The Rockies have several upside plays in their system from the draft and international signings, and some potential mid-rotation to back-end starters, but the system isn’t very deep, as you can see by the relievers populating the back of the top 20, and the failure to get a single elite prospect for Nolan Arenado is even more glaring when you take a top-down look at the organization.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Zac Veen, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 43)
From the Top 100: The best all-around high school player available in the 2020 draft, Veen certainly looks the part of an elite position player prospect — tall, athletic, projectable, with plenty of tools. Veen has plus raw power now, with a pretty (if sometimes long) left-handed swing that should produce long drives with some swing and miss. He plays center now and I imagine he’ll stay there a few years, but he’s already 6-foot-4 and might end up 225-230 pounds even if he doesn’t get any taller, so right field seems far more likely. As with most high school hitters, it’s going to come down to how ready he is to face pro pitching, which we won’t see until we get minor-league games back this summer.
2. Ryan Rolison, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 82)
From the Top 100: Rolison is the Rockies’ top pitching prospect and also the closest to the majors of their potential starters, so there’s a good chance we’ll see him at Coors Field in 2021. Rolison pitches at 92-94 with a plus curveball that is an out pitch against left-handed batters and good enough to help get right-handers as well, and he’s refined his changeup since we last saw him in games. He also throws a slider that’s more of a fourth pitch but gives him a second option against lefties. The Rockies have done a great job cleaning up Rolison’s delivery, taking him from a cross-fire arm action when they drafted him to getting him on line to the plate so he can pitch to his glove side and improve his chances to stay healthy. He’s a solid fourth starter now but could be an above-average one if he develops that changeup to an above-average pitch.
3. Aaron Schunk, 3B
The Rockies’ second-round pick in 2019 was a third baseman and closer for Georgia, but Colorado took him as a position player, playing him at third and even some second during 2020. He plays hard with a lot of energy, showing huge raw power in BP but a more line drive-oriented approach in games that might lead to high doubles totals instead of 20-odd homers. He has a plus arm and can handle third, potentially a 55 defender there. His one weakness is a very aggressive approach at the plate that has led to low walk and strikeout totals, so his OBP might be below average even though he does everything else well.
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4. Michael Toglia, 1B
Toglia is an outstanding defensive first baseman and has the juice for 25-plus homers, but he’s a power-over-hit guy and probably won’t get on base often enough to be more than an average regular. Toglia is a switch-hitter, showing more power from the left side, but has a small hitch in his swing that makes him late to the zone more than you’d like to see, leading to high strikeout totals in college. He’ll play at 22 this year as he was a young junior.
5. Drew Romo, C
Romo was a surprise pick in the draft last year given his strong commitment to LSU, but the Rockies took him with the 35th overall pick and signed him for just over $2 million. Romo is an elite defensive catcher, at least a 60 in glove and arm, ready to go out to pro ball right now and catch good pitching. At the plate, however, there’s a lot of work to do. He doesn’t have great bat speed and has a bad leak in his left-handed swing, so he can sell out for power but otherwise doesn’t project to impact the ball from either side of the plate. There could be some swing adjustments here, but right now his ceiling is low because of his bat, even though his glove should carry him right up to the majors.
6. Brenton Doyle, OF
Doyle was the Rockies’ fourth-round pick in 2019 out of Division II Shepherd University in West Virginia, an exceptionally toolsy college player with 70 raw power and above-average speed but a question around his hit tool. Doyle is very athletic and has gone a long way just on that basis, driving some balls even with a somewhat unorthodox swing, although the Rockies have helped him by getting him more upright at the plate for better coverage. He’s in center for now and has a 65 arm, but he’s closer to a 50 defender than a 60. There are the ingredients here for a regular, even a very good one, with power, enough speed, hand strength and the arm, but playing three years at a small D-II school has left him a little behind at the plate.
7. Chris McMahon, RHP
McMahon was the Rockies’ third pick in 2020, a polished college right-hander with good command and feel but without a plus pitch. He’ll pitch at solid-average, touching 95, with an above-average changeup he didn’t use enough in college and a fringe-average curveball. He’s a strike-thrower who could end up with above-average command and plus control, but I’m not sure there’s a real out pitch here. He would be a potential league-average starter if he developed one — an improved changeup, a switch to a slider — but he doesn’t look like he’ll miss enough bats yet to be more than a back-end guy.
8. Helcris Olivarez, LHP
Olivarez is the first real high-ceiling pitching prospect the Rockies have had in their system in several years, probably since Riley Pint, their first-round pick in 2016, got the yips two seasons ago and fell off the map. The Dominican lefty has a really fast arm, with a huge stride toward the plate and some cross-fire action to his delivery. He works in the mid-90s now, touching 97, with a hard breaking ball that’s inconsistent but is plus when he lands it. He’s going to have a hard time pitching to his glove side unless he gets more online to the plate, but he seems athletic enough to make some adjustments with the Rockies’ help. You can dream a little here and see a No. 2 starter.
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9. Sam Weatherly, LHP
Weatherly has elite stuff with a history of control issues, walking 30 guys in 29 innings as a sophomore at Clemson, but at least was up to grade-45 control last spring before the shutdown, leading the Rockies to take him in the third round in 2020. He’s an incredible athlete who gets huge spin rates on his low-90s fastball and power slider with sharp downward tilt. He has a big head-snap at release, but his arm swing looks like it’s clean enough for him to repeat, so there’s some cause for optimism that his control could improve further if he could see the plate when he lets go of the ball. Weatherly is high-risk, but this is premium stuff, above-average starter or elite closer material, if he can throw more strikes — which he did do in instructs this past fall.
