Klawchat 11/19/15.

Klaw: You gotta go for what you know. Klawchat.

Ryan: What makes you such a believer in Javier Guerra’s power? There have been lots of prospects that hit for power in Greenville, then have it never show up again. Plus he has a distinct lack of power in batting practice, and all his home runs were hit right down the line.
Klaw: I’m not sure what other prospects you meant, or if any of them were 19. I see power in the swing, and he hit for just as much power on the road as he did at home. Home runs down the line are still home runs, last I checked.

Colin: Kapler or Roberts?
Klaw: I don’t know who’ll get it, and knowing nothing of Roberts as a candidate I can’t express a preference either.

SPC: Do you think what Matt Duffy did is sustainable? Improve?
Klaw: I can’t forecast any improvement given how much better he was in the majors than in the minors.

Matt: Are advisers necessary for college players in draft process?
Klaw: Hell yeah. Otherwise negotiating against the team(s) would be like bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.

Adam: How long before Ozzie Albies is ready?
Klaw: Two years.

Michael: What teams have the prospects necessary to land Jose Fernandez if he is traded? Cubs? Red Sox? Astros? Dodgers? Wouldn’t this have been a better use of Margot and Guerra(and Allen and Asuaje) than trading for Kimbrel? Fernandez seems like the perfect Dombrowski target.
Klaw: Yes, if that package would have landed Fernandez, it’s obviously a better use of the resources – but I would guess the Marlins would aim even higher, asking for Moncada for example. Don’t see the Dodgers doing it. Cubs, Red Sox, Astros all could. Braves could but wouldn’t. Rangers absolutely could. Angels absolutely could not.

Chris: Kolby Allard with a 2nd back surgery already, how concern should Braves be?
Klaw: I think that’s his first. March injury was a stress reaction. Not a concern.

Jeremy: what’s the optimal use of Swihart/Vasquez (once healthy). a trade? or having Swihart split time at DH/1B?
Klaw: I think it’s a waste of value to let Swihart play somewhere other than C, so I’d think about a trade at some point. Swihart has superstar potential, but perhaps a bit more risk (volatility in potential outcomes).

Matt: Price, Greinke, Cueto, Zimmerman. Your gut, who ends up where?
Klaw: I really don’t speculate on that stuff, sorry.

Jeremy: can you give your hypothetical 10-man HOF ballot? and full ballot if there were no restrictions?
Klaw: Raines, Bagwell, Piazza, Griffey, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina, Trammell, Edgar. I could add one or two names beyond that, such as Walker, but I don’t feel like anyone HAS to be on there who isn’t.

Luis: Do you think it’s crazy that Hoffman and Wagner are getting HoF consideration? Really their only argument lies in the worst stat in baseball. Besides the fact that relievers don’t pitch enough, I find it baffling that pitchers who weren’t even good enough to crack the starting rotation could get Hall votes. We don’t have to acknowledge every role in Cooperstown with a plaque. We don’t put bench players, pinch-hitters, or pinch-runners in the Hall of Fame, and for good reason. I would argue that pitching so seldom sets the bar extremely, extremlely high to merit induction, and the only full-time reliever to have ever reached that mark is Mariano Rivera.
Klaw: It redefines what the Hall of Fame is about – or, I guess, it continues the redefinition that came with the insane induction of Bruce Freaking Sutter, who barely cleared 1000 innings pitched. Rivera is a yes for me, and that’s it for modern relievers.

Gary: I saw your write up on the AFL and your mention that Rowdy Tellez has trouble with fastballs. Yet, he still seemed to swing it well down there. Do you mean he will be able to hit some of the average heaters he will see in the minors, but will be overmatched by the better stuff in the majors?
Klaw: I’m assuming you’re scouting the stat line. He was behind better fastballs all week when I was there, just as he was in high school. It’s a slow bat.

richard: Does someone claim Becerra if the Mets expose him in the Rule 5? I think yes.
Klaw: I think yes and he gets returned. Can’t carry that guy all year. The rule 5 rules are kind of a mess – they expose Latin American kids to the draft too soon, but absolutely screw college draft picks with the extra year before they can be taken in the rule 5 (extra vs the old system, I mean).

Fitz: Is there any hope for Drew Hutchison? He had a pretty strong 2014 and completely fell off the map in 2015. That adjustment he made to his slider in the 2nd half of 2014 somehow disappeared this season.
Klaw: You answered it the way I would. If they find that missing slider – perhaps it was lost at customs? – then he can be that same guy again. Otherwise I think he’s a reliever.

