Atlanta’s pipeline of talent is finally starting to slow, thanks in no small part to the penalties that have kept them out of the international free-agent market for the last several cycles. That said they still have a substantial pool of high-end prospects near the top, and some clever drafting, especially in 2019, brought in a passel of high-risk, high-reward guys to try to fill the gap.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Cristian Pache, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 3)
From the Top 100:Pache is an 80 defender in center who draws comparisons to Andruw Jones, and not just because of the Atlanta connection. He’s a plus runner with plus raw power who didn’t homer at all until his third year in pro ball, seeing his power increase in the last two seasons toward an ultimate projection of 20-25 homers a year. His reads and range are at the top end of the scale, and he has a huge arm to go along with the glove. All that remains for Pache beyond further physical maturation is working on his approach at the plate, where he’s been very aggressive, making plenty of contact but limiting his OBP and not always waiting for a pitch he can drive. That defense alone will give him a very long career in the majors, but a 25-homer/25-steal center fielder with top-of-the-line defense and even a .330 OBP is a star.
2. Ian Anderson, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 15)
From the Top 100:Anderson has long been a top prospect, as the No. 3 pick in the 2016 draft and the No. 27 prospect in baseball last winter, but he was better than anyone expected when he saw the majors last year, thanks to a changeup that big-league hitters could not figure out. Anderson’s fastball velocity is above average, but the pitch doesn’t have great spin, so he uses the changeup heavily as a swing-and-miss pitch (hitters whiffed on 20 percent of the changeups he threw) and to keep hitters off the fastball. His curveball is above average despite a low spin rate because that increases its deception, giving him one of the larger deviations between the spin-based movement and the observed movement on the pitch of any curveball in the majors. Even with a fastball that plays below its velocity, he has two real offspeed weapons in his quiver, pitches aggressively, and is built to eat innings, the way you’d want a No. 2 or better starter to do.
3. Braden Shewmake, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 64)
From the Top 100: When Shewmake came out of Texas A&M in 2019, scouts’ expectations were that he’d have to move to another position, either third base or possibly center field, where he’d looked very good during BP and infield/outfield. Now he’s almost a lock to stay at shortstop after a strong showing there in Low A after he was drafted, and he worked at the alternate site with Atlanta in 2020, with a bat that could make him a quiet star over there. Shewmake has good bat-to-ball skills with loose hands at the plate, but his swing is handsy and doesn’t make much use of his lower half, so even as he fills out — and he has a lot of room to do so — he may not automatically add power without some mechanical changes to make him less linear and more rotational. As is, he might hit .300 thanks to his high contact rates, and he’s an above-average runner who’ll add some value on the bases. All that with reliable, solid-average defense at short points to a regular, and a great pick for Atlanta with their second first-round selection in the 2019 draft.
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4. William Contreras, C (Top 100 rank: No. 70)
From the Top 100:Contreras got a cup of coffee in 2020, going 4 for 10 in four games, despite having just 60 games above A ball coming into the season. He’s an exceptional athlete with good strength, moving better than you might expect from his stocky build. He’s got a great, easy swing with good follow-through that generates hard contact, and despite being young for his levels he’s posted low strikeout rates. Atlanta has had him work with catching instructor Sal Fasano, and Contreras has come a long way in his defensive skills, where he might end up an above-average defender there. The bat is the part that’s special, where he might become a star, and he’ll probably go to Triple A now at age 23, so he’ll be around the right age for his level for the first time and we should see more of that hard contact turn into doubles and home run power.
5. Shea Langeliers, C (Just Missed)
From the Top 100: Langeliers is a premium defensive catcher with some pop who never hit for much average while at Baylor or on the Cape, and then hit .255/.310/.343 after an aggressive post-draft assignment to full-season Rome. He looked good early in spring training before the shutdown and continued to impress with the bat at Atlanta’s alternate site, but we have to see this come through in games against real pitching before we can buy into it. He still has a high floor as a major-league backup and doesn’t have to hit that much to be a regular given his defense and 15-20 homer power.
6. Tucker Davidson, LHP
Davidson has the highest floor of Atlanta’s cadre of pitching prospects after Anderson, as he throws strikes with a four-pitch mix, although he doesn’t really have a plus offspeed pitch. He’ll work at 92-97 mph with a solid-average curveball and changeup, maybe a little better on the curve, while he’s added a slider that he locates well to the corner down and away from left-handed batters. None of them is a definite swing-and-miss offering, but he can change speeds and eye levels well with everything and should still miss enough bats to be a league-average starter.
7. Drew Waters, OF
Waters is a very good athlete who has hit for high batting averages in the minors despite the absence of any approach and a rising rate of swings-and-misses as he’s faced better pitching. He has good hand-eye coordination and has shown he can at least square up a lot of inferior pitching, but one of scouts’ main knocks on him is that he doesn’t hit better quality stuff. He’s an above-average to plus runner, and has at least above-average raw power, although neither has appeared in games yet. He could play center but hasn’t gotten many opportunities with Pache often on the same roster, and that might make Waters a better trade candidate to a team that has an opening up the middle for him.
8. Jared Shuster, LHP
Atlanta’s first-rounder in 2020, Shuster is a fastball/changeup guy with good ride on the former at 92-94 mph and a potential grade-70 pitch in the latter. He’s been working on the breaking ball and at least gets on top of the ball well through his delivery to get depth on it, although it’s still a clear third pitch for him. His control ticked way up last spring before the shutdown, pushing him into the first round; that plus the out pitch in his changeup should be good enough to make him a fourth starter.
