Klawchat 4/7/16.

Klaw: Let a sucker slide once, then I break his neck. Klawchat.

Jack: I saw an article that you and some Phillies brass were at the Groome start. What is the general protocol for you interacting with team employees at games? I assume it varies based on how well you know each other, but is the range from “don’t even acknowledge it’s each other’s presence” to “it’s like running into old friends”?
Klaw: I know so many of these guys that it’s more like the latter. I look forward to games like that because I’ll see so many friends there.

James: How would you compare Groome to Allard and Aiken?
Klaw: Better than Allard – more physical, more present velocity, less effort. Aiken was more advanced, showing three (arguably four) pitches and better command, but bear in mind Tuesday was not a full effort outing.

John: Does Groome being a “hometown kid” have any effect on whether the phillies should select him or not? Would the added pressure have any effect on the decision?
Klaw: No. This is media bullshit we get almost every year. Teams are generally not that stupid. You take the best player, not the best player in your backyard.

Eric: Keith, have you ever seen a 95mph slider before? Thor looks even better than advertised in your opinion who is the first pitcher the Mets lock up long term or do you think they will wait until they’re all eligible for free agency
Klaw: No and I’m guessing that was a cutter (or a bad gun reading). Thor is the one guy of their aces I’d most want to lock up – I think he offers the best potential for durability. [Post-chat edit: sounds like pitch f/x had that velocity and Syndergaard called it a slider. I think it would be the hardest slider in MLB history.]

Drew: Brandon Finnegan looked good with his first start and I understand it was vs. the Phillies. What are your thoughts on a potential mid rotation starter ?
Klaw: I see no chance of that. Reliever all the way.

Lyle: So, Drew Jackson. Couple of things: 1) Understand that Mariners fans had so little in the minors to be even hopeful about that we want him to be someone who exceeds his projections, and 2) You’re the prospect guy so I’m sure that you’re much more likely to be right about his projection than you are to be wrong. Having said all that, what kind of performance would Jackson need to have in the Cal League (skipping the MWL) in order for you to bump him up a level or two (say, from org guy to AAAA guy to fringe regular)?
Klaw: Bakersfield is a good place to hit (as is the league in general) so I don’t pay much attention to college products’ stats there. In Jackson’s case, he really wasn’t much of a hitter in college, so making more contact and showing some plate discipline would be some progress, I suppose. But I’d say wait till AA.

David: I know previously you said the Phillies were not interested in a HS pitcher at #1, but with Groome’s ability and polish, and the relative disappointment of the college crop, is Groome now the odds on favorite at #1?
Klaw: No. There is no “odds on favorite” this year. There’s no Harper or Strasburg or even Cole. I do think Groome is the best prospect in the class now, having talked to a lot of folks about how Ray has looked this year, but that doesn’t make him the odds-on anything.

David: No question, just wanted to say you were great on TV and enjoyed hearing your insight during the broadcast.
Klaw: Thank you – it was fun to do it and the guys (Boog, Sut, Doug) all made it easy for me.

Bill: Do you have a suggested starting place for P.G. Wodehouse? He shows up on your top books list, but when I was looking for his books recently there seem to be a bunch, including random short story collections that have a bunch of overlap, and no clear place to start.
Klaw: I started with the collection Enter Jeeves, which was three books in one, two of short stories and one novel.

Dave: Do you have The Food Lab in your cookbook arsenal? I was a slow cooker carnitas guy also until I tried the crispy skin pork shoulder recipe, it’s a showstopper. Great book
Klaw: I do – yes, great book.

Droopydave: Are the the benefits of 19 and 20 year old’s playing in major colleges with diet and nutrition programs vs those eating fast food playing in lower levels of the minors valued by organizations? Or has this been corrected?
Klaw: You think teams don’t have diet and nutrition programs? Players are better off in pro ball, no matter what colleges try to tell you.

Justin: So my took my 17 month old to get his 2nd round of flu shot’s 2 months ago. The kid was literally never sick, he’d only been to the doctor only for his vaccines. Since then, we’ve been over a dozen times…reoccuring wheezing, cough, eczema, runny nose, the whole atroph march and it never ends . Of course its not the flu shot, right? Others have told me similar stories and my wife is becoming convinced. I stand firm but admit I’m starting to question it. Any suggested reading materials? Man, having kids sucks sometimes.
Klaw: It’s not the flu shot. But man does that sound like an allergic reaction to something (I am, of course, not a doctor). I hope your son feels better soon.

