The top of the Tigers’ system is ridiculous, with more players in my top 40 (five) than any other team, thanks to four players taken in the top 10 of the draft. The system thins out quickly after about a dozen names, though, with less success after the first round and virtually nothing on the international free agency front in the last five years.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Casey Mize, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 11)
From the Top 100: Mize was the first overall pick in 2018, but his ascent to the majors stalled in 2019, right after he threw a no-hitter in Double A, when he hit the injured list with shoulder inflammation. He was healthy in 2020 and throwing as hard as he had before the injury, but became homer-prone in the majors, marring an otherwise promising debut. Mize can touch 97 mph and sits 92-94 mph, throwing a four-seamer and sinker according to Statcast data, although the two pitches are pretty similar in velocity. His off-speed stuff ranges from above-average (slider) to plus-plus (his splitter), and MLB hitters swung and missed at 14 percent of all non-fastballs he threw in 2020, so there’s a clear path for him to miss bats and avoid hard contact by pitching less with his fastballs and more with his splitter, slider and curve. He ran into trouble by leaving too many sinkers and sliders up in the zone in the majors, and his slider in particular is more of a chase pitch against right-handed batters than a pitch to generate whiffs in the strike zone. Mize has all the ingredients to be a No. 1 starter, especially with that devastating splitter, so it’s a matter of refining his pitching plan, and working to locate better to the top and bottom of the strike zone. Given his intelligence and athleticism, there’s no reason to doubt his ability to do just that.
2. Spencer Torkelson, 1B/3B (Top 100 rank: No. 18)
From the Top 100: Torkelson was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, following a career at Arizona State in which he hit 54 homers in 129 games for the Sun Devils, including a .780 slugging percentage last spring before the world fell apart. He’s an advanced hitter with a fairly simple right-handed swing and plus-plus power now, as he’s already well filled out and quite strong for his age. Torkelson is competent at first base, but the Tigers have tried him out at third and will continue to develop him there, at least in the short term, since playing the more difficult position would boost his value quite a bit even if he’s just a fringe defender there. Even at first base, this would be an impact bat who’ll hit 30+ homers on a regular basis with a strong OBP, but if third base works out — and it is a longshot — he’d probably make some MVP ballots in his prime.
3. Matt Manning, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 21)
From the Top 100: Manning would have seen the majors along with teammates Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal last year but for a minor forearm strain that led the Tigers to shut him down in late August. A former two-sport star in high school who had a scholarship to play basketball at Loyola Marymount, the 6-foot-6 Manning was more of a thrower with a golden arm when the Tigers took him ninth overall in 2016, but Detroit has turned him into a polished pitcher, with a much-improved delivery that gets him over his front side better and a real breaking ball that was absent when he was in high school. He can sit comfortably at 92-95 mph, with more in there if needed, and has the curve and changeup as above-average secondary pitches. He did have serious trouble with his control the winter after he signed, but that’s long behind him. I think he can be a No. 2 starter if healthy, especially given his athleticism and how well he’s already taken to the adjustments the Tigers made with him.
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4. Tarik Skubal, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 22)
From the Top 100: Skubal can show the best combination of stuff, delivery and athleticism of the Tigers’ big three pitching prospects (along with Casey Mize and Matt Manning), but major-league hitters hit Skubal very hard last year, and that’s not consistent with the quality of his pitches. Skubal sat 92-97 mph in the majors with an upper-80s slider, both of which finished in the zone far too often, the main reason he was hit so hard. Skubal’s approach is to try to go up with his high-spin four-seamer, down and away to lefties with his breaking pitches, and away to righties with the changeup, but he executed the curve and change far better than the fastball and slider. Most of the damage he gave up was from right-handed batters, and his failure to execute the fastball is probably the reason. He should dominate with this stuff, and I still think he will, but there are clear adjustments he needs to make to get to that No. 2 starter ceiling.
5. Riley Greene, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 34)
From the Top 100: Greene was the fifth overall pick in 2019, out of a Florida high school, but impressed the Tigers so much in his pro debut that they had him finish his first summer in full-season ball. That decision looks great in hindsight, since there was no season in 2020, and at least he heads into 2021 with a little experience outside of short-season leagues. Greene is a bat-first prospect, with very good feel to hit and a mechanically sound swing, projecting to get to above-average or plus power in his 20s. He’s played all three outfield spots, with good instincts in the field, but projects to go to a corner and be above-average there, given his speed now and the likely decline as he gets bigger. Like so many teenage prospects, he needs a minor-league season to continue to develop, or just to show us how advanced he already is.
6. Dillon Dingler, C
Dingler could have gone in the first round last June, but concerns about his durability after some injuries in college may have pushed him to the second round, where the Tigers nabbed him. He’s an above-average defensive catcher who came on with the bat last spring after two years of not hitting for average; even if he only hits .240 or so, he should walk some and hit for above-average power, which, with his defense, would make him a good regular.
7. Isaac Paredes, 3B
Paredes makes hard contact, using the whole field with a line-drive approach, hitting more for doubles power and unlikely to get to 20+ homers. I was surprised that he didn’t get a single Barrel in 76 balls hit into play in 2020, but I won’t draw conclusions from a small sample in a weird year. He’s a fringy defender at third and could end up pushed to an outfield corner.