Oilcan23: I understand that you think the Red Sox gave up too much for Kimbrell, and I really do understand why. That said, does it matter that the pieces the Red Sox gave up probably wouldn’t have played a Fenway over the next three years (maybe Margot makes it)? Do you place any credence in the idea that the Red Sox are a win-now franchise that can’t wait for players like Margot to develop when they have pressing needs today? I can’t speak for all Red Sox fans, but I can’t imagine “trust the process” going over all that well in Boston.
Klaw: No, it doesn’t matter, because the value of those assets they dealt is independent of whether they’re blocked in Fenway. If you insist on trading Margot, then get a fair return for him. They didn’t.

Bill G.: Keith, thanks for doing these chats. If you were starting a team, who would you want long term, Lindor or Corey Seager. Thanks.
Klaw: Seager. Nothing against Lindor, though.

Brandon: Who is most likely to get a shot in Houston first… Tyler White or AJ Reed? Reed looks like the better long-term bet to be good, but White has hit EVERYWHERE. Thanks, Keith.
Klaw: I think they give White a shot first because he’s a lesser prospect and they’ll be more concerned about manipulating Reed’s service time than White’s.

Jay: What are your thoughts on the Nats signing Heyward and moving Harper to CF?
Klaw: Certainly makes them a much better team. I believe Harper can play CF. At that point I’d look to trade Taylor, though.

Devin: Hey Keith, I’ve read a few reputable scouting reports on Jorge Lopez and they are saying he could be a solid #2 or #3 starter in the mlb. Do you share the same opinion? If so, what about him makes him a front/midldle of the rotation type of guy?
Klaw: A two seems a bit optimistic given his stuff, but he can really pitch. I see a three, mid-rotation type with a lot of above-average weapons but nothing that’s an absolute out pitch, and good feel and control. Good pick in the second round – projectable HS arm who came along “slowly” relative to what we demand out of prospects these days but actually advanced at a perfectly reasonable pace.

Tom: Is there any chance that during the CBA negotiations that the union tries to upgrade pay for minor leaguers as part of a proposal to raise the percentage of revenue spent on players? Or, is this a non starter since the union only represents the players already in the majors?
Klaw: Union has zero incentive to do this.

Buck: Mallex Smith, Roman Quinn, Socrates Brito – who’s more likely to become a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter for his team?
Klaw: Probably Smith. Not wild about any of them.

Joe: I saw on Twitter that the White Sox are willing to trade Avisail Garcia. Is that actually news? Aren’t most teams always willing to trade fringe major leaguers who are running low on options?
Klaw: Yes, although maybe it’s news in the sense that he was kind of hyped by his clubs (Detroit and Chicago) a few years back.

Steve: Would Papi get your HOF vote?
Klaw: No. Adjusted for era and position, it’s not a Hall of Fame offensive career.

Dave: I’m about 3/4 through reading “Crime and Punishment”, and I’m surprised by how witty and funny it is. I was expecting a dreary slog, but it’s been delightful (and exciting in places). Is there a book you’ve read out of a feeling of obligation (“I should really read that,”) that especially surprised you?
Klaw: Middlemarch and Tess of the d’Urbervilles. The latter was assigned to me in high school and I watched the movie instead. I read it when I was 33 and was blown away by the prose and the use of irony.

Kevin: Do you expect Beede or Blackburn to be called up to the show in 2016?
Klaw: Blackburn yes, Beede no.

Fonz: If baseball did not exist, do you think your career today would be in writing?
Klaw: I think now that it’s what I was always meant to do, but it’s not the career I originally chose for myself, largely because I was trying to meet others’ expectations for me.

Michael: There seem to be two approaches related to the fragility of pitchers: draft a ton of them and play the numbers OR value position players and hope to find pitchers to plug in. Do you prefer either approach?
Klaw: I’d be disinclined to go heavy on pitching early in the draft; there are always exceptions, but I’d lean hitter up top and look for projectable HS arms after the first or the top two rounds.

Fonz: Now that he’s improved contact, do you foresee Bogaerts starting to pull / drive the ball more, or has he transformed into a slap-the-ball-to-the-opposite field guy?
Klaw: I think the power’s still there, but as you said, he had to work on improving his contact first to get to that power.

Jay: Did you factor in the cost of draft pick forfeiture in the free agent rankings? Seems like that would sway the choice towards Price over Greinke if they were close to a coin flip to start.
Klaw: No, and I didn’t factor in any estimate of cost. It was strictly about on-field value.

