This system was bad after the back-to-back pennants of 2014-15, but it got good in a hurry here as the haul of college players they took in 2018 has worked out very well so far, followed by two very promising drafts in 2019 and 2020 and some possible player development success stories to be written in 2021.
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1. Daniel Lynch, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 17)
From the Top 100: Brady Singer and Kris Bubic saw the majors in 2020, but Lynch was and still is their best pitching prospect, a lefty who’s up to 99 mph with three off-speed pitches that can all grade out as plus, coming from a 6-foot-6 or 6-7 frame, too. Lynch missed some time in 2019 because of shoulder soreness but returned with the same power stuff he’d shown before, hitting 99 mph in the Arizona Fall League, and was doing so again at the Royals’ alternate site last summer while he worked on improving his change-up and developing more confidence in the pitch. His fastball doesn’t play up to its velocity, so he’ll need to pitch more with his secondary stuff, but his slider was already plus and his change-up looks like one now, too. He’ll have to keep working on repeating his delivery to boost his command and control, but this is elite stuff from the left side, and his arsenal has only improved since we last saw him.
2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS (Top 100 rank: No. 27)
From the Top 100: Witt was the second pick in the 2019 draft class, beating his father by one spot (Bobby Sr. went third overall in 1985, and the next year walked 143 men in 157.2 innings for Texas), with arm strength inherited from his dad but the potential for five tools out at shortstop, too. Witt is a plus runner with great instincts and projects to be a plus defender with a cannon for an arm. He has a simple swing but collapses his back side, adding power but possibly costing him contact as he faces better pitching. He played extremely well at the Royals’ alternate site, where they also had him work on smaller things like bunting for hits, and could move very quickly once minor-league games resume. He’s the long-term shortstop solution for the Royals, and if he hits for average as well as everything else, he’ll be their best player by his peak.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 30)
From the Top 100: Lacy had a legitimate argument to go first overall in 2020 as the best college pitcher in the draft, and a left-hander to boot, but the early end to the season probably put an end to that possibility. He flashed No. 1 stuff before the world ended, touching 98 mph, sitting 93-94 mph deep into starts, with a plus change-up and an above-average slider, all with a good delivery that has him taking a big step toward the plate. His command and control lagged a little, especially when he just tries to throw hard and harder when he falls behind or needs a swing and miss, but that’s more a function of inexperience than mechanical or physical deficiency. I don’t think the year off hurts guys like Lacy as much as it hurts most prospects — I’d rather he take a few months off than work deeply into June because of his team’s runs to Omaha — and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get to Double A in his first pro season, with No. 2 to No. 1 starter potential.
4. Jackson Kowar, RHP
Kowar still has an above-average fastball and 70 change-up, with good deception from his funky arm action, but his curveball remains a work in progress and at some point he’s going to have to try a slider as well, just to see if he can get an average breaking ball. The two pitches he has would be enough to make him a back-end starter with about a half-grade more command than he has now, although he doesn’t repeat his arm action quite well enough yet. He has size and the swing-and-miss pitch you want to see in a starter prospect, and if the breaking ball comes, he’ll move quickly to the big leagues.
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5. Kyle Isbel, OF
Isbel’s 2019 was interrupted by a broken hamate bone and he missed a chance in 2020 to show everyone how well he can hit when at full strength. He’s a hard-nosed player with above-average speed and a good two-strike approach, probably a 45 defender in center but with a chance to be plus in left. He has leadoff hitter potential as long as he’s back to making hard contact, using the whole field more and continuing to develop his approach to get into more hitter’s counts.
6. Nick Loftin, SS
The Royals took Loftin with the 33rd overall pick, in the compensatory round, in the 2020 draft, locking in a very likely big-league shortstop with high contact rates throughout college — he struck out in just 8 percent of his plate appearances over two-plus years at Baylor. He does have more power than you’d think from his size or his stats, but to get to it in games he has to lengthen his swing and risks more swing-and-miss. He’s a high floor guy but maybe there’s a little more thump in there than I thought on draft day.
7. Erick Peña, OF
Signed in 2019 for $3.8 million, Peña has looked good whenever the Royals have challenged him so far in two years of instructs, including one in Kansas City last year where he was facing older pitchers from the organization. He turns 18 on Feb. 20, and has plus bat speed and a good swing path for line-drive power, with the frame to grow into big power as he gets older, and he’s looked OK in center field despite his size and average running speed. He’ll probably still end up in right field with a strong throwing arm, but the bat will be his carrying tool in the end, and we’ll have to see if all the promise he’s shown in practice settings translates to facing real pitching this year.
8. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Bowlan can sit 95-96 mph and drives the ball down well from his 6-6 frame, so the fastball can be so heavy you might call them … Bowlan Balls. (Or maybe not.) He’s very strong and gets that velocity without great arm speed, so refining his slider has been a long work in progress, with deception in his consistent arm slot but not the power or huge spin you’d want to see on a breaking ball, and that may be why he’s not the extreme groundball guy you’d expect from his fastball. He has the size and control to be a back-end starter, but more than that would depend on him getting to a better breaking pitch.
9. Jon Heasley, RHP
Heasley was their 13th round pick in 2018 out of Oklahoma State, where the coaches were constantly tinkering with his delivery and plan, but broke out in 2019 in Low A, where he succeeded with solid-average command of a four-pitch mix. He works at 93-94 mph and pitches very aggressively, attacking hitters with all pitches, handling adversity and holding runners well, enough that you could also see him having success in a high-leverage relief role. The Royals were so loaded with pitchers for High A that they didn’t promote him, so he’s behind where he should be for his age and experience, but he has all the elements to be a fourth starter if he passes the Double A test.