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9. Kyle Muller, LHP
Muller also worked on a slider last offseason and during the shutdown, as did Davidson, and in Muller’s case it gave him a second weapon he could throw for a strike beyond his fastball. He’s huge, 6-foot-7, 250 pounds and an imposing presence, but he was mostly working with the fastball before this past year. He walked way too many guys in Double A in part because he couldn’t land anything else for strikes. He may still be a reliever, but his odds to start have gone up quite a bit.
10. Freddy Tarnok, RHP
Tarnok is one of the best athletes among Atlanta’s pitching prospects, a former two-way guy in high school who hadn’t pitched a ton and originally wasn’t keen on moving to the mound full time. He’s been 94-97 mph in the last year and he can show high spin on the curveball, although it’s not consistent, nor is his changeup. He’ll pitch at age 22 all year, but in terms of his development he’s more like a 19- or 20-year-old, with a ton of upside left because he’s so athletic and is just learning to work with this new velocity.
11. Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP
De La Cruz has made a gradual ascent in the system since he first signed in 2015, but his fastball and slider have both improved to the point that he may have two plus pitches and at least profiles as a good reliever. He’ll work in the mid-90s, but the slider can show plus or better and is one of the best sliders in Atlanta’s organization, giving him more of a swing-and-miss pitch against righties and the potential to pitch in the major-league bullpen this year if they need him or decide not to let him continue starting.
12. Patrick Weigel, RHP
Weigel has been up to 99 mph in the past but was 92-95 mph in his lone big-league appearance last year, showing a hard changeup and fringy slider as well. He’s got the size to start, but his delivery has a couple of things that indicated he might go to the bullpen, like recoil and a late arm, which seems the most likely outcome now because he still doesn’t have an average breaker.
13. Michael Harris, OF
Harris has as much upside as any hitter in this system, with 60 speed and 55/60 power and a plus arm to boot, and he destroyed the complex-level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut. The main question about Harris was how good his approach and pitch recognition were when Atlanta took him out of high school in 2019, and we won’t really have any more insight on that until he gets to play in full-season ball this year. He could be a 25 homer/20 steal center fielder with plus defense if he maxes out his potential.
14. Victor Vodnik, RHP
Vodnik can show two plus pitches in his fastball and changeup, and his slider has been improving, enough of a package that Atlanta brought him to their alternate site at the end of the summer even though he was still just 20 years old. He’s barely 6 feet tall, and there’s an industry bias against 6-foot (or shorter) right-handers, but with this potential for a three-pitch mix along with a great delivery, he has real mid-rotation starter upside.
15. Bryce Ball, 1B
Ball is huge, 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds, but plays a very capable first base, moving around better than you’d expect … oh, who am I kidding? He’s here because he has plus-plus power and a good idea of the strike zone. He’s 22, so he needs to go out and do it at least in High A this year, but his pro debut after the draft in 2019 was promising and the word from Atlanta’s alternate site was that he looked very comfortable against more advanced pitching.
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16. Tyler Owens, RHP
Owens was sitting 94-96 mph and touching 98 mph when last we saw him in 2019 with a promising breaking ball, needing work on his slider and more generally on command. He’s only about 5-foot-10 so he’ll face questions about durability (irrelevant) and fastball plane (we’ll see), but he already has a big-league fastball at age 20.
17. Spencer Strider, RHP
Strider missed 2019 after Tommy John surgery but returned this spring to hit 97 mph for Clemson, leading Atlanta to take him in the fourth round. He hit 99 mph at the alternate site with good characteristics on the fastball, so while his other stuff is a work in progress — neither his slider nor changeup is an average pitch yet — his fastball seems likely to miss a lot of bats in any role.
18. Jesse Franklin, OF
Franklin broke his collarbone while skiing last offseason and didn’t play in the spring of 2020 for Michigan, but Atlanta took him in the third round in the hope that they can unlock some more power. He really collapses his back side, and keeping him more upright through contact might help him hit for more average as well as to get to more power. His arm is fringy but he moves well enough to be a 55 defender in left.
19. Makhi Backstrom, 1B
Backstrom is cut from a similar cloth as Ball, as he’s 6-foot-5, 220 pounds and limited to first base, but with huge power; he punched out about a third of the time in the Gulf Coast League last year but was a young draftee, turning 18 after instructs in October.
20. Vaughn Grissom, SS
Grissom played high school baseball with Tigers prospect Riley Greene in Florida, and thus got plenty of exposure during their shared senior year. Grissom has a great hitter’s frame, at 6-foot-3, and some potential to hit for average; he’s a shortstop now but will probably move to second or third, or even possibly an outfield corner depending on how he fills out. It’s going to come down to the bat more than anything else.
Others of note
Right-hander Bryce Elder, their fifth-round pick in 2020, doesn’t have anything plus but he throws a ton of strikes and gets some deception out of a high arm slot, and with a broad arsenal he has a chance to start. … Terone (Trey) Harris was a senior sign out of Missouri in 2018, then raked at every level for two years until he finally slowed down in Double A (33 strikeouts and 4 walks in 154 plate appearances). His recognition of secondary stuff isn’t great, and he doesn’t have any plus tools; he just plays hard and does put the ball in play a ton, so he could get to the big leagues as a fourth outfielder. … Alex Jackson is still rookie eligible and got his first major-league hit in 2020; he could have a decent career as a backup catcher and bench bat, but we haven’t seen the work he’s apparently done on his swing translate into different results.
2021 impact
Anderson is in the rotation, and Pache could end up in the outfield for all or much of the season. Weigel, Jackson and De La Cruz could all surface in part-time roles.
Sleeper
Last year’s was Vodnik; that still applies, but I feel even better about Michael Harris making the leap this year.
(Photo of Pache: Kim Klement / USA Today)