Matt: Nothing says Thanksgiving like the xenophobia running rampant in this country. When this topic comes up at the dinner table, and it will, how do I keep my composure?
Klaw: Don’t – just serve kebab halabi made with turkey, some labneh, maybe some falafel…

Ken: assuming McCann is not blocking him, is Sanchez ready to catch full time or still need work defensively? If so, is he the back up this year?
Klaw: Still think he needs work defensively.

Derek Harvey: Do you think Trevor Bauer has room to improve or is back-end starter his likely role/caliber from now on.
Klaw: If he ever finds more control, he could have a huge breakout year. I have no sense of when or how that might occur, though. Remember when some folks argued he had to be the first pick over Gerrit Cole in 2011, based just on the stats? That was fun.

Archie: Is Herrera the starting 2B for the Mets next year? What could be expected from him?
Klaw: I think he could be, although this dalliance with Zobrist could affect those plans.

Zirinsky: What are you making for Thanksgiving dinner (assuming you’re cooking)?
Klaw: I am. I’m going to spatchcock the turkey (NSFW), and sides will include stuffing (at least one, maybe a second with gluten-free cornbread as we will have two guests who can’t eat wheat), a warm potato salad, roasted brussels sprouts, a beet dish, possibly a kale Caesar with duck confit (if I can get the duck legs), the dish-that-must-not-be-named (initials are g.b.c.), and at least one more vegetable side. Desserts will be pumpkin pie, probably apple pie, and a GF chocolate tart with an oat-nut crust.

Thomas: Do you see JD Davis a a future big league regular? If not, is it his bat or seeming lack of a position that would hold him back?
Klaw: Below. Little of both.

Diana G: I agree with the Kimbrel comments, but if he saves four WS games does the end justify the means?
Klaw: Not for me. For the Red Sox, perhaps.

Anonymous: Lance McCullers, you’ve said before you see him as a RP. Did he do anything this year to convince you he can stick in the rotation? Do you believe in the changeup?
Klaw: Three pitches are all there. Long arm action is tough to repeat and explains the below-average command.

ds: Music question – Have you listened to Wolf Alice before, your thoughts?
Klaw: Really liked it. Top ten album of the year for me.

Diana G: Any way to identify who may be a late blooming outlier like Arieta, Bautista, etc? Is it as simple as better coaching?
Klaw: Change of scenery, adding a pitch, tweaking a delivery or a swing, getting healthy, growing up … I try to tab some breakout guys every year, but those two you named were so completely out of nowhere that I didn’t see either one coming, and didn’t buy into Bautista for a while even after he was clearly a star.

Larry: Are you concerned with your cholesteral level? You seem to eat a lot of high-cholesteral foods, at least according to your Instragram
Klaw: My cholesterol is consistently in the 160-170 range, because genes play a big part in it. Also, I’m not a huge fan of food-scolds … it’s my body, I’ll eat whatever the hell I want to eat, and if it doesn’t affect you it’s not your business.

Corey: Darren O’Day looking for 4/$28m – 36 Soria too. With the trend to power pens, is either guy worth that sort of investment ?
Klaw: Neither, but Soria in particular seems nuts – he was borderline replacement level last year and his stuff is down. Teams have to see that, even with the Proven Closer tag.

Matt: I’m trying to eat healthier. What are some good vegetables to roast?
Klaw: Anything that isn’t leafy roasts well. I love to roast broccoli and cauliflower at 450, lightly oiled and salted, till brown and caramelized.

Eric: Maybe you can explain what the Braves are doing? I get “rebuilding” but trading players like Wood and Simmons seems a little odd for a rebuilding club. They were controlled for another 5 seasons.
Klaw: The Wood trade was about Olivera, whom I think Atlanta completely overrates. Simmons was about getting those two arms back (Newcomb and Ellis), and I think an underestimation of Simmons’ future offense. You named my two least favorite moves of their last twelve months.

Corey: Frazier’s rough 2nd half a red flag or a worthwhile trade target for higher end prospects ?
Klaw: I think it’s more fair to say that his huge first half was a fluke and not representative of a new true talent level. Still a good player and worth flipping a couple of prospects for.

Marco: I have read, and also believe, that Greinke will age really well because of the way he pitches, which can withstand declining stuff. Do you see Price the same way? He has 4 solid pitches….will he be able to work off of declining velocity over the next few seasons?
Klaw: I think Price has the intellect and the control to be highly effective even when his velocity drops, but it will require a greater adjustment for him than it will for Greinke.

