Cleveland’s system is loaded with position-player talent, mostly up the middle (including enough shortstops to field an entire team of only shortstops, which would be some sort of record), as well as some intriguing power bats on the corners, but their pipeline of pitching is about to hit a dry patch, as after Triston McKenzie they probably don’t have another starter prospect above A-ball for this year.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means he may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Triston McKenzie, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 12)
From the Top 100: McKenzie was absolutely electric in his major-league debut in August, showing exceptional command of the best stuff he’d ever shown, but his velocity tapered off in subsequent starts and Cleveland eventually began to limit his workload after one outing where his average fastball velo dipped from 93-97 mph in that first game to an average of 90.7 mph. McKenzie gets great extension out over his front side, peaking at 7.4 feet in 2020, giving hitters less time to react and improving his deception, all of which allows him to succeed even if he isn’t sitting at the velocity he showed in his first outing. His changeup doesn’t have much action, and it was better in that first outing when his velocity was up and he could get more separation between the change and the fastball; after that, his slider was his best weapon, with a 20 percent whiff rate on the year, thanks again to how far he extends out front. The entire question about McKenzie’s future revolves around his durability. While I don’t believe his MLB.com listing at 6-foot-5, 165 pounds, he is not and never will be a big guy, given his narrow frame and a metabolism so fast it could do the Kessel run in under 12 parsecs. Maybe he’s a Blake Snell type of starter, limited to 5-6 innings per outing but incredibly effective when he pitches; but I’ll hold out some hope that he eventually fills out and becomes durable enough to pitch at the top of a rotation.
2. Bo Naylor, C (Top 100 rank: No. 42)
From the Top 100: Naylor continues to make great progress behind the plate, to the point now where he’s not just likely to stay there but has a chance to end up a plus defender with the glove and arm, a testament to his athleticism and his work ethic. Naylor was the 29th overall pick in 2018, following in the footsteps of his brother and fellow first-round pick Josh, but was more of an infielder who’d tried catching rather than a polished backstop — and maybe that’s good, considering the poor track record of high school catchers who were drafted in the first round. He’s an above-average runner with good bat speed, making contact at a rate above league average in Low A in 2019, even though he was young for the level at 19 years old. His results on balls in play were just fair, however, with more power but a lower BABIP than I would have forecast. He’s going to catch, and there’s a lot of untapped potential in the bat, enough that he could leap into the top echelon of prospects with a strong year at the plate in High A or Double A in 2021.
3. George Valera, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 76)
From the Top 100: Valera missed most of 2018 with a broken hamate bone in his hand and didn’t seem completely recovered when he returned to play the following summer, although he was also very young for the New York-Penn League (may it rest in peace) and still showed great promise in the power department. Valera was healthy for all of 2020 and even came to Cleveland’s alternate site as a 19-year-old, then showed off in instructional league with a beautiful swing that produced hard contact and plus-plus power. He can really hit a fastball already but tends to chase stuff out of the zone too often, something that may improve as he’s facing more pitchers who are around the plate and he gets more pitches he can square up. On defense, he’s adequate in a corner, but could get to above-average with the right instruction. He’s a flashy player, but that’s great if you can bring it, which Valera certainly can, with 30-homer upside and the potential to hit for a high average even if he continues to swing and miss.
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4. Tyler Freeman, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 78)
From the Top 100: Freeman has filled out some more since we last saw him in games, which does help address one of the biggest concerns about him as a hitter — whether he’d be strong enough to keep hitting the ball hard and thus hold up his consistently strong batting averages. Freeman rarely strikes out, with just 87 strikeouts so far in 997 pro plate appearances, and is a solid-average to tick above-average runner who plays a competent shortstop but will probably end up at second base, especially in a system with so many superior defenders at short. Everything Freeman does plays up because he shows such good instincts and feel for the game, earning the dreaded “ballplayer” tag from scouts and coaches (as if the other kids on the field are not also ballplayers, which would create a substantial ontological dilemma for those of us who evaluate the sport for a living). I don’t think this swing is going to generate power, but he looks like he’ll hit .300+ consistently with solid OBPs, average defense at short or plus defense at second, and a little added value on the bases as well.