Frank: Can we expect this type of performance moving forward from Nicasio
Klaw: No. It’s one start – and he still hasn’t shown a third pitch.

Eric: I saw that the Blue Jays manager defended himself with “my wife, daughters, etc. didn’t have a problem with it”. Isn’t that the “I have a lot of African-American friends” defense?
Klaw: Yes, it is. Plenty of people, women and men, did have a problem with it. Regardless of his motivation, he was wrong to say it, and MLB should act on that.

Michael: Whenever a friend or family member uses the r word, I generally tell him/her that it’s inappropriate. On more than one occasion, they have responded that people like me are indirectly responsible for the rise of Trump and the anti-PC crowd. You commonly correct people on Twitter and in chats. Do you agree with this sentiment? Do you think it’s possible you’re actually accomplishing the opposite of what you’re intending, and creating something far worse?
Klaw: I believe sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Chris P: What is up with Mariners prospects…Alex Jackson going back to extended spring?!?!
Klaw: Yep. Not a great situation, but it’s not like he’s performed near expectations yet.

addoeh: What would your costume if you won John Oliver’s commoner in the premium seats at Yankee Stadium contest?
Klaw: Foppish dandy: http://www.theonion.com/article/foppish-dandy-disregards-local-constabulary-1115

Jeff: Klaw, how many teams and players have you totally changed your mind on since Opening Day based on their performance? Thanks!
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Michael: It seems like some people were surprised Alford will start in Dunedin. Do you think they should have challenged him at AA or better to take your time with a guy who hasn’t played much pro ball?
Klaw: I think he’ll get to AA soon enough, maybe once it warms up … but didn’t they do a bunch of strange things with assignments there? Why was Sean Reid-Foley demoted to low-A?

Dan: Hey Keith, nice seeing you during the game last night! What did you thank about Nola? The obvious caveat about a weak lineup applies, but he seemed to locate well and worked efficiently. He was obviously getting tired in his last inning when he fell behind 3-0 to the first two hitters but he came back to strike both of them out. As I Phillies fan, it was a fun game to watch (for the first eight innings).
Klaw: Looked great. Curveball is definitely better than it was a year ago. Still see a mid-rotation guy long-term, league-average to above league-average, probably someone you hope is your third-best starter when you’re contending.

Dan: Anfrenee Grier was somewhat heralded in HS as talented but raw. He seems to have improved his draft stock, but still seems quite raw. Does he project as an everyday player given his developmental path to date? Much thanks.
Klaw: Projects as an above-average regular with unusual upside for a college guy between his tools and his youth (I think he’s 20.7 on draft day?).

“Lighten Up” Guy: You chat like a girl
Klaw: Thoughtfully?

Michael: Re your comments on Henry Ford, where would you draw the line with historical figures? Do T.S. Eliot, Robert E. Lee, Dr. Seuss, Woodrow Wilson, and Thomas Jefferson, for instance, always need a disclaimer, or can we celebrate them for what they were good at (literary, political, or military genius) and quietly leave the rest alone?
Klaw: Ford bought a newspaper just so he could spread his hate of Jews, reprinted the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, and accepted an award from the Nazi government. He was beyond the pale.

Joe: I know all teams want a piece of opening day, so the schedule makers can’t just stick with warm weather cities for the first two weeks. But shouldn’t all the games scheduled for cold weather cities at least be in-division games? That way, any weather problems don’t force an immediate doubleheader or losing a mutual off day later in the season. Seems like bad scheduling to have New York host Houston instead of Toronto, for example.
Klaw: Having two dome teams play each other was pretty stupid too.

Tom: Heaney just went on the DL with forearm tightness. A couple of years ago, Skaggs went on the DL with forearm tightness. This is an obvious place to jump to conclusions, right?
Klaw: There is no such thing as good forearm tightness, flexor strain, or biceps tendinitis.

BD: I’m not one for Spring Training and 1st week stats either, but when there is a dramatic physical change, I wonder. Does Wilson Ramos getting LASIK mean anything? He looks a lot better (so far)
Klaw: I believe physical changes like you describe have real, lasting effects that we should be aware of, but that we still need a few weeks of data at the absolute minimum before we can say “yep, he’s better.”

Tom: I’m sort of confused on the whole Joey Bats controversy. People were saying the Utley Rule or something was enforced, but has it ever been legal to slide into second and grab the defender’s leg as you go by?
Klaw: MLB seems to have said the Utley rule covered it, but I agree with you that at least one and probably two rules already on the books made that play illegal. Also, Bautista was out; why the hell should he be allowed to affect anything on the field at that point?