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10. Nick Pratto, 1B
Pratto was their first-round pick in 2017 out of Huntington Beach, Calif., but his 2019 season in High A was a complete disaster, with a .191/.278/.310 line and a 34 percent strikeout rate, all the worse for a guy who was supposed to be an advanced bat for his age when he was drafted. Restoring his swing to get him away from a dead-pull/launch angle approach and back to using the whole field was the Royals’ goal for him in 2020, and they feel like he’s again the hitter they drafted, just older and stronger now. We’ll have to see it against live pitching but there’s reason for optimism on Pratto for the first time in two years.
11. Brewer Hicklen, OF
Hicklen should at least have a long run as a fourth outfielder in the big leagues, as he’s a 70 or 80 runner, can play all three outfield spots, and works the count well to get on base. He’ll flash average power now and then but it’s not consistent in games or even in his swing; if he gets to that more without increasing his strikeout rate, he could be a regular.
12. Noah Murdock, RHP
The 6-8 Murdock was the Royals’ seventh-round pick out of the University of Virginia in 2019 off a spring where he posted a 6.30 ERA for the Cavaliers in 14 starts. By the end of 2020, he was a new guy, working at 98-100 mph with high spin rates and a plus curveball. If he holds that kind of stuff in games in 2021, he’d have an upside to rival any right-hander on this list.
13. Carlos Hernandez, RHP
Hernandez reached the majors last year and sat 95-96 mph, topping out at 99.3 mph, with good spin on the four-seamer, with a promising if slurvy breaking ball and some success on a fringy change-up, but his command was a mess with way too many fastballs middle-middle that, of course, big-league hitters punished. I think he’s a pen guy in the end who could sit 97-100 mph and whose breaking ball will be better if he can just air it out.
14. Austin Cox, LHP
Cox has gone backward a little bit relative to the other starters in this system, with some command trouble, especially up in the zone, with his fastball last summer and fall. He does have the four-pitch mix to start, although he may be better off simplifying his arsenal with just one breaking ball, and throws enough strikes to be a starter or long man.
15. Lucius Fox, SS
Fox was the return for outfielder Brett Phillips, the second time Fox has been traded since landing a $6 million bonus from the Giants in 2015 as an international free agent. He’s a plus defender at short but hasn’t added the strength he needs to make decent contact against pro pitching, and his career has been interrupted by injuries, including a hamstring issue that limited him in 2020. If he gets stronger and turns the contact he makes into more line drives and base hits, he has everyday upside at short, and could also move to center field.
16. Zach Haake, RHP
Haake has worked as a starter but can’t seem to hold up in that role for a full season. He can touch the upper 90s with a plus slider and some feel for a change-up, and I think he could be dominant in a relief role if that also solves his recurrent arm soreness.
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17. MJ Melendez, C
Melendez has an 80 arm and probably 70 power, but has had a lot of trouble hitting, especially on pitches middle-away, because he opens up so early and tries to yank pitches out to right field — even though his pitch recognition isn’t as bad as the stat line might indicate. He’s a very high-energy player and the Royals have worked to calm him down behind the plate and make him a better receiver, rather than just someone who can back-pick half the runners who get to first. Of the trio who struggled in Wilmington in 2019 — him, Pratto and Seuly Matias — Melendez has the best all-around tools, and the upside of an above-average regular, but he’s further away from any of that than Pratto.
18. Seuly Matias, OF
Matias has 80 raw power and can murder fastballs, but getting him to recognize off-speed stuff and to lay off pitches soft away has been a halting process, held back by injuries that limited him to about half of his teams’ games in 2018 and 2019. He did play six games in the Dominican Winter League, hitting two homers, so at least he’s healthy, but he’s 22 now and has never hit .250 at any level.
19. Brady McConnell, OF
McConnell has been hurt almost continuously since signing in 2019 with a concussion, a flexor tendon strain and, in 2020, a calf strain limiting his time on the field, even in practice, so for now he’s just a really good athlete who could be an above-average defender in center and has the bat speed to hit for average but no real history of doing so.
20. Sebastian Rivero, C
Rivero has always looked like a backup catcher whose bat was too light for more than that, but he’s added strength and is driving the ball more often, so if that carries over into real games, he could have everyday upside and would be top 10 in this system.
Others of note
The Royals’ second-rounder in 2020 was Chicago high school right-hander Ben Hernandez, who isn’t that projectable but has an easy delivery and advanced fastball/change-up tandem right now; he needs a better breaking ball to project as more than a back-end starter … Their third-rounder was Tyler Gentry, an outfielder from the University of Alabama with plus power and plus speed, but a big back-side collapse at the plate that leads to huge swing and miss … Their fourth-rounder was Christian Chamberlain, generously listed at 5-10, a lefty who might have three average pitches including an above-average curveball, although we have to see how his velocity holds up when he’s pitching every fifth day rather than once a week.
2021 impact
Lynch should be the next guy up when the Royals need a starter, although right now their rotation seems set. Carlos Hernandez could help them in the bullpen at some point. They have other guys who are close but no obvious fits for weak spots on the big-league roster (like third base).
Sleeper
Last year’s sleeper was Cox, but he’s regressed. I’d replace him with Murdock, whose stuff exploded last summer and who could move quickly if that holds.
(Photo of Daniel Lynch: Elaine Thompson / Associated Press)
