Klawchat, 9/29/16.

My annual look at players I got wrong is up for Insiders. You can also preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon.

Klaw: I’m sorry, but I’m just thinking of the right words to say. Klawchat.

Lark11: I’m curious about your view (if I recall correctly) that A.J. Preller shouldn’t be fired for the player medical records machinations. Wasn’t that pure fraud/intentional misrepresentation? Coming on the heels of Preller’s previous misdeed, isn’t this an important data point? Doesn’t it call into question the integrity of the entire organization?
Klaw: I think you’re assuming we know all the details of the transgression. I certainly don’t.

Chris Matthews: Who’s your favorite foreign leader?
Klaw: President Don Vincente Ribiera.

Nelson: If news came out the next day that Fernandez was drunk and driving the boat, would/should the memorials have been any different?
Klaw: I was afraid that this might actually happen. His death isn’t any less of a tragedy for it. We might choose not to honor him in the same way, but I would hate to see anyone argue that we shouldn’t mourn his death.

Omar Little: Is Verlander or Kluber the frontrunner for CY young right now? JV has the better numbers overall, but not by much. I know Sale is up there too. It won’t be Porcello will it? Thanks KLAW for all you do!
Klaw: I think Verlander’s got a solid narrative behind him – we thought he was done as an elite starter, now he’s probably top 3 in the league – although I am not sure I’d put him over Sale or Kluber.

Jake: If we are going to focus on the SSS of Tebow yesterday, how about we discuss the 5 outs in 6 at bats against players ten years younger?
Klaw: How about we ignore him like the washed-up quarterback he is?

Daniel, Texas: Why is Ian Desmond having such a poor second half? Is Carlos Gomez the better player for CF going forward in 2017?
Klaw: Desmond’s first half was the outlier. (I’ve noticed the trolls telling me I was wrong to criticize that signing have disappeared, too.) I prefer Gomez’s raw ability and potential for plus defense, but isn’t banking on him a huge bet on a tiny sample?

Brian Gunn: Hi Klaw. In today’s ESPN piece you write that the Cubs “position their fielders as well as any team in baseball.” Yet they also shift less often than any team in baseball. Does Sean Ahmed (their defensive metrics guru) know something normally progressive teams like the Astros and Pirates don’t? And if so, do you think there will be a move AWAY from shifts in upcoming seasons?
Klaw: It’s a coding issue – BIS doesn’t mark anything as a shift if it doesn’t involve an infielder moving to the opposite side of second base. (I’m 99% sure that’s correct.) Soif you move your shortstop so that he’s essentially behind second base, that’s not marked as a “shift,” but it looks like a shift to me – it’s extreme positioning, at least. So no, I don’t think you’ll see a move away from shifts, but you will absolutely see a rise in fine-tuning positioning per batter or per batter-pitcher combo and away from ‘dumb’ shifts where you just run the third baseman out into short right field for any pull-hitting LHB.

JT: Why and how are such terrible sites being cited during this campaign? Florida’s state GOP just tweeted a tinfoil hat site (infowars), as a for instance.
Klaw: Because people choose what they want to believe first and find links to confirm those beliefs second. Drop in on any so-called debate between vaccine denialists and, well, rational human beings, and you’ll see the former hit you with a stream of links from garbage sites that promote junk science over real research.

JR, CT: Hi Keith, would you give the Mets any chance against the Cubs with their rotation in the shape it is now. I imagine best case is the lefty power bats get/stay hot and they can slug their way to some ugly wins?
Klaw: I would never give any team in a playoff series less than 45% odds to win it.

Jeff: A question some friends and I have been thinking about – can you name a player off the top of your head, whose reputation as a “great” player has been damaged by the advent of sabermetrics? I feel like Pete Rose would be one such player. Christ, the guy was named All Century and some delusional people still argue that he is the best hitter/player who ever lived.
Klaw: Andre Dawson. Tony Perez. I guess Jim Rice, although no one ever considered him a great player until he became the Luddites’ cause celebre. Jack Morris, perhaps.

