Klawchat 9/8/16.

You can pre-order my book, Smart Baseball, on amazon already. It’s due out April 27th.

Klaw: It’s enough to make you stop believing when the tears come fast and furious in Klawchat.

Owen: Lets say you’re scouting a high school kid who’s not even touching 90 yet. What things do you look for as indicators that he has the upside to grow into more velocity and just a better pitcher overall?
Klaw: Physical projection is the biggest thing, and it includes room for the player to fill out, adding upper and lower body strength, which tends to favor taller pitchers but shouldn’t exclude shorter ones entirely. I also prefer guys whose deliveries work reasonably well, as opposed to pitchers with deliveries that are “max” or high effort (where are you going to get more velocity from?) or that otherwise seem likely to impede command or health. One other thing I’ll note is that I am more open to HS arms throwing in the upper 80s today than I was ten years ago, because of what we have learned about velocity/effort and pitcher health.

Jonathan Orr: You’ve said you’re not high on Luke Weaver, what don’t you like?
Klaw: Undersized righty without plane or a decent breaking ball.

Sandy A.: Asking for a friend, what do the Mets have to lose by signing Tebow? I mean other than respect and time developing real prospects
Klaw: Yeah, that’s pretty much it. Oh, I guess also the distraction of having him around. And will the washed-up QB actually be that much of a draw for a minor league affiliate? He’s basically a sports Kardashian. He’s famous for being famous, not for being good at anything.

ssimo02: Would you care to expand on your distaste for xFIP? My understanding is that, like FIP, it looks at a pitcher’s walks and strikeouts, but unlike FIP, it replaces the pitcher’s HR rate with the league average HR rate, on the assumption that almost all pitchers regress to that mean over time. According to Fangraphs, xFIP has a very high correlation with future pitching performance. As a quick-and-dirty projection tool, what’s not to like?
Klaw: The assumption you cite is the problem.

Lars: Being reported that it’s “likely Walker will lengthen his stride” – this is something you’ve advocated for, right? Can you explain why he might have gone to a shorter stride and what a longer stride can help with?
Klaw: I assume this is Taijuan? Then yes. I oppose pitchers with short strides because they nearly all end up either getting hurt or losing something on their pitches, either velocity on their fastballs or quality of the breaking ball. Aaron Sanchez is the only real short-striding starter I see in the majors now. ASMI has some real research showing that short striders have these problems due to the higher release point and abrupt finish. Arizona shortened Tyler Skaggs’ stride and he lost about 3 mph and blew out. Walker lost his curveball and hasn’t ever really had command since he shortened his stride. The stride length is my one big concern on Alex Reyes, whose stuff is otherwise unbelievable.

Kim: What kind of numbers are available to teams that aren’t to the general public through BR/Fangraphs/PITCHf/x, etc.?
Klaw: A lot. MLB’s Statcast product is providing a torrent of data that we don’t get to see.

Hattie B: Thoughts on (Nashville) hot chicken?
Klaw: I’ve never had it. I don’t love very spicy food (and it loves me even less).

Jill: When are you going to let your daughter get Snapchat?
Klaw: Probably never.

Republican: Any reason why people shouldn’t consider voting for Gary Johnson? He seems to be the most sane.
Klaw: It would be nice if he knew what Aleppo was (or if the US media spent more time covering the human disaster of Syria). He’s also done his share of pandering to the anti-vax nut jobs, and his site refers to government efforts to fight climate change as “a political agenda,” a sort of backdoor form of denial (yeah, man is causing climate change, but the government shouldn’t do anything to stop it) that I can’t support.

John: Buxton has been on a tear since he was called up again. Is this just small sample size or did he alter his approach or mechanics?
Klaw: I know of no change in approach or mechanics, and it’s just seven games, but I’m happy to see it.

Brett: Why do you think the Twins didn’t call up ABW or Garver when they’re giving consistent ABs to Schafer and Centeno?
Klaw: Walker has 202 strikeouts this season. Those are good reasons.

Nelson: Do AFL performances have any bearing on your preseason top 100 rankings?
Klaw: Performances do not, but I will go scout players there and talk to other scouts who’ll cover the league, so how players look at that time will have a definite bearing.

Bruce: Maybe Im having some selction bias, but rookie hitters doing so much better than rookie pitchers this year. Even looking at the distibution in top prospect lists, are we in a down cycle for pitching prospects?
Klaw: I’ve mentioned this before but I think differences between the minor and major league baseballs are the root cause.

