The Twins’ system is still strong, but getting shallower after trades and some stalled development, although there should be more than enough here to fill spots on the major-league roster as needed with more prospects left over for further trades. They have more than a few prospects in their top 20 looking to get back on track this year after poor 2019 seasons.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Alex Kirilloff, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 7)
From the Top 100: Kirilloff is now on the very short list of players who made their major-league debuts in the postseason, also known as the Mark Kiger All-Stars, but unlike Kiger, Kirilloff will be back. He’s among the very best hitting prospects in baseball, thanks to a beautiful left-handed swing, an advanced approach to the strike zone and all-fields power. Kirilloff was a pitcher and outfielder in high school and missed the 2017 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he returned without a trace of rust and has continued to make hard contact at a high rate. His power was down in 2019 after he injured his wrist that spring, so look for a big power spike from him in 2021, whether he does so in Triple A or in the majors.
2. Royce Lewis, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 46)
From the Top 100: Lewis was the first overall pick in the 2017 draft but hit a bump in his ascent to the majors in 2019 after some offseason workouts led to a breakdown in his mechanics at the plate. Lewis is a plus-plus runner who projected to hit for average without a ton of power, but before the 2019 season, he adopted a high leg kick and big hand movement, but instead of driving the ball more he would bail out more often and make weak contact on stuff away. The Twins have worked with him to get him more online so he can work toward the middle of the field, making better quality contact and letting him use his legs more often. Lewis is rough at shortstop, with all of the athleticism and speed to play there but well below-average actions and instincts. The Twins have tried Lewis a little in center but plan to continue to work him at shortstop, which I think is smart from a value perspective but an uphill battle on the field. There’s a ton of natural ability here, and just restoring Lewis’ swing from 2018 would go a long way to demonstrating the type of player he can be. I see Lewis as a leadoff hitter with huge speed and plus defense in center, different from the player he was in high school but still a valuable player on both sides of the ball.
3. Jordan Balazovic, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 63)
From the Top 100: Balazovic has always shown really good feel for pitching, working well to all sides of the plate with advanced command for his age, and his physical projection has started to come out in the last two years, giving him at least mid-rotation potential. Balazovic, the Twins’ fifth-round pick in 2015, now sits 93-95 mph and can flash better, with an above-average hybrid breaking ball and a solid-average change-up. He’s a strike-thrower who has already shown a willingness to pitch in to hitters, and gets good deception from his delivery thanks to where he holds his glove. There’s still some more projection left here, and he worked in the weight room last summer to continue filling out. If he picks up more velocity or turns either of those secondary pitches into plus offerings, he could end up a No. 2 or better.
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4. Jhoan Duran, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 83)
From the Top 100: Duran is best known for his unusual out pitch, a splitter-sinker hybrid that carries the awkward “splinker” moniker, but he’s got enough of a complete arsenal that he’s more than just a one-pitch guy who’ll have to go to the bullpen. He’s 95-99 mph with his four-seamer and his curveball can be plus, although he doesn’t land the breaking ball as often as he will probably need to in the majors. He has starter size, listed at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, and his delivery should allow him to start as long as he maintains his tempo and avoids rushing through it, especially the way he gets on top of the ball to take advantage of his height. He has less probability to start than Balazovic, but has the better swing-and-miss pitch in that splinker, and might be closer to helping in the majors because that pitch can carry him as he works on the breaking ball and on improving his control and command.
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
Jeffers can catch well enough to stay back there, maybe lacking the arm you want in a regular, with a Three True Outcomes that should make him an above-average bat for the position, probably hitting in the .230-.240 range but with plenty of walks and 20-homer power.
6. Trevor Larnach, OF
Larnach was the Twins’ first-round pick in 2018 off some strong exit velocities and a big spring for Oregon State. He’s hit for average in pro ball with moderate power, mostly going the other way, which was a concern some scouts had on him in college as well — that he couldn’t pull pitches inside, and that would be how pitchers would attack him. He’s a below-average defender with a good arm, limited to the outfield corners, so he needs to get to 20-25 homers a year to be a good regular and for that, he’ll have to show he can handle the hard stuff inside he’ll see when he reaches the high minors.
7. Keoni Cavaco, SS/3B
Cavaco was their first-rounder in 2019, a high school infielder with plus power and an outstanding work ethic, but some mechanical issues to work out at the plate that he didn’t get to address much that summer because he was dealing with minor injuries. He can step in the bucket at the plate and can also try too hard to lift the ball, so the Twins have worked to level out his swing to improve his contact rates without killing his power. They plan to exhaust the possibility of Cavaco playing shortstop first, but he doesn’t look like he’ll have the range for it and is much better suited to third base, with the plus arm for it and very good hands. The best bet is that he ends up a 20-25 homer guy at third with above-average defense, a solid regular who’d be more if he ends up hitting for more average or sees a massive improvement in his walk rate.
8. Aaron Sabato, 1B
Sabato was the Twins’ first-round pick in 2020, a polished college bat who was draft-eligible as a sophomore due to his age but who may end up a designated hitter in the long term. That he’s here in their rankings reflects my confidence in his ability to hit, get on base, and get to above-average power — enough of all three to be an average regular or more, even if he ends up a DH in the end.