Silv: Honest question: explain to me how Rich Hill, after a few months of the absolute definition of small sample size and totally inconsistent with his career numbers, gets 6MM guaranteed and David Carpenter, who was anywhere from pretty damned good to mediocre for the past three full seasons, is DFA’ed?
Klaw: Fair question. But if you watched those few starts, he did look like a completely different pitcher, and pitchers are more subject to those wild swings in value that Diana G asked about earlier than hitters are. I thought it was a good signing.

Master Pau: Does Eddy Martinez have star potential my friends think he is going to be a bust given he only signed for 3 million. Saying if he was a better prospect he would go for 10+ Million
Klaw: Something weird happened behind the scenes; I thought he had a $10 million deal with a specific club, yet it never came to fruition. He’s a potential star for me.

Craig: Does Javier Bentancourt project enough power to at least become a doubles guy or is he always going to project as a slap hitter?
Klaw: Line drive guy. Doubles but not homers. Can really play the heck out of 2b. Need to see who the two PTBNLs in the deal are to have a decent opinion on it though.

Larry: Brad Zimmer or Frazier?
Klaw: Zimmer.

Jake: Keith, I know you generally don’t like to use subjective measures in your evaluations, but don’t you think someone like Ortiz deserves some modicum of consideration based on matter that might be more subjective? I mean, isn’t the fact that it would be impossible to write the history of baseball from 2000-2015 without mention of Ortiz’s accomplishments, especially in the postseason?
Klaw: I assume the Hall (I haven’t been in decades) has exhibits on the various postseasons. Celebrate him there.

Steve: How do you expect Zobrist to age over a 4 year deal?
Klaw: Like a fine wine … that has been exposed to the wrong bacteria.

DodgerFan101: Do you think Pederson and DeLeon would be enough to land Shelby Miller?
Klaw: I don’t. I think it’s a good offer, though.

Ryan: At what age can I start reading to my daughter that would actually benefit her?
Klaw: I’ve been reading to my daughter since she was two. Back then I think she just liked having me in the bed with her before she went to sleep. Now of course she’s locked into the stories.

Archie: Are the Reds stretching out Finnegan to start? If not, would he make sense to close w/Chapman presumably being traded?
Klaw: He has to be a closer. Can’t start IMO.

James: Matt – your answer should be – Thank God we killed hundreds of thousands of Indians and Mexicans before the Internet.
Klaw: And then serve the popcorn course.

Corey: Benintendi ready by 2017, fast-tracked like Conforto ? And where would they put him – CF and move Betts to RF ?
Klaw: I’d treat him like the Cubs treated Schwarber. Leave him in CF, move him later when it becomes necessary. Might just end up trade bait, but he’s worth more as a proven CF in the minors.

Addoeh: Mmm, G.B.C.!
Klaw: No. Too much bread, and not even good bread, relative to everything else.

Fitz: Do you think Tony LaCava becomes GM long-term, or does Shapiro bring in someone external?
Klaw: I think they should keep him, but it sounds like they won’t. I saw a Josh Byrnes rumor this morning, which doesn’t make sense to me; I don’t see what he brings that Lacava doesn’t already provide, and Byrnes has had two poor experiences as GM already.

Jon: Keith, you talked in your Periscope chat yesterday about how it would be creepy to game with ballplayers. A friend of mine has suggested I game with you (I live in Lancaster) but it feels the same way to me, a little fanboyish maybe. Am I wrong?
Klaw: Not at all. I’ve played games with a couple of readers over the years. Also, I own the game Lancaster and haven’t played it. So let’s make that happen. I need some folks to help me test all these games to review!

Chris: I get the idea of listening on everyone, but not sure I understand trading Miller. Very reasonable contract, and I thought at the deadline last yr the Yanks were trying to ADD another top reliever a la KC
Klaw: Unless they think something’s wrong with him. Then I could understand it.

John: Freeman shouldn’t be off limits, right? Need to go full rebuild (given return value, of course)
Klaw: Right. In for a penny, in for a pound.

Adam Trask: What’s your Rx for getting more African-Americans into baseball?
Klaw: No easy answer to that. Have to make the game more accessible at the youth level, because kids who play it will be fans of it. But attending MLB games is prohibitively expensive for a wide swath of the population (of all races, of course), and that is going to lose a lot of fans to more affordable alternatives.

RBI, Wins, & Saves: Ah, HOF time, when the rest of the baseball world aside from you, Klaw, bows and worships at our feet! Did you see our new favorite HOF voter who included Smith, Hoffman, AND Wagner on his ballot? Now if we can only get Tommy John and Jim Kaat in through the Veterans Committee…
Klaw: I thought I was rid of you three when we left ESPN’s chat module.

