Klawchat 12/03/15.

Klaw: A chance encounter, you want to avoid the inevitable, the Klawchat.

Clark: Why do smart front offices make bad decisions?
Klaw: I feel like you should ask your rabbi that question.

Brady: Hi Keith, thanks for chatting. There’s been a lot of Shelby Miller for Jorge Soler speculation, but Miller had 2.5 more WAR last year than Soler has had in his career. Would you trade Miller for Soler straight up?
Klaw: Different service time and cost, plus higher innate risk of a pitcher, makes that a reasonable deal for both sides in my eyes.

scottdsimon: Would you give a quick preview of your Paste review of two-player 7 Wonders?
Klaw: I liked it (7 Wonders Duel), but it’s not quite 7 Wonders for two players – same theme, somewhat simpler mechanics, more direct interaction.

Anonymous: Keith, thanks again for the chat. Any surprises among the non-tenders, and anyone you’d think a good candidate on which to take a flyer?
Klaw: Nicasio jumped out at me. Some guys who were non-tendered just to sneak them off the 40, like Rosell Herrera or Domingo German (who had TJ last winter), would be worth a look. I don’t know what to make of Minor or H Alvarez, since both had shoulder surgery and I don’t know what their outlooks are. A little surprised at Chris Carter – I think I’d rather take another year of him than of Gattis.

mike: Aside from adding a power arm or two to the bullpen do you think the BlueJays are done adding to roster?
Klaw: I thought Shapiro said they were done with major adds. BTW, remember those stupid rumors about how some “source” said the Jays were David Price’s top choice, or that they were negotiating a deal? So much BS out there this time of year from people who want clicks or retweets.

Miles: Thoughts on Kivlehan?
Klaw: Fringe to non-prospect. 1B only, good approach, limited tools.

Bradley: After seeing what Zimmerman and Price signed for, $63 million over the next three years for Shields doesn’t look so bad to me. Yes, Zimmerman and Price are younger, but if somebody is looking for a solid No.2 or 3, Shields looks like a reasonable option.
Klaw: I agree. Seems like he’s got real trade value if they want to move him.

Tom: I finally disagreed with you on a board game. Tried Race for the Galaxy last night and loved it. First time for everything. Thanks again for all the reviews. You’ve singlehandedly increased our family together time by sparking my and my kids’ interest in board games. Always much appreciated. Keep up the good work.
Klaw: I’m in the minority on RftG. Most folks who like serious games love it.

James: Hey Keith, is there any worry about Luis Ortiz’s weight gain? I love his stuff but I’m worried that his weight becomes an issue if he doesn’t get it under control
Klaw: Absolutely. Guy’s as big as a house right now.

Donald X: Play the new Dominion app yet?
Klaw: Reviews are awful so no. Plus they want $15 for expansions, which is high comedy.

Chad: Why is Pandemic so much lower on your 2 player rankings, then your overall rankings? I bought it on Cyber Monday, and I primarily play with my wife, and I was just curious if there was a clear problem with the two man gameplay?
Klaw: I think two-person games turn into one-person games.

Ryan: With Jeimer Candelario’s showing in the AFL, is he a viable MLB player and is he only a 3B
Klaw: Can’t play 3b.

Pops: Alen Hanson PIT a starter at 2B for you or a utility guy?
Klaw: Starter.

Joe: Any chance Mark Trumbo can be a 2 WAR player again in Camden Yards?
Klaw: Not there or anywhere. OPACY is not this great hitters’ park that some folks (including media/broadcasters) think it is.

Bradley: What was your favorite dish at Thanksgiving this year?
Klaw: I was very pleased with the Kale Caesar with duck confit – I made Ruhlman’s Caesar dressing from his book Egg, using confit oil, and (since my wife does not eat any seafood) using about 1 Tbsp of white miso in lieu of the anchovies to keep some umami in the dish. Plus my daughter and I then ate all the extra duck legs for dinner the next few nights. But that wasn’t the biggest hit with the guests – they crushed the basics, including the from-scratch g.b.c.

