Klawchat 11/4/16.

You can preorder my upcoming book, Smart Baseball, on amazon. Also, please sign up for my more-or-less weekly email newsletter.

My latest boardgame review for Paste is up, covering Beyond Baker Street, a Hanabi-like game with a Sherlock theme and deduction component.

Klaw: Pretend-to-be chats don’t seem to know they limitation. Klawchat.

Brad: So I get that Maybin was a lousy CF defensively, but he was still the only viable CF option in the Tigers organization. Al Avila saying there will be a competition between Tyler Collins, Anthony Gose and Jacoby Jones is all fluff, right? I can’t see the Maybin trade being made unless Avila is confident he can get an MLB ready CF in a trade for JD Martinez or Ian Kinsler. Thoughts?
Klaw: I don’t think any of those three guys is a CF answer. Jones can’t hit and I don’t think he can play center. Collins can’t play CF. Gose can’t hit. I don’t mind the Maybin trade because that’s now two years of atrocious numbers for him in center, but the replacement isn’t here.

John Liotta: I know you have had a busy year this year, what with writing a book, etc., but have you been able to keep your reading pace from last year when you read 100 books?
Klaw: I finished my 78th book in the car (audio, folks, settle down) today driving down from CT. I guess I’ll end up with 90-odd? I’m working my way through the Pulitzer winners, which will slow me down because some of the remainders are very long.

Marshall MN: Klaw have you already begun work on your Top 100 prospect list or do you give yourself a little bit of an “off season” once the series is done?
Klaw: I can’t get to that till I’m through free agent rankings.

Jesse: Adam Rubin noted yesterday that the Mets are very high on 1B Peter Alonso. I was wondering if you could give some info on him and your general thoughts. I was surprised to hear this as most fans have heard of Dom Smith as the 1b of the future.
Klaw: Alonso’s a nice prospect, outside chance to be a regular, not as good as Smith – they’re the same age, in fact, and Smith already has a solid season in AA behind him.

Jeremy: Are we at the point where the White Sox just need to bite the bullet and do a complete rebuild?
Klaw: I think that would be the right direction, given the farm system’s thinness (although it’s improved a lot in the last year-plus). It’s hard to see them buying enough help to contend even with Sale and Quintana leading the rotation.

Tom: Wednesday night was not just #fyeahbaseball, it was #fyeahsports.
Klaw: I would agree with that. I love how many people are still talking about Game 7. When was the last time we had that? 2001?

JT: What is the biggest move your foresee David Stearns making this winter ?
Klaw: Unless he trades Ryan Braun I doubt there’s a big move coming there.

#FlyTheW: Hoping to pick your scouting brain and compare it to what I see with my untrained eye. Addison Russel seems to take a lot of fastballs for strikes early in the count and then often chases off-speed outside the zone later in the count. Do you think he would benefit for jumping in the first fastball he sees, or do you think he is taking the correct approach?
Klaw: I don’t know that that’s necessarily true about his approach.

Rich O: Do the Yankees make a move for an impact bat (i.e. Cespedes, Encarnacion etc) this offseason?
Klaw: Is that what they really need? They have corner bats who need to play. If they go external it should be for pitching, not 1b/dh/lf types.

Chuck: “In a world full of greed, we’ll never want more…” is not entirely true. Do you see any of the Cubs prospects making a difference in Chicago next year? Johnson, maybe? And how long before Jimenez arrives?
Klaw: Jimenez is at least two years off, I think – late 2018 would be the soonest I’d expect to see him. Clifton is probably 2018. Cease further off. Happ could appear in 2017, though I’m not sure where he would fit. Do you mean Pierce Johnson? He just had an awful year in AAA at 25, and I never liked his arm action, so I don’t see any impact from him.

Max: I’ve been pretty set on voting for Stein for quite some time, but with Killary apologists it’s almost driving me to vote for the lesser of two evils from the big corporate party: Donald Trump. Your endless smear campaigns agaibst 3rd party candidates and white washing of every disgusting thing Clinton has done (you aren’t the only one guilty of this to be fair) probably hasn’t just alienated me I’d bet. I hope you and those following the same path as you know you’re just driving people to vote this way.
Klaw: I’m going to go on a limb and say that someone who refers to Clinton as “Killary” is perhaps not the most rational-minded voter in the electorate.

MJ: Other than the managers and Theo, how many future HOF’s in game 7? Lester? I assume it’s too soon for Rizzo, Bryant and Lindor even though they are the right path.
Klaw: Francona yes, Maddon probably has a ways to go but the ring helps. Lester no. Those three you named are all kids who are off to the right starts but way too far off to call any future HoFers. Zobrist has 40 career fWAR – is he the leader on both rosters?