Marco: Is it better to have a plus changeup or a plus breaking ball?
Klaw: Neither. It’s just good to have a plus offspeed pitch.

Alex: How do you split the oven time between the turkey and side dishes on Thanksgiving, without either getting cold?
Klaw: Turkey comes out, gets covered to keep the heat in, get the sides right in the oven. By the time the sides come out 30-40 minutes later the turkey is still hot and ready to slice. Also, I will serve a couple of room temp sides – the Caesar, the beet dish I have planned, the potato salad (served with a warm bacon-mustard dressing).

Addoeh: Never been to Cooperstown. Worth going once?
Klaw: The problem is it is located 80 miles from East Nowhere.

Jon: Keith, you mentioned yesterday about how you felt it would be creepy to game with ballplayers. Why do you think it would be different for you to invite readers to play?
Klaw: I am friendly with a bunch of players and was being somewhat facetious about that – I specifically said it would be creepy to be hanging out in the clubhouse playing a boardgame with them, mostly because I feel like the clubhouse is their place and I’m intruding.

Ron: Klaw, you seem to have a good sense of humor, but also some very progressive sensibilities. Which makes me curious how you feel about some of the “edgy” comics of today that are so successful – Amy Schumer, Louis CK, et. al. who are considered these comic geniuses, but also joke about language and topics that I would presume you do not have a sense of humor about.
Klaw: I know you’ve asked this before but I don’t have a great answer because I don’t know what material you mean. I have heard some of Louis C.K.’s stuff that was hilarious, and then I read about the allegations of harassment (Defamer had them earlier this year) and couldn’t call myself a fan any more.

Tom: Is Ahmed the best SS in the NL, now that Simmons is gone? If not, who is?
Klaw: Defensively? Probably Crawford. Speaking of whom, that contract he got seems to price in a little more power than I think you can reasonably expect from him going forward.

Jonny: How do you evaluate a guy like Ian Desmond? Do you write off the first half of 2015 as an aberration, and assume he’s one of the best SS in the game? Or do you assume he’s on a quick downward slide?
Klaw: Almost certainly better than he was in 2015, but I’d price him at some discount from the player I thought he was coming out of 2014. How much of a discount, I’m not sure. That’s a better question for an MLB analytics department.

Jay: Can you include overall (and optionally on the tools as well) grades with the prospect rankings? That would be a better reflection of value of the prospect than a relative ranking for a particular point in time which is dependent on the strength/weakness of other prospects.
Klaw: I won’t do that. I think they get misused and misinterpreted, and if I’m writing a couple of hundred words on each player I’d rather you read those than focus on a two-digit number.

John C: Most liberal scribe – you or Rob Neyer?
Klaw: I don’t know Rob’s politics. People who call me “liberal” are off base unless they mean the term in the classical sense, which today is somewhere closer to libertarian and combines ideas that are found on both sides of the center, from lower or less invasive taxation to social justice and equality.

Josh: Do you see Brandon Mauer being able to transition back into the rotation, or should the Pads keep him in the pen?
Klaw: Two pitch guy equals pen for me.

Bob: Thanks for the heads-up on the Ruhlman 20 special on Kindle… salting meat and eggs well ahead of time has already yielded some great results. Tried the short ribs… any suggestions on the next recipe to try in the book?
Klaw: Any of the duck recipes, especially the braised legs.

Paul Furlong: Then you are not eating Chicago Pizza!!!! Chicago pizza is like a pie crust. Not bread. Cheese and crust
Klaw: Pizza crust is bread. It’s yeast, water, flour, salt. That’s bread.

Archie: I know he’s still a few years away, but what do you think the Cubs do with Gleyber Torres? Trade bait?
Klaw: Two years out from that point, I think. Potential superstar whom I’d be loath to trade now for fear that I’d be selling too low, because he’s more potential than anything at this point. He’s wildly advanced for his age.

Anthony: Any thoughts on the Rangers/Mariners trade? I know it was minor, but Wilhelmsen is a nice add to a young, hard throwing bullpen. Possibly allows them to trade their “proven closer” for another piece or two.
Klaw: I’m also not much of a Martin fan – great defender who can’t hit. And I heard the PTBNL Texas is receiving is someone of value too.

Tom: You mentioned below that attending an MLB game is prohibitively expensive. I’ve always heard that ticket prices are not related to player salaries. So what drives it? Simply that MLB (and other pro sports) have found enough people to pay what they’re charging?
Klaw: Exactly (the latter). MLB teams are quasi-monopolists and set prices to maximize revenues. They don’t need the hoi polloi to attend games unless those folks are going to buy a lot of beer and food.