Jace: Other than move to Australia, is there any real chance for living in a sane gun control environment in my lifetime?
Klaw: This is morbid, but if a major celebrity is killed in one of these massacres, that might do it. Or campaign finance refoHAHAHAHA oh my God I almost got that out.

Ryan: I don’t understand all of this interest the Mets are showing in Ben Zobrist. A long-term contract to a 35 year old second baseman? No, thanks. What is it about Dilson Herrera that the Mets don’t like?
Klaw: Hey, Zobrist is a good player, but four years? That makes no sense to me.

Jeremy: what is a reasonable comp for Benitendi? Adam Eaton?
Klaw: Like him more than that. More power.

Todd: If I told you five years ago Keuchel and Kluber would win consecutive Cy Young awards, how crazy would I have looked? Which guy surprised you more?
Klaw: Keuchel. Saw him in college, 5th starter type. Totally overhauled his arsenal before 2014. Guy deserves a ton of credit.

Vin: Seems like both Cueto and Samardzjia will get more than $100 million. Who would you feel more comfortable giving that contract to?
Klaw: Cueto.

Nick: How often does a guy who doesn’t take any walks, such as grichuk, change their approach to do so? Could he be an all star with an upped walk rate?
Klaw: It’s very rare for that to happen and last at all. I don’t think he’ll do it.

Alex: Would you give Grienke a 6th year? Sounds like that is going to be what it will take for either the Dodgers or Giants to get him.
Klaw: Yes.

Craig: What is Josh Hader’s ceiling after his AFL performance? #3 starter?
Klaw: still think that’s a reliever all the way. Low slot for a starter, lot of effort, questionable command.

Steve: Just wanted to say thanks for the recommendation on the food lab and the note it was 30% off at Amazon. About 50 pages in and it is a great read.
Klaw: That book is amazing other than its sheer heft.

Ray: What kind of player do the Dodgers have in Yusniel Diaz? More bat than power or a little of both?
Klaw: Power/speed guy. Lot of tools meaning high upside but more risk than Estevez, the other Cuban they signed the same day (both Boras clients, IIRC), who has better feel to hit right now but lacks the big tools.

Ryan: Know anything about Jose Miguel Fernandez?
Klaw: He was actually on my top free agents ranking last winter, prematurely as it turned out. Chance to be an above-average everyday player.

Bret: It’s not a major deal, but I was surprised that the Jays kept Justin Smoak around for $3.9M. What do they see in him?
Klaw: Platoon bat with plus defense at first. Slight overpay IMO – probably a $2MM player.

Ben: Byung Ho Park – thoughts on his deal?
Klaw: Less than I thought he’d get, which is good for the Twins and also an example of how this posting system sucks for the players.

Ian: Is Jose Berrios a (potential) front of the rotation starter? I know you’ve had concerns about his height limiting his ceiling.
Klaw: Don’t think so. He’s likely to be too homer-prone with that flat fastball.

Tyler: Can Jason Heyward be a above average CF defender for the likely life of the contract he signs this offseason (6-7 years+)?
Klaw: No, I don’t think so.

nb: Hey Keith – Thanks for these chats. They’ve become one of my favorite hours of the week! Just wanted to know when we will start seeing your organizational rankings on the mothership. Thanks
Klaw: End of January for the whole thing. I always do the entire prospect package at once, over a three-day span.

Ryan from Richmond: When is the Rule 5?
Klaw: Next Thursday morning. I fly home late that morning so I may not attend it in person – not that the rule 5 matters much any more.

Alan: Just wanted to let you know my thoughts and prayers are with you through this chat.
Klaw: Thanks, Alan, really feelin’ the love right now.