Lance: What is the ideal Wild Card game roster construction?
Klaw: Carry 5-6 relievers and stack the bench with PH options (and maybe a Terence Gore if you have one).

Jason: What were your thoughts of Jonathan Villar coming through the minors? Did you think he had this much power?
Klaw: Nope. When he was traded to Houston I wrote that I didn’t foresee more than fringe-average power. Granted that was five or six years ago, but still, he’s got more than that.

kg: If you were a GM, would you prefer to play a youngster with a low ceiling or sign a veteran that you might be able to flip at the trade deadline for better prospects? Assuming that your team isn’t expected to make the playoffs this year. I would think the veteran with hopes to acquire prospects might be a better option since most teams can afford to fit a veteran’s contract into their budget anyway.
Klaw: Depends on what that “low ceiling” is. An average everyday player who makes $500K a year is an extremely valuable commodity, even if there’s zero chance he’s ever better than that.

Nick: What’s your take on Alex Jackson? Do you still think he can become a middle-of-the-order bat with the right coaching and adjustments? Does he have to get out of the Seattle org?
Klaw: I would not give up on him entirely given his youth, but every report I got this year was negative.

Owen: Regarding Terriers (from your review of TV: The Book), it might be the greatest single-season show in history. You should absolutely try to squeeze it in this winter.
Klaw: It’s on the list I’ve created for myself, although the odds are good I won’t get through much this winter because we never seem to have that much time between when my daughter falls asleep and when we have to do the same.

Mike: Thoughts on Spencer Kieboom’s promotion?
Klaw: Great defender, pitchers love working with him, long shot to do much with the bat. The Ramos injury is just brutal for them.

NeedsMoneyToLive: I couldn’t tweet my support since I work for an MLB club, but worse than the “new GM mold” is the insistence on requiring lengthy unpaid internships in order to be considered for a job in MLB. I know you’ve supported eliminating them before but the spotlight really needs to go on this awful practice.
Klaw: Totally agree. I think everyone in MLB knows there’s a problem, but the status quo is working for individual owners so they don’t want to be the ones to change it.

Jason: How long until a team announces that, absent extraordinary circumstances, no pitcher will go through the lineup more than 3 times?
Klaw: Why announce it? Just do it. Let other teams figure it out. Plus this way you avoid media questions when those circumstances do occur.

Nick: Cesar Hernandez as a 4.2 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR. Is he really an above-average regular moving forward or are we just seeing a random spike in the defensive metrics?
Klaw: I’ve spoken to a lot of analysts while working on my book, and one thing that’s come up often is skepticism of large one-year spikes in defensive metrics like this one. If a player is +15 like CH is this year, without any history of it, you can say with some certainty that he’s been an above-average defender, but should doubt that he’s been THAT good a defender. MLB clubs have much more precise data to work with and they implied that they get fewer of these outliers.

Jason: Are advanced scouting tools inevitably skewed toward run prevention (e.g., batted ball days leading to defensive positioning)? If not, what types of things can you envision that would help offense?
Klaw: That’s what’s happening right now with analytics, but I think the new data streams will end up influencing all parts of the game. Defensive positioning is just the low-hanging fruit.

Nick: Who’s more likely to put it all together moving forward: Eric Hosmer or Yasiel Puig?
Klaw: Still think there’s something more to be extracted from Hosmer’s bat. Might need a different organization & hitting philosophy.

Marcus: Hi Keith. Thanks for the weekly chats. The Giants have been lacking a true power threat pretty much since Bonds. When I look through their minor league system, I don’t see any big-time power threats and what players they have with a modicum of power look like they strikeout a lot. Have they got anyone who could develop into a 30-40 HRs a year power threat at the big league level?
Klaw: Not off the top of my head. Shaw has that kind of raw power, but it’s a below-average hit tool (slow bat, doesn’t see the ball well). Reynolds is more like a 25 HR/25 SB guy, and strikeouts are an issue with him because he tends to run very deep counts and needs a better two-strike approach. I like him quite a bit, though, more than Shaw.

