The Brewers built a contender, coming within a win of a pennant, and they’re still a threat thanks to homegrown starters like Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but there’s a lot less help coming from the farm in 2021 and they have fewer assets to trade. Their 2019 international free-agent class could be the savior of the system.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Garrett Mitchell, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 95)
From the Top 100: Mitchell had the tools to go in the top 10 in the 2020 draft, but he’s a Type 1 diabetic and many executives were uncomfortable using a high pick on a position player with that condition. (There have been several MLB pitchers with Type 1 diabetes, including Brandon Morrow, who was a top-10 overall pick in 2006.) Mitchell is at least a 70 runner with plus range in center, and he has good hand-eye coordination, rarely striking out in college but often mistiming so that he doesn’t always hit the ball as hard as he should. I said at the time of the draft that his defense and speed would make him a regular even with just a 45 hit tool and 45 power, which is still a realistic projection for him. If he gets that timing issue at the plate worked out and can use his speed more out of the box, he could get to a 55 hit tool and be a borderline star.
2. Brice Turang, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 96)
From the Top 100: Turang spent the summer at the Brewers’ alternate site and logged a lot of at-bats against the Brewers’ best left-handed pitching prospects, including hard-throwing Antoine Kelly and the more polished Aaron Ashby, looking good even against their better breaking stuff. Turang is starting to drive the ball out to the gaps more even though he probably has another 10-15 pounds to gain, probably profiling as a low-average power hitter once he’s filled out, with average bat speed but a history in high school of showing good rotation and loft in his finish to eventually hit for more power. He’s a plus defender at short and a plus runner who has excellent instincts on the bases. We’ll see what type of hitter he is in games this year — he was a high-contact guy in 2019, a more strikeout-prone guy with some more power in high school — but either way he’d project as a solid regular or more at a position where any offense is a bonus.
3. Antoine Kelly, LHP
Kelly is absurdly athletic, and was in the upper 90s in junior college, but didn’t have the secondary stuff or feel for pitching when the Brewers took him in the second round in 2019. He’s still throwing gas but now has a potentially plus changeup and a viable breaking ball in his slider, while gaining better control and coordination on the mound. He’s thrown strikes before, but his command lagged, and he had never had to work on things like holding runners before the Brewers got him. He has the most upside of the trio of lefties in their top 10, although he’s also the furthest away from the majors.
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4. Ethan Small, LHP
Small doesn’t have the giant fastball of Kelly or Aaron Ashby, but he’s the most advanced pitcher of the three because he messes with hitters’ timing so well with his above-average changeup and throws a ton of strikes. His breaking ball is his weakest pitch, but he’s been effective against lefties anyway because he steps toward the first-base side of the mound and cuts off his landing. I think he’s a fourth starter without much variance in possible outcomes.
5. Eduardo Garcia, SS
Garcia is a strong defensive shortstop who’s starting to fill out some physically, as he was 6-foot-2 but wiry when he signed in 2019, with a loose, contact-oriented swing that has some loft for eventual power. He has quick hands and above-average bat speed; his swing path can be inconsistent, but that could resolve with greater strength. In the field, he shows soft hands and good actions, more than enough to stay at short and potentially be a plus defender there at his peak. He needs to gain a lot of strength and work on keeping his weight back, with the upside of an occasional All-Star depending on his bat.
6. Mario Feliciano, C
Feliciano can hit — I’m going to die on that hill — and he can throw with a quick release. He’s worked with Charlie Greene, Brewers catching coordinator, to improve his receiving, with promising results on the side in 2020. He makes hard contact, but when we last saw him in 2019, he struggled to recognize pitches in High A as a 20-year-old. The bar for an everyday catcher is low and he does have the hit/power tools to be a regular there even with a .290 OBP, which is about where he is now. With improvement there, or a big jump on the receiving side, he has a 55 ceiling.
7. Hedbert Perez, OF
Perez, the son of former outfielder Robert Perez, was so advanced as a hitter that the Brewers brought him to their alternate site last summer even though he was just 17. He’s already showing maturity at the plate and the ability to drive the ball to the gaps. The left-handed hitter has a balanced swing with strong hands, and the ball really flies off his bat. He’s going to be a corner outfielder and will probably have to work to avoid getting too big for the position, but the bat could be special.
8. Zack Brown, RHP
Brown was so bad in 2019 that it’s easy to forget him, but he was much better at the alternate site in 2020, and his curveball seemed like it was back after he’d lost it in much of that disastrous season in Triple A. He’s 92-95 with that plus curveball and the potential for an average slider and change. He had trouble dealing with adversity during games in that awful year as well, trying to throw it through a wall sometimes when things didn’t go right, but that’s a maturity issue and the Brewers think he’s gotten through it. He really should be on the major-league staff in some role this year — returning to Triple A won’t help, and the way that Woodruff and Burnes progressed in 2020 in the majors makes me think that’s the place for Brown to develop, too.