10. Elehuris Montero, 3B/1B
Montero was the best prospect coming to the Rockies in the Arenado trade, which may set expectations for him that he’ll never be able to meet, although he is a good prospect in his own right. He was a top-100 prospect going into 2019, but the Cardinals jumped him over High A — a rare player-development misstep for the club — and he broke a hamate bone that April, leading to a disastrous season between injuries and non-performance. He can hit, and has at least 55 power, with 37 doubles as a 19-year-old in Low A back in 2018, although he’s going to require work to be able to stay at third base — and that’s before we consider Aaron Schunk’s presence ahead of him. He could be a 40 doubles/20 homers guy at first, with a high average but just fringy OBP, if the loss of hand strength was the driving factor behind his bad 2019, but we won’t really know until he gets to play again.
11. Karl Kauffmann, RHP
Kauffmann has barely pitched since the Rockies took him in the Comp B round in 2019, as he went deep into June with the University of Michigan, then didn’t come to the alternate site in 2020 and was only briefly in instructs. Before that, he had plus sink on a fastball up to 95, an average slider and average changeup, along with average control despite some effort in the delivery. He could be a fourth starter once the Rockies build his innings back up.
12. Ezequiel Tovar, SS
Tovar has a high floor as a true shortstop with smooth actions and soft hands as well as a plus arm, but his ceiling is limited by his current swing and approach. Both of those are oriented toward bat control, making contact without impact, and the inside-out path to his swing means he’s not going to pull the ball for any sort of power. He’s an average runner who gets good jumps on the bases and helps his speed play up. At short, he has great actions and his hands work very well, making him likely to be the sort of shortstop who makes every routine play but perhaps few of the highlight ones. He’s a big leaguer, but maybe just a bench guy given his low walk rates and lack of any power.
13. Eddy Diaz, SS
Diaz is a slick-fielding shortstop with soft hands and good actions, but he doesn’t project to impact the ball at the plate yet. The Cuban infielder plays extremely hard, all the time, including swinging very hard yet rarely striking out — but hitting for no power, as he has yet to hit a homer in two years in the DSL and one in the short-season Pioneer League. He’s also a plus runner and has had success on the bases so far, although again, it’s all out all the time. He may be a better player just by slowing things down, but he also has to get stronger to turn all that contact into consistently high batting averages and at least the occasional dinger.
14. Ben Bowden, LHP
It seems like Bowden has been in this system for a decade, but I bet 2021 marks his major-league debut. He’s up to 96 with two average secondary pitches, including a changeup that helps him get right-handed batters out, so he could be a full-inning reliever.
15. Niko Decolati, OF
The Rockies’ sixth-round pick in 2018, Decolati spent all of his first full year in the minors in Low A, so he’s now 23 with no experience above that level, putting some time pressure on him to produce this year. He’s an aggressive hitter with 55 raw power but a long swing and a terrible history of putting the ball on the ground — 61.6 percent of his balls in play in 2019 were groundballs. He’s an above-average defender in right with a 50 arm, and has above-average speed with some base-stealing value. Between his awful walk rate (4 percent) and groundball tendency, though, he’s probably an up-and-down guy, with some traits that might make him a good candidate for a swing overhaul so he can put the ball in the air more.
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16. Tommy Doyle, RHP
Doyle is a classic sinker/slider guy, up to 95 with the former, without great spin rates on the latter but with deception on both pitches from his “spin axis,” the difference between the direction of spin and what the hitter perceives it will be.
17. Tony Locey, RHP
Locey is up to 97 from a high arm slot with a mid-80s slider that gets a lot of downward break because of his delivery, with a below-average changeup that probably pushes him to the bullpen.
18. Mateo Gil, SS
Gil came over with Montero and Locey in the Arenado trade. He’s a shortstop now but probably moves to second base, and he projects to 55 power as he fills out but has a long swing that will inhibit his ability to hit for average.
19. Ryan Vilade, 3B/OF
Vilade was bubbling under the top 100 for a while, but unfortunately, he’s lost a fair amount of bat speed, with multiple scouts reporting how awful he looked in instructs last year, and if he’s just a left fielder going forward, he has to turn that around to have a future. He has always earned raves for his makeup and general feel for the game, which you’d like to think would help him figure out whatever is ailing him.
20. Shelby Lackey, RHP
Lackey went to the University of the Pacific as a position player but moved to the mound once there and took to it enough that the Rockies drafted him in the 18th round. He works with average velocity but has tremendous life on the fastball and can flash an above-average slider. He’s probably a reliever but has more potential growth ahead of him than the typical 23-year-old since he has only been pitching regularly since 2016.
Others of note
1B Grant LaVigne had a huge debut in hitter-friendly Grand Junction, showing patience and power as an 18-year-old, but didn’t hit at all in Asheville — also hitter-friendly — the next year, and has looked more like an org player than a prospect when scouts could see him in the past year. He does have a patient approach, possibly too passive, and has at least solid-average raw power if he gets more aggressive and tries to ambush some balls. He’s limited to first base. … Outfielder Yonathan Daza can play center and is a 55 runner, but there’s no real impact with the bat and he hasn’t shown added value from base stealing either. … RHP Ryan Feltner sits 92-94 with a bucket of 45s and 50s and might have some potential as a fifth starter.
2021 impact
It’s strange to say for a team in this position, but the Rockies don’t have a lot of playing time available for prospects right now. Bowden should be in their bullpen for most of the year. Daza could be on their bench, as could Colton Welker, who was out of shape in instructs and doesn’t have a position. Rolison should debut at some point this season, perhaps more in the second half.
Sleeper
Doyle was the sleeper last year and he still has the same tools, just needing to prove it against better pitching. For a new name, Olivarez has a wide range of potential outcomes, but he’s the most exciting arm in the system.
(Photo of Zac Veen: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