Brian: Could Swihart be the centerpiece of a trade for Jose Fernandez?
Klaw: In theory, yes. He’s good enough to be the centerpiece. Whether the Marlins would want him as such is something I don’t know.

alex: You mentioned that you saw Trey Mancini as a AAAA guy– what are the things that are holding him back– walk rate, etc? thanks
Klaw: Bad swing and lack of athleticism.

TJ: Had the conversation at work- what was your favorite Thanksgiving dish when you were a kid? Mine was the stuffing my mom made- loved it so much she had to make an extra side of it to keep me from devouring the turkey like a jackal…
Klaw: I’m Italian so Thanksgiving in my house always started with a pasta dish, usually baked ziti, which at the time I loved. I really don’t eat that kind of food any more, though.

James: Teheran and Newcomb to LA for Seager, who hangs up?
Klaw: Dodgers. They’re not trading him unless it’s for someone like Trout.

Oren: Will Gregory Polanco ever hit lefties?
Klaw: Yeah, i think he’s got tons of improvement ahead of him. That’s one guy I am not worried about (yet, I can always start worrying later).

Alex: Who will the Braves deal next? Do you think Jenkins, Sims, and Newcomb will play for Atlanta at some point this
Klaw: Sims and Jenkins might. Newcomb isn’t close to MLB ready yet. He’s not a sure thing IMO, although I know Atlanta loves him. Command isn’t there yet and it’s not something that they might fix with a delivery tweak.

Brandon: Assuming Boston needs pitching, what do you believe would have been fair return for Margot, Guerra, Asuaje, Allen? Short term control, 200-IP SP (i.e. Shelby Miller)? Mid-tier SP on undervalued contract (i.e. Julio Teheran, Jose Quintana)? All-star, non-arb eligible SP (i.e. Sonny Gray)?
Klaw: If I were Atlanta I would have jumped at that offer for Miller. Two potential impact everyday guys, a likely UT who might hit his way into regular status at 2b, and a quality 18-yo arm. Seems like a great return.

Roke: Have you played Twilight Struggle? I would think it would be right up your alley.
Klaw: No – I’m not really into games that typically take two hours or more.

Kay: Crazy for thinking Conforto will be more valuable than Schwarber, despite less power? He takes excellent at bats, have decent pop, and actually has a position. Schwarber has DH written all over him
Klaw: I think Schwarber is a LF in the long run, but Conforto will be a better defender and I’ll bet on him to have higher OBPs, whereas Schwarber will hit more homers. Not a crazy thought but I think it’s close.

michael: hi keith – saw ur comment re: power that you’re not sure we’ll be repeatable being priced into crawford’s sf contract. based upon that, do you think it’s a slight overpay or a massive overpay at $15M per FA season. The $5M and $8M salaries seemed in line with MLBTR’s arbitration estimates.
Klaw: Slight overpay. Defense should make the in years good value. Out years are what concern me.

Matt: International scouting – if a team like the Cubs or Dodgers goes big and then is out for 2 years, will they trim down the amount of international scouting staff they have? Or continue to deploy those same folks just to gather info for potential trades in the future since somebody is signing these guys?
Klaw: No because you scout guys down there starting at age 14 now. It’s the most incompetently designed system I can imagine.

Chris: Thoughts on Jon Gant and Rob Whalen? They seem like (at the least) useful relievers, which is a nice get for half-seasons of Uribe and Johnson.
Klaw: Yep, that’s about right.

JT: You mentioned Italian thanksgiving below. Ever had a pizelle? It’s a cookie my grandma makes dozens of every holiday season.
Klaw: Yes, I have. Never made them because you need a specialized iron for them and I don’t need more gadgets.

Jon: So assuming I start to feel OK about the whole idea of gaming with you, what’s the best way to contact you if I am not a social media user?
Klaw: Leave a comment anywhere on the dish with your email address. I’ll send you through the government’s vetting system and you’ll hear from me in 18 to 24 months.

Ray: Cody Bellinger – is he an org guy, every day regular, or future all star? 20+ HR power in that bat?
Klaw: i don’t think he’s a regular, or maybe I should say I didn’t, as even adjusting for league and park that’s a nice season for a 19-year-old in high-A. I believe he’s going to end up a full-time 1B, and he has to hit a lot more to be a regular there.

