The Giants have had strong farm systems before, as recently as a decade ago, but the whole tone of this system is different. They built those three world champions with high school pitching and college bats, whereas this wave of prospects is more global in nature, the product of a renewed focus on the international market. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi came over from the Dodgers, who had one of the best player development programs in the league, and if he brings any of that magic with him, the Giants could be a force to reckon with in a few years.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Marco Luciano, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 31)
From the Top 100: Luciano was the Giants’ big signing in the July 2018 international period, getting $2.6 million as a bonus, and had a tremendous U.S. debut in 2019 in the Arizona League at age 17. He did so well and is so important in the Giants’ eyes that they had him at their alternate site last summer even though he was just 18, then had him play through instructs, all to try to replace some of what was lost when he would have been in Low A. Luciano has plus bat speed and loose hands at the plate, with the ability to drive the ball to all fields and power to come as he fills out. He’s a shortstop for now, with a plus arm and soft enough hands, although he might grow big enough to move to third base in time, especially since his foot speed is already fringy. Even at third base, though, he could have the hit/OBP/power tools to project as a superstar there, just needing some reps against real pitching in Low A to prove it.
2. Joey Bart, C (Top 100 rank: No. 41)
From the Top 100: Bart only debuted out of need, and his lack of experience really showed, especially once pitchers adjusted to him and started pounding him with soft stuff away. The No. 2 overall pick in 2018, Bart missed a chunk of time in 2019 due to injury, so he reached the majors with just 130 games of pro experience, and that exacerbated the problems he already had with contact. Bart has plus power and a plus arm, and he gets raves for his receiving and game-calling, so it comes down to how much he can hit. With his deep hand load and some recognition issues with off-speed pitches, he’s not an advanced hitter right now, and there’s a good chance he ends up a 40/45 hitter but is still a regular because he’s a great defensive catcher with power. I generally argue that we should dismiss stats from 2020, but Bart whiffing on more than a quarter of the non-fastballs he saw this year is at least a tiny bit concerning, especially with previous concerns on his hit tool. I think he’s a longtime regular, with the high floor from his defense, but maybe doesn’t have the hit tool to be a star.
3. Heliot Ramos, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 58)
From the Top 100: Ramos is still just 21, since he was only 17 when the Giants took him in the first round in 2017, and should start this year in Double A after spending the tail end of the summer of 2019 at that level, which puts him on track for a debut when he’s 22. He’s an aggressive hitter who can be all-or-nothing at the plate, with good enough hand-eye coordination that he’ll hit for some average and plus power even with a high strikeout rate. Ramos has mostly played center in pro ball, but he has already put a lot of muscle on his 6-foot frame, and he’s going to have to move to a corner in the majors — probably left field, given how large right field is in San Francisco — but he has 30-homer power and I think enough hard contact in his approach to profile as an above-average regular there.
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4. Seth Corry, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 71)
From the Top 100: Corry is a high-upside lefty who has started to fill out physically and now has to finish developing as a pitcher to get to his ceiling as a potential No. 2 starter. He’s now pitching at 94-96 mph and the curveball is plus, although he doesn’t command the pitch well enough yet, and he has improved his changeup enough to talk about him as a starter long-term. He’s getting stronger and has shortened his arm stroke since high school, allowing him to repeat it more and giving him a little more deception. He may never have above-average control but could get to average and succeed because his pure stuff will miss bats in the zone. Corry was unhittable in the second half of 2019 after he brought his walk rate down, with a 1.18 ERA in 68 2/3 innings, 18 walks and 92 strikeouts. He still wasn’t throwing a ton of strikes, but he threw enough, especially when behind in the count, to let the quality of his stuff take over. That’s what we’re looking for when games resume as a measure of how likely he is to get to that upside.
5. Patrick Bailey, C
Bailey was the Giants’ first-round pick in 2020, surprising some fans who assumed Bart was the team’s catcher of the future. But Bailey was among the best players available at the pick, and there’s really no such thing as having too much catching — especially with no other catching prospects in the system behind Bart. Bailey is a well-rounded player with no 7s on his scouting report but a lot of above-average tools, a switch-hitter with real power, an above-average glove and an average arm. The one big knock on him is that he has never really hit for average, but he also doesn’t strike out too often and walks at a good clip. He looks like a potential 55 regular, with OBPs and power above the median for a catcher and enough defense there to be at least average.