5. Nolan Jones, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 86)
From the Top 100: Jones looks like a good three true outcomes hitter in the making, running deep counts already with high walk totals (96 in 2019), showing some power now but with much more projected now that he’s 22 and filling out physically. He doesn’t show much of a two-strike approach, keeping the same swing even when behind in the count, relying more on his strong ball/strike recognition to allow him to get to something he thinks he can drive. Jones’ main concern is that he doesn’t hit left-handed pitching at all; across 2018 and 2019, he had 250 PA against lefties, and hit just .167/.316/.286 with a 36 percent strikeout rate. That can improve, but it hasn’t yet, and he was worse in 2019 than 2018. He’s the kind of player who will probably be more hurt by the lost year in 2020, because this will only get better with more repetitions against the very pitchers he can’t hit. There’s also some concern that he won’t stay at third base, potentially ending up in right field, although that’s likely to be more driven by who’s ahead of him (e.g., José Ramírez) than by his defense, as he can play a capable hot corner already. At third base, with the 25-homer power I expect from him and high walk totals, he’d be an above-average regular — but he has to start to hit lefties in the next year or two to keep that ceiling in play.
6. Brayan Rocchio, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 99)
From the Top 100: Rocchio is on the smaller side, but he does just about everything well and gets some comparisons to Francisco Lindor, although Lindor was a more polished hitter at 20 than Rocchio is. Rocchio has a very good eye at the plate and above-average speed on the bases, giving him a good chance to stay at shortstop in the long term. He’s a switch-hitter, with a slightly better swing from the left side, staying back on the ball more than he does when hitting right-handed, although both swings are very direct to the ball. He just may hit for some power left-handed because he rotates more and transfers his weight more with contact. Rocchio was unable to come from his native Venezuela to the U.S. in 2020 due to the pandemic, so unfortunately he’s missed even more time than most prospects, so he may be a year behind some of his short-season teammates from last year, but he still above-average or better upside as a high-OBP shortstop who might get to 15 homers or more.
7. Gabriel Arias, SS (Just Missed)
From the Just Missed: Arias is a plus defender at short, with a plus arm, and runs really well, but he still has to prove that he can hit to project as any sort of regular, even with the high bar provided by his defense. His plate discipline isn’t very good, and he’s been through multiple iterations of his swing already, even though he won’t turn 21 until late February. His age works in his favor in that it gives him more time to figure various things out, but scouts aren’t optimistic that his current swing and approach will work.
8. Lenny Torres, RHP
Torres missed 2019 after Tommy John surgery but has been electric in his return, and among Cleveland’s low-minors pitching prospects he has the best delivery and best chance to start. He’s worked in the mid-90s with enough feel for a curveball and changeup to think both can become above-average pitches once he gets more experience.
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9. Daniel Espino, RHP
Espino was Cleveland’s first-rounder in 2019 and has shown electric stuff, up to 99 mph with two potentially plus secondary pitches, when he’s been healthy. He missed instructs this fall with a sore shoulder, and his delivery has a lot of effort to it, enough that many scouts felt he couldn’t hold up as a starter over the long term.
10. Ethan Hankins, RHP
Hankins was the team’s first-rounder in 2018, and he had a sore shoulder that spring, also a possible consequence of a delivery issue — in this case, a short stride, which also hurts Hankins’ breaking ball. He’s worked on his conditioning during the shutdown and can still show premium velocity, with a better curveball than he had in high school, but he has to show health and improved command in 2021.
11. Jose Tena, SS
Tena has electric bat speed and so far has produced enough quality contact to keep his averages over .300 in complex ball even though he strikes out a little more than you’d like. He’s a plus-plus athlete and 60 runner with great actions for a shortstop, lacking only the arm you want at that position.
12. Aaron Bracho, 2B
Bracho can hit, maybe really hit, and the only real question is whether that will also lead to enough power to make him a regular — maybe an above-average one — at second base. He started at shortstop but was never going to stay there, and the surfeit of shortstops in this system just made him move to the other side of the bag that much sooner. I buy this bat, though, and even though he’s a little undersized, he’s strong for his height and may surprise us all in a few years with his homer totals.
13. Angel Martinez, SS
Martinez has passed some of the other shortstop prospects in Cleveland’s low minors because he’s more physically ready and has a more advanced approach at the plate. Martinez is a switch-hitter with a contact-oriented swing, not getting to power because he opens his front hip so early, and has shown good ball/strike recognition at a very young age. He’s a more instinctive shortstop than a flashy or athletic one, like former Cleveland prospect Willi Castro, and could end up at second base.
