Klawchat 5/5/16.

Klaw: An afterlife for a silverfish? No, just Klawchat.

Shane: Will Amed Rosario be a top 50 prospect by end of the season?
Klaw: I think he already was one. We do need to see him promoted rather than beating up a league he already faced last season.

Bob: A couple of colleagues on your network who will remain unnamed (PTI) were speculating yesterday about how many games the Cubs might win. 116? 118? Hey, they’re good and already have 20 wins in the bank but c’mon.
Klaw: Yeah, that’s not your source for baseball analysis. Were they also projecting the Phillies to win 90+?

Josh: How much stock do you put in the July 2 international player rankings? I imagine there is even more variance there with how individual teams value specific players than in the Rule 4 draft
Klaw: Very little, but I’m not criticizing the guys who put those rankings together – you’re talking about mostly 15-year-olds, sometimes kids who haven’t been seen in months because they’ve been locked up already with various not-that-legal deals. It’s an impossible ask.

Aaron S: Heard anything on Harrison Bader? Seems to be doing well at AA after a double promotion and first year after being drafted. Was also one of the 10 youngest AA players at the beginning of the year
Klaw: Problem is he’s not a CF. I think he can hit some, but he’s going to have to rake (and what he’s done so far is very flukish) to be a regular in a corner.

Zach B: How much do you get to scout international prospects given how much time you dedicate to the amateur draft and minor league systems?
Klaw: I see them when they sign. There’s very little value in seeing July 2nd guys now when it’s probably two years before they’re even on the pro prospect radar.

Jack: Any rumors on who the phillies might target with their second round pick?
Klaw: No, nor do I expect to hear anything on picks in the 40s and 50s.

Adam: What is Ben Gamel’s ceiling?
Klaw: Probably everyday player.

Teddy Roosevelt: If I said Phillies took Puk, Reds took Lewis and Braves took Ray, your reaction would be: “absolutely!”, “meh”, or “but, but Groome….”?
Klaw: Lewis at 2 is a reach for me. But if you said Puk-Senzel-Ray, I’d say “OK” and assume the Rockies would take Groome. Lewis has the upside, but he swings and misses too often against bad competition for me to see him as a #2 pick. I’m lighter on him and Senzel than the industry.

Me (Not You): Are we nearing a reappraisal of Lindor now that he’s continuing to hit so well? I knew you were never all that low on his bat, mind you, but this level of offense could allow him to sneak into MVP consideration some years, and that seems surprising.
Klaw: I had him as a top ten prospect in baseball, so I think he’s within the range of what I expected from him. Now, if he hits 20 HR this year, that would be surprising, and yes he’d be a solid MVP candidate if he becomes that kind of guy.

Kareem: Tyler Danish seems to be making some strides repeating AA, is he still solely projectable as a RP?
Klaw: I can’t see him as a starter with that delivery or going through a lineup 3x with his stuff. I could see him as a really effective long guy like Adam Warren last year, making some spot starts, but mostly going through lineups once and getting groundballs.

Keith: Is Severino having issues based on your scouting report ?
Klaw: If you’re saying did my evaluation predict what’s happening now, I think that’s too facile. His stuff looks very straight and mostly up in the zone right now, though, and that is at least partly related to the delivery.

James: With Rutherford already being 19 and Moniak being 17 (for another week), how much would teams value that when drafting?
Klaw: I think most teams have Moniak over Rutherford right now, because Moniak is the better overall athlete AND because he’s over a year younger.

Dylan: Thoughts on the new Radiohead song?
Klaw: It’s certainly interesting.

Joe: Thoughts on Will Craig? 1st round?
Klaw: No. Second round. Grooved swing, feasts a lot on bad pitching, no position.

Anonymous: Isn’t it time to move Benintendi up?
Klaw: It’s been a month, and I don’t object to a team saying a guy should get around the league a little longer before a promotion. He’s not going to spend all year in high-A.

John: Any new information on how Delvin Perez is doing? Are the Reds in on him at #2?
Klaw: I mentioned him in my post this morning. I heard the Reds were in heavy at Caguas this week to watch him.