Dave: Know you don’t watch a ton of TV, but any current favorites? I’m currently addicted to Shameless for what it’s worth.
Klaw: Not really. We watch Brooklyn 99, a little behind on the Good Place, and that’s about it. Got some stuff we want to binge on now that the season’s over but we’ll see if that happens.

jimbonova: Criticism of ownership and sports “journalism:” It seems to be me that certain issues are off-limits to sports media. For instance, mistakes by ownership. I am a Red Sox fan and while this ownership group has brought three World Series trophies to the team, it is apparent that they are responsible for many missteps (e.g., departure of Epstein, Francona, Lester, Hazen, Sawdaye), yet there is little reported about these kinds fo mistakes in the press. I live in the Washington DC area and find this true of local ownership in all four of the major sports. Any thoughts?
Klaw: Media need for access colors all kind of commentary. But I think some ownership missteps have come under fire, like the fiasco in Arizona the last two years. A reader also pointed out how Moorad ran Hoyer and McLeod out of San Diego (and Jaron Madison too), and now those guys helped the Cubs win a ring. Angelos has gotten his share of criticism for protecting certain employees in baseball ops during GM changes. So there could be more criticism, but certainly some come out.

Eric: Call me a cynic, but am I the only one that finds it odd when people comment “We forgive you Bart man!” Shouldn’t it be Bartman doing the forgiving? He had to fear for his life for what is, at the end of the day, some silly sports thing.
Klaw: The fan and media reaction to and ongoing fascination with Bartman is disgusting.

Tye: What’s your favorite ESPN show to watch? (Not including Baseball Tonight or Sportscenter)
Klaw: Outside the Lines is the best show on ESPN.

Eddy: Were Xander’s 21 HR a natural progression for him? Is that his peak? 2016 seemed like a great eyar for him, but can he get better?
Klaw: I think he has 30+ potential.

Rich O: Do you see the Yankees and Tigers as a potential match for a JD Martinez trade?
Klaw: Again, I see no reason for the Yankees to acquire a corner bat, especially not a poor defender like JDM.

Dave: Are you or have you ever been a member of the band Arcade Fire?
Klaw: Let me check and get back to you.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Every World Series winner has clubs that try to copy something that they did unique to win. What do teams try to take from the Cubs championship?
Klaw: Get high draft picks, trade aggressively, and spend a few hundred million on long-term deals?

Mike: Now that the WS is over, will ESPN be publishing your top prospects for the 2017 draft soon ? Is Alex Toral a top 10 pick (despite the fact he’s a HS 1B only) ?
Klaw: Toral is not a top 10 pick or close to it. Last I heard, they’re going to run my free agent and trade-market preview content first, and then the draft rankings. I’m sorry for the delays but the schedule is not my decision.

Anthony: Last year in a chat you said regarding a potential move by the Rangers of Josh Morgan to catcher: “I love the idea. Could be a Russell Martin type back there.” Two follow-ups to that. One: why would Morgan be more valuable as a C than a middle infielder — just that you don’t think he can handle 2b or SS or something else? 2: This off-season there is renewed talk of trying Morgan at C, do you remain optimistic about Morgan, especially if he takes to such a change? Thanks!
Klaw: Morgan isn’t a SS, and replacement level at C is much lower than it is at 2b. I’d be very optimistic if they fully commit to the conversion now.

Pat D: If the Cubs had lost, ____% of the blame would have gone to Maddon, and ____% would have been justified?
Klaw: 100% and maybe 40%. I thought he made two clear mistakes: bringing in Chapman with a man on and having Baez bunt with two strikes. Those were indefensible. I thought pulling Hendricks for Lester was overreactive, but not absolutely a mistake – Hendricks isn’t really a 2 ERA guy and he’d already gone through the order twice (I think). The ump blowing the third strike call was the bigger mistake in that inning, and so was Ross making a late, errant throw to first on a ball he should have held.

Brian: What needs do the Indians have to address in the offseason to become contenders again?
Klaw: Get the rotation fully healthy, get Brantley healthy, determine who the CF will be going forward (can Naquin, who runs well but was awful in CF this year, become at least average?), maybe patch a little around the edges of the roster. I don’t think they’re really lacking anywhere.

Adam: Obviously the Braves are rebuilding the farm with arms, so what do you think of yesterday’s hires of Wallace and Chiti?
Klaw: Mixed feelings. Britton credits Wallace with helping make him a new Mariano Rivera, but the moves of Gausman around the rubber, the overuse of Bundy, monkeying with other deliveries … do I want that same guy around all those young Atlanta pitchers?

DC Deac: You were always pretty negative on Severino as an ace for the Yanks mostly due to mechanics. Did we see that this year or was this meltdown something different?
Klaw: I didn’t think he could hold up or have sufficient command to be a starter. That’s what happened this year. I’d leave him in the pen now, where I think he could be pretty electric.

Hinkie: Cameron Rupp, Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro … what do the Phillies do with these three guys next season?
Klaw: Marry, f… oh wait, wrong game. I’d play Rupp regularly and Knapp as the backup, Alfaro to AAA with some clear thresholds for him (that he understands) before he’s promoted. He has to work the count more, and he has to receive better.

