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Keith Law, ESPN Senior Writer 7y

Key factors to watch in Jays-Rangers ALDS

I'm of the opinion that most playoff series odds are no better than about 55-45, even when one team is clearly superior to the other, because of the randomness inherent in short series and in baseball in general. The playoffs aren't about finding out who is the "best" team, but determining a World Series winner. And while sometimes those two coincide, they often don't, which is a big part of why the MLB playoffs are more interesting than the NBA playoffs, where the best team nearly always comes out on top.

Nate Silver and Dayn Perry wrote a piece for Baseball Between the Numbers that showed the small but significant effect a few team factors had on playoff success: three good starters, a good closer and good team defense. Pitching and defense don't necessarily win championships, but they help a lot. That piece and some subsequent research form a big part of how I look at short series, even acknowledging that predicting them is a bit of a fool's errand.

And with that, here's my analysis for the American League Division Series between Toronto and Texas. For Boston and Cleveland, head here.

Toronto vs. Texas

A rematch of one of last year's AL Division Series, this year's version features significant differences because of player health and the Jays' 11-inning victory over the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card game, perhaps enough to shift the odds in Texas' favor this year.

Ignore the run differential

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