Kevin: Is Zack Collins gonna go in the top 15, considering his Schwarber-like profile?
Klaw: He’s not like Schwarber, but I’ve heard two teams specifically on him in the top ten, Oakland and possibly the White Sox.

Joetown, CO: I realize the old stat of Total Average isn’t perfect, but isn’t it much better than OPS? Why shouldn’t it be the most common standard of a batter’s production?
Klaw: It’s garbage. Just throwing a bunch of numbers together with no regard to whether they even belong in the equation, let alone whether they’re weighted appropriately.

Konrad: Who can you see the Brewers taking with their first round pick this year?
Klaw: Best player available. That could be Ray, Delvin, maybe Lewis or Senzel. Don’t see Groome getting there. Don’t think they’d take Pint. I wonder if they’d consider Manning, as Ray Montgomery isn’t afraid to take a high-ceiling prep arm.

Dad: Any scenario (besides strategic $ allocation/signability) in which a team should ever go against BPA in the draft?
Klaw: No, you named the only one. And even then, in hindsight, did the Royals do well to reach for Dozier at 8 so they could get Manaea at 34? Dozier is repeating AA now, and may not be anything, while Manaea was a useful trade piece but not quite as good as expected. And at the time that seemed like a really smart strategy on their part.

John: Hey Keith! Thanks for everything that you do for us readers. I was curious if you had considered doing your own podcast like Joe Posnanski does. I really enjoyed it when you had yours through ESPN. Thanks!
Klaw: I have no spare time right now for anything new.

jimmy: Are you concerned about Shelby Miller or Zack Greinke’s starts?
Klaw: Miller I’m concerned about – he doesn’t look right. I wonder if he’s hurt, or at least physically off. Greinke I think will be fine.

Shelby: Is Oakland only targeting college hitters at 6?
Klaw: I think that’s their preference, likely Senzel or Collins, although they had a bunch of guys there to see Manning (who’s local to them, so it’s easier to just drive up to watch him) on Monday when I was there.

Joshua: Keith, what numbers would you see Trea Turner putting up if he were brought up tomorrow? Obviously one answer is “better than Espinosa”, but how much better? Thanks.
Klaw: I think he could post a .340 OBP, steal a bunch of bases, and play above average defense at short right now. That’s worlds better than the zero they’re getting.

Formerly the Smasher: Could the Jays be a landing spot for Ryan Braun?
Klaw: Doubt it. They don’t appear to be a team that’s looking to take on any money, much less a bad contract.

Eric: When scouting amateur pitchers, what is the first thing you look for? Throwing strikes? Stuff?
Klaw: Stuff is the first thing you see, but if the delivery’s bad, I’m a lot less interested.

Dan B: Met you on Market St in Philly this past weekend. Thanks again for the time. Do you think Tommy Joseph can be an average major league first baseman?
Klaw: Yep, good to meet you too – you caught me right as I was stepping into High Street for lunch. I do not think that on Joseph, and he’s got no history of staying healthy, unfortunately.

Joshua: Keith, I saw that you were recently in Sacramento and went to Magpies and enjoyed it. What did you get there, I’ve been meaning to go since they recently moved to that location. Thanks.
Klaw: Pork belly starter, duck confit salad, ice cream sandwich. Hard to beat that.

Kyle: Is this the weakest crop of college pitchers… Ever? Sheffield and Hudson seem to be the consensus 2 and 3 behind Puk, what with Krook/Hansen/Jefferies falling apart or getting hurt. A 6’0″ TJS guy as the best or second-best NCAA pitcher is hard to believe.
Klaw: Don’t agree on Sheffield as 2 or 3. He’s a reliever all the way. I’ve got Sedlock at Illinois over him, and Connor Jones too despite inferior stuff because he can sink it and has starter size. Dane Dunning might be better. Robert Tyler’s got comparable stuff and has a better frame. But yes, the college starter crop is all kinds of terrible. Keep an eye on Corbin Burnes at St. Mary’s – i think he’ll go sooner than we expect because someone will say they’d prefer the safety of the college pitcher to the risk of the high school guy.

Almost Dad: My wife is due in two months. Mother’s day is Sunday. Good move or bad move to recognize her this weekend? I can see +’s and -‘s of each.
Klaw: Good move. Or, bad move to fail to do so, one you will hear about for the next fifty years. Also congratulations.

