Meghan Montemurro and I wrote at length about how the Phillies ended up where they are now, including a much-depleted farm system that has been hurt more than anything by unproductive drafts, with what look like misses in the first round in 2015, 2016 and 2017 and generally poor results overall from 2016 (despite picking first overall), 2019 and perhaps the rest of 2018 after Alec Bohm. Some aggressive promotions of teenaged position-player prospects haven’t helped, although it seems like they’re changing that process as well.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Spencer Howard, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 62)
From the Top 100: Howard’s debut in 2020 was disappointing on a few levels, as he didn’t miss as many bats as he should have with his stuff and saw his season end in mid-September after another bout of shoulder stiffness. Howard’s biggest problem was location; he left a lot of pitches right over the heart of the strike zone or middle-up and paid for it, allowing four homers in just his first two starts and giving up way more hard contact than you’d expect, mostly on four-seamers and changeups middle-middle or middle-up. There are glimmers of good news here: Hitters whiffed on nearly a quarter of the sliders he threw, a rate that held up even on sliders in the zone, and he landed his breaking stuff for strikes. He’s going to have to locate his four-seamer better and get the changeup — his weakest off-speed pitch — down in the zone more, but I still see a mid-rotation starter here if he can get past this on-and-off shoulder issue.
2. Mick Abel, RHP (Just Missed)
From the Just Missed: The best high school pitcher in the 2020 draft class, Abel never got on a mound last spring before the pandemic arrived, but he did throw extremely well in fall instructs for the Phillies, including a well-attended matchup against the first high school pitcher taken in the 2019 draft, Quinn Priester. Abel has been up to 98 mph with a plus slider with good tilt and is working on developing his curve and changeup. He also has a good pitcher’s build at 6-foot-5, 190 pounds. We’ll see how he looks after some time in pro ball, facing real hitters, since the history of high school pitchers taken high in the draft — even ones who look as good as Abel — is not very promising.
3. Bryson Stott, SS
If you wanted to say that Stott just missed the Just Missed list, I wouldn’t argue. He’s a 55 to 60 defender at short with good range both ways and a strong arm, and at the plate he has power but also length to the swing that might lead to a lower contact rate as he moves up the ladder. The Phillies have worked with him on pitch recognition.
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4. Luis Garcia, SS
Garcia was a top-100 prospect before 2019, but the Phillies pushed him too aggressively from the Gulf Coast League to Low A at age 18 and he flopped; by July he looked deflated, and I didn’t blame him as he wasn’t physically ready for that level. He got a lot stronger during the shutdown, showing more bat speed and impact in instructs in the fall while also refining some of his actions at shortstop. He does have star-level ability as a potential high-average hitter with on-base skills and plus defense at shortstop, and his response to the miserable 2019 experience is also a very good indicator of his makeup.
5. Simon Muzziotti, OF
Muzziotti was originally signed by the Red Sox but was declared a free agent, as Boston had violated MLB rules against “bundling” bonuses for players, and the Phillies are the clear beneficiaries, as he’s at worst an extra outfielder who could turn into a spark plug at the top of a lineup. He projects to 70 defense in center with 60 run times, and his bat-to-ball skills are exceptional. He has started to get stronger, although more strength will probably mean more doubles and triples rather than homers, and the Phillies are working with him on improving his approach, as he has been a low-walk, low-strikeout guy so far in pro ball. He plays like his hair is on fire, and I’m here for it.
6. Francisco Morales, RHP
Morales has the best slider in the system, a wipeout pitch that would probably let him work in a big-league bullpen right now. He has been up to 99 mph with his fastball and has a changeup that might be good enough once through an order. He has just never thrown enough strikes to project comfortably as a starter, even if you want to dream on the third pitch, but the Phillies should keep developing him that way.
7. Adonis Medina, RHP
Medina has been on Phillies prospect lists for approximately a decade and debuted in the majors in 2020, showing good secondary stuff but an ordinary fastball that tapered off as the start progressed. He has three off-speed pitches that could be weapons for him, but his command is a full grade below his control, and he doesn’t have the wherewithal to attack hitters inside with the fastball. Maybe he’ll spend a third of the year in the rotation, a third of the year in the bullpen and a third of the year trying to figure out the meaning of this joke.
8. Rafael Marchan, C
Marchan is the best catch-and-throw guy in the organization and has superb bat-to-ball skills. He got a surprising cup of coffee in the majors in September despite never playing a game above High A before 2020, and coming into the year he had zero professional home runs … so of course he hit one in the majors. He really does need to get stronger for more impact at the plate, but if he doesn’t, he’s still going to be a great backup catcher for a long time.