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9. Aaron Ashby, LHP
Ashby has made some incremental progress with his delivery, although he has more work to do there to be able to repeat it enough to get to enough command to make him a long-term starter. He does have three pitches that can all show plus in the fastball, change and curve, but strikes have been an issue in the past, and it’s hard for him to get to that high release point every time, or even keep his eye on the target, to get him to average control. He does have a mid-rotation or better ceiling based solely on his arsenal, but a lower probability because of the delivery and command/control.
10. Carlos Rodriguez, OF
Rodriguez has shown a real knack for getting the bat to the ball and hitting line drives to the outfield, a slap hitter with enough strength to potentially hit for a high average and get more out of it because he’s a plus runner. He’s played center but is going to end up in a corner, where his bat might still play even with grade 40 power because he’s going to put the ball in play so often.
11. Micah Bello, OF
Bello, a Hawaii native, was impressive in instructs and may be fulfilling the potential the Brewers saw when they took the then-17-year-old in the second round in 2018. Bello is a plus runner who had power upside but didn’t get the ball in the air enough in short-season. He started doing that more in the fall and was better defensively in center — eventually getting a concussion by crashing into the wall to make a play — which would move him from a potential fourth outfielder to a potential regular who might get to a 55 depending on his OBP skills.
12. Tristen Lutz, OF
Lutz has made hard contact with strong exit velocities since he first signed, but it hasn’t translated well into results, in part because of the swing decisions he’s making that don’t get him the pitches he can drive most efficiently. He has played a lot of center field but has to go to right. He needs to go to Double A this year and show progress in those choices he’s making — it’s not just contact rate, but getting to the quality contact we know he can make — because all his value will come from his bat.
13. Jeferson Quero, C
Quero really impressed the Brewers in instructs, as the Venezuelan catcher has started to fill out physically and took high-quality at-bats in the fall. He has a loose, easy swing and shows line-drive power the other way while hitting well against better velocity for an 18-year-old. He’s a no-doubt catcher with a plus arm and good receiving skills. He signed in July 2019, so he hasn’t had any pro at-bats yet, but if he carries what he did in the fall into the season in 2021 he’ll be among the best teenage catching prospects in MLB.
14. Freddy Zamora, SS
Zamora was the Brewers’ second-round pick in 2020 while he was rehabbing from ACL surgery, so he wasn’t able to play at all in instructs. He has the actions and hands to stay in the middle infield, with a 50/55 arm that might play at short if he can be more consistent on routine plays. He has good feel to hit but won’t have more than 45 power. He was suspended by the University of Miami at the start of 2020 for violation of team rules, reportedly for skipping class.
15. Jesus Parra, 3B
Parra was young for the 2018-19 international signing class and won’t turn 19 until the end of this August. He has an easy, balanced swing, slightly barring his lead arm but getting the bat head to the zone in time so far, while he impressed the Brewers with improved defense at third base in instructs.
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16. Luis Medina, OF
Not to be confused with the Yankees pitcher of the same name, Medina is a Venezuelan outfielder with a pretty left-handed swing that should lead to a solid batting average/power combination, probably not plus in either. He has played center but profiles as a corner outfielder in the not-too-distant future. He signed in 2019 for $1.3 million, so he hasn’t played in any games yet either.
17. Corey Ray, OF
Ray has been tinkering with his swing for several years now, settling on one version in 2019 that had him selling out for power at the expense of any other contact. As a result, he wasn’t in the mix for a call-up last year even though he was already 25. We’ll see him in the majors this year at some point, but he has to find a swing that balances his plus power with more contact, which would also allow his plus speed to play up. His lack of defensive versatility hasn’t helped either, as he’s going to have to play left in the majors. He’s one of the more disappointing, puzzling draft prospects I’ve ever seen, a college guy with tools and performance who has underperformed almost from the start in the minors.
18. Nick Kahle, C
Kahle is a little undersized but can catch and throw with some contact ability at the plate, and he helped himself by playing a little last summer in independent ball and for Brisbane in the Australian League. He’s probably a backup if he could turn a few more of those balls in play into hits.
19. Joe Gray, OF
Gray is strong with a cannon for an arm and the potential for grade 60-plus power, but injuries and a poor approach at the plate limited his progress before 2020.
20. Alec Bettinger, RHP
A senior sign out of the University of Virginia in 2017, Bettinger has racked up better strikeout rates in pro ball, up through Double A, than he did in college, with much lower walk rates, so the Brewers added him to the 40-man this offseason. He doesn’t have a plus pitch, with a basket of 50s and maybe a 55 here or there, but does it with command and changing speeds. He could be a fifth starter, because he has the changeup to get lefties out, too, or a useful multi-inning reliever.
2021 impact
Probably nobody, although Ray might get a call-up since he’s on the roster and will play at 26 this year.
Sleeper
Last year’s was Garcia, and he still has that substantial upside, with a big jump from last year’s rankings to this year’s after more folks saw him in instructs. I’d put Quero and Bello just behind him on the Brewers Sleeper Prospect Rankings (coming soon!).
(Photo of Garrett Mitchell: Katharine Lotze / Getty Images)
