I said I wouldn't go beyond $6-7 million and one year for Marlon Byrd, but Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro just couldn't help himself and signed the outfielder to a two-year, $16 million deal that is a little overpriced but also indicates that Amaro believes, in the face of a lot of contrary evidence, that Byrd's fluke 2013 performance is real.

Byrd will play his two years for the Phillies at ages 36 and 37, well into the decline years for any hitter, and the time when even premium hitters see their chances of going over the cliff into irrelevance increase quickly. While Byrd had a 4-WAR season in 2013, it was built on a huge BABIP spike (.353) that was well out of line with his entire history in the majors (.325 career BABIP), and on him staying healthy for 140 games for just the third time in his career.