Colin: Have you written anywhere about your favorite roasters in the US? I am looking to try some new stuff
Klaw: I assume we’re talking coffee here. I haven’t, but here’s a bunch: Intelligentsia, Four Barrel, Blue Bottle, Cartel, heart, Archetype, Deeper Roots, Re-Animator, Royal Mile, Cuvee, 49th Parallel (BC).

Ridley Kemp: Rolling Stone left The Prisoner completely off their top 100 TV shows list. Were there such glaring omissions from the TV: The Book book?
Klaw: Nothing I noticed. I mentioned in my review that I thought Will & Grace might get a mention, since it was a cultural milestone, but it just wasn’t that great a show, especially after the first two seasons, and Sepinwall confirmed to me that that was the reason it didn’t make the cut. (The Prisoner wasn’t eligible for their book because it was British.)

Eric: Regarding Kyle Hendricks, you may have been wrong but certainly at least some of his success is due to landing on the right team at the right time. To his credit, he appears to have reached his 99% percentile of optimal performance. Is that more on him or on the Cubs? I feel that baseball is littered with prospects that could have been somebody if they had only been on the team with the right coaching and management in place to maximize their talent but maybe I’m overstating it.
Klaw: I talked about that a little bit, but I didn’t want to make it seem like I was somehow walking back the assertion that I made a mistake. (I hate calling it an “admission,” as if I made a moral error. “Forgive me, Bill James, for I have sinned.”) You are correct in that he is in the right place at the right time in baseball history, where the Cubs, a very analytically-minded organization top to bottom, could see him and the data and get him to throw his changeup more, to try to work more to the edges of the strike zone, to encourage contact because the fielders will be in the right places. Give the player credit too – I would always rather say, hey, I was wrong, because the kid made me wrong.

JJ: DId Yoan Moncada benefit at all from riding the bench for the Red Sox over the last six weeks? Aside from the pretty healthy per diem. In his limited ABs, he struck me as a guy who absolutely needed another 750 plate appearance in the minors (at least), not to mention a ton of innings at whatever defensive position they’ve chosen for him.
Klaw: Yes and perhaps that’s the benefit – it told everybody that he needs to start next year in the minors.

Danny: I’ve seen people suggest it would be appropriate to honor Jose Fernandez by voting for him to win the Cy Young award. Normally, I’m opposed to “stunts” like this that would otherwise never be suggested if not for tragic circumstances..but you could certainly do a lot worse with your Cy vote this year..
Klaw: He’s deserving, but not the top candidate. Perhaps the NL Cy Young Award could become the Jose Fernandez Award, and the Cy Young Award would just refer to the AL?

Ted: Do you agree with the notion that postseason results are just based on randomness?
Klaw: No. I believe that a human predicting the results will fare no better than a random prediction. I believe that a lot of luck goes into the postseason, from health to timing to matchups. But to say they’re just based on randomness would wipe out any role the players themselves play. Madison Bumgarner having the October of his life – of anyone’s life – was not “random.” The result, the Giants winning the WS as the 8th best team in baseball, may seem random in context, but the victory itself was not random.

Jason: Could Zach Davies have a similar career arc of Kyle Hendricks? I am not saying under 2 ERA good, but a solid #3 starter type?
Klaw: He was quietly very good this year, and I looked at him for today’s article but decided there wasn’t really enough of a delta between what he did and what I thought he’d be (4/5 starter). League-average starter? I’ll buy that.

Ron: Keith-Did the Twins hire Falvey? Good hire? Whom do you think he will tap for GM?
Klaw: They will be hiring him. I don’t know him that well, and am surprised they would hire a President who has never formally run a department of any sort; they interviewed Chaim Bloom, who appears to have the same skill set and background, but has managed a department before. That’s not a knock on Falvey per se, and may simply reflect my own ignorance. I have no sense of what they’ll do for GM.