Jesse: Baring any major acquisitions or subtractions and assuming Cespedes doesn’t return, how should mets best align their OF? I think Lagares should be playing everyday but not sure how they will make that work
Klaw: Conforto plays LF every day. Everything else comes after that.

Nelson: People sure like to forget that Bill Murray abused his wife for years
Klaw: His public image doesn’t line up well with stories people close to him tell about his temperament or his behavior. (Murray’s wife of about ten years accused him of abusing her and threatening to kill her; she withdrew the claims after their divorce settlement.)

Chris: Would you give Neil Walker a QO? I think I’d take it if I was him. Not sure of his market outside of NY with that balky back.
Klaw: Yes, and probably yes.

Nils: Hi Keith, does Blake Swihart still have a future as a C? Is he a change of scenery candidate?
Klaw: Yes, and probably yes.

DH: T/F: the best fit for Fowler this offseason is the Cardinals, and they will give him 4/64
Klaw: That’s a good call, actually. I don’t spend much time thinking about best fits, though.

Jeff Chisholm: I remember you recommending “The Fresh Beat Band” a while ago for family viewing. I just watched it with my daughter and can’t understand what you see in it. Can you explain? Maybe it was just a bad episode I saw
Klaw: I assume this is a joke, because I complained for years that it was one of the worst kids’ shows I’d ever seen. I had successfully forgotten about it until just now, so thanks for nothing.

ryan: everyone always says, ‘oh they’ll be back’ especially for whoever loses the WS – but if one of these two teams doesn’t make it back, which one is it more likely to be?
Klaw: Cleveland’s payroll limitations are a serious issue. They will never have the margin for error the Cubs had. It’s amazing that they made it to Game 7 despite losing two of their three best starters.

Ryan: I’m happy the cubs won at least so we can retire the idea that curses and voo doo magic are reasons that transcend team performance
Klaw: Yes, more of this superstition-killing, please.

Nate: Keith, if you were Rick Hahn, would you sell or attempt to buy/build around that core?
Klaw: Per above, I don’t think he could build a strong contender around the current core.

Matthew: If you were in Cleveland’s front office, would you consider shopping Andrew Miller this offseason?
Klaw: I’d take offers, with no clear incentive to trade him unless overwhelmed.

CarlC: I read that excellent Frey article you linked too. This may be a 30 year old argument, but Im guessing male media members would never be allowed in a WNBA locker room, right?
Klaw: I’m almost certain that they are.

JMD: What should the mets do at C? d’arnaud seems like he isn’t durable enough and hasn’t produced when he’s played. Plawecki hasn’t made much impression. Should they go external? Weiters?
Klaw: I’d play Plawecki and tell the manager to stop fucking running down his players to the media (which he did to Plawecki in May).

Nick: If there ends up being an International Draft, do you think the the current J2 rules will apply in terms of eligibility or will rules more akin to the Rule 4 Drafr apply? If the latter, this poses an interesting predicatment for 15/16 year old int’l players.
Klaw: I can’t imagine MLB forcing those kids to wait till age 17/18. It’s not like Dominican kids are finishing high school. I’d really object to any rule of the sort that clearly hurts the kids.

Ryan: Keith, What should I say to people who say pitchers should not be able to win the MVP because “they have their own award”?
Klaw: I say read the MVP rules, genius.

Fear: Are you afraid of what will happen post-election, regardless of who wins? I have this great fear (I think justified) that if Trump loses, some of his supporters will go on violent rampages, believing that the election was rigged and they need to get justice their own way.
Klaw: Yes, I am fearful both ways. I’m generally fearful that Trump’s bogus claims of rigging and voter fraud have eroded some faith in our democracy, period, at least in the portions of the country where he has the most support. And I’m disgusted with the media for covering his claims without anywhere near sufficient skepticism.

Andy: It’s a shame that David Ross’s clubhouse leadership disappeared in 2014 in Boston. Luckily it reappeared in the last couple years when he was surrounded by some really good teammates. Perhaps good clubhouse leadership is really about being a solid backup catcher. Or in the case of last year, his leadership lead to the Cubs trading away Wellington Castillo for basically nothing.
Klaw: Grey hair in the beard helps too. In which case my clubhouse leadership skills have advanced substantially in the last year.

Ron: Any thoughts on your alma mater’s decision to cancel the soccer season?
Klaw: I support Harvard’s decision 100% and I’m proud of them for doing the right thing. Would that Baylor had done the same with football.

Albert: Keith, have you seen the Real Sports piece about balls and strikes being called by a computer and relayed to the umpire? I’d like to see that happen. Your thoughts? Also, if you’re thinking about binge watching a TV show Silicon Valley is genius. I think you’d enjoy it.
Klaw: That piece used raw data that had not been checked and cleaned for reliability (e.g., throwing out bad readings by the system, which unfortunately do occur), and so the results weren’t valid. I agree on moving towards computerized ball/strike calls, as most of you know, but that study didn’t present the right conclusions.

