Arizona has a bunch of high-upside, athletic outfielders and lots of pitching depth, enough to make up for the relative lack of guys in the middle infield (other than Geraldo Perdomo) or behind the plate. They seem to have found something in their process for drafting college pitchers as well, with a couple of guys getting better shortly after entering the Diamondbacks’ system.
Advertisement
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Corbin Carroll, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 23)
From the Top 100: The Diamondbacks were ecstatic to get Carroll, the No. 4 prospect on my draft board in 2019, with the 16th overall pick, and he has impressed across the board since signing, even showing more power than anticipated once he got into pro ball. Corbin can flash all five tools, as he’s already a 70 runner, projects to stay in center with above-average defense, and has shown a real feel to hit, with an advanced idea of the strike zone already despite playing amateur baseball at a private high school in Seattle. He’s just 5-foot-10, which hurt his draft stock but hasn’t kept him from making hard, loud contact. He may not have the most pure upside in the Diamondbacks’ system, but he has the best combination of ceiling and probability, and may be advanced enough to move quickly to High A or Double A this year.
2. Kristian Robinson, OF (Top 100 rank: No.37)
From the Top 100: Robinson is a swing-for-the-fences prospect in both literal and figurative terms: He has otherworldly power, but his approach is still crude and he may have trouble with contact when he can return to Low A at some point this year. Robinson is a big, athletic kid, with plus raw power and plus speed, quick enough to play center but with the arm to handle right if he outgrows the middle of the diamond. He’s shown some patience in short-season ball but has struggled with off-speed stuff, in part due to low recognition and in part because he overstrides at the plate and ends up out in front. In instructs this past fall, he showed enormous power to the opposite field, but also showed he still has a ways to go picking up anything other than fastballs. He just turned 20 in December, and between the lost pandemic year and his relative inexperience growing up in the Bahamas, he’s probably more like 18 in baseball years, but the upside here is undeniable even if it’s far away.
3. Alek Thomas, OF (Top 100 rank: No.61)
From the Top 100: Thomas, the team’s second-round pick in 2018, started to show more power in 2019 in full-season A ball without a big jump in his strikeouts, giving more reason to think he’ll end up showing all five tools when he gets to his prime. Thomas has a lot going on in his swing, but he’s shown very good feel to hit and strong pitch recognition, striking out less than you’d think from his swing mechanics while getting good lift to drive the ball. He’s a plus runner with the potential to stay in center and be above average there, although the Diamondbacks have other outfielders who may push him to a corner. He may strike out more as he moves up the ladder — his contact rate dropped after a promotion to High A late in 2019, albeit in a small sample — but it looks like he’ll have the OBP and slugging to profile as a regular in a corner or an above-average regular in center, if not even more.
Advertisement
4. Geraldo Perdomo, SS (Top 100 rank: No.91)
From the Top 100: Perdomo is a no-doubt shortstop with outstanding instincts for his age, showing it on both sides of the ball with great strike zone knowledge and excellent reads and actions on defense. He’s a very disciplined hitter who has gotten a little bit stronger but needs to keep adding muscle so he can convert all that contact into more impact; he’s starting to drive the ball now but can turn that into more extra-base hits and some home runs when he fills out his 6-2 frame. He’s an average runner with a plus arm and those aforementioned instincts, so he projects as a plus defender at short. The Diamondbacks rave about his makeup and feel for the game, giving more reason to think he’ll get the most of his tools; we’re just waiting on that physical projection to come through to see if he’ll be a regular or make enough hard contact to become a star.
5. Corbin Martin, RHP (Just Missed)
From the Just Missed: Martin might have made the top 100 had he finished 2020 healthy, but an oblique strain ended his season a little early and cost him some innings that might have helped him handle more work in 2021. He was still working his way back from mid-2019 Tommy John surgery that came after he made five starts for the Astros, but before the surgery was sitting 95 with a plus slider and at least average curveball. He has to work more on developing his change-up and on fastball command, and I’d like to see where his stuff sits post-surgery when he’s working 5-6 innings at a clip.