6. Hunter Bishop, OF
Bishop posts enormous exit velocities and has 30-plus homer power along with plus speed, but he’s raw like a teenaged prospect even though he was a college draft pick, taken in the first round in 2019 out of Arizona State. He swings and misses more than he should given his bat speed and age, and his reads in the outfield are poor enough that he’s a left fielder despite his running ability. He’s built like a safety, though, and is inexperienced enough that you can reasonably project more skill growth for him than you would for most 22-year-olds. He’s a platoon outfielder as is but has that power projection and at least the physical ability to end up a plus defender in left to become an above-average regular.
7. Luis Matos, OF
Matos has started to separate himself a little from the group of top Latin American prospects in this system beyond Luciano — Luis Toribio, Alexander Canario, Jairo Pomares, et al — as a potential plus defender in center who could hit for average and some power if he keeps his swing under control. Matos is very athletic, runs above average and has good hand speed at the plate with strong forearms to create hard contact, which right now is more line drives than big power. If he keeps the strikeout rate manageable, he has All-Star upside in center and will create value with his range, bat, OBP and legs, with maybe 15 homers a year.
8. Will Wilson, 2B
Wilson, acquired as part of the trade in which the Giants took on the last year of Zack Cozart’s contract (and released him) from the Angels, looks like a very shrewd pickup, as he projects as a 55 defender at second with plus power and enough hit tool to get to it. Wilson hits to all fields and understands when to try to pull the ball and put it in the seats.
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9. Luis Toribio, 3B
Toribio has a sweet left-handed swing and plus plate discipline, one of the more patient hitters in this system, which gives him a solid floor. He hits well, with good timing at the plate and an approach that uses the whole field, although he might top out at fringe-average power. He throws enough for third base, but he’s fringy at best with the glove and could end up in right field.
10. Alexander Canario, OF
The Giants added Canario to their roster this winter shortly after the outfielder had surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, but the power-hitting Dominican is supposed to be ready to go for spring training. Signed for just $60,000 in 2016, Canario has superb bat speed and a good swing that should produce huge power, 25-30 homers at his peak, but he does swing and miss a lot, and his pitch recognition isn’t where it should be given his experience level. He’s in center now but is not likely to have the range or speed to stay there. If he hits, he’ll hit for enough power to be a regular in right field.
11. Sean Hjelle, RHP
The 6-foot-11 pitcher has seen his velocity creep up since the Giants drafted him in 2018 out of the University of Kentucky, so he can sit 93-94 mph as a starter (and has touched 97 in short stints), which, combined with the unique angle he presents to hitters, can make him tough to hit. He doesn’t have a clear plus pitch among his fastball, curve and change, but nothing is below average, and for a guy with levers this long he repeats his delivery well and has above-average command. He’s a big-league starter, so the question will be whether he’s just a back-end guy or a shade better than league average because his size makes him so hard for hitters to pick up.
12. Nick Swiney, LHP
Swiney was the Giants’ second-round pick in 2020, a reliever for most of his first two years at North Carolina State who came out throwing bullets early in his junior year, drastically cutting his walk rate and topping out at 95 with a plus curveball. He’ll work with an average fastball going every fifth day, but he gets good “rise” on the pitch (it’s in quotes because fastballs don’t actually rise) and has a plus curveball and average changeup. The knock on him was that he’s slight, but he seems strong and his delivery gets him way out over his front side for more deception. I think he can start, but recognize the industry hesitation that he might be a reliever.
13. Kyle Harrison, LHP
The Giants gave Harrison $2.5 million as an over-slot pick in 2020 after his velocity picked up in the spring. He gets good sink on a low-90s fastball and in instructs was showing an 83-84 mph slider that can be a hammer when he finishes it. He has already rather filled out for a high school pitching prospect but also doesn’t need more velocity to be a potential big-league starter. He has had some delivery inconsistency in the past, but the Giants already seem to have helped him refine it, which gives more confidence that he’ll also end up with above-average command. He’s as risky as the typical high school arm but has mid-rotation upside.
14. Luis Basabe, OF
Acquired from the White Sox in a cash deal after Chicago designated him for assignment, Basabe could be a fourth outfielder right now since he can play all three positions, and if he’s fully healthy, he has the slight potential to be a regular in center field. He broke his hamate bone in February 2019 and his power was down the whole year as a result, although before that he’d shown the ability to make hard contact with 45-50 power. Basabe cleared outright waivers in early February, removing him from the 40-man roster, and it’s a small surprise no team claimed him given he’s ready to do something in the majors right now, even if he doesn’t have much upside.