Mike: Thoughts on Drake Fellows? Top 3 rounds?
Klaw: No, don’t see that.

Jason: This is probably a dumb question, but what do teams do with 16 year olds kids they draft? Do they throw them into Rookie ball? Or do they keep them in extended spring training?
Klaw: Instructs in September, extended spring the following April/May, then rookie ball (GCL or AZL). Rinse, repeat.

Adam: Rumor is Braves want draft picks even if they take on bad contracts…..if they were to take on Braun to get Lucroy and that end of 1st pick what do you think they would have to give up? Newcomb?
Klaw: This isn’t a rumor, nor did I find it newsworthy – almost every team drafting up top wants more picks so they can spread the money around. The Brewers do not have an end of 1st pick they can trade.

Adam: How does Groome compare to Beckett out of High School?
Klaw: Beckett is before my time.

Andrew: With Garret Richards now having some sort of injury, should the Angels sign Tim Lincecum?
Klaw: He’s not going to start, and unless Timmy Jim comes out throwing 92-94 tomorrow I doubt he’s going to get many major-league offers.

Joetown, CO: It’s far less garbage than the illogical OPS and most meaningless batting average. It’s biggest flaw is not weighting a single more than a walk, but otherwise, it tells you how many bases a batter is good for per plate appearance. That’s better than garbage and much better than most stats most commonly used now.
Klaw: No, it’s actually worse than OPS, and that’s saying something. It treats a stolen base the same as a single. It penalizes a hitter for each GIDP, so the same hitter will have a lower TA just because he’s got a slow runner who gets on base a lot hitting in front of him. It’s a brain-dead stat, one that sounds good but makes no logical sense.

Ciscoskid: So Magpie, how was it? I would have sent you to 4 other places had I known. Were you here for the Boras Classic?
Klaw: It was absolutely superb. I doubt I could have had a better meal. I was there Monday to see Matt Manning pitch.

Honest Abe: Is Dave Stewart gonna look at Blair’s numbers at the end of the year, then glance at Shelby’s and then throw his laptop against the wall?
Klaw: I don’t think Stew is the looking-at-numbers sort.

Aa: Where do you think high school teammates, Luca Dalatri and Brandon Martorano, will be picked in the draft?
Klaw: Way below the range I cover.

Richie: I’m not wuite sure what to make of Wuilmer Becerra. On the one hand he’s hitting .400 and his k and bb rates are showing good signs…..on the other hand he’s a supposed power bat who has just 1 hr in his last 73 gms. Should we be concerned, excited, a little of both?
Klaw: Those last 73 games came largely in two homer-suppressing ballparks. He’s also still 21.

Rob: Jose Quintana, probably the most underrated pitcher in the mlb. Gets better and better. Adam Eaton is another White Sox player that flies under the radar.
Klaw: This is Klawchat. This is not RobChat. Try again, this time with a question in there somewhere.

Eric Johnson: Can King Felix survive at 90?
Klaw: Come on, he’s not that old.

Jack: Are the phillies locked in on Puk? Or do they not know yet?
Klaw: They do not know. Nor should they, given the date – it’s may 5th, in case you didn’t know – and the draft class this year.

AD: Ronald Guzman—is his start for real or just SSS? Have you gotten any scouting reports on him?
Klaw: It’s 22 games. Also it’s May 5th.

JR: Feels like there has been a lot of talk about “tanking” this year, I’ve seen a few columns from Buster and others being critical of the strategy. What are your thoughts? I would prefer my team tank and have the opportunity at a high ceiling in a few years, as opposed to signing vets and doom your team to being stuck in middle (not good enough to make postseason, not bad enough to get high draft pick).
Klaw: I don’t think of it as “tanking” like in the NBA, but the current rules around MLB’s draft and international spending provide tremendous incentive for teams to do what the Astros did and now Atlanta, the Brewers, and the Phillies are doing. There is no point in spending money just to get from 68 wins to 72.

Mark: Have you heard any reports about Giolito this Spring? Tiny sample size, but he’s struggled a bit in AA, and I was wondering if he was focusing on the changeup, and/or if he’d had any dip in velocity.
Klaw: I heard Maddux tinkered with his delivery, which, if true, would be the dumbest fucking thing I have ever heard of a pitching coach doing with a prospect, because Giolito’s delivery did not need tinkering.