Patrick: I know that lineup order has been shown to not have much importance, but am I crazy to use it as the main thing I judge a manager on? It is the decision that the manager has the most time and information to make as opposed to in game decisions that need to be made in an instant. I equate it to an open book test where it is really inexcusable to get questions incorrect.
Klaw: You’re right if you’re looking at a manager who puts a low OBP guy in the 1 or 2 spots and you think he’s a moron for doing so, because he is.

Bob@TheGoldenTriangle: Your thoughts on Pedro Alvarez getting non-tendered (released, really), please. How did he perform based on what you saw of him as a prospect.
Klaw: I loved the power, saw high risk with the swing and miss and the inability to hit lefties. Also didn’t think the body would stay at 3b long term. I remember ranking him around #37 one year on my top 100, and getting called all kinds of names by (some) angry pirates fans. Some high-risk guys work out; that one didn’t.

Alan: Felt like every guy the Giants brought up was able to contribute (Crawford, Panik, Duffy, Tomlinson, etc) despite having a system that is always seen as pitching heavy at best. What’s the Giants secret sauce?
Klaw: Pretty good system for getting the most out of high-contact bats. Lot of folks in the game credit Meulens and Bochy. Some of that was fluky though – Tomlinson has so little power it’s hard to see pitchers even giving him the opportunity to hit .300, and Crawford’s first-half spike was a mirage.

Bill G.: Which do you believe will have a better career, Max Kepler or Odubel Herrera. Also, have you played with any of the simulation baseball games like DMB, if so which do you like best? Thanks!
Klaw: Kepler, and no, I haven’t played any sim games.

Vin: What have you heard about Kenta Maeda? Is he more of a back-of-the-rotation guy?
Klaw: I think that’s where he ends up if he comes here and has to pitch every fifth day. Plus splitter, average to slightly above avg fastball, very small/slight guy who doesn’t look very durable and missed a handful of starts in 2013 and 2014.

Ian: Early 2016 draft question but who goes #1?
Klaw: If Alec Hansen is healthy, he’s my bet. Jason Groome and AJ Puk are possibilities too, although I think that’s too much for Puk – if I’m going pitcher at 1-1 I want a better athlete.

Josh Bell: So, does this mean I’ll get the call quicker?
Klaw: Not if you can’t make a significant improvement in your defense at first base.

Tom: You mentioned on Twitter yesterday that fans complain about player salaries but not owner profits (hey, no one complains about movie actor salaries either) but shouldn’t fans be concerned how contracts affect teams’ abilities to put together future rosters? Or, say in Price’s case, how many guys have been productive in the 7th year of these long term deals?
Klaw: Those complaints are fair criticisms; I’m referring to comments like “$31 million is insane!” (actual comment on my FB page) or “no one is worth that much money for playing a game” (I made that one up). It’s economic illiteracy. The owners are raking it in; revenues are rising faster than salaries. The players are the product and should be able to earn the marginal revenue product of their labor; there are players who are worth $40 million a year in added revenue, like Harper and Trout, but good luck convincing the average fan who didn’t even take economics in high school that a guy making $20 million a year is “underpaid.”

Jack: Is there anything to like in the Orioles farm system?
Klaw: It’s in poor shape. Sisco is a prospect, Hess and Scott are big leaguers, and you can always hope Harvey and/or Bundy gets healthy at some point.

Logan: Surprised by the Henderson Alvarez non-tender? He should have a pretty robust market, yeah?
Klaw: Depends on what the shoulder looks like. If it’s just ground beef in there, then no.

Jeremy: Javy Guerra or Jorge Mateo?
Klaw: Guerra.

Ian: What’s the scouting report on Kohl Stewart? Twins fans are calling him a bust because of the lack of strike outs. Does he have time to turn it around?
Klaw: Twins fans calling a 20-year-old a “bust” by scouting the stat line are not actually Twins fans.