William: I have a hard time understanding why people often rush to deny science and politicize it. Once a concept is established it just seems foolish to fight it. With climate change for example, it is ok to disagree with the best policies to combat it, but I fail to see how denying man’s role in it serves a political ideology. I am convinced that the vaccine deniers and climate change deniers would have been Heliocentrism “skeptics” in the 16th and 17th centuries.
Klaw: Yet we have a major political party arguing it’s bunk, and its candidate for President claiming it’s a fiction created by China. This is an existential crisis that affects everybody – the cost of food, the supply of clean water, the feasibility of living near coasts, global energy costs and supply – and slightly more than half of our polity is in abject denial.

Adam: Hunter Dozier — is he a DUDE or just a dude?
Klaw: Just a dude, I think.

Greg: Assuming all the Mets 7 good SP’s (not including Lugo) are healthy going into next yr (obviously a huge huge assumption) do you think the Mets should go straight up with a 6 man rotation?
Klaw: I’m not certain that actually helps – pitching guys less within games seems like it has more benefit in fatigue reduction. That’s based on scant evidence, though. Either way, this is hypothetical because it seems impossible that all seven will be healthy at the same time.

Jonny B: What would be more upsetting: Britton winning the AL Cy Young, or someone other than Trout winning AL MVP? For some reason, the idea of any closer winning the Cy Young seems objectively indefensible.
Klaw: Upsetting is putting it strongly; the writers as a whole are bad at this stuff and will always be, perhaps increasingly so as the gap between what teams know and what we know increases. If Trout loses, it’ll be to Betts, who’s #2. If Britton loses, it would be like David Ortiz winning MVP this year – a narrative defeating facts.

Jorge: We’re cooking a 1.5 lb corned beef using our sous vide machine. We’ve seen a ton of diff advice on what lenghth/temp to do it at. What says you?
Klaw: I say corned beef is disgusting.

Bryan: How come you love to pull the “absence of evidence…” card on a multitude of occasions, but still refuse to acknowledge the mere possibility that PED’s might assist player performance without iron clad proof?
Klaw: I’ve acknowledged the possibility on numerous occasions, and even supported it in the case of amphetamines. So I don’t think you know what you’re talking about.

JG: With Falvey only being 33, do you see any animosity with a GM who likely will be older?
Klaw: Well, if that’s the case, Falvey shouldn’t hire him.

Danny: My Asdrubal Cabrera cog diss is kicking in again. I know the numbers say he is no longer a good player, but every game he seems get a huge hit or make a great play. Please give me another dose of reality and remind me the numbers don’t match what my eyes are seeing.
Klaw: They don’t. UZR has him 18th of 24 shortstops this year, and a couple of guys below him aren’t really shortstops. Also, it has Elvis Andrus among the worst, which surprised me. UZR isn’t the be-all and end-all but it matches the eye test on Cabrera.

Michael: Coffee: black or with milk/cream?
Klaw: If it’s real coffee, black, no sweetener.

Ryan: If you got to ask one debate question for both candidates, what would you ask?
Klaw: Explain the difference between Keynesian economics and the monetarist school. Or something about climate change, but this year that would be a rout.

Ant: Reports indicate Austin Riley was catching up to fastballs much better in the second half. Still down on him?
Klaw: Yes. His bat speed hasn’t changed – that’s wishful thinking.

Randy: I’ve seen comps that have compared Alex Verdugo to Markakis, is that about right or do you have a different comp?
Klaw: I think he has more power than Markakis ever managed to show in the majors, although Markakis as a prospect projected to show more than he ever did.

Rob: I love Carcassonne, but haven’t tried any of the expansions. What are the best, and are any of them “essential” (IE, you wouldn’t want to play without them again)?
Klaw: Traders and Builders is pretty awesome.

Bill: In his post-game press conference, Brad Ausmus said that he was reticent about bringing Fulmer back after a 45-minute rain delay in a game in which he had already thrown 68 pitches in three innings. I’m thinking “insane” or possibly “foolhardy.” Any other descriptions come to mind?
Klaw: Didn’t he pull the same shit with Daniel Norris last September? A 50-something pitch first inning, right? Just fire him. This isn’t a solitary error in judgment. It’s a pattern of ignorance. (And hire Alex Cora to replace him!)