8. Daz Cameron, OF
Cameron is a plus defender in center and has the bat speed and eye to be a soft regular in center, but his big-league stint in 2020 made it seem like he wasn’t strong enough to convert what he did hit into base hits. Some of his trouble was just struggling with big-league velocity and breaking stuff, but even pitches he hit on a line didn’t leave the bat at high enough speed. Maybe he just has to add some more muscle, not to be like his power-hitting father Mike, but to be a better hitter for average.
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9. Daniel Cabrera, OF
Cabrera was the Tigers’ third overall pick in 2020, a polished hitter with a mature approach at the plate who had a disappointing sophomore year at LSU in 2019 and didn’t get much time to reverse that impression last spring. I like his swing and think there’s more power in there than we saw in college, enough for him to profile as a regular in a corner with some homers and OBP skills.
10. Parker Meadows, OF
Meadows is an all-around athlete with plus speed, a plus arm, and plus power potential if he can hit enough to get to it. The Tigers have worked to cut down the hand hitch he had in high school but it’s been a back-and-forth process; if he can get rid of that, he has the bat speed to hit, and then the power will come, and we’ll have an above-average regular in center. Or, the Tigers will, at least.
11. Joey Wentz, LHP
Wentz is progressing in his rehab from 2019 Tommy John surgery. The former competitive balance round pick, traded to Detroit for Shane Greene in 2019, gets huge extension over his front side and has shown above-average control with a three-pitch mix, including a curve and change that both could end up weapons for him.
12. Franklin Perez, RHP
Perez is healthy after throwing just 27 innings across 2018 and 2019, as well as none (obviously) in 2020, so maybe now the Tigers will see the prospect they thought they were getting from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade. He’s been up to 95 mph with promise to both the curveball and changeup, although even when healthy he was on tight pitch counts with the Astros (which, I might point out, didn’t exactly keep him from getting hurt).
13. Alex Faedo, RHP
Faedo, a former first-round pick out of the University of Florida, looks like a two-pitch reliever with a low-90s fastball and out pitch slider, lacking a weapon to get lefties out consistently. He will miss the entire 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.
14. Wenceel Perez, SS
Perez is talented but still needs to get stronger to improve the quality of his contact, and to develop more consistency on defense; he has the tools to be an above-average hitter with a little pop and to be an average or better defender at short. More reps would help as well, of course.
15. Jake Rogers, C
Rogers is a premium defensive catcher who frames well but can’t hit good fastballs at all, punching out in 40 percent of his plate appearances in the majors in 2019 and, perhaps as a result, spending 2020 at the alternate site. He’s a quality backup but he’ll be 26 in April and is unlikely to turn into more.
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16. Nick Quintana, 3B
Quintana is a plus defender at third but struggled badly with contact after the Tigers drafted him in 2019, and ended up struggling in the field that summer as well. He’s got pull power but needs to focus on contact and using the whole field.
17. Gage Workman, OF
Workman was very toolsy for a college guy, playing with Torkelson at ASU, potentially an above-average defender at third or second and with the strength to get to plus power. He has no load in his swing, however, which really cuts down on the power he can generate. The Tigers have a few of these guys who could have more power with alterations to their swings, and the right coach or coaches could help improve the value in this system in a short period of time.
18. Colt Keith, 3B
Keith was the Tigers’ fifth-round pick, and they signed him away from a commitment to Arizona State. He’s a very good athlete with a plus arm but had trouble with his swing last spring, despite good bat speed. He was also a decent pitching prospect in high school and could return to the mound if he doesn’t hit.
19. Bryant Packard, OF
Their fifth-round pick in 2019, Packard had a strong pro debut that summer, making a lot of contact, although his swing isn’t geared for power at all. He’s built well enough that a better swing, that makes more use of his lower half, could unlock some of that pop and get him at least to a fourth outfield role.
20. Akil Baddoo, OF
The Tigers took Baddoo, previously a top 10 prospect in the Twins’ system, in the Rule 5 draft in December, and I could easily see him making their club. Baddoo had Tommy John surgery early in 2019 and missed the rest of that season, then lost all of 2020 to the shutdown. He’s a plus defender in center, a plus runner, and until 2019 had shown annual improvements in his plate discipline, but struggled early in that season before the elbow injury.
One more prospect of note
Cuban outfielder Roberto Campos got a franchise-record $2.85 million bonus in 2019 but hasn’t had the chance to play in games yet. He has impressive power for his age and bat speed but has to get a more consistent swing and approach. He’s an average runner and will end up in an outfield corner, so the bat will carry him.
2021 impact
Mize, Skubal and Manning should all be in the Tigers’ rotation for most of the season, health permitting. Paredes is their regular third baseman. Rogers could be their backup catcher. Baddoo has to stick on the roster for the Tigers to retain his rights, but he’d be competing with Cameron for a job as a backup outfielder.
Sleeper
Meadows was my sleeper last year. I could just be stubborn — fun fact: I am stubborn — but I really think Daniel Cabrera can hit, and will bet on him doing so in pro ball this year.
(Photo of Mize: Raj Mehta / USA Today)