DanO: Any insight on what the Mets are looking for since they have 2 picks in Round 1? They don’t appear to lean heavily in any one direction from year to year. Nimmo/Cecchini/Smith vs. Conforto.
Klaw: Nimmo was a previous scouting director so don’t lump him in with the others. I think they prefer the safety of bats with the first pick, but are otherwise just best player available. This year that’s probably a bat anyway.

Marshall: Klaw, this question relates to Buxton, because in what I think has almost become a lost year for the franchise that he should be starting in CF every day. Do you believe that a young hitters “confidence” is ever destroyed to the point that they lose the ability to hit. Or (as I believe) is that the player simply never was going to develop the hitting skill set necessary to succeed at the major league level?
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Ryan: How does Mike Soroka’s ceiling compare to the other arms in Atlanta’s sysetem?
Klaw: Lower. Like his arm slot. #rimshot

David/Indiana: Are you a fan of Faulkner? If so, what is your favorite?
Klaw: Yes. Absalom, Absalom is one of my top 20 novels ever.

Alex: Would you vote David Ortiz into the HOF? Will he make it? Edgar Martinez seems to have no chance, but Ortiz is a much bigger part of baseball history.
Klaw: No, I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer even before we talk about the failed test.

Patrick?: Think Zunino will make an impact in the MLB? He is crushing AAA right now. Or is he just a AAAA player?
Klaw: I do think so.

Joe: The Dbacks announcers often use Nick Ahmed, Branon Drury, and Randall Delgado (?) as proof that the Upton trade wasn’t bad. I’m still not happy with the return we got and how the FO did everything they could to run down his value, but how would you say it has ended up over the 3+ seasons since that trade was made?
Klaw: It was a total disaster. They took fifty cents on the dollar for Upton and probably ended up losing a nickel along the way. Players like Ahmed aren’t that hard to find.

Brian: What do you think the Rangers see in Chi Chi Gonzalez? He has never had an out pitch, and yet he was the pitcher they seemed determined to hold on to last year when they were trading away Eickoff, Thompson, Asher, etc.
Klaw: His cutter was an out pitch. Not sure why it hasn’t been so in the upper levels.

tony: Are you going to be on any more game broadcasts this year?
Klaw: Currently scheduled for three more, next one is June 8th.

Jack: Would selecting AJ Puk number 1 at a discounted price be a bad selection?
Klaw: No, not at all. I think taking Lewis there would probably be one, given the contact issues, but you could make a good argument in his favor too. If I could be satisfied that Delvin’s immaturity was not a real impediment to him becoming a star, I’d take him. Best tools in the draft, doesn’t turn 18 till October, stays at shortstop.

Zach: HI Keith, have you caught any of Gray’s first couple starts for CO? Just wondering if there have been any signs if progress there recently.
Klaw: Looked terrible in what I saw – fastball is true and hitters have no trouble seeing it.

Josh K: Still high on Gausman upside?
Klaw: Yes, if healthy, and if the Orioles just leave him the hell alone. Looks like he’s now on the middle of the rubber, not perfect but better than where Buck and company shoved him last year.

James: What’s your take on Sale not saying in so many words that he’s pitching to contact, but rather, finding more “economical” ways to retire batters in order to pitch deeper into games? Seems like a risky tack for a guy who’s good for 11 K/9 all season long.
Klaw: Don’t know what to make of it, although I think the White Sox could certainly ask him not to do that because they might feel they’re better off with him averaging six innings and being more effective when he’s pitching.

Darkwing: Is there any artist (writer, filmmaker, musician, etc) whose work you like, but you don’t like them personally? (ex. I like some of Polanski’s films, but don’t like the guy for obvious reasons)
Klaw: Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris is wonderful but he’s a terrible human being. I even like some Bing Crosby movies but he even copped to being a horrible, abusive father and husband in his first marriage.

Joshy: What do you think about Ronald Acuna? Do you think he could develop some power and become a near 5-tool player?
Klaw: Wouldn’t go that far but I love the bat and the approach for someone so young.

