Although I ranked the Nats’ system last among all 30 teams, it’s not as bad a system as that might imply — certainly not on par with the worst systems I’ve seen since I started ranking systems. It’s very light up top, with nobody on my top 100 and only one player particularly close. However, it’s surprisingly deep in guys who project to have some major-league value, even if it’s not as anything more than a backup. And there are at least a half-dozen prospects here who haven’t debuted in pro ball or played in full-season ball yet who have higher ceilings than that but whose probability will be low until we see them play.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Cade Cavalli, RHP (Just Missed)
From the Just Missed list: The Nationals were the only team without a player on the top 100, and Cavalli, their first-round pick in 2020, was the closest. He’s very athletic, with four pitches and good control, including a power curveball and a potential wipeout slider, but he didn’t miss anywhere near as many bats as he should have in college, especially on his fastball, and he’s going to have to make some sort of adjustment — pitching away from it, using more two-seamers, locating it more to the corners — to get to be a mid-rotation starter.
2. Jackson Rutledge, RHP
Rutledge was the Nats’ first-rounder in 2019, a huge, hard-throwing junior college right-hander with a heavy fastball up to 98-99 mph and a plus slider that gets good downward break because of his height (6-foot-8) and arm slot. He’s working on a changeup, which the Nats feel improved at the alternate site and which he’ll need if he wants to be a starter. He has an unusual delivery, with a short stride toward the plate, but so far he repeats it well enough. He could be a workhorse starter in the middle of a rotation if the changeup comes along, or he could end up a high-leverage reliever.
3. Cole Henry, RHP
Henry was a possible first-rounder but missed some time with a sore elbow and slid to the mid-second round, where the Nats were more than happy to scoop him up. He does have a high-effort delivery but throws a lot of strikes with a 55 curveball, solid-average fastball and average changeup. If he holds up, he might be a mid-rotation starter whose command and feel help him pitch above his pure stuff.
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4. Andry Lara, RHP
The 6-foot-4 Lara signed for $1.25 million in 2019 and has impressed the Nats since then, although the shutdown meant he was stuck in a hotel most of the year waiting for instructional league to start. Lara has a fast arm and a smooth delivery with little effort, showing above-average velocity, a promising changeup and very good spin on the curveball, which projects to be his best pitch. He has very little experience and wasn’t sharp in instructs, with good enough stuff but trouble throwing strikes. The Nats think he can move pretty quickly for a pitcher his age given where his stuff is already.
5. Roismar Quintana, OF
Signed in the same international class as Lara, Quintana is a power-hitting corner outfielder who has already shown a good feel for the strike zone and the ability to get to average fastballs in last year’s instructional league. He has played center, but he’s an average runner now and likely to slip to grade 45, so look for him to move to a corner.
6. Mason Denaburg, RHP
Denaburg had a setback in spring training last year after shoulder surgery late in 2019, rehabbing all year and coming back to throw in instructs, but he hasn’t quite regained his prior arm speed or the bite on his curveball. He has gotten stronger since we last saw him on the mound, and he was up to 95 mph with solid command for his age. Now we’re just hoping more time will bring back the velocity that made him a first-round pick in 2018.
7. Seth Romero, LHP
Romero can get up to 95-96 mph with a grade 70 changeup, but he topped out at 93 mph in the majors last year before breaking his hand. His breaking ball is fringy and his command has never been great, but he has the two pitches to start if he can stay healthy and avoid the suspensions that have plagued him since he was kicked off the University of Houston’s team in his draft year.
8. Tim Cate, LHP
Cate is a smaller lefty who has a plus curveball that he could ride right to the majors if his velocity is even close to average. Cate has been up to 93 mph but was more 87-89 mph during the summer, with his velocity creeping up as the season went on. His changeup is solid-average and he gets groundballs, so there’s enough else here to keep him a starter even if he’s just a fringe velocity guy. His ceiling depends more than anything on how hard he throws and how much he can pitch with that fastball.
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9. Matt Cronin, LHP
Cronin was a pure reliever at the University of Arkansas, and it sounds like the Nats plan to develop him in that role, potentially moving him quickly to the majors. He’s 94-97 mph with huge vertical break and 100 percent spin efficiency on the pitch, and he has an above-average to plus curveball that he just hasn’t had to use that much because he misses so many bats with the fastball. The only obstacle for him is control — he walked about a man every other inning in college and Low A in 2019, and as he moves up hitters won’t chase as much. He does have the one pitch to pitch in any late-game role.
10. Jeremy De La Rosa, OF
De La Rosa looked good in his pro debut in the GCL in 2019, crushing right-handed pitching, and has a good body and frame to potentially profile in center in the long term. He has plus bat speed and good balance at the plate, projecting to average power, although there’s some length in his swing because of his deep hand load, which he’ll eventually have to address so he can hit left-handed pitching.
11. Yasel Antuna, SS
Antuna played some of 2020 at the alternate site and showed more power than he had before, which is great given that he played just three games in 2019 because of various injuries and his rehab from Tommy John surgery. He has a compact swing that should lead to solid averages as well but still has to work on his approach, including pitch recognition. He’s still playing shortstop but at this point seems more likely to move to third base or even right field.