Tye: How historically impressive has Brian Dozier been since the AS break? It seems like you don’t even hear anything about him.
Klaw: Playing for a non-contender doesn’t help. I wrote in June that he should be in the All-Star Game over Nunez as the Twins’ rep and was told by a couple of Twins fans that this was dumb because Dozier was having a bad season.

Chris: Please rank in terms of ceiling: Gsellman, Montero, Lugo
Klaw: None of those guys are especially high ceiling but I think Gsellman is the most likely to be a quality major-league starter. Lugo’s great spin rates are fun to discuss but if he doesn’t miss bats or generate weaker contact, then I’m not sure this emphasis is properly placed.

Marshall: Klaw, how did the idea for a book come about, was it your idea, was it suggested to you by your agent or a publisher?
Klaw: It was my idea, but it was also your idea. I am asked at least once a week to recommend a book like the one I’m writing, and I didn’t have a book to recommend, so I decided to write it. I have had publishers approach me before, but when they had concrete ideas they were dumb ones – someone just wanted to put my name on a book and hope it would sell because I have an audience. I didn’t want to write a book I wouldn’t want to read.

Clay: Does Buxton have potential to be as good defensively in center as Kiermaier?
Klaw: That’s a very high bar but I think Buxton’s speed and arm could make him a top 3 CF in baseball.

Nick: Javy Baez is the best tagger I’ve ever seen, recording multiple outs with lightening quick tags it seems like nobody else has the ability to make. Is this something that scouts discuss and factor into their glove grading, or is it more of a cherry on top?
Klaw: Never heard anyone cite it for Baez or any other player, but it’s pretty clearly a way he delivers value and is also fucking awesome to watch.

Michael: Are minor league players exposed to scouting reports? I almost never see shifts or catchers moving in and out, for example. Is there ever a fear that a player will struggle to process all the new information available in the big leagues?
Klaw: Yes. The Astros shift at all levels of their minors, to pick one example.

Jon: Hey Keith it feels like every year there are players in the PCL and in particular Las Vegas that have huge statistical outputs (Nimmo this year) but we are always told to ignore these due to the ball park. Is it that teams are comfortable with their in house scouting that the numbers don’t matter or is Las Vegas the last place teams want their affiliate due to ballpark? If this truley is the worst spot to have your affiliate why not bump them down to AA and have another city with a proper stadium take over a AAA team? I’m sensing that this is all about money but I’d like to know your thoughts.
Klaw: Nobody wants their affiliate in Vegas or Albuquerque or Lancaster or High Desert (RIP) for that matter. But the problem with the AAA clubs is that there aren’t just cities sitting around with seven-figure populations and AAA-ready stadiums. At least with the Cal League teams that are folding, MILB had a handful of moderate-sized towns in NC (and I think in VA if they wanted to go that route) that could support A-ball clubs.

T: TINSTAAPP and all but is Dylan Cease a legit TOR prospect? His last 5 games for Eugene are crazy: 21 IP, 39 Ks, 7 hits, 1 ER
Klaw: Yes, that’s why he was on my top 100 in the winter. Just gotta stay healthy.

James: Any chance Tim Tebow goes from instructs to the Fall League this year? Can you imagine?
Klaw: The guy struggled to turn around 88 in his workout. I clocked three guys at 100 mph last AFL and there was at least one more. That’ll be fun.

James: Know anything about the rift between Mike Bell and DeJon Watson in AZ? I assume you would probably side with Watson? He was the only guy I was somewhat happy with when the Dbacks signed the front office trio..
Klaw: I don’t know anything about it, but “siding” with someone is a weird way to put it. But I’ll stick up for Mike Bell here – he’s a star and should be getting attention for VP-type roles or even GM openings in the near future.

Chris: Based on your strong scientific beliefs, why aren’t you vegan?
Klaw: One, because the science behind veganism as a more healthful diet is nowhere near what you imply it is. Two, because I like meat.

Mitchell: Thoughts on Michael Gettys? Big progress or no?
Klaw: No progress at all. Repeated low-A with still awful plate discipline, moved to a hitter’s park, continued awful plate discipline. Great athlete, big tools, but that swing and approach right now are not going to produce an average hit tool.

Harrisburg Hal: When he played the position, was Josh Bell and average outfielder?
Klaw: I thought he was at least an average LF, but they have some well above-average defensive OFs in Pittsburgh.

Jake: Do you always stay in hotels when you travel? Ever Airbnb or friends or anything else?
Klaw: Never, unless I’m visiting family.