15. Jairo Pomares, OF
The Cuban right fielder projects to a plus hit tool with future-average power, with a swing that’s geared toward contact. He’s a left-handed hitter with a somewhat stiffer body than the other athletes in this system, and he’s a below-average runner who will have to work on his defense to get to average. His reputation is that he has an advanced approach for his age, but we didn’t see that in 2019 when he played in the Arizona League and briefly in the Northwest League.
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16. Gregory Santos, RHP
Santos was one of the two players the Giants received in the trade for Eduardo Núñez in July 2017, along with the since-departed Shaun Anderson. (As an aside, has any player gotten a longer career out of nothing than Núñez? He was an overhyped Yankees prospect a decade ago, has had over 3,000 major-league plate appearances, and his career WAR is negative. And he still played in 2020. God bless America.) Santos works in the upper 90s in short bursts, touching 99 mph, with an above-average slider, so the shoulder woes that sidelined him for most of 2019 appear to be behind him. He worked as a starter in his previous two seasons, but his future is in the bullpen, where he might be a closer or other high-leverage reliever.
17. Tristan Beck, RHP
Beck could have been a first-rounder out of high school but wanted more than teams were willing to pay and went to Stanford, where his back woes began, costing him quite a bit of money and also casting doubt on his ability to hold up as a starter. When he’s healthy, he’s good, with a mid-90s fastball and plus curveball, and he has enough of a changeup to be a fifth starter. Maybe the changeup improves and he has a league-average season or two, but his track record so far doesn’t speak to long-term durability.
18. Logan Wyatt, 1B
Wyatt is a patient contact hitter who plays above-average defense at first, but he has to get to power to be a regular. He has the size for it but not the swing, as his plane is flat and won’t produce more than singles and doubles. I said a year ago he’d be the perfect guy for the kind of swing optimization that Zaidi’s former employers in L.A. liked to do. He’s sort of a Max Muncy starter kit, albeit a good 4 inches taller; Wyatt is patient, makes solid contact, is athletic enough to field well at first and is strong, but his swing, like Muncy’s pre-change, doesn’t put the ball in the air enough. We’ll see if the Giants can help him tap into more power.
19. Kai-Wei Teng, RHP
Teng came with Jaylin Davis (see below) in a 2019 trade for Sam Dyson, a deal that might not give the Giants a star or a regular but still represents good value and very good scouting. Teng has an average fastball and changeup and throws strikes, with fringe-average breaking stuff, lacking the arm speed to throw much harder but with enough control to profile as a back-end starter.
20. Casey Schmitt, 3B
Schmitt, the Giants’ second-round pick in 2020, was a two-way guy for San Diego State, but he’s a third baseman for now. Schmitt has a long swing, nearly barring his lead arm, but rarely struck out in college and has shown that he at least has 60 raw power even if he doesn’t get to it yet in games. He was a 55 to 60 defender at third in college with a plus arm (he was up to 96 as a closer), but reports from instructs had him moving poorly with below-average defense. There are the elements of an above-average regular here, but he needs more development than the typical college product.
Others of note
OF Jaylin Davis has now had two cups of coffee over the last two years, with just 59 major-league PA; he had a big outlier season in 2019, hitting 35 homers between Double A and Triple A (10 in a month in the old Pacific Coast League), but he’s a strong groundball hitter whose swing and serious trouble with breaking stuff make him look like a tweener. … RHP Blake Rivera can show plus velocity and an above-average curveball, but he doesn’t throw enough strikes to project as a starter. … RHP Camilo Doval can hit 100 mph with high spin rates and unusual pitch shapes, a straight reliever with a big, loopy arm swing who has to throw more strikes to avoid becoming the next Ray Black. … Outfielder Grant McCray is a true center fielder who runs well and takes good routes. He’s lean and lanky, with a frame that should fill out well for future power, but has some hitches in the swing that are going to hold him back as a hitter.
2021 impact
Bart will compete for the Giants’ backup catcher spot. Davis could get some time in the outfield, especially in left, and Basabe could be their fourth outfielder at any point this season.
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Sleeper
Matos was my sleeper for the Giants last year, and he has moved up, just not into the top 100 since he didn’t get much chance to perform or otherwise show off for scouts. Harrison would be a second sleeper for 2021.
(Photo of Marco Luciano: Zachary Lucy / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