John: Genuinely interested, not trolling. Why was it okay for you to poke fun at Ron Paul’s/Bobby Valentine’s appearance, but I presume you would never do that with women?
Klaw: Clearly trolling, since I didn’t poke fun – I just pointed out a resemblance – and you’re basing this stupid question on a stupid presumption of what I would do in a hypothetical situation. Think critically for a second.

MJ: Cano is off to a great start, carrying over from his second half and big spring. Have you seen any kind of mechanical adjustment that has led to his hot play since last summer or is he just finally healthy?
Klaw: I think he’s finally healthy. Did he need a mechanical adjustment? I don’t know of anything from last year (which could be my own ignorance) that would point to that.

Vance: What’s your take on that good, uhm, parable in Colorado right now? Has that yarn spinner learned to hit? I know SSS, but it’s still interesting.
Klaw: I said on the BBTN podcast this morning that he is probably just an average regular, but he could easily be better than Reyes, who can’t play shortstop any more anyway, so if the hot start means Anecdote keeps the job all year, so much the better for the Rockies.

Finch: What would you need to see from Jurickson Profar to consider this season a success?
Klaw: Just health. I don’t doubt he’ll hit and, if the arm is indeed fully recovered, field well.

Wellington: Are there any HS guys from Northern California, other than Manning that could go within the first 2 days of the draft?
Klaw: He’s the only one on my list right now; among college guys, there’s Daulton Jeffries at Cal (missed last start with a calf injury) and Lucas Erceg at Menlo College, an NAIA school. Erceg “left” Cal in the fall – there are various rumors about why, none of which seems very favorable to the player – and is putting up Nintendo numbers at the smaller program.

Andrew: What would you do re Rusney Castillo if it were up to you? It seems to me like
Klaw: Sorry you got cut off, but I think they’re doing the right thing with him at the moment.

Jack: Which draft prospect’s stock has fallen/risen the most since the beginning of the season?
Klaw: Hard to slip more than Alec Hansen, who was a 1-1 candidate but has been bad and hurt. Rising could be Grier or possibly Joey Wentz, HS lefty near KC (same town as Pint but they don’t face each other), gone from just a good arm to clear first-rounder.

Vance: In the time since Trout was drafted have teams become better at scouting cold weather city players?
Klaw: That’s unfair to teams scouting that year – it was miserable in the northeast, tons of rain, so he didn’t play often and was just harder to see. He also was not an 80 runner in high school.

Tim: Have you ever thought about doing a later chat, maybe 8 or 9 PM EST? I can’t be the only one secretly doing this at work…
Klaw: If I’m home at that hour, I’m with my family, and if I’m not home, I’m probably at a game.

BD: Maryland starter Mike Sharwyn bumped from Friday to Sunday… why the regression this year, and can he fix it?
Klaw: Think he’s a reliever anyway. Might be better off in that role now.

Keith: Re: Thor and his slider – definitely had slider movement around 92-95. Still, I don’t remember seeing a starter like Noah pretty much ever – 100ish 4seam, mean 2seam/sinker at 95+, solid change, and good breaking stuff – sky the limit? The only guy who compares in recent memory is Strasburg, but Thor seems to have a better temperament and composure on the mound.
Klaw: Very different personalities, and Thor does it easier anyway. One of the best examples I can remember of a guy who was nearly all projection in high school and has hit just about every milestone or leaped every developmental hurdle you could think of. Every year, something has gotten better. I also wonder if that gradual improvement is part of why he’s stayed healthy, as opposed to the Strasburg or Zumaya types who showed up after one offseason with 10 extra mph.

Matt: Scott Schebler a viable platoon OF long term? how would you rate the power/speed tools? 55 each potentially?
Klaw: Think he’s more of a 4A guy.

Michael: Rome’s rotation by May could be Soroka, Fried, Allard, Touki, and Sanchez……..any chance you’ll be catching some games down here potentially?? Also got Riley, Acuna and Herbert among the position players
Klaw: Great team but not likely I’ll come there – they’ll come up north to Delmarva or Lakewood.

Andrew: Just to finish my Castillo thought – is he a 4th/5th OF now? Did the Red Sox just whiff and spend $72 million on a bench player, or is there more there?
Klaw: There was always some fourth OF risk – great defender but it seemed like no one was sold on the bat, or the power, or both. And at his age, can you hope for more development if he goes to AAA?