Aaron: You were fairly critical of the Reds’ haul in the Cueto trade. Does their trade of Lamb for just cash give further credence to your initial assessment?
Klaw: Well, he was probably the third of three pieces, so I don’t know that I’d say this changes much. Reed should be a lot better than he showed in 2016 – that has been the big shock to me.

Scrapper: What do you expect next season from Alex Bregman?
Klaw: Makes the All-Star team.

Drew: Knowing that ridiculing someone’s stance only entrenches them further into their position, regardless how illogical it might be, how do you balance the choice of trying to change minds as opposed to saying “Eff it, you deserved be be ostracized”
Klaw: I know this is probably about the election, but i compare it to vaccine deniers. If you don’t want to vaccinate your kids, well, fine, but they can’t come to public schools, and we’re not interacting with you in any way. We have to make the cost of denial high enough that more people choose to comply with public health rules.

John: There is some sort of irony to all the criticism of how crooked Hillary is. Due to numerous, often times partisan rather than legitimate, investigations, and the hacks you are as close to absolute transparency as you can get. And what did we find, she does things any typical politician does, some of which are morally questionable, but don’t cross the line to illegality. Whereas Trump is the least transparent candidate ever, is under investigation for criminal fraud, and reporters have raised numerous questions on what appear to be numerous explicit violations of charity law by his personal charity, which has already lead to a cease and desist soliciting donations order from the NY dept. that monitors charities, not to mention the stiffing of numerous vendors for over 30 years. Yet she is the crooked one.
Klaw: I agree with this completely. And I’ve never defended Hillary as particularly moral, ethical, or ‘clean’ compared to other politicians. But she’s not a virulent racist, or misogynist, not dog-whistling white supremacists, not talking about using nuclear weapons, and not proposing tax-code changes to benefit the highest income brackets.

Doug: What’s a good game that a 5 year old, a 7 year old, and a 9 year old can all play?
Klaw: Ticket to Ride. You’ll have to help the 5-year-old a little bit.

Scrapper: A pitcher has ___________ control on balls in play.
Klaw: A little bit of.

Rick: I disagreed whole-heartedly with Maddon’s decision to use Chapman when he did in Game 6. Chapman’s rarely been worked hard as a reliever, and always got plenty of rest in Cincinnati. Pitching 2 games in a row was common, but never for more than 3 outs at a time, and his stamina issues on the rare occasion that he was worked hard, were usually easy to recognize. I think his struggles in Game 7 were totally foreseeable and Maddon is lucky that Cleveland didn’t finish it in the 9th.
Klaw: I disagree a bit with your logic here. I think Chapman’s problems were more related to having the man on base, which is when he throws almost exclusively fastballs, than to fatigue, since in the 9th he looked like his normal self.

Zac: You know, it’s people like Nelson that fuck everything up. Just because someone is accused of something, does not mean they are guilty.
Klaw: And an acquittal doesn’t make them innocent (O.J. Simpson comes to mind). Hillary and Trump have both been accused of a lot of things. It’s up to us as individuals to determine which claims appear to have merit and then which of those actually matter.

Xolo: What’s your take on the Selig Rule? The runners up in Arizona were reportedly Cora and Wakamatsu, who are both POC, while the job went to Lovullo, who’s not.
Klaw: Lovullo has a good resume for that job, so I’m not really concerned about that specific hire, as opposed to, say, Milwaukee hiring Counsell or Minnesota hiring Molitor, who were completely unqualified for the role.

Michael: You criticize Gary Johnson a lot for his stance on the government role’s in slowing down climate change. I’m wondering if you could provide some concrete steps the government actually could take without threatening the economy too much. The federal government’s record in subsidizing green companies has not been good.
Klaw: Subsidizing green companies is less promising than subsidizing certain consumer behaviors, such as working with electric utilities to educate consumers on wasting power at home, raising fuel-economy standards in a meaningful fashion, subsidizing solar panel installations in areas where sunlight is copious (and then forcing states to allow negative metering – vote no on 1 if you live in Florida!), and fighting global deforestation. I agree that some proposals would threaten economic growth, but I’m more concerned about proposals (like higher gas taxes) that would have a regressive effect. If you ask me to pay an extra $1 per gallon of gas next year, it’s not going to affect me much at all: I drive a hybrid, so I don’t use a ton of gas, and I make enough money that this will not dramatically affect my purchasing decisions. But to a household making $25K a year, the same tax would have a huge impact.

Anonymous: Playing time aside, what do you see in the cards for Soler’s future development?
Klaw: If he gets regular playing time next year and stays healthy, I think he takes a big leap forward.

Tyrone: With election day coming, do you think America, and Black America, are better off than it was 8 years ago?
Klaw: Yes. I think there is quite a bit of hard data to support this, including the halving of the unemployment rate and real income growth for about 3/5 of the workforce. We’ve also seen some civil rights advances (gay marriage for one) in the interim. But we could lose all of those gains with a Trump win.

