I have a dumb question on a player (like how tall is he, or what HS did he attend) they’re the best resource. Chris Crawford at BP worked for me and I’ve always thought highly of his eye. And Kiley McDaniel (RIP) always did great work for me and then for FG.

Raphael: I was thinking more Rose than Griffey. The question is less about players accruing -60 WAR (which is obviously never ever going to happen) than if we should discredit players for awful performances in addition to their great ones, and if so, how much.
Klaw: I think the subjective argument against Rose is that for the last 900 games of his career, he was probably hurting his teams rather than helping them, and some of that was in pursuit of a personal milestone. (I would bet a lot of folks don’t remember how bad he was in 1980, when the Phillies won the WS, but first basemen with ISOs of 0.073 are not terribly valuable creatures.) The selfishness of his actions at the end of his career should leave a bitter taste in everyone’s mouths. Does that cancel out a 75-WAR career beforehand? Probably not, but I’m open to the discussion. Of course, now we know what a terrible person he is, so this is academic.

Alex in Austin: What does Connor Jones need to show you this year to be a top 5 pick?
Klaw: I think he gets there with a strong statistical performance and consistent velocity. He can be 92-95 as a starter with sink and the good changeup and then we’re just debating little things. He doesn’t have the red flags of every other college starter in the draft, but he also doesn’t have that sexy 98 mph fastball.

David: Raimel Tapia has a reputation for an unorthodox swing/approach. How confident are you that he can succeed at the plate in the majors?
Klaw: He does not have that “reputation.” He has an unorthodox swing, period. I’ve never seen anyone hit like it, and with two strikes he looks like an ostrich trying to hide its head in the sand. (I know they don’t really do that.) I think he has exceptional hand-eye coordination, though, and that alone will get him TO the majors. To succeed, he’s going to have to develop more of a plan at the plate and some better recognition of spin.

Todd: Think Tyler White can have some Billy Butler-esque medium high OBP medium high power seasons as a DH?
Klaw: Yes I do. Don’t sleep on him just because he’s 5’10” and a little, um, adipose?

James: Can you comment on the Bob Ryan suspension?
Klaw: No because I don’t know what you’re talking about.

David: Reading “Chasing the Scream”. Does Sheriff Arpaio have a role in Pres. Trump’s administration?
Klaw: At some point, does Trump say to these endorsers, “nah, I’m good, thanks.” Because next up will be the head of the Aryan Nations or something.

jay: Thoughts on the initial Shapiro/Atkins regime in Toronto, fans are revolting. How would you rate their offseason to date?
Klaw: Jays fans are revolting? Come on, they’re perfectly nice people, don’t say that about them.

Mike: Fangraphs’ projections are pretty down on the Giants’ infield. Was last year for real, or is the concern about regression legit?
Klaw: I’d absolutely take the under on Crawford’s power, Kelby’s whatever, and probably Panik’s BABIP. But I think Duffy can really hit and Panik will still put the ball in play a ton.

Chris: Would a Ref for Cowart trade be fair and make sense? Better long term organizational fits position-wise.
Klaw: Probably not, because Refsnyder isn’t a second baseman.

Charles: What MLB players (if any) have the LeBron James power of getting a manager fired?
Klaw: I truly wonder – based on zero inside intel – what would happen if Mike Trout’s agent said to Arte Moreno, “Mike is unhappy with the manager.” That seems like the one player and the one situation where it might really topple the mountain.

Tim: I’m so confused when people say things like ” I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Mets trade 1 of their aces if the return is right…” when a team is in the middle of a contending period. Good teams don’t actually trade established, high value assets like an “Ace” during a contending period do they? I understand pitchers are volatile but aren’t they also the most irreplaceable part of a team?
Klaw: I don’t think they’re the most irreplaceable part of a team, but also, the return is the key variable. If you can trade Steven Matz for Bryce Harper, you do it. That’s a lopsided example, but what if the Pirates called and offered you Gregory Polanco for Matz? A five-tool guy who’s already made some adjustments in the majors for a pitcher who is certainly more valuable right now on a day-by-day basis, but who has yet to throw 150 innings in a pro season?

bobby: I know you have been suspect of L Severino’s ability to stay healthy with his arm action. If you were Girardi/Cashman would you come up with a different plan for him to protect against that, use up his bullets now and figure it out later, or have those concerns abated for you?
Klaw: Two arguments here. One, you could say we want to protect him, so we’re going to make him strictly a three-times-through-the-order guy, and maybe put some low pitch count on him too. Or, two, you could say, fuck it, they ALL get hurt at some point, and he’s been great for us, so just use him normally and if it ends some time, well, at least we got value while we could. I kind of lean towards the latter. I hate the delivery, but some bad deliveries last for years and some good ones blow out.

Thomas: I’ve seen you speak highly of it in the past, but would Raglan Road still be your go-to recommendation for Disney Springs? Thanks.
Klaw: Downtown Disney. Still like it a lot for a casual dinner. I think the best restaurant on the property is Jiko at Animal Kingdom Lodge.

Dave: What do you think the odds are that Sandoval’s offense and defense bounce back to career levels in 2016 and that Ramirez can play a passable first base?
Klaw: Low, low, high.

Hank: Out of the 5 tools, which do you see as the most important?
Klaw: People will overlook many sins if you can hit.