Frank: I read a piece recently which said that Devon Travis was overlooked as a prospect, because he does many things well, but nothing spectacularly. The argument was that it takes several viewings to realize that he is really quite good, but a single viewing will not show his whole game. Does the logic of the argument make sense to you as a scout, and what could you do to mitigate that type of problem?
Klaw: I saw that piece; it grafted a narrative on to the story after the fact. No one is really just seeing a prospect once. I might see a player once myself, but then I talk to multiple scouts who’ve probably seen a player 3-6 games apiece, more if it’s an area guy seeing a top draft prospect.

Archie: Will a pitcher who spends the majority of his career with the Rockies ever put up the numbers necessary to get into the Hall of Fame, no matter how good he might be?
Klaw: Don’t think so. Hitters are having a hard time too because we (myself included, yes) find it hard to cope with their stats.

Chris: What did you think of De Leon’s debut?
Klaw: Looked good, glad to see him throw strikes, but that Padres’ lineup is pretty awful.

Some guy: I had a really good question but I forgot what it was. What’s the answer anyway?
Klaw: The answer is 42.

Avi: Pirates fan located in Israel! Huge fan of your work! Any possibility that Barrett Barnes is beginning to show the tools that made him a supplemental first? He’s been injured for large chunks of his career, but he really seems to be putting together in AA. Is this a product of him being a bit older for that level or is there some upside remaining?
Klaw: Fourth outfielder. Thought he was a bit of a reach as a supplemental first guy. Real problem now is he’s limited to LF and doesn’t have the power to profile there.

Drew: Assuming the worst about Strasburg, is it fair to pin this on Dusty?
Klaw: I’ve seen that going around today and I don’t understand why. What did Baker do wrong? What could he possibly have done better?

Roberto: True or false: Josh Bell puts up an .800+ OPS next season?
Klaw: I’ll go with True. I’m a believer.

Hugo Z: So are you going to watch this new show about the first female pitcher? The actress looks like she couldn’t throw her way out of a wet paper bag.
Klaw: I’m not, mostly because I find baseball in fiction is often excruciating to watch or read. I haven’t seen her try to throw, though.

Wade: haven’t seen anything on the meadow about seattle. ever been? any good food recs for a non-coffee drinker?
Klaw: Horrible to say but I haven’t been to the Pacific Northwest in 15 years. There’s just never a good reason to go for work and it’s a PITA to get there from here.

Tim: Get your hands on TV (The Book) yet? (mine just arrived). I’m not sure I agree with their #1. Thoughts?
Klaw: I have a copy on my shelf but haven’t cracked it yet.

Albert: Keith, I feel like Mike Trout has separated himself from the pack in the MVP race the last few weeks. Do you think he has any reasonable chance of winning it?
Klaw: I think he has zero chance because derp-playoffs-derp.

Gavin: My wife loves easier-to-learn boardgames like Machi Koro, Takenoko, and Mysterium. I just bought Camel Up (thanks for your review), but do you have any recommendations for easier-to-learn games that are still complex enough to be fun for people who like a little more strategy?
Klaw: Check out my rankings from last November, which also has a separate ranking of top games for two players. Splendor is definitely your speed. Dominion’s quick to learn with lots of complexity. Jaipur’s a great little two-player game that never really gets old for us. Agamemnon is a new title I played at GenCon that has that Jaipur feel – very simple rules, lots of thinking going on.

David: Keith, which(if any) of Oscar De La Cruz, Dylan Cease, Trevor Clifton, and Jeimer Candelario have a chance to make your top 100?
Klaw: Cease was on it last year. Can’t say about any of the others as I won’t even think about those rankings until December.

Pete: Do you start Wainwright or Martinez in the Wild Card game assuming both are available and Cards make it?
Klaw: I would start Martinez, but I would bet my house they’ll start Wainwright.

Mike: Did you say, recently, that you’ll have a top prospects for the 2017 draft coming soon ?
Klaw: I did, but our editors pushed it back a little. Chris Crawford took the lead on assembling the list (he saw team USA, area codes, and the PG All-American Classic) and I helped tweak it and gather more info.

David: Keith, Ryan Kellogg seems to check off a decent amount of boxes. Size, durability, control, seems hard to hit. But is his velo ever going to jump or is he an 87-88 type of guy with back end of the rotation being his absolute upside?
Klaw: Don’t think his velo will ever exceed that and I don’t project him as a starter.

Casey: Moncada’s platinum (?) sombrero, with 7 straight Ks over two games, is frightening. Do you think that calling him up so soon is likely to harm his development, or are these struggles and adjustments that he’d need to make sooner or later?
Klaw: Don’t think it’ll harm him – that’s a small risk, but a real one – but it comes back to what I wrote last week, that I don’t see how he really solves any particular need for them.