Aaron C.: Making blackened salmon tacos with a tomatillo salsa for dinner tonight. Would appreciate an appropriate beer pairing, klaw.
Klaw: Evolution Lot #9.

Chip: Is Ona an elite prospect? Heard he’s looked good but not amazing in instructs.
Klaw: I don’t think he was ever elite, just a solid prospect who was paid more because he was a Cuban FA.

Jake: Do you think Alex Cora is well on his way to becoming a manager eventually or does he still face some prejudicial barriers?
Klaw: I think he’ll get there. The AZ interview was a good step. Colorado is nuts if they don’t interview him.

Daniel: Why is going through lineup 3-4 times in a game bad and starting 2-3 times against a team in playoffs OK? thanks
Klaw: Fatigue.

John: The male reporters in women’s locker room issue is a myth. The WNBA operates under the exact same rules as the NBA for locker room access, the NCAA basketball tournaments operate under the same rules.
Klaw: Yep. And if a male reporter misbehaved in a women’s locker room, I don’t think he’d be employed for 24 hours beyond that.

Todd: Any predictions about the mechanics of an international draft? Number of rounds? How deep does slotting go before capping a given team’s bonus pool? Other pertinent points to consider?
Klaw: I’m guessing it’ll be short. You just need a few rounds to take care of the elite guys, the $500K and up types, and then you let teams sign anyone they want for $300K and under or so after that.

Pat D: So who is your favorite Homestar Runner character? I say “is” because I refuse to think of it as a thing of the past, and I’m not just going to assume it’s either the two-bit wrestle-man or his yellow dog.
Klaw: Homsar’s almost-sane ramblings were always my favorite. “I was raised by a cup of coffee!”

Ben: I know you raved about Travis Demeritte’s defense. But if he can hit .240 in the big leagues with 25+ homers and elite defense, isn’t that still a pretty valuable player?
Klaw: If he posts a .300 OBP, it is. If he posts a .270 OBP, it isn’t.

Frank W.: I got my daughter into Baseball because I love the sport and never really understood why so many girls seem to be forced into playing Softball. With shows like Pitch and the success of players like Chelsea Baker and the push of women’s baseball by boosters like Justine Siegal and her Baseball For All group, do you think there will be women playing professional baseball in the near future?
Klaw: I think it’s a very long way off. The Sonoma Stompers thing was a nice story, but there’s no evidence to say those women could have held their own even in rookie ball. If I saw a high school girl playing baseball who had the abilities of a male prospect, I’d back her completely, but I don’t think this girl exists yet.

Andy: This election, I’m a one issue voter. Which side does the KKK advocate for and support wholeheartedly? Yeah, I’ll pick the other side, thanks.
Klaw: I’m waiting for the Aryan Nations to weigh in.

Joe: Was it just my imagination, or was the strike zone really bad in the World Series? Hard to believe that guys like Joe West get to call the World Series. Hirschbeck was terrible too–was that just a retirement present for him?
Klaw: Game 7’s was particularly horrendous.

Marshall MN: Do you think the addition of Thad Levine to the Twins front office was a good one?
Klaw: I think this is more of the same. Falvey hired someone a lot like him, and the two of them combined have no field or scouting experience. I would have preferred to see Falvey hire someone more complementary, and to at least consider a minority candidate.

Robert: Personally, I don’t take much issue at all with Hillary’s behavior, when taken in the context of what exactly she does for a living. Reprehensible as some of her conduct may be, in the words of our old friend Omar LIttle, it’s all in the game.
Klaw: I’d put it this way: The system is rigged in one very real sense, in that it highly favors the type of career politicians that it tends to produce as major-party candidates. I also think that is part of the appeal of Trump to the people who are willing to overlook the bigotry, the race-baiting, the genital-grabbing, the promises to defund Planned Parenthood and build a wall and stop any Muslims from entering the country.

JWR: Maybe it’s personal preference but baseball games have gotten too long for my tastes and I would prefer a pitch. clock that forces pitchers to use 3-5 seconds less per pitch. And I’d ban Pedro Baez from pitching. Where do you stand on pitch clocks?
Klaw: Pitch clocks make the game move faster and also force pitchers to take less time to recover between pitches. They’re a mixed bag.

Matt: I’d wager to say depending on a dying industry (coal) is far more damaging to the economy than a shift towards green energy.
Klaw: Or petroleum. It’s not clean, and the supply can only decrease.

Drew: Piggybacking off of your spot-on point about Molitor and Counsell, Is there any recent managerial hire more egregious than Matt Williams? Giving that dude reign of the 2014 Nats was about as wise as giving your 16-year old keys to a Porsche.
Klaw: Yep. And when they won that first year he was there, suddenly he was praised as a brilliant manager, when in fact he was the idiot farmer’s son whose shovel happened to strike oil.

STEVE: Should Trout win the MVP?
Klaw: Yes, but I doubt he will.

