White Sox 2021 prospect rankings: Keith Law on Chicago’s top 20

AZL White Sox first baseman Andrew Vaughn (20) prepares to catch a throw during an Arizona League game against the AZL Indians Blue on July 2, 2019 at Camelback Ranch in Goodyear, Arizona. AZL Indians Blue defeated the AZL White Sox 10-8. (Zachary Lucy/Four Seam Images via AP)
By Keith Law
Feb 12, 2021

The top end of this system remains strong even with multiple graduations, most recently Luis Robert, and there are now some really intriguing teenage arms in the lower levels of the system, but I would still say the system isn’t as deep as you’d like it to be as the team enters what should be a protracted run of contention in the majors.

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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.

1. Andrew Vaughn, 1B (Top 100 rank: No. 10)

From the Top 100: The best pure hitter in the 2019 draft class, Vaughn showed exceptional patience and contact rates in his last two years at Cal, and carried that over into a pro debut where the White Sox pushed him to High A by the end of the summer. Vaughn has a simple right-handed swing that gets good loft for line-drive power, so though he’s barely 6 feet tall (if that), he’s going to hit 20-25 homers in the big leagues, if not more. The main question on Vaughn is his position; he’s capable at first base but not great over there, while the White Sox have worked him out at third both to try to get him some versatility and improve his agility back at first. The hot corner seems unlikely, but even at first, Vaughn offers a high floor with his patience and hit tool, with the upside of .400+ OBPs and above-average power to make him a good No. 2 or 4 hitter in a championship lineup.

2. Michael Kopech, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 53)

From the Top 100: Kopech opted out of the 2020 season, which gives him one more shot at these rankings before he likely loses his eligibility early in the 2021 campaign. He threw 14 big-league innings in 2018 before his elbow barked and he had to undergo Tommy John surgery, missing all of 2019, but all reports are that his stuff had returned, with a mid-90s fastball and two potential plus pitches in the slider and changeup. He’s modeled himself after Noah Syndergaard in his delivery and conditioning, and he’d been healthy before the torn elbow ligament, with the size and athleticism to be a 200-inning guy. We just need to see him on a mound to assess his progress post-surgery, which may come in Triple A after the White Sox added Lance Lynn via trade this winter, and to see if he can turn either of his breaking balls into a consistent swing-and-miss option. He still has the ceiling of an ace, even though his timeline has been shifted forward by a few years.

3. Nick Madrigal, 2B

Madrigal did in the majors pretty much what he’s done everywhere: make a lot of soft contact. He hit .340/.376/.369, with only three doubles and no other extra-base hits in 109 plate appearances, and even that line is going to be hard for him to repeat given that it took an unsustainable .365 BABIP (well above anything he did in the minors) to get to it. He is an exceptional contact hitter, with great hand-eye and a short swing, but the swing path is flat and he’s so small that he doesn’t hit anything hard — he didn’t have a single barrel in 96 balls hit into play, and he had just one hit that went past the outfielders. He plays solid-average defense at second and showed 55 to 60 speed, so he might beat out a few more infield hits and add some value on the bases, but this player profile doesn’t offer any kind of upside beyond a soft regular.

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4. Garrett Crochet, LHP

Crochet was the first player from last year’s draft to reach the majors, where he pumped some serious gas, averaging 100.1 mph on his fastball with a huge average spin rate of 2,503, although that’s pretty much all he threw — 85 percent of his pitches were fastballs. Crochet started at the University of Tennessee but had trouble throwing strikes and didn’t show an average second pitch beyond the fastball, so the strong consensus in the draft was that he had a high probability of ending up a reliever in pro ball — but perhaps a good one because he’d throw so hard. The White Sox are working to develop his slider, on which he’s had trouble getting good spin or tilt, but his arm speed should at least give him an average one in time. Crochet started the year hurt at Tennessee and ended it with a sore forearm in October, so perhaps a bullpen role would be the best way to bring him along in 2021 even if the White Sox believe they can make him a starter.