Marshall: Has Gonsalves performance this year raised his profile at all in your opinion?
Klaw: Not really. Two-pitch starter struggles with the breaking ball. Walked a lot of guys in double-A but was young for the level (turned 22 on July 8th). Back end starter?

Cole: Is Kendall Graveman becoming a serviceable back of the rotation starter?
Klaw: In Oakland, sure. Anywhere else, I doubt it.

Mike: True or false … Bo Bichette had the best first pro season of any player drafted in 2016.
Klaw: I don’t know, and I’m a big believer in Bo’s bat, but his brother may have had the best first pro season of any player drafted in 2011 and how’d that work out for him?

Chris: Should the Nats bring Reynaldo Lopez on their postseason roster as an extra bullpen guy?
Klaw: I would. I think he’d be dynamite in short relief, and could go 2-3 innings if need be.

jay: do you still recommend that Artaste cleaver, or do you have a new recommendation?
Klaw: It’s what I own and I doubt I’ll need another one for a few decades.

Marcus: The Giants broadcast crew, during last night’s game against the Rockies, mentioned that Nolan Arenado’s brother Jonah had been named MVP of the Giant’s Single-A team in San Jose. It looks like he has some power, but doesn’t walk much and Ks a lot. Can he develop into a major league talent?
Klaw: I liked his swing when I saw him in 2013 but a 21-year-old can’t put up a .286 OBP in A-ball and be any sort of prospect.

Marshall: Doesn’t the justified uproar over the price gouging by Mylan (epi-pen) and Turing Pharma (daraphrim) show the inherent failures of the free market as it relates to the healthcare industry? Health care is an inelastic good, and actual life and death is on the line in these cases.
Klaw: I’ve had the same thought, but am nothing more than a spectator when it comes to the economics of health care. The proper functioning of a free market depends on a lot of things being in place, like low barriers to entry, perfect information, elastic supply and demand, and so on. Most of these fall apart in the market for health care, unfortunately.

section 34: Peter Angelos fires Duquette and hires you, and President Trump orders you to take the job (or some other such scenario where you can’t say no.) How do you proceed? (No fair saying “move to Macau.”)
Klaw: Depends on what Angelos wants, doesn’t it? If the mandate is “win now,” then you go out and find pitching any way you can, which to me would mean making the entire system other than Sisco (who might be the catcher by June 1) available in trade. And you’d have to find a way to work with Buck, who wields as much power as any manager outside of Scioscia.

Tom: Are you seeing Giolito making any improvements or adjustments? Are you still as high on him as the sample size is growing?
Klaw: The sample size remains minuscule. My outlook for him has not changed.

Lucas Giolito: Will I ever hit 99 or 100 again?
Klaw: You haven’t done that since high school, pre-TJ, when you were pitching once a week.

A’s Brand Merlot: Thank you for dissing xFIP. As an ordinary fan I hate the strident way that stat is yielded by other fans, and I also dislike the stat because it doesn’t describe what happened in reality. What other stats do you think are being misused right now? Is FIP itself of value? Should we be using Runs Average instead of ERA?
Klaw: FIP has value and flaws, but I think it’s a viable shorthand for the pitching peripherals we want to look at, reducing some of the noise of ERA at the cost of throwing out some signal too. I always look at RA as well as ERA. I think exit velocity and spin rate are cited too frequently given the paucity of research on their predictive value. (They may have a ton of predictive value. I suspect they will, somehow. I just don’t see any evidence on the subject either way.)

CD: Matt Chapman…power is exciting and obviously legit, but the Ks are a huge problem. He takes his walks, so we know it’s mostly a contact issue. Is there anything the team can do to help him out, or is this just who he’s always gonna be?
Klaw: I think this is who he is. If I told you you could have a player with a 4 bat, 7 power, 7 glove (maybe 8?), 8 arm at third base, you’d take that, right? Useful player if ugly to watch at the plate sometimes?

Tom: It seems like pitchers who come to the D-Backs via signing or trade are significantly worse while pitching here and then generally improve once they move on to another team. Is this park effects, something the organization is doing? Something else?
Klaw: I think they’re having some real issues developing pitchers, especially in working with mechanics. It’s funny to see because they got Robbie Ray and lengthened his stride out so he could finish better over his front side; his velo ticked up and his breaking stuff got way better. Then they’ve screwed up a bunch of other guys, especially Miller, who did at least look much more like his 2015 self in his first start back from his free-agency-delaying trip to Reno.