Terrance: Hey Klaw, I know it’s not your fault but ESPN giving Greg Hardy that softball interview with Adam Schefter, and Schefter subsequently going around referring to Hardy as a “changed man” may be my last straw with the Worldwide Leader, as far as giving them my Insider money. I’ll still follow your personal website, of course.
Klaw: I personally do not believe men who beat women can change. And there’s some psychological research that says rapists can’t change. So I don’t know why we did that.

Carla: Did the BJ’s blow it by trading Thor?
Klaw: Nice pun. In hindsight, yes, I think so.

Brian: You said a few weeks ago that Austin Riley has slider bat speed. What does that mean for him going forward? Does it take away his chance of being an impact guy, or is it still doable with slider bat speed? Thanks.
Klaw: Slider bat speed means a guy who can’t catch up to average or better fastballs without cheating (starting his bat early). It’s not a good thing. I had heard that on Riley last year, and it’s what I saw in March. Let’s see how it plays out as he’s facing some better velocity in low-A this year.

Joe: When will you be updating the draft rankings? Thanks
Klaw: Next week. Eric and I have been working on them the last few days.

Bill: Aaron Sanchez looked awesome in his first start of the year. Got several whiffs (on some change-ups, too!). Have you had a chance to watch any of his start? No walks…reasons to be encouraged?
Klaw: Again, just one outing. Strikes are good, though.

Grant from Chicago: I noticed Cease, de la Cruz, Wilson and Hudson are still in XST. Thoughts on why they haven’t been assigned to South Bend?
Klaw: Why would they be? Cease isn’t even two years back from TJ and barely pitched last year. Hudson might stay in short-season all year. Wilson could too.

Mike: Last week you talked about how the college game can be very boring as the coaches micromanage. How does that affect how you scout the players? Is it difficult when players are constantly told to sac bunt or take pitches?
Klaw: Well it’s really hard to scout a hitter when the idiot coach bats him third and has him bunt in the first inning.

Jay: In the past you’ve talked about Dom Smith’s 70 throwing arm at 1B. Could you talk about the value of, say, an 80 arm at 1B versus a 50 arm there, over the course of a season? Never know how to weigh that. Thanks!
Klaw: It’s a small benefit but plays like the 3-6-3 or 3-6-1 double play become easier, or even the 3-5 play too. I’d say I never need my first baseman to have a plus arm, but it’s nice if he does.

Joe: If the Nats are thinking about Giolito as a second half asset would it make more sense to start him in AAA or does it not really matter?
Klaw: Don’t think it matters.

Drew: I know it’s early… but any insight on the Reds draft pick at #2 ? Do you see Corey Ray or Nick Senzel worthy of the pick.. maybe Rutherford ?
Klaw: Think those guys are all in their mix, plus Groome, Pint, maybe Delvin Perez. Puk is a wild card; if he misses any time (he came out on Sunday after 11 pitches due to back spasms) I have to think he slides.

Doug: Who are the top players for the 2017 draft?
Klaw: I don’t know much about the HS class but the college crop includes Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright at Vanderbilt and Alex Faedo at Florida.

Devon Rosene: Hi, Keith. I suffer from severe anxiety and depression and your candidness on the subject has been very inspiring. Thank you for having the courage to be generous with your personal history.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and I hope you find treatment options that help you.

Justin: You wrote that the 4 rookies on the Reds rotation have a ton of downside and I assume that’s because they are inexperienced. But do you see any top of the rotation guys in there for the future?
Klaw: That was for this year, and it was inexperience, reliever risk (Finnegan), command/control risk (Stephenson especially), etc. Stephenson has ace stuff, highest upside of these arms.

Michael: If you were in charge of the Jays, what kind of punishment would you give Gibbons? Assume you didn’t know this side of him or inherited him.
Klaw: I think it has to come from MLB and will. A large fine and a few days off would make it clear to other managers to watch their mouths. Then again, I thought Ausmus should have been sacked for making light of domestic abuse, and he’s still there.

Ty: After thinking Swanson would beat Albies to Atlanta I had a hard time thinking he’d be the SS of the future. Now, that Albies is ahead I think he will be the new SS. Disagree?
Klaw: Disagree. I think you’re reading too much into the assignments.

Mike: Do you plan on seeing Ian Anderson once the weather warms up in the Northeast?
Klaw: Yes, soon. He was snowed out yesterday though.

Jacob: Just an interested Jays fan. What did you think of Ricky Romero at the time he was drafted? Pretty sure you preferred Tulo, but did you still like Romero? How about David Purcey?
Klaw: Preferred Tulo. Thought Romero was lower-upside, mid-rotation maybe, with usual risk of any pitching prospect, while I thought Tulo was a star. I did not see Purcey pitch that spring (I saw the guys I just mentioned) but was concerned about his walk rates and that scouts were saying he was basically a two pitch guy.