5. Matt Thompson, RHP

Thompson was the star of instructs for the White Sox, getting up to 96 mph and sitting 91-93 mph most outings, with projection left and some of the best athleticism of any pitcher in the system. Chicago also had him at their alternate site so he could be around some big-league pitchers and they could help him work on conditioning and adding some good muscle. He’s flashed an above-average breaking ball and has worked on a change-up. He’s tinkered some with his delivery, adding a pause to try to fool with hitters’ timing. He has mid-rotation upside, with a chance to be an impact reliever if starting doesn’t work out.

6. Jared Kelley, RHP

Kelley was their second-round pick in 2020 but signed for first-round money as one of the top high school pitchers in the draft. Kelley is a prototypical Texas high school arm, a big, strong kid listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and probably bigger than that already, who’s been up to 98 mph with an above-average change-up. He was out of shape early last spring and has struggled to find a consistent breaking ball, both of which likely contributed to his being available for Chicago in the second round; I think with his arm speed and the White Sox’s history of working with pitchers they can get him to at least a fringe-average slider and make him a real three-pitch, innings-eating starter.

7. Jonathan Stiever, RHP

Stiever’s big-league debut was kind of disastrous, as he worked way too much in the middle of the zone with both his fastball and slider, which hitters rather enjoyed. He has plus control of mostly average stuff, with a curveball that was plus in the minors but that he barely used in the big leagues. He’s better than what he showed, but he also has to locate his fastball and slider away from the heart of the strike zone, as neither pitch is good enough to miss bats there.

8. Jake Burger, 3B/1B

Burger hasn’t taken an at-bat in a pro game since 2017 because of three leg injuries and the shutdown but played in a collegiate summer league in 2020 and spent time working on his agility and conditioning to improve his odds of staying at third base. The former first-rounder had strong exit velocities in college and good bat-to-ball skills, but when I say most hitters just need to play, that applies double to Burger.

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9. Andrew Dalquist, RHP

Dalquist and Thompson were over-slot guys for the White Sox in their 2019 draft, a clear strategy to target a pair of projectable high school arms, with Thompson bringing more upside and Dalquist more polish. Dalquist has average velocity but good shape to the fastball, and his arm slot is well suited to throwing breaking stuff, with good spin on his curveball already. He needs to add strength to boost his velocity on all his stuff, and his understanding of pitching and present command are both strong. He has lower upside than Thompson but a little more probability of remaining a starter.

10. Micker Adolfo, OF

Adolfo is supposed to be healthy and ready to go after two years interrupted by injuries, including a ligament tear that required Tommy John surgery, although his attempt to play in the Dominican Winter League stalled when he couldn’t get any playing time. Adolfo has huge power and has improved his approach at the plate to the point where he can hit enough to get to it, probably as a low-average power guy with enough walks to keep his OBP up, and at least average defense in a corner.

11. Luis González, OF

González appeared in three games in the majors last year, getting two plate appearances, after a summer of working with the White Sox coaches to restore his old stance and mechanics at the plate. He’s back to the toe tap he used earlier in his career and his bat path is now better geared toward contact, since he’s never going to be a power hitter. He can really play center field, and if he keeps his OBP up and goes gap to gap he has an outside chance to be a regular.

12. Blake Rutherford, OF

The White Sox are trying to get Rutherford, a first-round pick in 2016 on the basis of what appeared to be an advanced bat who projected to hit and hit for power, to drive the ball more, as he’s never been able to make consistently hard contact since entering pro ball. Between that and his struggles against left-handed pitching, he’s probably a platoon corner outfielder at best.

13. Jimmy Lambert, RHP

Lambert has No. 4 starter potential if healthy, and showed a strong three-pitch mix in his two brief major-league appearances in 2020, his first since mid-2019 Tommy John surgery. He has good depth on his high-spin curveball and good deception on his change-up. Chicago shut him down after those two outings with a forearm strain, but he’s expected to be good to go for spring training.