Jim: No question, just a random fact unrelated to anything in the news: the Mets own their FL St League affiliate in PSL.
Klaw: Thank you – I had this question in my head this morning. I believe they own the Cyclones too.

Cole: During the spring, you wrote about being impressed by Daniel Gossett and he has backed it up with a solid year? Do you see him as a future big league starter? Is he in consideration for a spot in the Top 100?
Klaw: I do think he’s a starter. As I said above, I do not have much of an idea of who’ll be in the back of the top 100.

Drew: I’m looking forward to your book! Given the fact that I have a daughter who’s about to turn two, I do much more listening to audiobooks than actual reading in the traditional sense these days. Will there be an audio version of Smart Baseball, and do you think you may narrate it?
Klaw: I’ve been asked a few questions like that – will there be an audiobook, will I do a book tour, will there be a Spanish version – but unfortunately I don’t know any of these answers. They’re mostly up to Harper Collins. As I know anything more, I’ll be sure to let everyone know on the dish and via my email newsletter.

EC: Are O’s making the right call with Bundy? You’ve said he is what he is at this point, and with his shoulder is likely to not stick around too long, so worth using what you have while you can?
Klaw: I don’t know for sure that he is what he is at this point – I fear that’s the case – but he hasn’t looked great the last 4-5 times out there and I worry that he’s now pitching fatigued, which, given his history, is not what I would recommend.

Phil: Not sure how many Jays games you watch. Bautista does not seem like the same player. Do you think his bat speed has slowed down this year? It sure seems like he can’t hit a fastball anymore.
Klaw: I said just this on TSN 1050 this morning. I think age has cost him some bat speed and the foot injury may have cost him some power.

dca: Why don’t teams convert failed prospects to pitcher more frequently, a la Mychael Givens? Is Givens that much of an outlier?
Klaw: Givens was a pitching prospect in HS. I think I ranked him as a pitcher in his draft, not as a shortstop, because I didn’t think he could hit.

Sebastian: Touki Toussaint had a relief appearance and struck out 3 in an inning. While the Braves will keep him as a starter as long as they can, do you think he ultimately ends up in the pen? And, if so, what’s his ceiling there?
Klaw: I think he’s a starter. Athletic, loose, shows three pitches, smart kid, just raw. Gotta be patient with the baby Braves.

Marshall: The power that Dozier has developed over the last few years seems really out of character in comparison to his early scouting reports and minor league numbers, can you think of any other players that had something similar happen to them when they made the bigs?
Klaw: Matt Duffy’s 2015 season comes to mind.

Rob: Bryan Mitchell has a good arm, but has never K’d many batters. He does seem to have a good sinking fastball. What’s his upside?
Klaw: Middle reliever.

Gus: Thanks for talking about your anxiety. It’s helped to review your past comments as I’ve been dealing with my latest bought. Any recommendations for meditating (apps, books, youtube)?
Klaw: Fully Present is the book I always recommend. InsightLA’s website has some good free downloads for meditation too.

Tom: Is a player’s service time affected by time on a postseason roster, or is it only regular-season games that matter?
Klaw: Only regular season games.

Doug: I saw where you were planning to do one board game review per week on Paste. What are some of your upcoming reviews?
Klaw: My 3 Wishes review just went up today. I’ve already filed reviews of Saloon Tycoon and New Bedford, and need to write up 7 Ronin this week. I think I have eight unreviewed games in the house already and more coming.

Scrapper: Would K Hendricks be top five in NL Cy Young voting on your ballot? If not, why?
Klaw: Probably not because that would be giving him too much credit for what his defense has done for him.

Mikey: Any concern over Cubs’ lack of hitting with RISP? Could be a problem in the playoffs.
Klaw: No because that is still, as ever, not a separate skill from “hitting.”

Albert: I was a bit confused by your book review this week. Do you not believe there is any science behind the power of positive thinking? I highly recommend The Happiness Advantage. Changed my life.
Klaw: There’s quite a bit of science on the harm of “positive thinking” approaches, especially those that preach against allowing any negative thoughts. Burkeman discusses some of that as well. But if you’ve found something that works for you, go for it. I wouldn’t tell you to scrap that and do something else.

JG: AA is rumored to be a candidate for the prez of baseball operations for the Twins. Would he be a good hire?
Klaw: He’d be an outstanding hire. He really fits what they have said they’re looking for.

Bruce: Brandon Woodruff has had a nice season at Brevard County and Biloxi. Does he have a future as a starting pitcher?
Klaw: Yes, definitely.