6. Blake Walston, LHP
Walston pitched a little at the Snakes’ alternate site last year but was slowed by a minor ankle injury and didn’t get as many innings as Arizona might have otherwise planned for him. He’s been 92-95 in shorter outings and shows a plus curveball and an average change-up, turning that last pitch over well, with very good deception because everything comes from roughly the same slot. He’s very athletic, starting for three years as his high school’s quarterback, and remains very projectable, with room to add at least 20 more pounds to his 6-5 frame. He has a wide range of potential outcomes but I can absolutely see a No. 2 starter here.
7. Slade Cecconi, RHP
Cecconi was the 33rd overall pick in 2020 on the basis of a solid pitcher’s body and two plus pitches in his mid-90s fastball and slider. By instructs, he was hitting 98-99 and looked like someone who should have gone twenty picks higher. The timing isn’t consistent in his delivery, so his arm is often late, pronating after his front foot lands, and he will have to improve his changeup to be able to get lefties out, but he has the build and the two pitches to be a mid-rotation starter.
8. Connor Grammes, RHP
Grammes was intolerably wild at Xavier, but something seemed to click for him in 2020, as he was around the plate enough for his huge stuff to start to play. He’s been up to 100 mph, with heavy life, and has two plus breaking balls in a hammer curveball with depth and shape to it and a slider with tilt that’s a swing-and-miss pitch. He has a change-up but no real reason to develop it yet, as it would be doing minor-league hitters a favor. The former infielder spent more time as a position player than a pitcher for the Musketeers and maybe giving up the former has made him much better at the latter. He could be a high-end starter or elite closer as long as he keeps his control to at least a 45.
Advertisement
9. Bryce Jarvis, RHP
Jarvis, the son of journeyman big-league starter Kevin Jarvis, was the D-backs’ first-round pick in 2020 and the first college senior off the board. He gained about 8 mph on his fastball from 2019 to 2020, touching 96-97, but in pro ball he had to work more on using his whole arsenal as he couldn’t just blow guys away with velocity. He has a four-pitch mix and saw his slider improve in pro ball to show plus — probably his best pitch — while his change-up may have backed up a little. He has mid-rotation upside as he continues to learn to pitch with this new level of stuff.
10. Pavin Smith, 1B
Smith has been a huge disappointment since the D-backs took him seventh overall in 2017, but the team worked with him to revamp his swing last year, improving his launch angle for power while also helping him get more leverage for harder contact. He posted frequent 100 mph-plus exit velocities at their alternate site and 9 of his 31 balls in play in the majors were hit at 95 mph or harder. He’s also improved at first base enough that he might be a 55 or better defender there. It’s a lot of ifs and maybes, but there’s also real reason for optimism that Smith might be a solid-average regular or better.
11. Levi Kelly, RHP
Kelly has a wipeout slider that could miss right-handed hitters’ bats in the majors right now, but he overuses the pitch when he should pitch more off his 93-94 fastball that can touch 96. He looks every bit like a starter but pitches more like a reliever, with 40 to 45 command, and has to figure out what he wants to be on the mound. He could be a league-average starter with that swing-and-miss slider.
12. Tommy Henry, LHP
Arizona took Henry out of the University of Michigan with an extra pick after the second round in 2019, coming off a spring in which he flew out of the gate but tapered off in velocity and results as the season progressed. He’s showing more consistent stuff now, sitting 91-93 and touching 95 with plus control, with two solid-average secondary pitches in the slider and changeup. Arizona people say he’s one of the best athletes in the system — a scratch golfer who can kick field goals from 50 yards — and think there’s still more development to come, but he’s improved already to the point where he looks like a solid league-average starter.
13. AJ Vukovich, 3B
Vukovich was their fourth-rounder in 2020 out of a Wisconsin high school, signing for an over-slot $1.25 million bonus, on the promise of his power potential, which was already very evident in instructs in the fall. Vukovich’s best position is “hitter,” as he has great bat speed and at least 60 raw power already, the type of prospect scouts say just rolls out of bed and hits. He’s big and slow-footed, almost certainly not a third baseman, but has the arm for right field and if he hits like he showed he could in instructs it really won’t matter where he plays.
