The Cardinals seem to develop talent as well as any organization in baseball, which might be why they feel so comfortable rolling the dice in the draft on high-risk, high-reward prospects. They also have really done well behind the plate, developing enough catchers to trade Carson Kelly for Paul Goldschmidt, with plenty more still in place to keep the train rolling once Yadier Molina retires.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Dylan Carlson, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 9)
From the Top 100: Carlson was the talk of spring training last March, with much debate over whether he should make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, but the shutdown put the kibosh on that idea and delayed Carlson’s major-league debut until mid-August. He’s a disciplined hitter for his age and struggled in the majors in part because he was too patient, falling behind in the count more often than he’d get ahead, taking a more passive approach than he had in the minors. St. Louis sent him back to their alternate site for two weeks in September, and he returned for his best stretch of the short season with more damage in hitter’s or even counts, albeit in a tiny sample. Carlson is an above-average runner who can handle center field but may be best served as a plus defender in right, for which he has plenty of arm strength. He should be a strong OBP guy who eventually gets to 25 homers a year along with that strong defense, and he has star-level upside that depends mostly on where his hit tool ends up.
2. Matthew Liberatore, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 50)
From the Top 100: Liberatore’s trade to St. Louis last winter was a surprise at the time, but the trade netted Tampa Bay Randy Arozarena, without whom they probably wouldn’t have won the second pennant in franchise history, so with a bit of hindsight it makes more sense that the Rays would give up one of their top pitching prospects. Liberatore is a great athlete who can touch the mid-90s and gets big spin on his curveball, while also mixing in a slider and changeup, with the slider especially promising given how new the pitch is for him. One concern on Liberatore is that his delivery doesn’t provide that much deception, an issue many pitchers with premium stuff and very pretty mechanics have had. He’s also had some trouble keeping the delivery together with men on base, although that’s easier to remedy than insufficient deception. If hitters see his fastball too well, that’s a bigger concern, because it has sunk some talented pitchers, including Luke Hochevar, Casey Kelly and Jeff Hoffman. We’ll see if St. Louis can find a way to keep hitters off Liberatore’s fastball, because the rest of the package looks like a No. 2 starter in the making.
3. Nolan Gorman, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 57)
From the Top 100: Gorman has grade-80 power with a lot of swing and miss in his game, but that formula has worked well for many hitters, notably Joey Gallo, who wouldn’t have had careers 10 or 20 years ago. For Gorman, as with those hitters, the key is getting to enough contact so the power plays. The Cardinals were aggressive with Gorman in 2019, sending the 19-year-old to High A in the middle of the season, and his strikeout rate crept up to 31 percent — within tolerable limits, but it can’t get any higher while he’s still facing minor-league pitching. He just swings hard, even with two strikes, also like Gallo always has. Gorman worked extensively with coach José Oquendo at St. Louis’ alternate site, giving the Cardinals more reason to think he can stay at third base in the long term; he may never be more than fringy there but has enough athleticism to stick. He has a 40-homer bat if he just keeps that contact rate at 70 percent or better.
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4. Ivan Herrera, C (Top 100 rank: No. 68)
From the Top 100: Herrera is the heir apparent behind the plate in St. Louis, even with Andrew Knizner, a capable hitter, ahead of him on the depth chart, as Herrera has more potential on both sides of the ball. Signed out of Panama in 2016, Herrera has an excellent approach at the plate, rarely striking out and working the count well to try to get to pitches he can drive. He can really throw, a credit to the Cardinals’ development staff after they worked with him on arm strength and his throwing motion. He has nabbed 33 percent of opposing runners since he entered pro ball, and when he played in the Mexican Winter League this offseason he threw out 11 of 21 for a 52 percent success rate. He continues to improve behind the plate to the point where he’s going to be an asset on both sides of the ball, and I still believe there’s more power in this bat that we may not see for a few more years.
5. Zack Thompson, LHP
Thompson had easy top-10 overall stuff in college but failed a physical out of high school after the Rays drafted him and had the Kentucky Forearm Flu while in Lexington, so he slipped to 19th overall. He’s got a plus fastball and curveball, still needs to work on his changeup and may continue to battle arm issues due to the late pronation in his delivery. If he stays healthy, though, this is electric stuff from the left side, and he has the weapons and control to start.
6. Jhon Torres, OF
Torres came over in the mid-2018 deal that sent Oscar Mercado to Cleveland. He has gotten a lot bigger and stronger since then, to the point where he looks like he’s going to be a power-hitting right fielder who can bat in the middle of a lineup. He’s very strong and has fast hands, rotating his hips to get good loft in his finish. He was overmatched in Peoria early in 2019 but played well in the Appy League with solid plate discipline that summer at an appropriate age (he was 19). The Colombian outfielder, who will turn 21 in late March, should be ready to go to full-season ball, which we can hope will be High A, and looks ready for a big power breakout.
7. Jordan Walker, 3B
Walker was the Cards’ first-round pick in 2020, an extremely toolsy Georgia prep infielder who has a well-below-average hit tool right now. He is 6-foot-5, a plus runner and has plus raw power and a plus arm. He might outgrow third base and end up in right, and while his swing works for power and potentially hard contact, his pitch recognition really lags behind his peers. His probability is very low, but this is superstar material here — boosted by what is reported to be excellent makeup — if he can develop his eye.