Anonymous: As an advocate, I’m curious for your thoughts. I’ve considered being screened for anxiety/depression with medication following, but am hesitant because I don’t like the idea that taking meds means I’m no longer “me”? Any advice?
Klaw: Been taking meds for anxiety for four years and I’m more “me” with them than I ever was without them. Prior to that – I take escitalopram, 20mg/day – the person you saw, met, even talked to online was dominated by the effects of the constant low hum of anxiety. Now I think more clearly, I’m more deliberate, I’m calmer, and everyone in my life has noticed.

Adam: Hi Keith! Thanks for everything you do. I enjoy reading your book reviews, and want to start reviewing the books I read as well to help me form my thoughts about them. I’m curious, did you write reviews for yourself before you had a platform? And do you take notes about books you read, or just compose the reviews on the fly?
Klaw: Never wrote for myself before, and I rarely take notes unless there’s a great quote I want to remember. Glad you enjoy them.

Anthony: Coffee: light, medium, or dark roast?
Klaw: Light. I’m a third-wave guy.

JT: What percentage of the claims against Clinton are legitimately true? Think that she’s on her death bed, she had detractors killed, she ordered a stand down in Benghazi, she ruined her husband’s accusers, she’s really a reptile level junk.
Klaw: Who can tell? I feel like the GOP would do better to focus on the actual policy questions, such as things she voted for in Congress that were mistakes – I would say the Patriot Act, but that’s probably not a good talking point for them – rather than this stuff or blaming her for her husband’s imbroglios.

JP: What if Keurig offered you $1 billion to endorse their K-cups? Does even Klaw’s dignity have a price?
Klaw: No shot. Bad coffee + environmental disaster.

JC: Is Goldschmitt the player you’ve missed out on by the widest margin in your career? BTW I think your track record is amazing.
Klaw: I think so. And if I could time-travel back to when he was in the minors, the one thing I would tell myself most on him is “just give him more of a chance.”

Ramanujan: Are bat speed and power correlated? I assume power comes from hitting a ball hard, which I assumed meant keeping the bat moving quickly (while keeping your hands and wrists rigid)…or does keeping the bat rigid as possible matter more for power (while moving the bat quickly is literally all that is necessary to have bat speed)? I’ve heard you mention a few times that people
Klaw: I don’t think that’s true. Power comes from hard contact and launch angle. Hard contact can come from strength too, especially wrist and forearm strength.

Adam: Any college pitchers in this draft with TOR potential?
Klaw: Wright and Faedo might.

Adam: Thoughts on the DBacks firing of De Jon Watson?
Klaw: I’d heard some anecdotal stuff about his time there that was unfavorable, but nothing to compare to the more concrete stories about TLR and Stewart screwing up the rules or mishandling their players. I think De Jon got scapegoated bigly.

Adam: At least two national writers believed the Padres should have been forced to send Anderson Espinoza back and received a lesser prospect from the Red Sox in light of the Preller fiasco. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: Can’t see how you can do that. You can only send the two teams back to the negotiating table, at which point Preller would have said “just send back Pomeranz.” It works better when the player with the injury issue is the prospect or one of the prospects, not the main target in the deal.

Jamie: I am sure you have heard of Harvard’s new policy on final clubs. What are your thoughts on the clubs themselves and the policy?
Klaw: They were extralegal when I was there; I don’t know if they still are. I wasn’t in one – it was largely rich kids or occasionally athletes, and I was and remain neither – and they were mostly invisible to me. (Fraternities are illegal at Harvard, for those who don’t know. For that I was fairly grateful.)

Adam: Baseball player most likely to kneel during the national anthem: Bryce Harper?
Klaw: Carlos Delgado wouldn’t stand for it in protest of the US Navy’s use of Vieques for bombing practice. It wasn’t that big of a deal at the time. Harper wouldn’t kneel, though – I think you’ve got his profile wrong.

Steve: Better 1B bat: Ronald Guzman or Rhys Hoskins?
Klaw: Hoskins. I am not sold on Hoskins’ real power, but Guzman I think has that.

