The Cubs built from within to win the World Series in 2016 and return to the playoffs in three of the four years since then, but their farm system has been on the decline since, thanks to costly trades, lower draft picks and worse results when they have picked. The silver lining is that there are some very good arms in the system, many potential starters, but few of them are close to helping the major-league team.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Brennen Davis, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 51)
From the Top 100: Davis, the Cubs’ second-rounder in 2018, was a two-sport athlete who starred in basketball and baseball for Basha High School in Arizona. But he has turned out to be more advanced at the plate than most players who split time playing multiple sports. Davis has a balanced swing with good extension, although it can get kind of long because he’s so lanky at 6-foot-4, 175 pounds. He showed solid plate discipline in his full-season debut in 2019, although he was limited to 50 games when a finger injury effectively ended his season that July, with more power than anticipated given how much room he has left to fill out. He was a shortstop in high school but has handled the move to center field well, showing enough range already to project to stay there over the long term and even end up an above-average to plus defender. He just needs reps, as with so many players drafted in 2018-19 who haven’t gotten much playing time yet, but has star upside between the OBP/power potential and his range in center.
2. Brailyn Marquez, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 72)
From the Top 100: Marquez’s major-league debut didn’t quite go as planned, but he remains the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, with the upside of a top-end starter or similarly high-impact closer. He can hit 101 and averaged 98 in that one major-league outing, with a wipeout slider that’s going to make left-handed hitters’ lives extremely difficult. He does have a changeup that has improved in the last few years, although it’s still a clear third pitch for him and he may always show a modest platoon split. The main concern I have on Marquez is his delivery, which is tough for him to repeat because of the way he spins off his front heel, how late his arm is relative to when his front foot lands, and his tendency to let his arm slot drift downward, all of which puts his command at risk and may lead to a bullpen role in the future. In short bursts, however, he could be one of the best relievers in baseball, with stuff that may rival Aroldis Chapman’s from the same side.
3. Miguel Amaya, C (Just missed)
From the Just Missed list: Amaya has everyday upside, with plus power and a plus arm behind the plate, along with adequate receiving skills right now; he couldn’t crack the Top 100 last year because of the poor choices he can make at the plate, often giving away at-bats and making weak contact on pitches he should take. Maybe that’s improved since last we saw him in High-A Myrtle Beach, but — stop me if you’ve heard this before — he needs to prove it against real competition.
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4. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
Alzolay has made solid progress with his changeup, the third pitch he’ll need to be a starter, to go along with his plus slider — which has shown spin rates of 2900-3000 in the majors the last two years — and his fastball, which has played down a bit from its velocity and spin so far. He’s a strike-thrower but has maybe 45 command, missing a lot with his fastball to his glove side as he’s trying to work away from right-handed batters. He’s probably more of a back-end starter with league-average ceiling than a No. 1 or 2, but if he can pitch more heavily off his slider without breaking down, there could be something more.
Howard was the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2020, the first time they took a high school player there since Albert Almora Jr. in 2012. Howard is a great athlete but definitely further ahead in the field than at the plate, where he hasn’t had many reps against good pitching and struggled when he did see it as an amateur. He has great bat speed and rotates his hips well to get to future power if and when he fills out, while in the field he has the range and arm to be a plus defender with the potential to be a 70. He’s likely to be a five-year development guy rather than a fast-to-the-majors high school player.
6. Kohl Franklin, RHP
Franklin didn’t go to the Cubs’ alternate site last year, so my choice of him as my sleeper prospect would still hold. He’s a projectable right-hander who can show three pitches now, with all three potentially getting to plus or at least strong grade-55 offerings. He’s got good spin on a curveball and a changeup that is probably his best weapon right now, and has room on his frame to add more strength and get to more velocity, with some already showing up when he threw on the side in instructs. He has a great delivery that he repeats well and that gets him on top of the ball for depth on the curve. He would be a back-end starter as is but has at least mid-rotation ceiling.
7. Ryan Jensen, RHP
Jensen was the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2019, the hardest-throwing starter in his college class, up to 99 with his four-seamer along with a mid-90s sinker that just explodes at the plate. He’s a great athlete, more than enough to overcome any concerns about his 6-1 height, but does need to get more consistency to his slider. He could be a league-average starter depending on that pitch and overall command.
8. Yohendrick Pinango, OF
Signed for $400,000 in 2018, Pinango looks like an advanced left-handed hitter, with good pitch recognition and bat-to-ball skills for his age. The Venezuelan outfielder has a running back’s frame and looks like he’s going to get a lot stronger, potentially with plus power, even though he didn’t homer in 274 PA in his DSL debut (albeit with 20 doubles). He’s in center now but probably moves to a corner in time, so the power has to develop for him to be a solid regular or better. He’s already passed some of the Cubs’ higher-dollar signs from that same year, including pitcher Richard Gallardo and outfielder José Lopez.
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9. Riley Thompson, RHP
Thompson has a 70 changeup and a curveball that gets spin rates up to 3000 rpms, but there’s a starter/reliever question here that will come down to how well his fastball plays. He can work in the low- to mid-90s as a starter, but the pitch plays below its velocity, while he’s hit 100 mph before when working in relief. He also has had a lot of arm trouble, with Tommy John surgery in high school and shoulder soreness while in college at Louisville. The secondary stuff would point to an above-average starter, but between health and the fastball quality, he’s about as likely to end up in the bullpen as he is to start.