14. Gabriel Rodriguez, SS
Rodriguez got a club-record $2.1 million as an international free agent in 2018, in large part because of his promise at the plate. He has a really good swing with strong hands and bat control, although he glides out over his front side a little bit, which could cut into his power. He’s still playing shortstop even though he’s put on about 15 pounds of good weight since signing; other players in this system could push him to second or third over time.
15. Tanner Burns, RHP
Burns was Cleveland’s second overall pick in 2020, going in the supplemental round, after two years as Auburn’s Friday night starter, where he was up to 97 mph with a solid-average slider and changeup as well as average control. If he holds up — he had some minor shoulder soreness in college, and he’s a 6-foot right-hander with some effort — he’s a possible fourth starter.
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16. Carson Tucker, SS
Cleveland’s first-rounder in 2020 was a reach for me, as it took Carson Tucker, younger brother of Pirates outfielder Cole, both strong makeup guys with baseball intelligence ahead of their tools. Carson is a steady defender at short who might work his way to average at the position, while at the plate he shows quick hands and a slashing stroke that should lead to contact without power. He might be a soft regular at short but has to make higher-quality contact to be a regular elsewhere.
17. Owen Miller, SS
Miller came to Cleveland in the giant trade that sent Mike Clevinger to San Diego. He’s a high-floor infield prospect, a potential regular at second base given his strong contact rates, with a good chance he’s a quality utility infielder who can play shortstop on a temporary basis. If he finds a way to get to some power, he could become more.
18. Isaiah Greene, OF
Greene was one of the two prospects Cleveland received in return for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, just a few months after the Mets took him in the second round of the 2020 draft. He’s a plus runner and potential plus defender in center, showing very quick hands at the plate and comfort hitting against much older pitchers in instructs this past fall. He has yet to play anywhere in pro ball but has upside beyond the typical second-round pick.
19. Junior Sanquintin, SS/3B
Sanquintin has played all over the infield for Cleveland, probably settling in at third base or maybe second. He was more physically developed than some of the other international signees who came over at the same time and looks like he’s got more growth ahead of him, with a swing that should lead to above-average power down the road.
20. Carlos Vargas, RHP
Cleveland added Vargas to its 40-man this winter, as he’s been up to 98 mph and can show a plus slider. He looks like he should have better command than he does and needs a better third pitch to start.
Others of note
Hunter Gaddis was a sinker/slider guy out of college but can show four pitches now, sitting 93-94 mph with a four-seamer, and has a chance to be a back-end starter. … Josh Wolf came with Greene in the Lindor trade; he’s a projectable high school right-hander with good arm speed and sound delivery, needing to work on secondary stuff, command and the other elements of pitching. … Bobby Bradley will turn 25 in May and might get one more shot in Cleveland to prove he can make enough contact to get to his power. He struck out in over a third of his PA between Triple A and the majors in 2019, and didn’t get a call-up in 2020. … Lefty Sam Hentges should get some starts for Cleveland in 2021; he’s huge, up to 95 mph, with some depth on a curveball, but he didn’t come close to average command in Double A. … Outfielder Daniel Johnson got a cup of coffee last season, with 12 PA, all against right-handed pitchers; he could be a platoon outfielder or extra guy, with interesting power/speed from the left side but not enough pitch recognition to get to everyday status. … Right-hander Emmanuel Clase, acquired in the Corey Kluber trade, missed all of 2020 due to a suspension for a positive PED test result; he was up to 101 mph with cutting action and had a slider up to 90 mph when we last saw him in 2019. … Lefty Joey Cantillo was part of the Clevinger deal; he gets great deception from a funky delivery and has a plus changeup, but may not be able to turn a lineup over multiple times without more velocity or a better breaking ball. … Logan Allen The Younger was a safe, low-ceiling college pick, a lefty with three average pitches who missed a lot of bats and rarely walked guys in three years at FIU. … Petey Halpin was their third-round pick in 2020, a center fielder who got bigger and stronger before his senior spring, adding to his potential power but possibly at the cost of staying in center. His swing is handsy, and he doesn’t have the loft or the strong front side he’ll need to get to that power. … Milan Tolentino was the fourth-rounder last year, a solid shortstop with poor bat control and a long swing.
2021 impact
McKenzie should start 2021 in the big-league rotation, and Clase in the bullpen. Cleveland doesn’t have an incumbent at first base, so perhaps Bobby Bradley will get a chance to win that job.
Sleeper
Tena was my pick last year. A healthy Torres makes that leap, too.
(Photo of Triston McKenzie: Raj Mehta / USA Today)