Greg: Keith, there’s another baseball site that has Senzel as the #2 overall draft prospect. Are you anywhere near on board with that? It seems crazy for a guy with limited game power and defensive questions.
Klaw: That’s Baseball America. I don’t agree and we won’t have him near that high. I’m not saying they’re wrong or we’re right, but I share your concerns.

Keith: I’ve seen scouts rate Dom Smith’s arm as 50-55. I get that scouting is pretty subjective, but what is it that accounts for such large disparity between scouting opinions on something that should be pretty straightforward – arm strength, running, etc?
Klaw: You’ve seen scouts do that? Which scouts are sharing their reports with you?

wickethewok: Now that Gregory Polanco has signed an extension, whose contract is more valuable to the Pirates going forward between Polanco and Marte?
Klaw: I think Polanco’s going to end up the better player because I think he has a better approach at the plate and better overall feel for the game. As with everything else here, it’s just my opinion. If you want to argue Marte will be the more valuable player, I’ll listen.

Michael: Should the Yankees consider trading Gary Sanchez? With McCann under contract for a little while longer, it could become a misuse of resources, no?
Klaw: McCann has hit .232/.303/.421 as a Yankee. The misuse of resources might be playing him over Sanchez in 2017.

Ben: When scouting a pitcher, do you factor in at all how good they are themselves at the plate?
Klaw: Mostly no. But it’s one sign of athleticism, so that counts by proxy.

JR: In general, how many years does it take to evaluate how well a team did in any particular draft? 3? 5? More?
Klaw: I think five years is fair. Sometimes you know sooner that a draft was a disaster, because of injuries or releases, but think of how long it took for Devon Mesoraco to become any sort of prospect, let alone a big leaguer.

Nik: You’ve always been pretty down on Maikel Franco, but everyone is predicting a major breakout – are you getting on that train?
Klaw: That’s totally inaccurate – I have not “always been pretty down” on him; I rated him in the top 100 once, had him as a breakout prospect the year before, and still had him second or third in the system last year. I don’t think he has a very good approach at the plate, but as I tweeted last night, he’s crazy strong, and he can drive a lot of pitches most hitters can’t keep fair. I think he’ll be a good player, an above-average regular, but I am not predicting a major breakout.

Tom: You picked the Angels to finish 4th. Why the optimism?
Klaw: Average depth. Terrible top ten.

David: Do you think Manny Margot gets more than a cup of coffee with the Padres this year? What’s his upside?
Klaw: At this rate he’ll be their cleanup hitter by Tuesday.

Jacob: I remember a scout in Lansing saying he couldn’t believe Syndergaard signed for only $600k out of high school. Was he a guy who just wanted to sign or was he somewhat unheralded in high school?
Klaw: Totally unheralded. Only 4-5 teams were really on him, and only two were on him where the Jays took him. He was 88-92 to start his senior year and had no breaking ball. He also had some local attorneys rather than major agents as advisers, which may have hurt him in terms of getting the word out.

Andy: My issue with the Caucasians shirt is that I’ve seen some people say, “Well I’m not offended by that and I’m white, so clearly no one should be offended by the Wahoo image.” I almost wish it were more offensive.
Klaw: That’s because those people are stupid. The Caucasians shirt isn’t offensive; it’s jarring because we never see white people objectified like that. If you saw it, you reacted to it, because it’s so rare.

Adam: Do you think Mallex will be comparable or better than Inciarte?
Klaw: Better runner but much less juice.

Greg: Given that this draft is more depth than star power, does it make sense for teams up top to try cutting under slot deals with their first pick and load up on quantity, since there isn’t a ton of quality?
Klaw: The CBA all but mandates that unless you’re getting a Strasburg/Harper type. Everyone up top expects to sign their player for the slot figure of the subsequent pick, a difference that in the top few picks is near a million dollars of savings.

John: What position would you project Jeimer Candelario to play in the bigs if he were to be traded from the Cubs? How close would he be to the MLB if he wasn’t blocked by a star like Kris Bryant?
Klaw: Left field.

Mark: After a ho-hum first two years, Cavan Biggio looks to have turned the corner. Where does he go in the draft ?
Klaw: I think fourth-fifth rounds, maybe third because he’s famous, but he’s not actually having that great a year (in a bad conference) and he’s not very tooled up.

cj: Do you think the braves would take a chance on blake rutherford
Klaw: I expect him to be on their short list. He might be the best pure hit tool in the class.