10. Reginald Preciado, SS
The best prospect the Cubs received from the Padres in the Yu Darvish salary dump, Preciado signed with San Diego in 2019 for $1.3 million. The Panamian shortstop projects to be a plus defender with great instincts in the field, soft hands and a plus arm. He’s a switch-hitter with bat control but needs to get a lot stronger, although he has room on his 6-4 frame to add a good 20 pounds of muscle. He’s tall for shortstop, but we’re seeing taller guys — Carlos Correa, Corey Seager — hang around that position now, and Preciado has better pure defensive skills than those guys did at 17.
11. Chase Strumpf, 2B
Strumpf might still be most famous for committing to UCLA while still a ninth-grader, which I’d say is more a symptom of a larger disease than anything to hold against him. A former shortstop who’s now at second, where he’s probably solid-average but could get to grade 55 defense, Strumpf is very patient, but over-rotates at the plate and doesn’t cover the outer half well enough yet to project him to hit or get to enough power to be a regular.
12. Cole Roederer, OF
Roederer has gotten stronger in the last year and a half, but it looks like it’s slowing him down and making him stiffer at the plate and in the field than you’d like. He can still crush fastballs but has some issues with off-speed stuff, especially changeups from right-handers. Between poor performance in 2019 and the possibility that his size is going to force him to an outfield corner, he looks more like an extra guy now than a regular.
13. Chris Clarke, RHP
Clarke was the Cubs’ fourth-round pick in 2019 out of USC, in large part because they saw a lot of untapped potential in his 6-6, 6-7 frame. He’ll work 92-94 with good sink and has a plus curveball with high spin rates, holding his arm slot well between the pitches, although he could finish more consistently over his front side. He has at least 55 control, but his changeup is below average and he has to develop that to start.
14. Christopher Morel, 3B
Morel signed in 2015 but didn’t debut until 2017 after a freak arm injury and was kind of awful in 2018 when the Cubs sent him to short-season Eugene, where he struck out 29 times in 93 PA with no walks. He finally seemed to be breaking through in 2019 when he injured his knee in July, ending his season, but he did so with career highs in batting average and slugging. He has a very fast bat and plus raw power, with above-average running speed that hasn’t translated into value on the bases yet, but his main issue is still pitch recognition. He has everyday upside at third if his eye develops.
15. Yovanny Cruz, RHP
Cruz has dynamic stuff, with good sink on a fastball up to 96 and tight spin on a curveball, along with a delivery he should be able to repeat, but he’s been plagued by minor injuries and general inconsistency. He has substantial upside but really has to stay on the mound for a full year to make progress.
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16. Rafael Morel, SS
Signed three years later than his brother Christopher, Rafael is actually the more toolsy of the Morels, a better runner with more strength and likely more power in the long term, and is also likely to stay at shortstop with good range and a plus arm.
17. Michael McAvene, RHP
McAvene was a straight reliever at Louisville, often just working an inning per appearance, but the Cubs, who took him in the third round in 2019, are developing him as a starter, at least to try to get him more innings and let him work on his delivery and his off-speed stuff. He was up to 98 in the NCAA Tournament in his draft year, showing both a slider and changeup that would be at least average, but there’s effort in the delivery and he has had trouble holding it for multiple innings.
18. Yeison Santana, SS
Santana came with Preciado in the Darvish trade. He’s a shortstop who’s going to end up at second base, with great bat-to-ball skills and good power for his age, although he swings very hard with an open stance and that ordinarily would make you expect more swing and miss.
19. Owen Caissie, OF
Caissie is the third player from the Darvish trade to make this list — there’s one more in the honorable mentions — and has the most upside at the plate, with huge power from an unusual but very fast left-handed swing. He has a plus arm and could play anywhere in the outfield, but he struggled with the glove in instructs and might be a below-average defender in a corner.
20. Ethan Hearn, C
Hearn is still where he was a year ago, a great catch-and-throw guy with power and bat speed but a poor approach with too much swing and miss. Catchers do seem to develop later and his glove and arm are more than enough to make him a backup if he can even make enough contact to hit .220-.230.
Others of note
DJ Herz, whose given name is Davidjohn, was an over-slot sign in the eighth round in 2019 out of a North Carolina high school, where he pitched and was also the school’s starting quarterback. He’s up to 95 but still has to work on a breaking ball, and the history of quarterbacks-turned-pitchers isn’t that great. … Catcher Ronnier Quintero took home the largest bonus the Cubs have ever given an international amateur free agent ($2.9 million in 2019), but he’s a long way away, with more arm than glove and a noisy approach that produces power but holds him back as a hitter. … Outfielder Ismael Mena was the fourth prospect in the Darvish trade, a projectable outfielder who looks like he’ll get to power but has a very long swing with a deep hand load that is going to make contact an issue. … Justin Nwogu is physical and strong, with plus power and speed, but struggles picking up spin and is probably several years behind where he should be in plate discipline. … Burl Carraway, their second-round pick in 2020, has the high-spin fastball and potential out-pitch curveball to move quickly as a reliever but has to throw a lot more strikes.
2021 impact
Alzolay is probably in the rotation now after the Darvish trade, and either Marquez or right-hander Tyson Miller, a strike-thrower with fringy stuff, could win the fifth spot.
Sleeper
Franklin was my sleeper for them last year. That’s still in play, but I’d add Pinango as a position player to watch.
(Photo of Brailyn Marquez: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)