Logan: What’s your opinion on Maikel Franco going forward? Is his low OBP due to lack of anything protecting him and trying to do too much?
Klaw: It’s his approach. What you offered are excuses. He’s never been a patient or disciplined hitter; he has great plate coverage, even out of zone, and is so damn strong he can do stuff with pitches other guys couldn’t hit fair. But he needs a significant improvement in his selectivity for his OBP to become acceptable.

Sgt Donnelly: Whose stock would you buy for the next 5 years: Buxton or Mazara? PS Thanks for sharing your baseball insight
Klaw: The offensive bar for Buxton to become an average big leaguer is so low because of his great defense & baserunning that I’d take him, easily. And I love Mazara.

Tracy: Have you read anything beyond The Hound of the Baskervilles? I’m asking because I’m eyeing an exquisite hardbound volume of Conan Doyle’s complete Sherlock Holmes works and I’m wondering if it’s worth it.
Klaw: A bunch of the short stories. They’re all great.

Nick: Thoughts on AJ Reed this year? IIRC you had some concerns about how his bat speed would play in the majors. Do you think that played a part in his high K rate, or was he maybe being too passive? Obviously he didn’t have too much of an opportunity to get acclimated with HOU fighting for a playoff spot this season.
Klaw: I think it was a factor, yes. Had he gotten more time in the majors, I think he would have made the same kind of adjustments he made in the minors, going the other way more with pitches he couldn’t get around on, which is why I rated him fairly highly despite concerns about the bat speed. For the reader who asked about Riley above, that’s the kind of player you hope he can become.

Aaron: I know it’s an extremely SSS, but less swing and miss so far from Renfroe. Encouraged?
Klaw: No, because it’s an extremely SSS.

Jeremy: It seems like you fit a ton of things you love to do into the same 24 hours I have, but I feel like I don’t do anything I enjoy. Any tips?
Klaw: I never want to assume too much about time, since some folks have to work two jobs or crazy hours just to pay the bills, but since you’re here I’ll guess that you have some flexibility. First thing I’d say is think about how you use your day and look for the time you’re not using well. I never sit in front of the TV unless it’s for something I really want to watch, for example. I used to do that, and then after a while I realized I was wasting part of every day and getting nothing out of it.

Elton: What are your thoughts on Peraza and Herrera for the Reds next year? Would the optimal result be Herrera at 2B (assuming they somehow liquidate Brandon Phillips) and Peraza as a roving backup/punch runner?
Klaw: I’d play Herrera at 2b and send Peraza back to AAA to play every day, preferably at SS. Peraza’s performance there this year was pretty mediocre and I wouldn’t be rushing him into a MLB job at ~23.

Brayden: Is JP Crawford still an elite prospect after a down year or is he over-hyped? Yes he was young for AAA but his gap power is non-existent.
Klaw: You’re scouting the stat line, and yes, he’s still an elite prospect, just very young for AAA as you said.

Nick: Speaking of players you were wrong about, do you still like the Jason Heyward contract?
Klaw: Yes, actually.

Rick: Why was Corey Seager passed on by 17 other teams? What was your report on him coming out of high school?
Klaw: He wasn’t “passed on” by other teams. He wanted well over slot, and had Boras, so some teams were afraid to take him and find he wouldn’t sign. This isn’t Trout again. Everyone knew that kid was special.

Chris: Great job as always in identifying who you were wrong about each year and owning up to that fact. You get it right a lot but it’s impossible to be perfect. Having said that, who are some players you missed on that you thought would be sure things at the major league level?
Klaw: Smoak is the one who’ll always bother me, because I never saw him do anything but hit, and pro scouts I talked to just raved about him up until he was traded to Seattle at the least. I thought Wieters would be a much better hitter too, while I’m at it. Lot of pitchers I liked were derailed by injuries – I had Zach Britton as a potential #2 starter.

Klaw: That’s all for this week; thank you as always for all of your questions. I’ll be back next Thursday if I’m not crushed by a hurricane.