Marshall MN: The thing about the fervent libertarians and Gary Johnson supporters that I find ironic is that the political free market has spoken and those libertarians ideas just aren’t popular. Obviously that doesn’t preclude them from continuing to make their case, but if libertarian ideas were the solution that they all seem to think they are, then someone from that party would have won an election at some point.
Klaw: I think most people who self-identify as ‘libertarian’ haven’t read either the party’s platform or what true libertarianism entails. The idea that the government should provide very few if any public services would come as a real shock to people who depend on things like interstate highways or a standing army for their life and livelihoods.

Bob: After watching the WS, my wife decided that Kris Bryant is dreamy. Should I be worried?
Klaw: He is dreamy. Have you seen those blue eyes?

JimmyB: Keith. Thanks for everything you do. I, like you, am a huge Parks & Rec fan. However, one question has been bothering me considerably – if Ron is such an ardent Libertarian, why would he ever accept a job in local government? On my third watch through of the series, and I can’t get over this issue…
Klaw: He answers that question in one episode.

Jeffrey: What’s your opinion on divulging the toxicology report for Fernandez?
Klaw: I don’t think they had a choice, did they? But I think we all knew this was a likely outcome. Also, I saw one of those “Recommended for You” ads today using his face and saying “Jose Fernandez’s net worth blew us away.” To whoever designed that ad and placed it, go fuck yourselves and I hope you rot in hell.

Jason: I’m not surprised by the fact that many “fans” disagree with some of your opinions, but I’m often surprised by their vitriol. How do you deal with the stream of vitriol, even if it is coming from a relatively small percent of readers?
Klaw: I block and mute a lot. I even got threats on Wednesday night from Cubs fans mad I said I didn’t want to see Chapman again. A lot of cowards find courage when they’re behind a screen.

Thomas Willard: Do you think Kopech has a #1 ceiling? Possibly called up late next year?
Klaw: Absolutely #1 ceiling, almost no chance he’s called up next year.

Lance: The problem with Washington is that it produces people like Evan Bayh. He was once highly regarded, but was really just looking for a way to stuff his pockets. The partisan nature of politics means no Dems call him out. Just as Republicans wouldn’t. Fortunately, it looks like he may lose.
Klaw: Yes, and to be clear, I don’t think this kind of venal behavior is limited to any particular party or ideology. Our system of government and the laws around gifts, donations, and lobbying make corruption pretty easy.

JJ: Are there teams out there that just flat out won’t consider Chapman because of the domestic abuse? Or does that have a short shelf-life in the MLB?
Klaw: Yes, there are such teams, and good for them, but I think if any executive said so he might face trouble from the union.

Rob: With Schwarber, Zobrist, Heyward, Soler, Almora and Fowler (maybe); what would you do with the Cubs’ outfield?
Klaw: I don’t know if you can pencil in Schwarber for 150 starts in left field, but I’d probably figure him in left, Heyward in center, Soler in right, Zobrist filling in at second and in both corners. Leaves Almora on the outside, which is a shame as I think he’s someone’s every day CF.

Andrew: So everyone was claiming we entered a new age of bullpen usage this postseason….then everyone ran out of gas. Are we going to see any meaningful change in the future in how these arms are used in the regular season? Seems to me that if you can train MIller to be that type of pitcher all year, you can.
Klaw: If teams want to use relievers like that in the regular season, then those teams will have to get used to those relievers appearing in 45 games, not 60. More pitches per appearance should mean more days of rest. Otherwise I don’t think it works.

Winston: Do you think draft picks will be trade-able in the next CBA?
Klaw: No, but I hold out hope I’m wrong.

Joeybats32: Still surprised Giants gave up Phil Bickford for a mere bullpen arm and Lucious Fox in the Moore/Duffy trade. Was this the “cost of doing business” or did the Giants quickly learn that neither is as good as they thought? If the latter, what does that say about the Giants scouting department . . . ?
Klaw: Bickford was never good enough to be drafted that high, and then he got worse in pro ball.

JG: Were you encouraged by Buxton’s better late season stats?
Klaw: Encouraged, yes, but aware that it’s a small sample in September and far from conclusive.

CK: Do you ever recall a player who suddenly lost it to the extent Jason Heyward did this year? I honestly felt sorry for him, to the extent you can for a guy who makes that much money playing baseball and who was in the process of winning a World Series (the way he handled it seemed pretty admirable, I must say). What are the chances he never gets back close to what he was?
Klaw: Mike Lowell. He recovered.

Jesse B: Is Rhys Hoskins the Phillies longterm answer at 1B?
Klaw: I think he is.