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9. Blayne Enlow, RHP
Enlow has been up to 97 mph with a great, athletic delivery and still more room to fill out. He throws strikes, gets his breaking ball up into the low 80s now, but so far hasn’t missed as many bats as you’d expect from his stuff and the way he hides the ball in his delivery. The Twins are hoping he’ll continue to add power to the breaking ball, and maybe get more depth on it, while they also work to improve the life on his fastball so it’ll play up to its velocity.
10. Matt Canterino, RHP
The Twins’ second-round pick in 2019 out of Rice, Canterino has stayed healthy so far in pro ball, showing three potentially above-average pitches in his fastball, slider and curveball, with good depth on both breakers. He does need to improve his change-up, which was more like a batting-practice fastball and wasn’t much use against lefties, but otherwise has good traits to end up a solid fourth starter.
11. Josh Winder, RHP
Winder showed the biggest improvement in stuff during the shutdown, getting up to 97 mph in instructs, with three secondary pitches including a breaking ball at 82-83 mph with good depth. The Twins’ seventh-round pick in 2018 has always thrown strikes, but never had this kind of velocity before. He only pitched in Low A in 2019 so he lacks the upper-level experience he should have by age 24, but he might come on very quickly once he gets that chance this year.
12. Gilberto Celestino, OF
Celestino is an above-average center fielder with great bat-to-ball skills who hits the ball surprisingly hard, but often not at the right angle to create more hits and extra bases. Acquired in the Ryan Pressly trade from Houston, he has just an 18 percent strikeout rate in his pro career and has cut his rate with each promotion. If he can fine-tune his swing to hit more line drives, he has everyday upside, maybe even a grade 55 regular ceiling.
13. Brent Rooker, OF
Rooker remade his swing before his last year at Mississippi State and makes hard contact when he gets to the ball, which summarizes his very brief time in the majors before a broken forearm ended his time after 21 plate appearances — with five strikeouts, but with half of his 14 balls hit into play leaving his bat at 96+ mph. He’s limited to left field and his ceiling is limited by his strikeouts, but he could end up an everyday guy or a very good bench bat without a big platoon split.
14. Matt Wallner, OF
Wallner was a two-way guy at Southern Miss whom scouts liked more on the mound, but he wanted to hit and the Twins have left him in the outfield for now. He’s power over hit, showing trouble with velocity up and generally with plate coverage, while he has average range in right with, of course, an outstanding arm. He has to hit to be something, but there’s always the mound as a fallback option, too.
15. Jose Miranda, 3B
Miranda had a miserable 2019 in High A, but looked better in instructs last fall and played 16 games in Puerto Rico over the winter, hitting .283/.362/.433 in 69 plate appearances. He’s always had a good swing and strong bat-to-ball skills, with the potential to be an above-average defender at third or maybe at second. Some scouts have said he’d be an excellent candidate to convert to catcher if he’s willing.
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16. Misael Urbina, OF
Urbina received a $2.75 million bonus from the Twins in 2018, based on his plus speed, potential for plus defense in center, and advanced feel for the barrel. He was extremely hard to strike out in 2019 as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League and showed some extra-base ability, although he has to get a lot stronger to get to average power. If he does and starts driving the ball more to the gaps, he could be an average to above-average regular.
17. Edwar Colina, RHP
Colina is a sinker/slider guy who’ll sit in the upper-90s and throws a ton of sliders, with high spin on both pitches, although his slider didn’t slide in his one disastrous big-league outing last year. He’s a pure reliever but could end up a good one, especially against right-handed batters.
18. Travis Blankenhorn, IF/OF
Blankenhorn has power and controlled the zone better in 2019, but he’s still a man in search of a position, and if it’s first base or DH or even left field, he needs to show more power in games, 25-30 homer power rather than the 15-20 he showed last season.
19. Dakota Chalmers, RHP
Chalmers has some of the best pure stuff in the organization, pitching in the mid- to upper-90s with a very high-spin, hard-diving curveball and a passable change-up, but he has never thrown strikes and his delivery doesn’t make me think he will. The first step toward helping him would be moving him to relief.
20. Wander Javier, SS
Javier received a $4 million bonus from the Twins in 2015 but he’s played just 130 games since, none above Low A, missing all of 2018 after surgery for a torn labrum and losing 2020 to the pandemic. He’s now 22, still a capable shortstop, still toolsy but not as quick-twitch as he was before the injuries, and he still has miles to go with the bat.
Others of note
Nick Gordon stalled out in Triple A, and missed nearly all of 2020 after contracting COVID-19, making it another lost year as the No. 5 overall pick in 2014 tries to at least reach the majors. … Outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez was their big signing in the 2019 international free agent period, taking a $2.5 million bonus, with a sweet left-handed swing and enough speed and arm to profile in center, but hasn’t taken any pro at-bats yet. … Right-hander Cole Sands throws strikes from a lower slot that means he works side to side more than up and down, which might limit him to fifth starter or swingman status.
2021 impact
Kirilloff should just get the left field job at this point, although they may hold him down for service-time reasons, maybe even playing Blankenhorn there first. Colina could spend part of the year in the bullpen.
Sleeper
Last year’s was Enlow, and he’s still on track for a leap, but Winder could come way out of left field (pun intended) and end up a top 100 guy next winter … or in the big leagues this fall.
(Photo of Alex Kirilloff: David Dermer / USA Today)