Jeff: Klaw, thanks for answering my question on Twitter re: whether or not you care if a HoF candidate has failed a drug test. Could you briefly expand on your answer, as far as how that information affects your ultimate conclusion? Do you treat players differently if one failed the “anonymous” testing and got outed, as opposed to someone who failed after the new drug policies were implemented?
Klaw: I think what I said was that I don’t care about PED usage in general. I treat all unfounded accusations as bullshit. A failed test is the one thing I might consider because it is within baseball – Bonds’ grand jury testimony was outside of the game’s jurisprudence and should never have become public anyway under federal (?) law, so I think it’s improper to consider it on two separate grounds. Palmeiro flunking a test is hard evidence, and for a player where I might be on the fence about voting for him, I’d consider it. But if a player never flunked a test, rumors and speculations are best flushed down the toilet.

Chris: Reasonable return for Aybar for Braves? Feel like they gotta flip him.
Klaw: He makes no sense for them and he isn’t even very good. One mid-tier prospect would be enough.

Kay: Why have teams moved away from using platoons? If you lack a star caliber player, I feel like you can combine a pair of useful guys into star level production by hiding their weaknesses.
Klaw: Having 12 pitchers on the roster means 13 hitters. In the AL, that’s four bench six spots, and one goes to the backup catcher, while another has to go to someone who can play short. Not much room for platoons. I agree with you that they’re really useful, but I’d also limit the bullpen to six guys and ensure that I had at least one long reliever at all times.

Rob: If the Yankees intent is to keep Sanchez, wouldn’t it make sense to begin giving him some reps at 1B to turn him into more of a Victor Martinez-type player, when he was younger. 50 games at catcher, 40 games at 1B (against lefties to sit Bird) 60 games at DH?.
Klaw: I agree and perhaps they’ll do that now, but I have a feeling that all of the hype now about him being better behind the plate – he was never as bad as reputed, and now he’s not as good as they claim – is an attempt to boost his trade value. He can hit and has power, and it’s a plus arm, but long-term he might not be a catcher at all.

Brad: Isan Diaz have huge upside with the bat?
Klaw: Huge upside? No.

Kyle: How does JBJ’s trade value compare to the returns for Martin and Hicks? Bit higher?
Klaw: More than Martin for sure. Maybe comparable to Hicks – Hicks has better tools overall, JBJ has a shorter period of big-league performance.

Chris Plouffe: Can Max Fried become an above average starter in your opinion, or is he headed to the pen?
Klaw: He’s been hurt for over a year with TJ. Let’s get him back on a mound first.

Jeff: Do you think a Jay Bruce for Zack Wheeler trade is equitable? I know it was discussed at the deadline and ended up not happening. But it could realistically come up again, once Cespedes leaves.
Klaw: If Wheeler is presumed healthy, that’s an inferior deal for the Mets’ side.

Fred: I know he gets a lot of hate for his defense, but what have you thought of Wilmer’s hitting so far in his MLB career? 20 HR 100 RBI guy?
Klaw: I think he’s going to hit – his OBPs are terrible to date, but he’s young, makes contact, has a good swing, and should eventually hit for enough average that his OBPs will end up respectable if never actually good. Not a shortstop, of course.

Tim: Atlanta still have Kevin Maitan lined up?
Klaw: I have answered this many times already. They have an agreement with him, but as it’s totally prohibited by MLB, if either side chooses to break it there’s no recourse. A player who signed a seven-figure deal this past July 2nd reneged on an agreement the day before and signed with another team that offered more money; there’s nothing the original team could do because their deal with the player wasn’t legal to begin with!

JD: Joe Musgrove seemed to move up some prospect rankings this year. I saw him last year in the NYP and he didn’t stand out. Has something changed? Did you see him last season?
Klaw: I think he moved up for people looking at the stat line. Control guy who got healthy but doesn’t have premium stuff.

Adam: You mentioned earlier that the Nats signing Heyward and moving Harper to CF makes them much better…….wouldnt Heyward be the better CF of the two?
Klaw: I think Harper would be, actually. Better runner. Both have great instincts.

Fred: I read such mixed scouting reports on Amed Rosario’s power potential. Some say its gap power, some say its HR power. What have you seen?
Klaw: HR power. He’s still just a baby. Lot of people will tell you Dom Smith doesn’t have HR power either. They are mistaken.

JWP: Would Dylan Bundy even make your top 100 now?
Klaw: Probably not, which is a damn shame. I said yesterday on the periscope that I wonder if he was just overworked so much in HS that he was going to break down no matter what.

Bob Pollard: What do you make of Jon Gray at this point? Can he succced in Colorado?
Klaw: I don’t like his stuff and lack of deception in that environment.