Todd: Your next chat, who’s the President Elect?
Klaw: I sincerely hope it’s Hillary Clinton. I believe Trump would be a disaster for our economy, for civil rights, for our foreign relations, for trade, for global peace, and for women’s rights. Whether you like Hillary is beside the point; we will get one of these two people as our next President, and her policies are far superior to Trump’s, in detail, in realism, and in potential effect. If Trump wins, we will see our rights erode, employment and income decline, and global instability increase. That is not the America – or the world – I want for myself or for my child. I hope you will join me in voting for Hillary on Tuesday, and sending a clear message to the Republican Party that we reject everything that Trump and his followers stand for.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat – I’ll be back next Thursday. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading.

Comments

  1. It looks like the Cardinals picked up Jaime Garcia’s 2017 option for the sole purpose of trading him. What kind of prospect might he fetch? Anything more than a low-level lottery ticket?

  2. So Marshall MN’s question was basically just an argumentum ad populum and Keith’s response was kind of a straw man. There aren’t any reasonable libertarians who argue the government shouldn’t provide substantial funding for roads, the military, police, or courts.

    • Libertarianism includes isolationism, which perforce means a smaller military. True economic libertarianism would also include use taxes, so roads would be funded by those who use them. But if you don’t like those examples, pick another handful of public goods that you think fit better. My point is that many people who think they’re “libertarians” would pull up short of endorsing a truly libertarian policy on domestic spending.

  3. To Max, anyone who would choose to vote for someone out of spite, because they are annoyed at what some people posted on the internet, is a complete and total moron

  4. Keith, Evolution makes Lot #3 (IPA) and Lot #6 (Double IPA). I don’t think Lot #9 exists, though I would like to try it if it did.

  5. Bourdain says all you craft-beer pairing nutjobs can go spit. Thoughts?

  6. RE: Pitch clocks, Anecdotally, it seems like a lot of the better pitchers “work quickly.” Does anyone know if there any data out there suggesting that a shorter time between pitches is correlated in any way with success or a lack thereof?

    I could see it working either way, for reasons not limited to: Shorter times between pitches can keep you focused, and maybe help repeat mechanics, or the argument that “keeps the defense awake.” Longer times might allow for recovery between pitches, as Keith said, and allow the pitcher to be as comfortable/prepared as possible before making the next pitch, or maybe take the batter out of his comfort zone? I dunno. It also might just be that pitchers work at whatever pace is natural and deviating from that might be what leads to poorer performance.

    • The fatigue issue is injury. If pitchers pitch faster, their muscles are losing recovery time between pitches, and the risk of injury increases.

  7. Matt in Portland

    Keith, would you still feel the same way about Baylor canceling football if it meant they also had to cancel all of their other non-revenue generating intercollegiate sports? Major college football programs are hypocritical on many levels, but the fact of the matter is that they pay the bills and allow most of the other school’s sports to exist. As someone who played baseball at a public university, it was never a fact lost on us that our sport lost a lot of money and the football team made what we did possible.

    • That’s the point, though: Kill the revenue, not the costs. The NCAA could have forced Baylor to cancel the football season but prohibited them from canceling other sports. That would be a penalty no one would soon forget.

  8. Revenue from football supplements the other sports smart guy. They would not exist without. It is basic math. Your last paragraph of chat is an absolute disgrace. DT is awful as well as HC. For a self proclaimed know it all, you should be embarrassed and ashamed for promoting such an awful human being/person. Looking forward to hearing your excuses when she turns out to be as awful a president that we have seen.

    • Junior: Do you believe that a university literally has no other source of money than its football team? Or do you not understand that the point of a PENALTY is to force the spending of money that the university would rather not spend? I just want to be clear on exactly where your “smarts” have let you down.

      And apparently, like so many of the trolls on this site, your reading comprehension is not so great. Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton is going to be the President of the United States. If you believe one of those candidates is 100% awful and the other is 30% awful, then you still have a clear-cut correct choice. Voting for the 30% awful candidate, and pointing out that 30% awful is way better than 100% awful, is not the same thing as celebrating the 30% awful candidate.

    • Revenue from football supplements the other sports smart guy. They would not exist without. It is basic math.

      As CB just pointed out, not-so-smart guy, this is wrong. Colleges generate revenue from other sources, like, say, tuition.

    • “Revenue from football supplements the other sports smart guy. ”

      I would like see this proven by the schools before people state it as fact. If it were the case, why aren’t power five D1 schools offering more and more varsity sports? With the new tv contracts, they are making far more money then ever before. There aren’t too many sports where you couldn’t offer both a men’s and women’s version, so Title IX isn’t a concern. Instead, it seems these football and men’s basketball programs are keeping the money to themselves by building new or completely renovated stadiums and arenas. Plus the money the coaching staff of the programs and athletic department administrators are making.

      There is also this fact. My dad played football at a power five D1 school. I went to a D3 liberal arts school. The athletic department at my alma mater offers exactly one less varsity sport than my dad’s alma mater. D3 schools aren’t making much revenue from sports, so football isn’t supporting the other sports. What is the more likely explanation is that the school earmarks a certain amount of money for each sport, like it would clubs. Sometimes the teams themselves have to supplement the money by having car washes, raffles, and candy sales.