Luke: We already play Ticket to Ride and Carcassone. What’s the next game I should introduce to my 7-year old?
Klaw: Splendor. My daughter loves it.

Louis: How would you grade out Benintendi? 70 hit/60 power/60 run/55 arm/55 fielding?
Klaw: I love Benintendi, but everyone is getting way too excited about a college prospect raking in high-A. He might be a superstar – it wouldn’t really surprise me at all – but I think we need to see him in AA. The SEC to high-A is kind of a lateral move for a 21-year-old.

Harry: How many mock drafts are you doing, and when is the first one?
Klaw: Four. First one May 18th. Usually then it’s two weeks till the second one, one about 4-5 days before the draft, then one the morning of the draft.

J-Doug: To your readers who think TA is better than OPS, this has been studied to death by sabermetricians and OPS, while not great, beats true average every time (predicting the number of runs scored in an inning about 30% better). If you really want an offense stat that doesn’t mess with the denominator, try wOBA.
Klaw: Yep, wOBA, while not quite intuitive, answers the question of hitter value (in a rate stat) far better.

Jim: Think Dakota Hudson will go to the Red Sox at number 12?
Klaw: I think he goes in the 10-17 range. Wouldn’t get any more specific yet.

TestaDuda: I’ve heard early reports that next year’s draft class is better than this one. Do you agree and if so is it 2011 better? 2005 better? Just looking for a comp or context.
Klaw: The very top of next year’s draft is better. I don’t know about the depth, but there are more guys who could emerge as strong 1-1 candidates next year than there are for this year.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Gleyber Torres, yes it’s early, but is it still early? He’s super young for the level, but the results aren’t good.
Klaw: He’s super young for the level. So is Devers. Torres is four months older than Blake Rutherford and three years younger than Dansby Swanson.

Jeff: Speaking of Woody Allen – did you read his Hollywood Reporter interview that was just recently published? Spoiler alert: He’s still weird.
Klaw: Beyond creepy, although it certainly seemed to fit my own suspicions that he’s some kind of narcissist and/or sociopath.

Harold V: I like how you didn’t include the Cubs on your list of teams that have tanked.
Klaw: When did they tank?

Jay: Matt Cain still seems to have velocity and movement with his pitches – but not command. Given his track record, wouldn’t you expect him to regain the command over time?
Klaw: Velocity is down and if there’s indeed more effort required just to get that velocity then that’s going to kill command. I’m out.

fill: how has aj minter looked and whats his potential
Klaw: I have no new reports on him (or a lot of guys yet – it’s early and I’m draft-focused) but I saw him pre-TJ and saw a middle reliever at best. Short guy, bad delivery, was 90-92 after the first inning.

Mitch: What round will Cooper Johnson be drafted in? Great defensive tool but the bat is a ?
Klaw: Second round. Maybe sandwich because there’s no catchers in the class. I think you nailed the summary on him.

mcf1417: Who are some of those 1-1 types for 2017? Inquiring Braves fans need to know.
Klaw: Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright at Vandy. Alex Faedo at Florida. Alex Lange at LSU. Tanner Houck at Missouri. And that’s without even touching the HS crop, like the socal pitcher Hunter Greene who’s already 94-96.

Drew: Thank you for singing the praises of Empire Falls. I just finished it and loved it. Which of his should I read next?
Klaw: Straight Man is the funniest. Nobody’s Fool is probably the next-best novel.

rico: what’s the point of a mock draft 4 days before and then the morning of? what changes in 4 days regarding ability?
Klaw: A mock draft is not about ability. It’s a projection of who’s taking which player. This confusion comes from idiots posting “mock drafts” months ahead that are nothing more than lists of names with zero information on who teams would actually consider taking.

Youth_Movement: What are your thoughts these days about Dom Smith? You think he’ll be able to “prevent his shirt buttons from popping out”?
Klaw: He’s been raking and showing more power. Still heavy, still playing good defense at first.

Greg: Seems like a lot of the industry has become more optimistic on Kyle Lewis as the spring goes on. I know you were down on him, and I’m not suggesting you should change your mind because others have, but I’m curious if you’re at least somewhat more optimistic on him?
Klaw: No, I think he is the same player he’s always been. Maybe folks see the paucity of good college bats and figure after Ray and perhaps Senzel (more certain, lower ceiling) Lewis is next on the list so you’d better learn to like him. They’re not entirely wrong if that’s the case.