14. Gavin Sheets, 1B/OF

The White Sox have tried Sheets in the outfield to give him some versatility and to avoid a further logjam at first base. Sheets has had strong exit velocities in the minors but it hasn’t translated to power or even consistently high averages, and he hasn’t hit lefties either, so even with the possibility of left field his ceiling is probably that of a bench bat.

15. Bryan Ramos, 3B

Ramos signed in 2018 for $300,000 and has emerged as one of Chicago’s best international prospects in some time, with other clubs already asking about him in trades. He’s a third baseman by trade with a plus arm and natural feel for the position, although he might also be able to handle second base. At the plate, he takes a furious hack but didn’t strike out that much as a 17-year-old in the Arizona League in 2019; he projects to plus power as his 6-foot-2 frame fills out, but at some point he’s going to have to shorten things up, at least when he’s behind in the count. He’s mostly upside at this point, but you can see the ingredients of a regular (maybe an above-average one) several years down the line.

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16. José Rodriguez, SS

Rodriguez has a good swing from the right side that has led to some surprising power, although his bat speed might be enough to help him get to 15-plus homers a season at his peak. He’s a shortstop now with good hands and instincts, although his arm is closer to average and he may not have the speed or agility to stay there long-term. It’ll come down more to his bat, and particularly his approach, which right now is too aggressive but could be a real asset for him if he works the count better.

17. Lenyn Sosa, SS

Sosa is a solid defender at short with great footwork, good hands and an above-average arm, with a real chance to stay there even as he fills out. His swing can get long and he doesn’t have great bat speed, but he’s flashed doubles power already and I think there’s more power in the tank. He might be a good utility guy down the road.

18. Yolbert Sánchez, SS

Sánchez signed for $2.5 million in 2019 after defecting from Cuba, where he had a strong reputation as a defender but hadn’t done much with the bat, making contact but mostly hitting singles. He’s struggling with conditioning in pro ball and has to maintain that to stay at shortstop, where he has great hands but needs to stay fit to have the agility and speed for the position. He puts together good at-bats and could end up a solid hitter for average without power, although that would mean his only chance to be a regular is if he stays at short.

19. Norge Vera, RHP

Vera signed with the White Sox for $1.5 million in January, and the Cuban right-hander, who’ll turn 21 in June, has been up to 97 mph in the past with a loose, quick arm, some deception, and a high 3/4 slot that puts him in good position to get depth on his curveball. He’d worked more around average in workouts before agreeing to terms with the White Sox, and everything beyond his arm strength is still inconsistent.

20. Zack Burdi, RHP

Burdi has had Tommy John surgery and major knee surgery but still throws hard, averaging just short of 98 mph in the majors in 2020. His fastball is flat, however, and hitters squared it up often in the majors, even though it has a high spin rate and he tried to throw it at the top of the zone. His slider is plus and he’s been experimenting with a new change-up, but he has to show he can use the fastball without getting smoked.


Others of note

Outfielder Bryce Bush struggled with an aggressive promotion in 2019 but still has the power/speed combination that made him intriguing after his 2018 debut; the White Sox have worked to get his mechanics more consistent, keeping him on line toward the pitcher and encouraging him to use his lower half to get the most out of his power. … Outfielder Yoelqui Céspedes, Yoenis’ younger brother, signed with Chicago for $2.05 million but he’s barely played since Cuba’s 2017-18 season and he has a long swing that’s pretty but takes a long time to get him from his set position to contact. It’s not surprising that he struck out nearly 30 percent of the time in the independent Can-Am League the last two seasons. … Outfielder Chase Krogman has some pop and gets praise for his work ethic and gamer attitude; the 34th-round pick in 2019 could end up a platoon bat in either corner.

2021 impact

Madrigal is their second baseman, Crochet could start in the bullpen, and Kopech could work out of the pen or join the rotation later this year. Stiever is a candidate for a rotation spot if someone gets hurt.

Sleeper

It was Thompson last year, and it is still Thompson this year.

(Photo of Andrew Vaughn: Zachary Lucy / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)

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Keith Law

Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw