The Reds dealt a lot of prospects to get to the playoffs in 2020, but there’s still talent here, with one potential superstar at the top and some high-upside bats further down. They’ve landed on big leaguers when drafting in the top 10, less so with later picks, and still haven’t been as productive on the international side as a low-payroll team needs to be.
To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Hunter Greene, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 28)
From the Top 100: Greene was back from Tommy John surgery last summer and throwing hard once again at Cincinnati’s alternate site, where he would clock up to 102 mph and pitch at 97-98. Greene has remarkably easy velocity, and while he rehabbed from the surgery he gained a substantial amount of muscle, which should help him work deeper into games. He has added a cutter, along with an improving slider and hard changeup, although that last pitch might be too firm and doesn’t have a lot of action to it. He was working six innings or so per outing by the end of summer, which should set him up for a full season of pitching if we get a regular minor-league schedule, and he could make his debut by the end of the year.
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2. Jonathan India, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 88)
From the Top 100: The baseball world gave up on India after a terrible 2019 season at the plate while he tried to play through a wrist injury he suffered in April, but in 2020 he looked like he had all his hand strength back and was hitting the ball harder all summer at the Reds’ alternate site. India came out of nowhere to have a huge junior year at the University of Florida that moved him from something like second- or third-round status all the way up to the fifth pick in 2018. He was always seen as an instinctive, tough player who would get the most out of his tools, but it wasn’t until that spring that he showed he could drive the ball for extra-base hits, with 21 homers for the Gators before the draft, although in pro ball with wood bats that will probably look more like 35 doubles and 15 homers. He’s an above-average defender at third who could certainly move to second and handle short in a pinch. If the Reds decide to move Eugenio Suárez’s contract at some point, it could be in part because of their faith that India will man one of those two infield spots by the end of this year.
3. Nick Lodolo, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 100)
From the Top 100: Lodolo is close at this point, a lower-ceiling starter who should pitch in the majors for a long time with a fairly safe floor. He’s working at 90-94 mph now with two breaking balls, including a hard slider that breaks well away from left-handed hitters and works as a chase pitch, and he’s developing the changeup he’ll need to keep getting right-handers out as he faces better competition. Lodolo comes from a low three-quarter slot that makes him really tough on lefties, with good extension that so far has given him an edge against right-handed batters even without an average changeup. He’s probably a fourth starter in the end but could also have value right now in the bullpen as a left-on-left guy or long man while he works on developing that fourth pitch.
4. José Israel García, SS (Just Missed)
From the Just Missed list: García had been a top-100 prospect off a solid season in High A but was very, very clearly not ready for the majors last year, striking out in 38 percent of his 68 plate appearances in the big leagues — he had twice as many strikeouts as hits — with just one walk. I don’t know how a debut that bad might affect García in the long term, but it did underscore that his hit tool is still a ways off. He’s a plus defender at short with good actions and a strong arm, and he projects to come into some power as he fills out, so as with Gabriel Arias, there’s the potential there for a good regular or more if he shows he can make enough quality contact.
5. Tyler Stephenson, C
Stephenson is a power-hitting catcher with a 70 arm who’s been beset by fluky injuries for much of his pro career. He can get to a fastball but struggles with off-speed stuff, and his swing is just naturally long because of his 6-foot-5 frame, which puts him at the upper end of the range for catchers. He could be a regular and is probably ready to share the job with Tucker Barnhart this year, but his upside is limited by his hit tool.
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6. Austin Hendrick, OF
Hendrick was their first-round pick in 2020, a 19-year-old high school outfielder with huge exit velocities and the power to match. He didn’t get to play last spring before the pandemic hit but fared well the previous summer against good competition. He’s a below-average defender in right and may end up at first base, although if he hits as expected, the position won’t matter.
7. Mike Siani, OF
Siani has three 6s on the scouting report, with plus speed, a plus arm and plus defense in center, so the challenge is just getting him to hit enough so those tools can play. He should be going for contact over power but is too pull-conscious and is still trying to lift the ball more than he needs to; he could be a high-average hitter with a slew of doubles and triples if he’d use the whole field more, going to right-center when he’s pitched that way. He plays extremely hard and is already a favorite of the coaches, but his chance to be an All-Star comes down to his approach.
8. Rece Hinds, 3B
Hinds was the talk of the Reds’ instructional league, showing 80 raw power and some adjustments at the plate to increase the confidence that the power might play in games. Hinds was all or nothing in high school and can still look that way, swinging hard to try to hit the ball as far as he can and playing defense similarly, with the kind of careless mistakes he should outgrow. He’s the ultimate in high-risk, high-reward; the odds are still against him hitting enough to be a regular, but if he does, he has 30-homer power and could do that while playing average defense at third base.
9. Tony Santillan, RHP
Santillan has been very inconsistent the past two years since a breakout 2018 campaign that put him on my top 100, although his velocity has at least stayed intact. Santillan can work at 94-98 mph and has touched 100 mph as a starter with a hard slider and hard changeup, but he is showing below-average command and control, which resurfaced the pre-draft sentiment that he’d have to go to the pen. He might be better served pitching in the majors, even in relief, in 2020 rather than going back to Triple A to face hitters he can just try to blow away with power.