Ron: You once had Starlin Castro as high as #12 on your top 100 prospects. What do you think happened with him? He’s still surprisingly young, so is there any hope that he can even remotely live up to the promise he once showed?
Klaw: Lot of things, inability to learn/make adjustments foremost among them.

Jeff: Severino looks like a completely different pitcher in the pen. Do you think it makes sense to keep him there as a potentially dominant innings eater in high leverage situations?
Klaw: I have always believed he was more likely to be a reliever than a starter, and the way he was used last night was perfect. I killed Joe G for using Betances in a third straight game on Tuesday but I have to praise him for getting Severino in that long relief spot yesterday.

JB: Mr. Law, Odor is arguably the best player on the best team in the AL, but I haven’t seen any MVP hype for him. Thoughts?
Klaw: He’s 15th in the AL in OBP. From the bottom.

Dave: Has Josh Hader done enough this year to change your opinion on him being a starting pitcher?
Klaw: The delivery hasn’t changed, nor has the stuff, so no.

Marshall: If the Twins called would you answer, or is your current gig just too good (work/life balance, time with your daughter, seemingly good editorial freedom) for you to entertain a change at this juncture in your life?
Klaw: If the Twins called, I would recommend three candidates who are more qualified than I am.

Stomper: Richie Martin hit .230 in the Cal League this year. I know he was a 20 y/o draft pick and young for the league, but that is still wildly disappointing for a first round pick out of the SEC. Do you think the A’s can get him back to his good Cape League swing, or is that a pipe dream considering his struggles his draft year too?
Klaw: I was very disappointed with what I saw from him that spring, so I’m not totally shocked … okay, a little shocked that he struggled like that, slugging .312 even with all those road games in hitters’ parks. Still just 21, but that’s a terrible first year out for an SEC product and first rounder.

Rob: Your thoughts on Heinlein. I was surprised to see there’s been some backlash towards him based on perceived political opinions.
Klaw: Only read a couple of his books and have yet to read the big two titles but I enjoy his work. He was adamant that his fiction did not express political views, though.

Stomper: IIRC, Heath Filmeyer was a two way player in HS and didn’t pitch full time until JC. Given his age, lack of experience, and performance to date, what type of floor/ceiling does he have?
Klaw: Yep, that’s correct. I think he could end up an average starter and is at least a major league bullpen guy. I had him ranked as a top 100 guy, about third round, and still don’t understand why he fell to the fifth when he was totally signable and was not a secret name (there were a dozen guys there the day I saw him). Athletic, arm works, had two pitches already.

Matt: I know you’ve long been a Mike Foltynewicz fan, and he’s shown some flashes of brilliance this year, but has also been incredibly inconsistent. Is there anything you’ve seen or heard to make you think it could all still come together for him? He’s still just 24.
Klaw: I would take his year overall as a positive step. His control, which was awful at times last year, has been the best of his pro career, both in walks and generally in throwing strikes. I’m very optimistic on his future as a starter.

Sriram: If there is a game 163, what are the roster rules? 25-man, 40-man … is it treated like a fresh playoff round (postseason eligibility and whatnot)?
Klaw: It’s a regular season game (I think). I know the game counts towards regular-season stats.

TJ: JaCoby Jones likely outcome- minor leaguer/bench MLBer, solid MLB utility guy, or a MLB position player? If the latter, where would you put him?
Klaw: 4A player. Good athlete, not enough ability to hit.

section 34: I hope you’ll forgive me, you say about so many MiLB catchers “he can’t stick at catcher” that I lose track, but … I thought you said that previously about Chance Sisco. He’s an MLB catcher? Good news for starving O’s fans if so.
Klaw: Don’t know if I ever said that, but he was not very good receiving his first year in pro ball … which was also his second year as a full-time catcher. He keeps improving with experience and I don’t doubt at all that he’ll be a catcher in the majors now.

Doug: Any chance you could offer a “sneak peek” of your Saloon Tycoon review? Thumbs Up?
Klaw: Yes. My daughter really liked it. She never asked what the Brothel tile meant, though.

BD: The 40 man roster in September basically feels like an entirely different game. What is your opinion on it (I am not a fan)
Klaw: I’m not a fan of the infinite bullpens.

j: Are Chance Adams’ size and arm action reasons why he may not stick as a starter?
Klaw: Yep, especially the size issue.