JG: Is this Rickard kid for real?
Klaw: I don’t think he’s more than a fourth or fifth OF and didn’t think so when he was in Tampa’s system.

Eric: At what point in the draft do you believe it is no longer to early to select a pitcher that will, in all likelihood, end up as a reliever (even a high-caliber reliever)?
Klaw: Depends a little on the draft, but I would not do this in the first round.

Ryan: Can Albert Almora be the Cubs everyday CF next year or will he not hit enough?
Klaw: Leaning towards yes.

addoeh: If you had a chance to go back in time and watch one former prospect in action, who would it be?
Klaw: I’d want to go back to see some of the Negro League stars like Cool Papa Bell.

JR: I’m still in awe that you read 100+ books in 2015. I average approximately 36 books/year and have tried to bump that up this year. Despite my best efforts, I’m still only on pace for around 50 books. Be honest, did you use PEDs to help your reading performance in 2015 (and don’t claim any TUE bullshit)?
Klaw: Caffeine!

Mike: Do you think this is the year Dominic Smith shows his power potential and what do you think of Rosario staying in the Florida State League?
Klaw: I expect more power from Smith now that he’s in a neutral environment, and the Mets do too. I imagine Rosario moves north in a month or so. He shouldn’t spend long in St. Lucie as I don’t think that park does him any favors either.

Vance: Yes there was bad weather with Trout, but that happens many years, so how do teams compensate for that?
Klaw: That year was exceptionally bad. I’ve certainly never seen a prospect lose as many games to weather as he did.

Mike: Do you buy that age questions regarding HS players ie. Rutherford turning 19 before the Draft?
Klaw: I think it’s a variable to consider, but not a reason to ignore a prospect with ability, nor is exceptional youth a reason to elevate a player. Delvin Perez will be 17.5 on draft day, but I rate him very highly because he probably has the best overall tools package in the draft (along with questions about his maturity).

Greg: With Rutherford being 19, does that ever equate to a guy moving faster through the minor leagues?
Klaw: If you think Rutherford is as advanced as a 19-year-old HS hitter should be, someone who’d be ready to go out to the Midwest League next year at about 20 and who would finish 2018 in double-A (so three levels total across two full seasons), then he’ll be right on schedule and you should just take him.

Jim: Keith, In New York we are going to a $15 minimum wage. can you help me understand how this is a good thing and not something that will hurt small businesses and change the service industry?
Klaw: “In recent years there have been important developments in the academic literature on the effect of increases in the minimum wage on employment, with the weight of evidence now showing that increases in the minimum wage have had little or no negative effect on the employment of minimum-wage workers, even during times of weakness in the labor market. Research suggests that a minimum-wage increase could have a small stimulative effect on the economy as low-wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front.” http://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/

Threat Level Midnight: With my amateur scouting eye and 4 innings of watching him pitch, I feel like Stephenson lacks a putaway pitch. Was this a comment about him as a prospect?
Klaw: He’s not locating well today. The CB and change have both flashed plus in the minors, so I think the putaway pitch would be there if he had any command today. Of course this game just turned into a dumpster fire so who knows what happens next.

Michael Scarn: With a year of retrospect, what do you think the Athletics were thinking with the Butler contract?
Klaw: Didn’t get it then, don’t get it now.

Christian: Do you think teams should start to open facilities in Europe the same way they do in the DR and South America to both grow the game and get a chance at untapped talent that isn’t as scouted as often? Thank you again.
Klaw: MLB has facilities they run there, and I don’t think teams would try to compete on a macro level with MLB. The facilities are necessary in the DR because they house players who might be so poor that they don’t have enough to eat or a proper bed in which to sleep. That’s not necessary in most of Europe, although it could become appealing to do that in a place like Uganda, where baseball has started to catch on and we might start to see players sign pro contracts soon.

James: Do you think the Brewers would go arm or bat at #5? Thanks!
Klaw: Best player available.

Jon: What’s a good book to give to a 12 year old. Any literature that is accessible for that age?
Klaw: Depends on what kind of reader s/he is but the Harry Potter books would certainly work, as would Jasper Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer series and Diana Wynne Jones’ Howl’s Moving Castle series – all stuff I’ve read with my daughter.

Jay: Is there anyone in the Giants system that you would project as a #1/#2 type starter?
Klaw: No, but you could make an argument for Bickford, who will show that kind of fastball/slider. I don’t love the arm action and I know there were questions about his back and shoulder prior to the draft.