(A personal aside: The area scout who drafted Walker was Charles Peterson, a longtime scout for St. Louis and former minor leaguer who died from COVID-19 in August after spending several weeks on a ventilator. Charles was a friend, a father, a husband and a damn good scout. He was kind to me from the first time we met, always happy to talk about players, but also the kind of person who’d check in now and then just to see how I was doing. I still can’t believe he’s gone, but those of us who knew him will not forget him.)
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8. Tink Hence, RHP
Hence didn’t turn 18 until two months after the 2020 draft, but he was advanced for a high school arm, with a five-pitch arsenal, including a fastball at 92-96 and potential out-pitch curveball. He’s a good athlete with the kind of strength in his legs to maintain that power as a starter, which is good because he may not have a ton of projection left. He has age on his side and has above-average starter ceiling.
9. Masyn Winn, SS/RHP
Winn has electric bat speed … and an electric arm on the mound, but his odds of getting to the big leagues are probably higher as a shortstop than as a pitcher. His swing has good loft in its finish and if he hits, he’s going to hit for power as well. He’ll have to work on his footwork and range at short, but he has the arm and athleticism for third if that doesn’t work out. He could hit the upper 90s in short bursts as a pitcher, but his delivery was super-violent. The Cardinals plan to develop him as a position player but will at least have him throw a little to keep that in play as well.
10. Angel Rondón, RHP
Rondón was rumored to be part of the Nolan Arenado trade, and the Rockies would have done well to get him, as he’s a potential fourth starter with the potential for three above-average pitches, including a changeup that could end up a 60 and that helped him crush left-handed batters in 2019. He might not have much ceiling beyond league-average, but I think he’s a high-probability starter.
11. Justin Williams, OF
Williams has never gotten much hype as a prospect, other than for being traded twice, and maybe for breaking his hand while punching a television, but he’s a fairly disciplined hitter who has far more power than he’s shown in games. He’s a capable left fielder, so his position isn’t holding him back. If he gets to that power, he has everyday upside, and I haven’t seen any reason why he can’t do that.
12. Kodi Whitley
Whitley missed most of 2020 after contracting COVID-19 and then experiencing elbow soreness while trying to get game-ready. But he did look good once he returned. Whitley can pitch in the mid-90s and averaged 93.7 last year in the majors with a solid-average or better changeup, part of why he was so effective against lefties in the minors. He doesn’t spin anything well at all and may just be a two-pitch reliever with a show-me slider, but if the Cardinals are looking for a new reliever, he’s ready right now.
13. Edmundo Sosa, SS
Sosa has never become the 55/60 fielder he might have, but he can play solid-average defense at short and puts the ball in play a fair amount, giving him utility infielder potential. He’s so aggressive as a hitter, looking for the first thing he can put in play, that he has never walked unintentionally more than 21 times in a season, but he showed more power the last two years in the minors after a small mechanical change. He could be a soft regular for someone.
14. Johan Oviedo, RHP
Oviedo has regained some of the velocity he’d lost back in 2018-19, averaging almost 95 as a starter in the majors last year with good spin on his mid-80s slider. The fastball doesn’t miss bats, however, and his command in the majors was about a 40. I do think this is enough power for him to move to relief, maybe sit more 96-98 and miss bats once through an order.
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15. Julio E. Rodriguez, C
Rodriguez is a good catch-and-throw guy already, with a plus arm and good receiving skills, and he looks like he should have power, but he hasn’t hit at all in pro ball with a grooved swing that might connect for 10-12 homers a year but not much batting average. That still makes him a good backup who could play part time for a lot of clubs.
16. Malcom Nuñez, 3B
Nuñez, who won’t turn 20 until early March, has plus power and has shown the ability to hit in short-season ball and when the Cardinals had him at their alternate site to work with Oquendo on his defense at third. There’s still the lingering concern about whether he’ll hit better velocity, but we won’t know until he gets to play, as he has just 71 PA in full-season ball so far. If the extra work on defense keeps him at third, long a question given his size and lack of agility, he’d have upside beyond just a regular given his 30-homer potential.
17. Ian Bedell, RHP
Their fourth-rounder in 2020, Bedell is a four-pitch guy with lots of averages and no clear swing and miss pitch, getting outs via deception and his plus control, which could make him a back-end starter.
18. Junior Fernández, RHP
Fernández’s stuff was down a little bit in 2020 after he returned from a bout with COVID-19, but he was still up to 97 with a plus changeup. He’s never had a decent breaking ball but could have a solid run as a two-pitch reliever who gets hitters on both sides of the plate.
19. Andre Pallante, RHP
Pallante has a funky delivery that hides the ball well, with a very high slot that gives him tremendous depth on his plus curveball and angle to his fastball. His delivery is violent enough that he can have trouble keeping his cap on, and his velocity is a full grade lower when he starts, but I’d like to see him go to the pen full time and for the Cardinals to push him quickly up the ladder.
20. Alec Burleson, 1B
Burleson was the second of the Cardinals’ two second-round picks in 2020, a two-way player for East Carolina who rarely strikes out at the plate but whose no-stride approach and soft front side through contact have robbed him of potential power. If the Cardinals get him to stride and start to use his legs more, however, he has the size and strength to put 20 in the seats each year, which would give him some big-league upside.
2021 impact
Carlson has already been up, twice, and was better the second time around, so I hope he just gets an Opening Day job and runs with it. Sosa and Fernandez could see time as backups.
Sleeper
Torres has been a prospect for what seems like five years now, and I think he’s going to explode at the plate wherever he starts the season.
(Photo of Dylan Carlson: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)