14. Wilderd Patiño, OF
Patiño is built like a safety and has five-tool potential — a plus runner with power and a Howitzer for an arm, great range in center and bat speed. His instincts lag well behind his tools though, both in terms of his reads in center field and his plate discipline, even just ball/strike recognition. You can dream on him because of the body and athleticism, but he also seems like the type of prospect who often underachieves relative to expectations.
15. Luis Frias, RHP
Frias can run his fastball up to 97 with a plus curveball and enough feel for a changeup to develop him as a starter, but he’s behind most 23-year-olds (his seasonal age for 2021) in terms of command, feel to pitch, and ability to repeat his delivery, so he’s more likely to go to the bullpen.
Advertisement
16. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
Bukauskas can show three 55s or better but hasn’t held it deeper into games or stayed healthy for a full season, although much of the latter has been beyond his control (e.g., a back injury from a car accident). His delivery isn’t conducive to starting and his height (6-0) works against him getting downhill plane on his stuff, but in one- or two-inning bursts he might be dominant, potentially sitting 96-98 with a 60 or 65 slider.
17. Drey Jameson, RHP
Jameson has a very fast arm, chucking it at 96-98 with a 55 slider that has power and tilt to it, but he really lacks deception in his delivery and batters hit his fastball in the zone in instructs. He also doesn’t have the command to start, as he’s wild in and around the zone, possibly because he doesn’t repeat his delivery that well. Those pitches could be two 70s in relief, though.
18. Ryne Nelson, RHP
Nelson can show an upper-90s fastball and plus curveball in short bursts, and he’s emerged as one of the best control artists among the D-backs’ bucket of reliever prospects, giving him a strong chance to at least see the majors in a middle-to-late-game relief role.
19. Jeferson Espinal, OF
Signed in 2018 for $200,000, Espinal has emerged as the best signing from Arizona’s class that year. He’s an above-average defender in center who’s only a 55 runner out of the box but much faster underway, while at the plate he shows an idea of the strike zone that will buy him some time as he gets stronger.
20. Justin Martinez, RHP
Martinez has a huge arm, up to 97 already, despite being new to pitching as a converted outfielder who went to the mound in 2017 as a 16-year-old. He’s very athletic but right now is a thrower with reliever risk for all the typical reasons, not least is his grade 35 control.
Others of note
Outfielder Jake McCarthy was a favorite of mine when he was coming out of the University of Virginia but has had trouble staying healthy in pro ball. He changed his whole swing last year and got substantially stronger, showing 60 or better power, and is still playing some center field, although he probably ends up in a corner. He’s got to prove it in games, of course, but he’ll play at 23 this year and has time to re-establish himself as a prospect with everyday upside in right field. … The Diamondbacks acquired right-hander Humberto Mejia in August as part of the trade that sent Starling Marte to Miami; he made three big-league starts last year despite zero innings above High A before 2020. He’s got a plus change-up with serious bottom to it and a solid-average curveball with 12-to-6 break, but his fastball is 90-95 and fairly straight. He might have fifth starter potential. … Shortstop Blaze Alexander can play short and he can really throw, but there’s no impact with the bat here. … Right-hander Matt Tabor has seen his stuff back up and his delivery changes every year, although with his control he might somehow eke out a fifth starter existence. … Outfielder Stuart Fairchild, acquired from Cincinnati via trade, could be a fourth outfielder, but he just hasn’t hit as expected and doesn’t do enough of any one thing (notably, hit or field) to be more … Lefty Liam Norris, their third-round pick last year, is fascinating; with his over-the-top delivery, he has some deception and arm strength, but cannot throw strikes, walking 6.8 men per 9 innings last spring. In high school. Against teenagers, a category not exactly known for, say, patience. Or impulse control. Or sound judgment.
2021 impact
If healthy, Martin is one of the five best starter options in the system right now. Smith is the best option at first base now that Christian Walker has regressed to his pre-2019 form.
Advertisement
Sleeper
Patiño was the sleeper last year; he still has that upside but I was way too optimistic on his overall skill level. Vukovich will never impress you with the glove, but it sure looks like he can hit, so he’s the pick for 2021.
(File photo of Corbin Carroll from 2019: Zachary Lucy / Four Seam Images via AP)