10. Tyler Callihan, IF
Callihan is the anti-Hinds in some ways — Hinds is a huge bet on power with low probability, but Callihan seems like an extremely good bet to hit, with questions instead about his ultimate position but enough bat to get him to the majors. He’s a left-handed hitter with a strong eye and gap-to-gap approach, reminiscent of Jesse Winker at the same age (although Winker turned out to be way more patient than I realized — at least when he got into pro ball), and he showed he could hang in against tough lefties in high school. He makes hard contact, but it’s more doubles than home runs and might stay that way, especially since he’s not very projectable. He’ll be adequate at second or third, likely never average, but if he hits as expected, he’ll profile at either spot.
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11. Ivan Johnson, IF
Johnson is a switch-hitting middle infielder, most likely a second baseman, with an intriguing power/speed combination and some ability to drive the ball the other way — enough that it looks like he’ll hit for enough average to get to 55 power and be at least a quality utility guy with everyday upside if he can keep his strikeout rate down.
12. Jackson Miller, C
Miller was their third pick in the 2020 draft, a bat-first catcher from a Florida high school who has a 55 arm and soft hands but needs refinement behind the plate. He has a sweet left-handed swing and showed an advanced feel to hit against high school pitching, but he has below-average power now and doesn’t project to more than average at his peak. He has everyday upside with the usual risk of teenaged catching prospects.
13. Lyon Richardson, RHP
Richardson was a two-way guy in high school who had some promise as a shortstop, but he went to the Reds as a pitcher because he’d been touching 95-plus off the mound. His velocity backed up in 2019, but some independent work with Cressey Sports got him back up to 93-95 mph, touching 97 in short stints, with a bucket of average secondary pitches, although he still has some violence in the delivery that holds back his command. He could be a fourth starter or maybe a power reliever.
14. Jacob Heatherly, LHP
Heatherly barely pitched in 2019, missing time with shoulder tightness and a personal issue, but had flashed 94-97 mph with a plus curveball and was showing the same at instructs last year. He could make a big jump if he gets to pitch and can show he’s durable enough to start.
15. Vladimir Gutiérrez, RHP
Gutiérrez threw really well in instructs, so the Reds added him to their 40-man roster even though he was suspended 80 games for a positive performance-enhancing drug test and couldn’t go to the alternate site during the season. He can show an average fastball and average breaking ball as a starter but lacks a third pitch. However, now that he’s on the 40, he’d be a candidate to go to the bullpen and possibly make the club this spring as a two-pitch reliever.
16. Jared Solomon, RHP
Solomon was 94-98 mph with a plus slider in instructs before blowing out his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out until 2022. The Reds still put him on their 40-man roster, fearing someone would take the athletic reliever in the Rule 5 draft and try to rehab him.
17. Riley O’Brien, RHP
The Reds added O’Brien in a trade for Cody Reed from Tampa Bay. O’Brien can get into the upper 90s as a starter with two solid secondary pitches, but he’s very slight and his fastball plays below its velocity, so the scouting consensus is that he’ll end up a reliever or a fifth starter.
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18. Michel Triana, 1B
Triana, a Cuban slugger, signed in 2019 for $1.3 million on the belief that he’d be a plus-hit/plus-power bat who’d be passable enough to stand around first base. He has yet to get into a game, however, and visa issues kept him from attending instructs in the fall.
19. Bryce Bonnin, RHP
Bonnin is a former two-way player who can be very wild on the mound but has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, striking out nearly 40 percent of the guys he faced for Texas Tech last spring before the pandemic. He’s probably a good two-pitch reliever but doesn’t have a ton of pitching experience — only 102 innings in college, including the Cape — so maybe there’s more upside here.
20. Christian Roa, RHP
Roa was a slight reach in the second round last year, as he was a swingman at Texas A&M who struggled to execute his delivery consistently and gave up more hard contact than you’d like. He’ll pitch with above-average velocity, but his secondary stuff is all over the place.
Others of note: Outfielder Mariel Bautista has big power and speed tools but too much swing-and-miss when he’s been able to play, and he doesn’t have quite the huge upside or potential to stay on the dirt as someone like Hinds. … Joe Boyle is 6-foot-8 and hits triple digits on his fastball, throwing an above-average slider, but he’s a mechanical mess and had trouble finding the plate for Notre Dame, which hasn’t produced a pitcher who has been above replacement level in the majors since David Phelps was drafted in 2008.
2021 impact
As I write this, García would be the Reds’ starting shortstop, which is the worst idea. Otherwise, their roster looks rather set, maybe with some room in the bullpen for Gutiérrez or O’Brien or part-time catching duty for Stephenson.
Sleeper
Last year’s was Heatherly; here’s hoping he’s healthy and gets the chance to pitch. Hinds might be all or nothing, but the “all” might be Joey Gallo.
(Photo of Hunter Greene: Alex Trautwig / MLB via Getty Images)