Julius: Late to the chat….in regard to one of your earlier answers, where you said you factor in future growth that could lead to increased velocity in HS pitchers….Say a HS kid tops out at 87-88, yet you are positive that his room to grow and gain strength will lead to increased velocity and a chance to be a front line pitcher….what is the highest you would be able to draft this kid, knowing organizations are going to hedge toward the safety of the present velocity?
Klaw: I think you can find those guys later in the draft, so I wouldn’t rush to take one on day one. Those are good names to target for day two, even if you might have to overpay a little, negotiating with them the night between the second and third rounds.

Tana: Is there really someone who is much more qualified than you to run the player acquisition side of things? Isn’t it more about creating and following a strategy that makes sense? Sure you’ve had your share of misses, but your hits list is good too. In other words, is it a bit like picking stocks?
Klaw: I’m very flattered that you say so, but there are many people in front offices who are not well known to the public but who can do everything I can do, but better, and do more things too. They just can’t chat like I do.

Klaw: Thanks for all of the questions this week. I’ll be back next Thursday for more of the same.

Comments

  1. Keith: Small sample size obviously, but Moncada looks very crude at the plate. Looks like he is being introduced to a curveball for the first time. Roughly how more minor league at bats would you give him?

  2. Any thoughts on the TX -Milw trade now that all pieces have been finalized?

  3. Missed the chat, but wanted to ask whether you are open to fan introductions if you end up making it to WashingCon? I’ll be there Sunday, and it would be great to meet you, but I also don’t want to interfere with you enjoying your own time.

    • I’m always open to it but right now I don’t think I’m going to make the trip.

  4. Where’s my flaw here (besides only looking at a two season sample) … there are 205 pitchers w/ 50+ IP this year and last and the correlation b/w their HR/FB from year to year is 0.08. Doesn’t that support xFIP over FIP if the stat is being used as a predictive measure?

  5. ChicagoMike

    In what way are drugs operating in a free market? Mylan was able to jack up prices on epi-pens because of government interference in the market. Well-intentioned or not, justifiable or not, patent protections and FDA roadblocks in the way of potential alternatives are enabling the price hikes.

  6. Heinlein: Like many of us, his political beliefs evolved. Liberal Dem as a young man, self-described libertarian with strong authoritarian leanings when older. I think that view comes across pretty clearly in several of his later works, such as Starship Troopers – e.g., only those who served in the military can be citizens, or, “20th Century Democracies (collapsed because) people had been led to believe that they could simply vote for whatever they wanted… and get it, without toil, without sweat, without tears.”

    • I fixed that for you. He was pretty adamant about Starship Troopers having no political message, IIRC, even though I too thought it had an overt meaning.

  7. Figured you would be interested in this if you haven’t seen it. IHSA (Illinois) has imposed pitch count limits for high school pitchers.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/highschool/ct-spt-0901-prep-ihsa-pitch-count-20160831-story.html

    • Thanks, I did comment on it once on Twitter. The national association essentially forced the states’ hands on this and I’m very very good with the outcome.

  8. “Horrible to say but I haven’t been to the Pacific Northwest in 15 years”

    So you’ve never been to Radiator Whiskey? That’s fecking tragic.

  9. Re: Meditation Apps, I highly recommend Headspace. It has a pack on Anxiety. Also thanks for the recommendation of Fully Present. Downloading on Kindle.

  10. The Aleppo thing turned out to be a net positive, as it brought a lot of attention to the Libertarian campaign. Since not many people in this country care about Aleppo, the damage was minimal, although ignorance on a subject is not a well you want to dip into more than once. Moreover, Hilary was a Secretary of State and claims not to know that a “c” in an e-mail denoted “classified.” That would seem to be more problematic than having a brain fart about Aleppo.

    Law is mistaken on the anti-vax thing. Thats Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Law is probably so concerned about Trump getting elected that he just lumps all third party candidates into one category of “counts as a vote for Trump.”

    Comical that he implies government efforts to fight climate change as “non-political.” Its the definition of a political solution.

    • 1. I fail to see how headline after headline about how stupid/ignorant Johnson is ends up as a net positive.

      2. Perhaps you did not see the recent poll from The Economist that reveals that ISIS is the #1 concern of Americans in this election. Not the economy, not jobs, not bathrooms in North Carolina. ISIS. So, I suspect that the issues that Aleppo connects with are of more interest to the public than you say.

      3. A “c” in a State Department email actually means “confidential.” Given that you didn’t get it right, despite it having been all over the news for months, perhaps her error is a bit more forgivable.

      4. Johnson is not opposed to vaccines, perhaps, but is opposed to mandatory vaccination, and so we end up at the same net result. It takes literally two seconds to look this up, by the way.