Chris: I didn’t see a write-up on the Scott Kazmir signing. What have been your thoughts on the Dodgers’ offseason, specifically the construction of the rotation? Should they have just signed Greinke or do you like the depth added with Kazmir, Maeda and Yasiel?
Klaw: I would have signed Greinke rather than go with the quantity approach. I don’t think Sierra is MLB rotation depth for this year, though. Probably further down the line.

Kieran: Thoughts on Conforto’s numbers for a full year? Is he a star in the making with a middle of the order bat or does he not have that upside?
Klaw: I think he’s a star in the making – .400 OBP with 20-25 HR and good LF defense? Maybe 25 HR is too optimistic, but even 20 HR would make him a star with that other stuff.

Michael: Has Clint Frazier’s development thus far been what you would have expected or would you be a bit concerned?
Klaw: It’ s been what I would have expected, but I had real concerns about the hit tool in HS and frankly see all the same issues there today.

Chris: Given your normal propensity to be (rightly) player-centric at all levels of baseball, I am surprised by your Sev answer. Team uses him up and blows him out before he’s had a chance to earn real money?
Klaw: Isn’t that right for the team? I’m not offering a moral judgment but what I think is sound business advice.

Tom: Have the pirates been deliberately forgoing power for contact in the draft recently(and in free agency for that matter)? It seems like every hitter they have drafted the last two years is a contact hitter with modest power potential.
Klaw: Contact is a very rare skill in MLB right now. Perhaps they’re responding to that. A team without a lot of power but whose hitters put the ball in play all the time did just win two straight AL pennants, so maybe it’s not a bad idea?

mike: aaron sanchez has put on 25 pounds this offseason “working out” with stroman. assuming no overhaul to his delivery, this doesn’t change the outlook for him as a starter does it?
Klaw: No. Until he restores his old delivery he’s probably going to have to work out of the bullpen.

Nils: Can Jon Singleton claim and hold on to the 1B job for the forseeable future? Or is he just keeping the seat warm for Reed?
Klaw: I would not be at all surprised if Reed made a real push for that job in March. He might just be the best option today, and while I know about OMG SUPER TWOOOO and all that, I’d rather get another 150 PA from him now versus saving a million bucks in 2019.

Johnny: How do you find all the articles for your weekly Stick to Baseball? Twitter generally?
Klaw: Twitter, facebook, noodling around, often I am reading something I found on twitter but the link that ends up in StB is something else on that site that proved more interesting.

Johnny: Do you ever skip words/chapters/pages when reading or are you just an awesome speed reader? I read slow because I often repeat sentences or even pages to really absorb them but I end up reading very slow.
Klaw: If I’m skipping content it’s time to put the book down. I got 30 pages into The Uplift War last week and found myself glazing over all his made-up words so I bailed.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Dan Vogelbach. Now that I’ve mentioned him, I think we can all feel better about our lives.
Klaw: Indeed, and now our chat has ended, let us go in peace. Current plan is a chat next week and two the week after, one on org top 30 day, one on top 100 day. As always watch this space, twitter, facebook for updates. Thanks for your patience!

Comments

  1. Any red flags with Blake Rutherford? Skipped fall ball and now won’t participate in MLB showcase in SoCal. While peers Moniak, Tuck are in. Does he love the game? Is he a competitor? Would this concern you? Thanks appreciate your thoughts

  2. Hey Keith, Greg Zaun mentioned a while back that “clutch” happens because players wilt under pressure rather than players rising above their ability. Do you think this has any merit or are there too few players (these are major leaguers, after all) that are affected by this and thus would largely be irrelevant?

  3. I BEG anyone to help me with this: I have a huge group of avid sports following friends, yet I am the only one who thinks momentum in sports is a myth. Does anyone have a book, article(s) or any other resource that I can use to support my argument?

  4. @Kihn, I enjoyed Rock Breaks Scissors, which basically boils down to “people don’t understand randomness,” but as I recall there’s a chapter on The Myth of the Hot Hand, which essentially covers momentum.

    http://www.amazon.com/Rock-Breaks-Scissors-Outguessing-Outwitting/dp/0316228060

  5. My nomination for most unbreakable record: Most Grand Slams, Inning (2, Fernando Tatis)

  6. my nomination is Johnny Vander Meer’s back to back no hitters. To break that a pitcher would have to throw 3 no hitters in a row.

    • Three consecutive no-hitters, while unlikely, is still VASTLY more likely than 512 wins or 750 complete games in a career or 60 wins in a season.

  7. The key to answering the unbreakable record question is to find something where the game is simply no longer played in a way to make that possible.

    Henderson’s steal totals require a specific-type of player, which is incredibly rare, but there’s nothing inherently unbreakable about the record. Billy Hamilton stole 57 bases last year, despite playing in just 114 games and posting a .274 OBP. If he were posting OPBs in the .400s like Henderson and playing every day, he might be stealing 90 to 100 bases a year. The only thing standing in his way is, well, not being good enough offensively.

    But 749 complete games in clearly unbreakable as the game is currently played. A pitcher would need to throw a CG in every start of his career to break it. This isn’t a hyperbolic statement either. That’s 22 years at 34 starts a year. That’s 9 fewer starts than Greg Maddux made