Fred: What is it with Mets starters that their stuff seems to get better in the majors? Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard’s stuff have all been better in the majors than minors. Is it due to better instruction in the majors, elite athletes elevating their game as they reach a higher level or just a fluke thing?
Klaw: Their folks credit the pitching coach, Dan Warthen. Will be interesting to see what he can do with Matz (if healthy), where the stuff is pretty good already but the command isn’t.

Andrew: Does Carter’s release indicate that AJ Reed will be the everyday 1B by May 1 (assuming he hits in AAA in April)?
Klaw: I hope so, just because I think he’s close to ready and I hate seeing clubs hold players down for arbitration/service time reasons. It does a disservice to the game and the fans even though it is the right business move in many or most cases.

Kyle: Did you read the Bill James piece on the three man rotation? Seems crazy enough to work….but is there any team out there that would actually try it? And any agents that would let their pitchers take the mound for said team?
Klaw: No, but if this is three starters, none faces more than 18 batters idea, it’s been around for ~30 years. I also think something like that is inevitable given data that shows that pitchers are worse the fourth time through the order.

Rob: So is Wil Myers the new 1B in San Diego? Does he profile adequately as an everyday 1B? First division upside or not?
Klaw: I assume so – he was awful in the OF last year, and that’s a bad park for a below-average defensive outfielder anyway. I do think he can hit enough to play there if he’s healthy.

Ben: Do you see Greinke setting a new AAV record?
Klaw: I think it’s about even money on that. I wouldn’t hesitate to give him 5 and $160MM if I were a high-revenue contender.

Tyler: More likely in next CBA… A) Rosters expanded to 26-27 B) NL DH, C) International Draft D) None of those are happening
Klaw: Some form of C, which will take the current system, fix some of its flaws, and create new ones instead.

Jeremy: what do you think the Rangers should do with Profar? seems like they are locked into Odor/Andrus in the middle infield.
Klaw: Probably start him in AAA anyway to get him some at bats and some reps in the field. I believe these surpluses often work themselves out due to an injury or an unanticipated trade opportunity. No reason to force it now unless something comes to you. Maybe they’ll get a proposal next week for one of those three guys that makes too much sense to refuse.

Mike: What is Roughned Odor’s power ceiling?
Klaw: I could see a 20 HR season there. Hey, did you know that the Rangers signed his brother, who is also named Rougn*()_U#I@R##(strangling sounds)

Pat: The Rays held Desmond Jennings in AAA in 2011 until summer to avoid the super 2, and then he played so well that you could question whether bringing him up earlier would have made up the 1 game by which they missed the playoffs. Now he’s been underwhelming and getting expensive and it would be tragically ironic if they were to non-tender him after the 2016 season.
Klaw: One man’s tragic irony is another’s black comedy.

Jeremy: if salary weren’t an issue, would Aaron Judge be a better RF option than Beltran in April 2016?
Klaw: I thought that would become the case last summer/spring, but now I don’t. Judge would get eaten alive by MLB pitchers working him soft away right now.

Lewis: Do you consider the 2016 Draft good like 2011 or more of the same of the last few years?
Klaw: We may not see another 2011-level draft for many more years. That was an absolute delight to cover.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Klaw, thanks for recommendation on Carcassonne. I haven’t bought or played a board game in years, and my wife and I loved it. Since I’ve also enjoyed some of your other recommendations related to literature and cooking, do you have any book recommendations for expecting fathers?
Klaw: The Happiest Baby on the Block was our mainstay.

Jake: Greg Bird upside?
Klaw: Everyday DH. Low average, walks, 25 HR.

Thomas: Many seem to think opt-outs are bad deals for teams, but I don’t see it that way at all. The back end of contracts are always bad. Provide a door the player can step through to save you from the bad years. The Yankees should have done that with CC. Am I wrong here, and if not, do you see more teams using them strategically?
Klaw: I think they cut both ways, for the reason you cited. The argument that they’re always bad for the teams – a belief to which I used to subscribe, by the way – was that if the player performed well in Phase 1 of the contract, it indicated that he would continue to perform well in Phase 2. I don’t think that correlation is quite as strong as we once believed it was, especially for pitchers.

Jack: Isn’t Greg Bird’s upside technically sky-high?
Klaw: How sick?

Sam: Why in the world would the Diamondbacks say Cueto rejected their offer? Seems the only viable explanation is to let the fans know they are trying to spend money even if they eventually do not. Any way it comes off as bad form and since nobody else publicly releases rejected offers it seems petty.
Klaw: Yes, I believe that’s the reason, but in general, please don’t ask me why the current Diamondbacks regime does anything they do, because I sure as hell don’t understand it. This is the same club that sold Touki Toussaint to cover a budget shortfall caused by Yoan Lopez. I’d sooner explain magnets and the tides.

Jeremy: is JBJ the best defensive CF in the MLB?
Klaw: I was going to answer this question but Kevin Kiermaier just robbed it from the queue.

Jeremy: if Pedroia got hurt, is Betts or Holt a better replacement at 2B
Klaw: Betts.

Kirk: Do you think Miguel Sano has the ability to play right field every day?
Klaw: I’d try him in LF and Kepler in RF. I’d say 2 to 1 odds against Sano working out in the outfield, but well worth the try.

Scott: Should the A’s extend Reddick? I worry that he won’t be worth the amount he likely needs to stay put.
Klaw: I think they should shop or trade him.

Tom: Thanks, I’ve always thought it was funny that it’s common to hear “Hey, greedy (pro athletes) aren’t worth $20m a year” but no one ever complained when Tom Cruise/Jim Carrey, etc would rake in $20m per film. All of it’s entertainment, right?
Klaw: Yep, and indeed no one cares about celebrity salaries or musician incomes. If that player was your son, you’d want him to get every dollar he could.

Fred: Why is everyone forgetting about Wheeler with the Mets rotation? Correct me if I’m wrong, he still projects better than Matz? How is Wheeler not in the big four but Matz is?
Klaw: Because he had Tommy John surgery? I love Wheeler, but expecting him to step right back into the rotation and make 30 starts at his old level this year is a bit optimistic for me.

MFY: How did the Yankees miss on Anderson Espinoza? They spent so much that year and didn’t come up with the best prospect.
Klaw: Well 29 other teams missed too, right? Signing players in Latin America is about as difficult as it gets. You have to start when they’re 14 and often they already have (illegal) deals in place before their 15th birthdays.

Thomas: How could the O’s not sign Alvarez? Seems like he can walk right into Davis’ role.
Klaw: Well “walk” probably isn’t the ideal word there.

Matt: How much value, if any, would you ascribe the the notion of pitchers being “comfortable” with a certain catcher? I’ve been seeing a lot of criticism of the White Sox non-tender to Flowers based on the fact that Sale loves pitching to him, and I’m wondering if that’s something that should be considered in the FA process
Klaw: I think it’s a nice thing to have but not something I’d really pay for if the catcher didn’t have other tangible value, like framing or OBP or something. Otherwise it becomes unverifiable bullshit and I don’t pay for that.

Sooperjones: Can we get that Turkey and Soba Noodle Soup recipe?
Klaw: It wasn’t a recipe – lot of my dishes aren’t – I just made a very rich turkey stock, cooked it down enough that it barely set at room temperature and was a solid block of gel in the fridge, then heated it and added cooked soba noodles, leftover turkey, salt, chopped scallions, chopped celery leaves/hearts, and a splash of rice wine vinegar.

Michael: I’m trying to learn a foreign language. I believe you’ve been vocal against using Rosetta Stone. Before I spent hundreds on it, why?
Klaw: Because I don’t think their method teaches you the language at all. You learn some vocabulary and not in a way that increases retention. It’s very expensive for how little it delivers – but it feels like you’re doing something so people pay for it.

Ray: Will Brett Phillips hit for avg, power or both? Can he be a 15 HR-20 SB-.280-.350 hitter?
Klaw: Yeah, I buy that. Not huge power but he hits the ball hard and could peak at 20-22 HR.

Ryan E: Any thoughts on who the Phillies go for in the rule 5? Are any available outfielders interesting to you?
Klaw: The rule 5 draft is not interesting to me. There’s too little talent available. In a good year you get two guys who stick and do something. In most years you get one or none.

Scott: Is it just me, but have you noticed that people are much more defensive about their tastes in music, compared to movies, books, etc?
Klaw: Every year I do some best-of-the-year music posts, and every year at least one person shows up to insult me for my choices because I omitted some album/artist that person loves. Never fails. I don’t get it – these lists are inherently subjective and I claim nothing more for them than that they’re my opinions.

Joe: Baseball Prospectus has a lot of data on pitch framing, and basically it shows that the best pitch framing catchers get about an extra strike and a half per game. Long story short: do we seriously overrate pitch framing as analytics people?
Klaw: I think we do, and another major reason is that it doesn’t seem to correlate well from year to year. Wasn’t Rene Rivera supposed to be great at framing? Hank Conger? How’d those work out? Now we’re chasing exit velocity the way we chased framing a year or two years ago. The value in new statistics is learning their predictive value, not in arbitrarily deciding that this one or that one is valuable before we have proof.

Jeremy: does Henry Owens 2015 debut lower his ceiling for you? the changeup didnt seem to fit the 70 profile at the MLB level.
Klaw: Nope, it didn’t. And the deception wasn’t as effective as it was in the minors.

Billy: I’ve seen you mention that you have a few Celiac family members recently. My fiance was recently diagnosed and I was wondering what resource(s) you’re using to find recipes, suggestions for substitutions, etc.
Klaw: One gluten-free family member (non-celiac but medical reasons), one close friend who developed a severe wheat allergy after dying in childbirth. (She got better.) Bought KA Gluten-Free Flour blend and xanthan gum. I start with 1-for-1 substitutions in regular recipes (but not bread – you need gluten for real bread) and work from there.

DC: Comps for Josh Bell and Alan Hansen? Thanks
Klaw: I don’t do comps, sorry.

Thomas: Regarding Judge, is the slow away going to kill him permanently, or to-be-expected growing pains?
Klaw: To be expected but it’s a real hole he has to address now.

Jeremy: which of the 2016 draft prospects is most likely to crack your midseason top 25 prospects list?
Klaw: Right now I would guess none.

Josh: Back to the James Shields trade value q, I believe he can opt out if traded, which significantly lowers his value, because if he’s good, he will walk and if he gets worse then you are stuck. Worth more to the Padres than any other team I think.
Klaw: If he’s good, he walks, and you’re off the hook for what are likely to be worse years anyway. But yes, if he sucks, you’re screwed.

Jeremy: for a non-contending Phillies team, would you bring JP Crawford up in June/July 2016? or let him work in AAA until September?
Klaw: When he’s ready – when the at bats are good enough, when he’s no longer making some of the little mistakes that mar his game.

TodD: I read somewhere that many scouts believe this is the best draft class in 10~ years. Do you agree with that sentiment?
Klaw: I don’t think you read that anywhere because it couldn’t be further from the truth.

Jeremy: did you see anything in Seager in 2015 that would make you believe he could stick at SS for 3-4 years?
Klaw: I’d bet against it.

Kirk: So if Kepler in right and Sano in left, that leaves Rosario…where? (Assuming Buxton in center) trade chip? Super sub?
Klaw: Trade chip, most likely. Rosario’s not as good as the other guys and the makeup is not great either.

Michael: As someone who is socially liberal, but fiscally conservative (I can’t be the only one), I find that I basically have no political candidates to vote for. Would you make any changes to the election process in the U.S.? How do you vote? Do you prioritize certain issues over others?
Klaw: You’re far from the only one but there is no party that represents that set of views. I don’t talk much about specific candidates, but I can tell you this: I won’t vote for anyone who’s anti-science. If you don’t accept the reality of evolution, climate change, vaccination safety and effectiveness, and so on, you don’t get my vote. I don’t always vote for the same party, or for the same reasons, but I always vote science.

Vin: Since Crick looks destined to be a reliever, who’s the best pitching prospect in the Giants’ system?
Klaw: Don’t even think Crick is a reliever at this point. I’ll defer on the latter question till I do their rankings because the guy I have in mind would be something of a surprise.

Chris: You can add gerrymandering and a total misread of the 2nd Am as obstacles to reform, Keith.
Klaw: Gerrymandering is something of an anti-science (or anti-math or anti-technology) thing on top of mere self-preservation – exhibited by all parties and ideologies, by the way. Not a huge issue in my state, though, with a single Representative.

Frustrated Cubs Fan: Thoughts on Theo basically twiddling his thumbs when it comes to acquiring SPs?
Klaw: I think you should take a Xanax.

Jeremy: How does Santa act in your house? Reward the nice and punish the naughty? Or give gifts out of unconditional love?
Klaw: We have one child and overall she’s quite well-behaved so it’s not a huge issue. We do wield that hammer, though – behave or Santa will see – but in reality she’s going to get a ton of presents even if we chose to skimp.

RC in the 41Six: JA Happ to the Jays for $12 million? Better shore up the bullpen but I don’t see how losing Hendriks helps this cause. Are good relievers simply much easier to find than #3 or #4 starters and is this the way you would have rebuilt the post Price Jays?
Klaw: Didn’t like that deal or the Estrada one. BTW, I’ll predict here that Atkins gets the GM job, and while I’ve known Ross for years and like him as a person and as a baseball mind, that would be just another preordained handpicked GM “search” that should add to MLB’s list when examining obstacles to minority advancement.

Tom: Since LAA traded their one good prospect to shore up SS, what’s their best course of action to address the black holes in LF, 3B, and 2B?
Klaw: It’s money or nothing (well, or finding someone on the scrap heap, which isn’t a crazy idea, just not guaranteed).

robb: The problem with the athletes-entertainers comparison over salaries is that, if you don’t want to go see a Cruise movie, you can go see one with Hanks in it. If you get upset at the contracts the team you’ve followed all your life hands out, you don’t start following another team. That said, I don’t get why people complain about it at all. It’s not our money.
Klaw: And people who complain about that one contract – oh, I can’t believe they gave Estrada that deal – aren’t my target here. It’s the Blue Jays fan who gets mad at what Price and Greinke and Heyward make just because it sounds like a lot of money. It isn’t in the context of industry revenues.

Taylor: Pedro Alvarez is very limited but the power is… something. What would you do with a player like that and who do you think should pick him up?
Klaw: IMO always a place on the roster for a player with a huge tool like Pedro’s power. Just have to use him judiciously and be willing to accept the failure that comes with it. He’s not a zero or replacement-level; he’s a part-time asset. BTW, tough week for that 2008 draft’s college first basemen: Alvarez non-tendered, Smoak signs a small one-year deal to avoid non-tender, Alonso traded because he was about to be non-tendered and goes to a club to replace Ike Davis. The other college 1b taken in the first round are all essentially done – Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Allan Dykstra. Yikes.

Michael: Boston talk radio has already started with the Price-sucks-in-big-games narrative. Funny or sad?
Klaw: A sad commentary on our country’s innumeracy.

Jimbo: You mentioned somewhere (twitter?) recently that you’ve cured and smoked your own bacon before. How did you do the cure? Did you use nitrates or nitrites?
Klaw: Pink salt (sodium chloride plus sodium nitrite). Otherwise your bacon will come out grey and taste very porky, plus you’re slightly increasing the risk of some bacterial growth. Ruhlman’s Twenty has a cure recipe that I use as my base.