Rian: corey ray is what type of player in 5 years
Klaw: I’ve had a bunch of people compare him to Ray Lankford. I think that’s a reasonable optimistic scenario.

James: Is it foolish to think Berrios could be a No. 1 someday? Or are the tools just not there?
Klaw: The stuff is not there. Fastball is flat. Offspeed stuff is certainly good, but not good enough to make him top 15 in the majors.

Greg: You’re high on the Atlanta system, obviously. When do you see them back in competition for a playoff spot?
Klaw: Probably three years out from that. Depends on whether Liberty gives them some money to spend once they’re in the new stadium.

JR: Draft prospects, minor leaguers, major leaguers – how are you able to keep up with all these players?
Klaw: For the next few weeks I won’t do much work on anything but the draft. I can catch up on pro stuff after that, and by then my friends who are pro scouts will have worked through a lot of their assigned coverage anyway.

JD: SSS aside, anything (team, player, trend) that’s surprised you so far in the MLB season?
Klaw: The White Sox look like they might be sufficiently different that I would tell their fans yes, they’re legitimate contenders, probably better than everyone forecasted.

Paul/DC: Have you ever read any of Tim O’Brien books? Going After Cacciato and The Things They Carry are two of my favorite books
Klaw: Read the latter. It was good, not top 100 for me.

Brad: Do you ever wonder if this chat is one person just using different names?
Klaw: Actually this chat is twelve different AI scripts all posting as “Klaw.”

Oren: Is it feasible to hold hope for Dylan Bundy succeeding at this point? Being out of options is such an additional challenge.
Klaw: He’s not healthy. He has calcification in his shoulder, and now his stuff is down across the board. He’s gotten just four swings and misses on his fastball all season. I’m sorry to see it, but I can’t find reasons for optimism right now.

Matt: I’ve loved almost every book and board game recommendation from you, but Absalom Absalom just did not do it for me. It was such a slog, boring and kinda difficult to read. It seems very different than most of the other books on your list. Why the high praise?
Klaw: It is indeed difficult to read, but I find the prose scintillating and the story arc – the fall of the South from the end of the Civil War through the 1920s, told through the decline of one family – absolutely perfect.

James: What bothers me about you Tyreek Hill stance is what happens to his victim and child? They deserve financial means – a significant piece of his NFL salary. I’d rather he continue to seek therapy and pay for the care of an innocent child with a 500K salary than be barred from the league and have his victim and child receive nothing.
Klaw: Because therapy doesn’t do jack. Men who choke women are not fixable; choking itself is a huge predictor of future attempts to kill. Your argument could easily be used to argue against any abuser going to jail, because instead he could be working and paying child support. And free to kill someone, too.

Rob: Is there any hope for Jorge Soler? He shows patience and looks the part but watching him swing at curve balls is really, really ugly.
Klaw: Yes, but he’ll need to play every day somewhere.

Josh: Do you think Urias or DeLeon will/should be called up this year? And in what role(s)?
Klaw: I think both will, probably both in the rotation at least temporarily while the Dodgers wait for the veteran starters to return from the DL. I think DeLeon might be better suited to long relief to break him in.

Julia: Dusty Baker. Just…why. That’ s my only question. WHY. (you can insert any phrase involving unbelievable decisions that somehow haven’t hurt the team much yet)
Klaw: Because veterans and leadership and it’s not even like he says stuff that makes sense any more.

Kyle: Thoughts on the connection between the showcase circuit and arm injuries? About halfway through The Arm and curious of your thoughts
Klaw: Agree completely with Jeff’s premise there. He’s right about every target in there, from the scouts who flood these events (I go to a couple too, because the kids are there) to Perfect Game’s model aiming at younger and younger kids. We truly do need these kids to pitch less, and to stop trying to show off for us by throwing harder, which means putting the radar guns away until they’re 17 or 18.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you as always for your questions. I’ll be back next Thursday, by which point Eric and I will have posted top 100 ranking for the draft too.