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9. Casey Martin, SS
Martin was the Phillies’ second pick in 2020, a first-round talent who got off to a horrible start before the shutdown in March. He’s a 70 runner with quick hands and a plus arm and is oozing athleticism with quick-twitch actions and some wiry strength for pop. The challenge for the Phillies is his approach, as he’s dead pull, gets around the ball too often and has had trouble recognizing breaking stuff. He’s a great pick in the third round because even a small adjustment to his approach could make him a quality big leaguer or a prospect with quick trade value because of his position.
10. Nick Maton, IF
Maton is a high-probability big leaguer because he can play both middle-infield positions competently and has very good plate discipline with quick hands for contact, but he has well-below-average power. If he gets stronger and can get to 15ish homers a year, he might be someone’s everyday second baseman.
11. Johan Rojas, OF
Rojas signed for just $10,000 in the 2017-18 period, but he’s an outstanding athlete with great bat speed and very good bat-to-ball skills. He makes really hard contact, runs plus and looks like he’ll stay in center. He just needs to play and refine his approach a little bit. If he can, maybe we’ll see he’s a top-100 kind of prospect — he has the tools for it and some of the skills, too.
12. Erik Miller, LHP
Miller has good ride on a low- to mid-90s fastball and a plus slider, giving him a good floor as a lefty reliever, but his changeup lags behind even though there’s no reason in his delivery to say he couldn’t get to one. He comes from 3/4 and seems to get on top of the ball really well, so maybe a splitter would do the trick. If that third pitch shows up, he could definitely start.
13. Kendall Simmons
The Phillies’ sixth-round pick in 2018, Simmons is one of the Phillies’ top high-risk, high-reward prospects with one of the highest ceilings among their position players. He has some of the best exit velocity and bat speed in the system, with the ability to turn on good velocity and some untapped power. He’s a great athlete with lots of quick twitch in his actions and above-average speed. He’s playing shortstop now, although he’s more likely to end up at second or third. It’ll come down to approach; he has a lot of swing-and-miss, struggling in a brief trial in Australia this winter. If he hits, he could be a star, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t hit at all.
14. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
The Phillies outrighted De Los Santos off their 40-man roster in August after he came to the majors for a few days that month but never pitched. He has a big-league fastball, but neither his slider nor his changeup is average, with the latter being the better pitch, and he doesn’t repeat his arm swing enough for average command so he’s probably a middle reliever.
15. JoJo Romero, LHP
Romero might have found his niche in the bullpen, throwing hard and slamming Red Bull cans into his forearm, so even though he has the three pitches to start, this might be his ideal role. He sits in the mid-90s and his slider and changeup miss bats, especially the changeup, which was dominant in a small sample in 2020. He was unlucky by any measure on balls in play, and he should be much better with this stuff his second time around in 2021, with late-game, high-leverage upside as he gains trust.
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16. Damon Jones, LHP
Jones is a sinker/curveball guy with below-average command and a fringy changeup. He is more likely to end up in the bullpen but has the ability to miss bats with the breaking ball and get groundballs at a good rate with the fastball.
17. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF/1B
Ortiz has huge exit velocities and probably 70 power, if not 80, but his swing-and-miss was way up in 2019 and the Phillies have a lot of work to do to (re)build his approach. He’s a big guy but is a deceptively good athlete for his build, so he should be capable in left or right (he has a cannon) but isn’t there yet. He’s inexperienced and still raw in too many ways but has middle-of-the-lineup upside if the Phillies can get him back to where he was after 2017.
18. Yhoswar Garcia, OF
Garcia signed in March after an MLB suspension over a discrepancy in his age was resolved, but the Phillies held to their commitment to signing him and gave him $2.5 million. The Venezuelan center fielder is a plus runner who gets outstanding reads on the ball, earning comparison to a drone for how easily he goes to get it. At the plate, he has a simple approach that should lead to contact but perhaps not power.
19. Mickey Moniak, OF
Moniak reached the majors last year, but that was probably more a function of him being a former No. 1 overall pick than anything else. His swing doesn’t work to drive the ball, and he doesn’t pick up off-speed stuff well at all. He’s apparently a good worker, and he runs well and should be above average defensively in either corner. One scout mused to me that Moniak’s whole career might have been better if he’d been, say, the eighth overall pick in his draft rather than the first. We would certainly look at him differently if that had happened.
20. C.J. Chatham, SS
Acquired this winter from the Red Sox, Chatham is a very likely big leaguer but probably a utility guy, capable at shortstop with some contact skills but limited upside with the bat.
2021 impact
Howard’s in the rotation already, as he should be, and Romero’s in the bullpen, as he should be. Chatham could be their utility infielder.
Sleeper
Last year’s sleeper was Muzziotti and that still holds, but several other players could make a big jump once they get to play — Rojas, Miller and even Simmons — if they show what I think they could.
(Photo of Howard: Eric Hartline / USA Today)