Adam: Best Slider? Harvey, Thor, Fernandez or Archer? I think thats the best 4 anyway
Klaw: Sale and Kershaw are standing on your porch right now and would like a word.

PhillyJake: Do you know of a team not drafting the best player available?
Klaw: Teams do it sometimes, but it’s less and less common because it never works out and often gets you fired.

Ridley Kemp: Who do you think has a chance to be MLB’s “Leicester City,” a totally out of the blue worst to first story? P.S. Yes, I am only asking this question to mention my beloved Foxes, why do you ask?
Klaw: Of the six last-place teams from last year, the only ones I could see reaching the playoffs would be the Tigers and Red Sox, and in Boston’s case, it wouldn’t be totally out of the blue at all.

Steve: If Seth Beer had stayed in HS, would he have gone 1.1 ?
Klaw: I don’t think so. He will be 19.75 on draft day this year and scouts didn’t see his hit tool the way they see Rutherford’s. But it turns out he’s pretty good at the whole hitting thing.

Will: Have you read Sam Hinkle’s 13 page resignation letter?
Klaw: Don’t know who that is. Sounds like you made the name up.

Christian: If you had to project, do you think expansion happens within the next ten years? I know their are a few markets that could support a team and baseball is always looking to make more money. Thank you again.
Klaw: Yes, for the reasons you outlined. But I don’t think MLB has any real desire or incentive to expand outside the US right now.

Marshall: The only reason I can see a team not drafting “BPA” is if they are targeting a player that is going to fall because of contract demands and want to use some of their salary allocation on him. But that scenario hasn’t seemed to happen in real world very frequently.
Klaw: That’s a good point that I really should have mentioned. Sometimes you will pass on BPA because he wants more than slot, and you can do better by taking the second (or maybe third) guy on your board and then getting an overslot guy later. I apologize for not putting that into my earlier answer because it has happened a couple of times.

Andy: Re: Relievers in the 1st round, you and I were more valuable major league players than Matt Anderson.
Klaw: I truly cannot see that ever happening again.

Tommy Moore: What are your thoughts on how showcases have become the main way for kids to be seen by colleges and scouts? Does the air it out for 2 innings mentality leaD to pitcher injuries, as some have speculated? Do pitchers not learn to handle adversity when no scores are kept and innings are usually rolled after 6 batters?
Klaw: There are benefits – much better competition is the main one – but yeah, air it out for an inning or two because you see 50 guns there certainly isn’t helping anyone’s health.

Goldenface: You said in your team projected standings article that the Angels have “one of the 10 best starters in the league”. Was this a misprint, or do you believe that Garrett Richards is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball?
Klaw: In the league. Not in baseball. There are two leagues. Have been for a while now.

Scott: Do you think the US as a whole has gotten to the point where the majority of citizens are socially progressive? As disheartening as these BS “Religious Freedom” bills are, the immediate backlash to it is encouraging, and stronger than it would have been even 10 years ago.
Klaw: I think there’s a large geographic divide, where 2/3 of the country is looking at the other 1/3 like they’re crazy. (I know there are dissenters to these bills in the south and supporters in the north and west too.) I do think the backlash and the economic cost of legislated bigotry are going to change some laws even if they don’t change hearts and minds. And if you’re with a company looking to relocate jobs from North Carolina or Mississippi or any other hate-states, Delaware has low taxes and equal protection for LGBT people!

Grant: You said that the Cubs aren’t extremely well built for October, but that they have the assets to add another SP for the playoffs. Is Arrieta-Lester-Lackey really not a good enough playoff 1-3?
Klaw: You think lackey is better than I do, i infer.

Andy: Does anyone know if the Astros had Correa as BPA or if he was actually #2 or 3 on the board? I mean that was seen as a non-BPA pick at the time.
Klaw: Nah, I had him slightly behind Buxton, and I think I said at the time it was a matter of opinion. I believe they had both guys in their mix till the last few minutes, but that said, I know they were on Correa for a while.

Rob: Isn’t drafting the best available player only relevant in the first half of the first round. Is there much difference between the 19th and 20th picks, so if one is a pitcher and one is a position player and a team needs to stock up on pitching, won’t they go for the pitcher?
Klaw: No, that’s a terrible strategy. If you think the pitcher is better, sure, take him, but if you think the hitter is better, don’t take the pitcher because you think you need pitching more. The biggest problem with doing that is that predicting what you’ll need 3-5 years down the road is really hard.