12. Sammy Infante, SS
The Nats took Infante with the extra pick they got after the second round for losing Anthony Rendon to free agency. He has a sound swing and should get to average power when he fills out; he doesn’t have the speed or footwork to stay at short in the long term, but he has a plus arm and could end up a 55 defender at third.
13. Daniel Marte, OF
Marte is an above-average runner with an absolute cannon of an arm, and he’s filled out since signing, going from 165 pounds to closer to 200 now. There’s pull power here that would let him profile as a regular in right if he has to move out of center.
14. Israel Pineda, C
Pineda has the upside for an above-average everyday catcher, with a lot of work to do on offense and defense to get there. He has a good knack for getting the barrel to the ball, and he benefited from spending time at the alternate site last year, both for facing big-league-quality pitching and for working on catching it. He has an average arm and the Nats believe in his work ethic and makeup, but he’s going to play at 21 this year and is probably two to three years away.
15. Joan Adon, RHP
Adon moved to a starting role in 2019 and pitched well in Low A, showing increased velocity and pitching at 94-96 mph with a good slider. Since then, he has really worked on his changeup, to the point where it’s probably his best secondary pitch, with nasty fading action, giving him a better swing-and-miss option. He does have to throw more strikes, and the way he cuts himself off in his landing is not helping matters, but there is the three-pitch mix and size here for him to start.
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16. Jake Irvin, RHP
Irvin was the Nats’ fourth-round pick in 2018 and had an unremarkable debut in Low A in 2019, but he showed up working at 94-97 mph early in the summer at the alternate site … and then had Tommy John surgery. Check back in late 2021 or early 2022, but if he brings that velocity again, he’s a whole new prospect.
17. Evan Lee, LHP
Lee was a two-way guy at Arkansas, not doing much of either, but the Nats made him exclusively a pitcher and he’s started to take off, with huge spin on his fastball and a plus curveball. He’s working on a cutter and changeup, so he could develop as a starter, but his command is also still below average and that might be asking for a lot of improvement from a pitcher who’ll turn 24 in June. Even as is, he has a good reliever profile with the two pitches already in his quiver.
18. Steven Fuentes, RHP
Fuentes flopped around the Nats’ system as a reliever for parts of five years, but he took off when the Nats moved him to the rotation for 11 starts in 2019 — until he tested positive for a banned stimulant and was suspended for the remainder of the season. He’s a fastball/changeup guy who gets a ton of groundballs and can miss bats with the change, along with a fringy slider. He’s probably a reliever or long man, but if the stuff is still what it was before the suspension and the shutdown, he could be some sort of big leaguer soon.
19. Viandel Pena, SS
Pena is tiny, listed at just 5-foot-8, but he has a very simple approach from both sides of the plate and makes a ton of contact, leading the GCL in batting average and coming in third in OBP as an 18-year-old in 2019. He’s just going to have to keep proving it because of his size and has to work to make sure he’s strong enough to keep the contact quality high.
20. Bryan Sanchez, RHP
Sanchez is just 18 years old but gets 3,000 rpms on his curveball, and he sits in the low 90s, touching 95 mph, so there’s clearly some big-league upside here. He’s not very physical and is about as raw on the mound as you’d expect a kid that age to be, but an arm like that is pretty unusual and we know teams value this kind of spin very highly.
Others of note
Jackson Cluff can really play shortstop, has a plus arm and above-average speed, and he has a little more pop than you might expect, but his hit tool is lacking and he’s already 24 with just a summer of pro experience, so he’s probably a utility guy at best. … Tyler Dyson looked like a future first-rounder as a freshman at Florida, but the right-hander struggled with command after that and ended up out of the rotation; the Nats have had him working on a curveball to give him a better breaking pitch than the slider. … Right-hander Zach Brzykcy, known of course as “Eye Chart,” was undrafted but signed with the Nats as a free agent this summer, showing four pitches in instructs. He barely pitched at Virginia Tech, working solely in relief and walking 41 guys in 35 innings over three years, although he was far better on the Cape in 2019, with one walk in 10 innings for Falmouth. … Todd Peterson is a fastball/slider guy, up to 98 mph, a straight reliever taken in the seventh round in 2019 who should move quickly this year. … Third baseman Drew Mendoza has huge power and huger swing-and-miss, with trouble keeping his top half and lower half synced up. … Eighteen-year-old right-hander Mirton Blanco is 6-foot-5 and hit 98 mph last year but had Tommy John surgery in the fall. … I’ve always thought catcher Jakson Reetz would hit for more average and power, but he only showed it when repeating High A in 2019; the Nats re-signed him as a minor-league free agent.
2021 impact
The only thing holding Seth Romero back from pitching in the Nats’ bullpen this year is Seth Romero. You could see Cronin or Fuentes zip to the majors in a relief role, too. I don’t think they’ll see much other help from the farm this year, between the fairly set major-league roster and the lack of position-player prospects near the majors.
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Sleeper
My sleeper for the Nats last year was Eddy Yean, whom they traded to the Pirates for Josh Bell this offseason, with a mention for Antuna as well. Antuna is still in that bucket, but Lara is probably the best candidate for a leap if there’s a minor-league season.
(Photo of Cade Cavalli: Matt Patterson / Associated Press)