      5. I think you did not understand the meaning of Keith’s statement. Johnson believes that climate change, as an issue, was created to advance the interests of a specific political faction. Keith was rejecting that notion, quite correctly. Anyone who believes that climate change is just an invention of politicians is engaging in conspiracy thinking.

    • I’d also bet nearly every email she ever writes or received is marked “c”. The designation is meaningless.

      I’m a litigator and pretty much every single client email ends up with a privileged-confidential designation even when it is clearly not privileged or confidential.

      For Clinton, there are probably 4 higher levels of confidentiality above mere “confidential”, top secret being the top. So you can worry about the emails or you can just trust the result of the FBI investigations.

    • Rob,

      There are three levels of classification:

      1) Top Secret (which has further identifiers, such as SCI; this does not denote a higher level of classification, just a different manner in which it is disseminated)
      2) Secret
      3) Confidential

      Legally, there is actually no difference between mis-handling something marked Confidential or something marked TS/SCI; the charge is mis-handling classified national security documents. As to your assertion that “nearly every email she ever writes or received is marked ‘c,'” and that “the designation is meaningly,” I suspect you are speaking from ignorance on this matter. This is not like the confidential you use in your work; the equivalent is either FOUO (For Official Use Only) or SBU (Sensitive But Unclassified) in the federal service. Those can be sent via unclassified email with impunity, and are accessible by people without clearances (e.g., I don’t have a clearance, but I regularly access things mark FOUO; if I ever see anything marked with a classification stamp or written marking, I know to a) not touch it/open it/keep reading if already opened, and b) notify our security officer).

      She should have exercised greater caution. There is literally no reasonable argument against that. Whether you think it is as serious an issue as I do (aka, it literally pains me to think of voting for her because of it, but, ya know, Trump….ugh. This election sucks) is another matter, and there are reasonable arguments on both sides of that issue, but no one can argue that security regulations were not broken without simply ignoring the facts.

  11. But there was an FBI investigation which resulted in no crime or charges. The FBI concluded she was careless to have the private server and that some emails on the server were confidential. You are taking it more serious than the FBI. Out of tens of thousands of emails on her server they found three that were marked “c”. The fake outrage over this story is incredible, but sure, it is a knock. Anyone is free to decide how big of a knock it is.

    The alternative is a candidate that is a racist, bigot, fraud, who appears to suffer from several mental disorders. He is a liar, laughably uninformed, unqualified, unintelligent, and unfit. Its no exaggeration that his talk is dangerous to the stability of the world. Newsweek actually detailed today how he might personally profit if South Korea is forced to build Nuclear weapons due to Trump not recognizing treaties and agreements with allies.

    Given these choices I’m likely to overlook the email server.

    • Sam,

      I’m not sure what report you read, but there were a lot more than 3 that were marked as Confidential (and there were also about 10 email threads containing TS classified information, albeit unmarked; TS classification means that if it were to be accessed by an unauthorized party/adversary, it would cause “grave danger” to the national security of the U.S., and it is hilarious to think that her account, which the FBI said was less secure than my GMail account, wasn’t hacked), and at no point did they say there was no crime. There were no charges, because they said that a conviction was not feasible, but that absolutely does not mean a crime did not occur. It is also somewhat absurd to think politics didn’t play a part in this; not of the Democrat/Republican variety, but of the “we may one day be working for this person, or someone close to her” type, and so there was likely a good bit more caution on the decision to pursue charges or not.

      I probably did not make it clear enough that as much of a problem as I have with her on this (which I would disagree is “more serious” than the FBI’s problem; that report was, at best, scathing and calls into serious question Secretary Clinton’s judgment on matters of security), I will likely be voting for her out of fear of Trump. The only other serious presidential candidate (Huckabee and Carson don’t really count, for different reasons) that I can think of from this cycle who appalled me as much as her was Cruz, and yet because I live in a swing state, I probably have to just buck up and deal and vote for her. That’s because Trump is either insane or…nope, no other option I can think of. Again, this election sucks. A lot.

      Last thing I’d like to say, and you’re welcome to disagree with this, but I think you’re flat out wrong on there being “fake outrage.” Sure, some people are using it as a political hatchet, because that’s what happens in American politics, but the people I know who are most angry about it are people with clearances. They believe (and I think they’re right; maybe not, but who knows) that if they were to do what she had done, they’d have lost their jobs, have had their clearances stripped, and likely faced charges. Some of these people are Republicans, but some are Democrats; some are even going to vote for Secretary Clinton despite this, because of their antipathy towards Trump.

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