J: Love it that Adele has sold 4m copies of her new record. It shows that people are still willing to pay for music
Klaw: Agreed. I bought Grimes’ new album. I will say that the industry-wide jump from 99 cents a track to $1.29 a track did impact my purchasing – I didn’t expect to react that way but ended up a Spotify premium member instead of continuing to buy lots of singles.

Corey: With all their young MLB players, long term contracts + minors talent close or on the way, Boston doesn’t really have any holes to fill for a few years (Sam Travis at 1B, Hanley to DH) How would you manage the farm system and MLB roster if you were GM given there’s no place to put a lot of these guys?
Klaw: They become trade assets for now or July or maybe next winter. Marrero, Cecchini, Barnes, Owens, Shaw … they’re all useful parts of larger deals, or maybe pieces to get good relief options who are younger than free agents and maybe don’t have the mileage of a Darren O’Day.

Thomas: Have we flipped too far towards youth and prospects? Will “older” players become the new market inefficiency eventually?
Klaw: I hope so or else I have no shot at getting that one at bat to get me a page on Baseball-Reference. That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you so much for reading. I’ll be in Nashville for the winter meetings next week and may delay the chat till Friday around my travel, but I’ll be writing, tweeting, posting on my Facebook page, and perhaps doing a Periscope if I can find a good spot and strong enough wifi connection.

Comments

  1. @UnfetteredJon

    As far as Warthen, hasn’t it been about him getting these young starters to throw an above avg slider?

  2. What do you consider sane gun control? There are already background checks, have to be 21 to buy a handgun, no fully automatic rifles, can’t ever have been a convicted felon and any decent firearm is around 1000 dollars. Seems like you’re punishing law abiding citizens for criminals actions. 750,000 people walked around the woods on Monday in your neighboring state with high power rifles and yet no one was shot.

    • I’m sorry, but is “no fully automatic rifles” supposed to be some kind of hardship for gun owners? Why do you need a semi-automatic weapon?

  3. 1. Most states allow hunting with semi-auto firearms. You are just thinking the scary looking ones you see glamorized. 2. It’s fun to shoot them. 3. They aren’t used in many murders. You have a better chance of dying from a hammer.

    You pulled a straw-man.

    • That’s not a straw man.

      As for your counterarguments, (1) is immaterial – it’s allowed now, but can be banned, and current legality is no argument for continued legality or for their necessity. (2) is neither a statement of need nor in favor of legality. (3) is a true straw man, as I wasn’t discussing “many murders,” but mass murders, which is what’s behind this renewed push for tightening regulations on gun ownership. San Bernardino, Sandy Hook, Virginia Tech – all of those killers used semi-automatic weapons. The death tolls in such incidents would likely be capped at a much lower number if semi-automatic weapons were illegal or much harder to obtain.

  4. For someone who makes fun of managers for not being analytical you are doing just the same. Go by the numbers not your emotion to scary looking weapons which have been around since the 60s. If your case is to lower murders why are you wanting to ban an object that doesn’t contribute a relevant amount? Again, a hammer is more deadly than an ar-15 based on the numbers. Why are you punishing the millions of owners who committed no crime?

    Gun purchases are at an all time high and gun deaths are at an all time low per FBI statistics. I’m surprised you are falling fro media hysteria

    • If your case is to lower murders

      Again, that’s a straw man. I haven’t said that was the case. Murder has existed as long as man has existed. If you eliminated all guns, people would kill other people with knives and poisons and whatever else they could use.

      As for “for someone who…” that’s an ad hominem argument. We are discussing a single issue here; what I’ve said about an unrelated topic isn’t relevant here at all.

  5. Isn’t the goal to prevent deaths?

  6. @ Tim – Of course not, their goal is to do as they’re told and for the moment guns are bad since the other side likes them.