I'm of the opinion that most playoff series odds are no better than about 55-45, even when one team is clearly superior to the other, because of the randomness inherent in short series and in baseball in general. The playoffs aren't about finding out who is the "best" team, but determining a World Series winner. And while sometimes those two coincide, often they don't -- which is a big part of why the MLB playoffs are more interesting than the NBA playoffs, in which the best team nearly always comes out on top.

Nate Silver and Dayn Perry wrote a story for Baseball Between the Numbers that showed the small but significant effect a few team factors had on playoff success: three good starters, a good closer and good team defense. Pitching and defense don't necessarily win championships, but they help a lot. That piece and some subsequent research form a big part of how I look at short series, even acknowledging that predicting them is a bit of a fool's errand.

And with that, here's my analysis for the American League Division Series between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians. For the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers, head here.

Boston vs. Cleveland

The Red Sox boasted the best offense in the AL by far during the regular season, outscoring every other team by 101 runs, while Cleveland was one of only two AL teams to post an ERA under 4.00 (3.84) this year (the Blue Jays -- 3.78 -- were the other), thanks in part to the league's best bullpen and some dominant starting pitching. Unfortunately for Cleveland, two of their four starters are on the shelf, probably for the remainder of the team's season. Getting to that great relief corps against Boston's lineup will be a substantial challenge for the replacement starters.

Boston's lineup is relentless