Max Footroom: How did everyone miss so big on Jesus Montero’s bat? It was supposed to be MLB ready years ago. I remember the hype when he was traded to Seattle and people were saying he was the perfect DH who will hit MLB pitching immediate and have 30+HR power. How did the evaluators en mass miss this one?
Klaw: Good question. I don’t see a single smoking gun here: He didn’t work hard at all, he didn’t stay in shape, he did eventually get nailed for PED usage. I got destroyed by Yankee fans one year for ranking him too low, then conceded that I was likely wrong and ended up ranking him too high the next year. BTW, he’s still just 26 this year and I think he carves out a career for himself.

Ray: Is Margot more of a gap power hitter than a HR hitter. How will his power play in SD?
Klaw: Yes, and I don’t think he gets to 15 HR a year as a Padre.

Adam: Wouldnt the Braves best bet be to unload Maybin now so you can play Bourn and Swish? Hope they have good first halves so you can unload them……even if you dont get anything back thats money off the payroll?
Klaw: I think the ship has sailed on both of those guys, unfortunately. They’re probably just dead money, especially Brohio there.

Jeremy: Would head coaching experience at the college level (at one of the major conference schools) be enough for you to hire someone as a major league manager, or is the job too different? Why don’t we see more college coaches making that kind of jump?
Klaw: The job is extremely different but I’d still count it as something. The games themselves are quite different as you’re not managing every day, rosters are different, bats are different, and of course they’re not professionals. But it’s still fundamentally the same sport.

Kingpin: No question, just want to say thanks again for continuing the chats in this format and here’s hoping the best Thanksgiving for you & your loved ones.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and thank you for the kind wishes. A very safe and Happy Thanksgiving to all of you as well; please eat to excess and, if you drink to excess too, stay off the roads. I will resume the chats the week after the holiday and will continue to post here and on ESPN.com in the interim, with a 2016 rule 4 draft preview going up tomorrow.

Comments

  1. Keith,
    How do you rank the Red Sox system after the Kimbrel overpay? Do they still have enough pieces to take a run at Fernandez? Does Swihart, Devers, JBJ,and Owens get him?

  2. Can Dilson Herrera be a better player than Daniel Murphy this year?

  3. Braves potentially shopping Freeman and Shelby Miller. The wheeling and dealing is maddening. Where are the bats? Maybe if we buy some of that new Braves stock Libety Media will add a FA?

  4. Who would you rather have long term? Gallo or Maraza?

  5. Just wanted to give my 2 cents on my favorite Ruhlman’s 20 recipe (I also bought the cookbook based on Keith’s recommendation). My favorite recipe from the book is really simple as well, try the sautéed scallops with asparagus puree. I’ve always loved scallops, but serving them with the asparagus puree really brings out additional flavors in both (and has gotten me to eat asparagus more often).

  6. With a beard like that, you can’t call him a baby anymore: http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=642708#/career/R/hitting/2015/ALL

  7. One more thanks for keeping the chats going, Keith. Good holiday to you and the rest of the readers!

  8. “because kids who play it will be fans of it”

    Lots of American kids play soccer…

    • I think that’s part of why pro soccer has risen in popularity. MLS just hit an all-time per-game attendance high in 2015.

    • I also think one reason soccer has risen in popularity is that it is a lot easier to watch the major European leagues. This is really something that has happened in the last 5-10 years. You can watch most big English Premier League games on a channel most people have in their cable package. With the other major leagues (German, Spanish, French, and Italian), you can watch them on a sports package. This wasn’t the case before, where either the games were on an obscure channel few had or it was a highlights package at an odd hour. Being able to watch every game with the best players brings in more fans. I see lots of people, particularly kids, in Messi or Ronaldo shirts, and not just on the youth soccer field.

    • Yeah, but AYSO has been around since the 1960s. I just think the correlation between youth participation and adult viewership is tenuous. It’s not like (American) football is the most popular youth sport, but it’s the most popular adult spectator sport.

      Really, I think the problem that was being raised is very, very difficult to solve–If it even can be solved. I mean, Mexico is never going to produce the world’s best Alpine skiers, India is never going to be a preeminent power in marathon running. Basketball and football are just so much better suited to the socioeconomic situation of African Americans, and have such a broader and warmer acceptance in those communities, that baseball has an uphill battle that it probably cannot win.

  9. How did Kevin Kiermaier get FOUR MVP votes? I can always understand the one random vote for someone you like by a writer, but FOUR?

Trackbacks

  1. […] at least that’s what the optimist would say. Another ESPNer, Keith Law, recently wrote that he had Mancini pegged as a AAAA player – good enough to do well at Triple-A but not good […]