  9. Keith, you can’t tell someone to rot in hell. There is absolutely no scientific evidence of hell. Don’t be a science denier.

  10. So then following this argument to its logical conclusion, you would be ok with tuition being raised, or faculty salaries (or academics) cut in order to fund the other sports programs with football cancelled? The money has to come from somewhere…id like to know where you suggest it comes from.

    • This is not the logical conclusion of his argument.

      I take it you have relatively little experience with how universities operate. Their budgets are massive, and include money that is set aside for unexpected expenses, like lawsuits, or some sort of physical damage to campus, or whatever. They also have endowments available for the same purpose, if necessary. Baylor’s current endowment, for example, is $1.168 billion. Finally, the chancellor/president/provost generally has a seven-figure discretionary fund that can be used for such purposes as well (though it’s more commonly used to promote the university in various ways).

      Meanwhile, football teams may generate a lot of revenue, but much of that revenue goes into operating the football team (coaches’ salaries, food for players, travel costs, stadium maintenance). If a season were canceled, it would create a shortfall, but the shortfall would be on the order of $5-$10 million. Between emergency/discretionary funds, and the billion-dollar endowment, they could easily come up with that money.

      Oh, by the way, faculty salaries are a contractual obligation and can’t be cut, any more than the university can unilaterally announce that they will be paying less for electricity or Internet service or food for the campus dorms.

    • The athletic departments at large universities are like bloated charities. They will figure out a way to spend whatever you give it. They aren’t trying to maximize profit and trying to keep costs down. They are just trying to keep bringing in as much revenue as possible so they can spend more. Sports can be cut for any number of reasons, but it is usually because they are too expensive to operate, not because of a shortfall in revenue from a revenue producing sport. For example, each sport may get $100,000 a year from the school and any other costs must come from other means (donations, car washes, sponsors, charging for admission to games, etc). Some sports simply don’t need a lot more money to operate, with cross country being an example. Some sports do need a lot more to operate, with ice hockey being an example. Why does Arizona State all the sudden have a varsity ice hockey team? Because rich donors donated $30 million to ASU so the school could offer the sport. It wasn’t because the athletic department finally found enough leftover revenue from football to sponsor the sport.

  11. I really cannot wait for this election to be over, if for no other reason than it will (hopefully) mean an end to all the folks who completely overreact to any political commentary espoused by Keith. Some of the reactions are just head-thumpingly over the top…

  12. One of the issues I think people overlook – or perhaps don’t understand – is that most big college sports (especially football) are money-losers, or at best, break-even. So the issue isn’t revenue, it’s profit. If a college spends generates $10M in college football revenue but spends $11 million to run that program, it’s actually to everyone’s benefit (financially) to end the program. (Let’s not go down that path of trying to place economic benefits on the intrinsic marketing value to the college’s brand.) The only person badly hurt by that decision is the overpaid head coach, and I have a feeling he’ll survive, especially in colleges where they write employment contracts to protect the poor, under appreciated head coach with a nice golden parachute.

    • You’re right, to an extent, but the biggest programs do turn a profit. For example, UCLA (my institution) pulled in about $25 million profit last year across the whole athletic department (mostly football and basketball, obviously). Since it’s a public institution, they can neither hide those figures nor fudge them.

      I think it’s generally understood that about 40 schools (mostly from the five power conferences) are making money, another 20 or so are breaking even, and the rest are in the red on sports.

    • This brings in what benefits sports, and probably all cultural things, bring a city. Beyond direct economic impact, what value are the Cubs bringing Chicago right now? Between a team with a large following in a large metropolitan area, a team that had a long period between championships, and everything else, it is probably the maximum value one team can give a city. I was down in Wrigleyville yesterday after the parade left, and there were still thousands of people walking around with huge smiles on their faces. So when cities decide to help construct new facilities, they should never be more than what Cubs are giving Chicago right now. I’ve always felt government should do things to enrich it’s citizens lives, even if it is a small money loser. But the key word is small. It isn’t hundreds of millions of dollars.

      Bringing this back to college sports, successful athletic departments do help the school in other ways. After Matt Stafford went to the University of Georgia from the Dallas area, the university saw a huge increase in applications from the Dallas area. Even on a smaller scale, having sports teams brings athletes that wouldn’t have otherwise considered the school. I do know of one friend’s kid who went to a D3 school specifically to play baseball. He is paying close to full price and that is probably the case for most of the team. So if athletics is a small money loser, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The key word, again, is small.

  13. Marshall MN

    Well personally I have a lot of trouble understanding why college sports even exist in the first place (outside of intramurals, which are entertainment for anyone in the student body to participate in) . They are not an inherent part of the mission of colleges, and though I enjoy some college sports I honestly think that they should go away as they are generally a pretty big money drain on the colleges, with a few exceptions of course. This is different than professional sports of course, as they exist for the purpose of making money via their product.

  14. Thanks, Keith! Your work and newsletter are awesome