Ryan: I hated the Cubs trade for Matt Garza at the time, it was more about a GM trying not to get fired instead of improving the overall health of the system. In retrospect it looks terrible now, Archer is a bonafide ace and the Cubs ended up getting three releivers for him. Why do GMs make trades that even normal fans know will not work out?
Klaw: Imagine how much worse it would look if Hak-Ju Lee hadn’t blown out his ankle and had become at least some kind of big leaguer.

Joe: How much does the AJ Pollock injury hurt the Dbacks going forward this year? Its hard for me to believe that they have depth to make the postseason unless a bunch of unexpected players break out this season.
Klaw: I would guess it costs them three wins if not more in the standings. Brutal timing for a brutal loss.

Klaw: Anyway, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for reading, for your questions here, and for watching the game last night. I should be back Wednesday or Thursday next week to do this again. Look for me on ESPNU tonight around 7:15 pm ET talking draft stuff on College Baseball Live.

Comments

  1. I have seen similar comments on the minimum wage as what you posted, however, there is doubt this will stay true on such a significant change in the cost of labor, which is pretty much unprecedented. Additionally, it does not take into account, generally speaking, the cost/benefit of new technologies that are just now becoming a more dependable. The best example is self-scan at supermarkets, which have seen wider use as wages rise in certain locations.

    • Self-scan machines at supermarkets take longer to check out a customer and are fairly prone to getting groceries stolen. And there are cases like with Home Depot a few years ago where hackers tapped into self checkout machines to steal millions of credit cards worth of data.

  2. I don’t often see the point that if you increase the labor costs of McDonald’s and Walmart, they will pass on that increase as higher prices to their customers. Sure, the companies’ profits will take some kind of hit, but the cost of the pay increase will also be diffused among the relatively low-income people who comprise their clientele. (I think I saw this argument first from the economist Steven Landsburg.) Increasing the Earned Income Tax Credit a corresponding amount is superior IMO because the costs will fall more on the wealthy in a progressive tax system.

  3. Amit Sainani

    Regarding the Butler contract, I think they were looking for someone who could provide the same kind of offensive production as that of Cespedes. Cespedes OPS in 2013 was .736 and .767 at the time of getting traded in 2014. Butler is 6 months younger than Cespedes and had a career OPS of over .800 at the time of him signing with the A’s. Obviously his 2014 was terrible, but they probably looked at that being more of an outlier than a natural regression. Looks like they were wrong.

    • Possible. I can’t remember if I liked the deal or not – I don’t think I did, but I think it had more to do with Oakland’s situation than thinking Butler sucked.

  4. Matt, Elton,

    The evidence on the minimum wage shows exactly what you wanted to believe in the first place, so just pick what makes you feel good. The increase is mostly motivated by people who mistakenly believe it’s a good way to help the working poor (I agree with the goal but not the method) and high cost labor providers who don’t want to compete with cheaper competition (the early wage policies were adopted to prevent minorities from taking white jobs by offering to work for less).

    The Economic Policy Institute (that Keith cites) rarely finds that a position taken by Democratic politicians is bad economics, even when economists do. A rise in the minimum wage probably won’t matter much in NYC, but it will keep people from opening new business in the rest of the state where prices and wages are lower. No, you probably won’t shutter your fast food franchise or dollar store – it’s already built and functioning – but you probably won’t expand to a new location in Albany, either.

    • I’d love to see the evidence on point two, that minimum wage hikes will slow new job creation (or I guess new business creation). I was certainly on the side of “raising wages will reduce jobs” for a long time, having some traditional economics education, but it seems like we now have decades of minimum wage hikes without any evidence they’ve hurt job growth. Perhaps labor is such a small component of the costs of these businesses that even a 33% increase isn’t enough to deter expansion?

  5. Adam gregory

    The problem with traditional economics educations is that rarely do students get far enough in the science to understand how simple models do and don’t apply to real life. In the case of minimum wage hikes, it is true, holding all else constant, there would be fewer labor hours demanded… But all else isn’t held constant, demand also changes. Furthermore the true functions for the supply and demand for labor are not neat 45 degree straight lines, they are convexed and/or concaved (depending on your viewpoint) thus not only is the change important to estimate but also the slopes at each relative point. I’d argue even the progressive studies that have been done drastically underestimate the change in demand. when a substantial raise is given to the portion of society with the highest velocity of money (often greater than 1), mathematically one could easily show the possibility for an exponentially positive effect on local economies.

  6. Klaw: Caffeine!

    I need to stop bringing THC to the caffeine fight, as THC wins. Every. Time.