The Mets have traded a lot of talent, for better (the Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco trade, the J.D. Davis trade) and for worse (the Robinson Canó/Edwin Diaz trade), but very strong drafts the last few years plus a couple of high-dollar signings on the international front give them a strong top tier of prospects, just lacking the depth of systems in the top 10.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Francisco Alvarez, C (Top 100 rank: No. 19)
From the Top 100: Alvarez signed with the Mets in July 2018 for $2.7 million, then a club record for a signing bonus for an international player, and hasn’t stopped hitting since. He’s a force at the plate, with a compact but powerful swing as well as impressive command of the strike zone for someone who just turned 19 in November. He rarely strikes out and already has enough power to project as an above-average regular at catcher when he gets to the majors. Behind the plate, he’s a solid-average receiver with an arm that might be a tick above that, enough of everything that he’s going to stay at the position. With his contact skills and present power, he’ll be very good, but if the power develops, or he maintains his strong walk rates, the Venezuelan teenager will be a star.
2. Ronny Mauricio, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 32)
From the Top 100: Mauricio may have been passed by Alvarez in the Mets’ system, but he’s still a potential star thanks to his ability to add value on both sides of the ball, with his upside really a function of how strong he ultimately gets. He’s a dynamic athlete who plays above-average defense at short, and his hands are extremely quick, generating a ton of bat speed, although so far that has put the ball on the ground far too often and he’ll have to learn to put the ball in the air more often to get to his ceiling. He did make a lot of contact at age 18 in Low A, however, so there’s reason to think he can improve his line-drive rate and possibly get to some power in a few years. Mauricio won’t turn 20 until April but has already spent a full year in Low A, despite the loss of the 2020 season to the pandemic, and he could still head to High A this year at an appropriate age. There’s huge upside here; last offseason I said he could become a top-five prospect with a big year at High A, and I’m sticking to it.
3. Matt Allan, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 90)
From the Top 100: The Mets went all-in on Allan in the 2019 draft, taking him in the third round and giving him most of the remaining money in their bonus pool that year, going under slot with their picks in the rest of the top 10 rounds because of their belief they were getting a first-round arm. So far that appears to be the case, as Allan has looked like a potential No. 1 starter. He’ll pitch at 92-95 mph with more in the tank and his curveball is at least a 60 already, a power pitch with tight, downward break, along with a much-improved changeup that had left-handed batters in Mets camp raving. His four-seamer can play down a bit below his velocity, but he’ll get a lot of outs with the secondary stuff and isn’t afraid to attack hitters with all of his weapons. He’s probably more of a No. 2 starter than an ace, with all the risks associated with a pitcher who will pitch all of this year at age 20.
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4. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 94)
From the Top 100: Crow-Armstrong went to the same high school baseball factory, Harvard-Westlake, that gave us Lucas Giolito, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty. He boosted his draft stock last spring before the shutdown by getting stronger in the offseason and starting the season very well before the pandemic ended it. Crow-Armstrong is a future 70 defender in center with a plus arm and a 60 runner with good instincts on the bases. At the plate, he has good feel to hit with bat speed, although his front side can go soft and he’s shown more swing and miss, including at showcase events, than you want from a player of this profile. He also has faced better pitching in his amateur career than most high school kids, which could be skewing that last variable. He has a high floor because of his glove and speed; if he firms up that front side, he could also become a great leadoff hitter with high averages and OBPs to go with the plus defense.
5. Brett Baty, 1B/3B (Just Missed)
From the Just Missed: Baty was a 19-year-old high school senior when the Mets took him in the first round in 2019, a big kid with an advanced bat who probably will end up moving from third base to first base. The case for a 19-year-old high school position player revolves around his bat being so advanced that he could get to Double A by his age-21 season, which was the Mets’ belief (and mine, for that matter) on Baty. Sometimes that belief is wrong; I thought Blake Rutherford, the Yankees’ first-round pick in 2016, was that kind of guy, and he hasn’t produced at all, making a lot of weak contact in A ball and all but falling off prospect lists. Baty just lost his age-20 season to the pandemic, so now he’s 21 and has yet to take an at-bat in full-season ball, without the experience that 21-year-old college products have of playing in the SEC or ACC against better pitching. Baty might still be a star, but the road for him to get there is tougher now because of the lost year.
6. Mark Vientos, 3B
Vientos posts huge exit velocities, on par with Peter Alonso’s, even though he’s still just 21 and hasn’t played above Low A yet. He’s gotten bigger since we last saw him and is going to be fringy at third base, probably needing to work to maintain his conditioning so he can stay there, but his bat should play everywhere … if he can make better decisions at the plate to get into more hitters’ counts. He didn’t see enough pitches in 2019 and his walk rate of 4.8 percent, less than half of what it was in short-season ball in 2018, just won’t cut it. His bat could be special if his plan at the plate improves.
7. Khalil Lee, OF
Acquired in the three-way deal that sent Andrew Benintendi to Kansas City, Lee has above-average to plus power, but in 2019 he hit the ball on the ground way too often, so the goal last year was to get him to elevate the ball more and try to get more out in front, which the Royals felt they saw from him at the alternate site. He’s a disciplined hitter who can be patient to a fault, finding himself in two-strike counts too often and then shortening up, cutting off his power potential. He’s a true center fielder with plus speed and a cannon for an arm, so there’s star-level upside here, a 20/20 guy in center who strikes out often but also draws plenty of walks, if he can show he can hit more line drives and fly balls this year.
8. J.T. Ginn, RHP
Ginn was a first-round pick out of high school, declined to sign with the Dodgers, went to Mississippi State where he dominated as a freshman but blew out as his sophomore year started, needing Tommy John surgery. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore because of age, and the Mets took him in the second round, paying him $2.9 million (or late first-round money), because of what they saw from him in 2019 and 2018 when he was first drafted. Ginn has electric stuff, a 70 fastball and 60 breaking ball when he’s healthy, and in the fall of 2020, he was showing a much-improved changeup that could give him three pluses. He also had a violent delivery with a head-whack and seemed like he’d have a hard time holding up as a starter unless that changed, giving him significant reliever risk that’s probably as high today as it was then. He does have huge upside, but it’s at least as likely he ends up in the pen as in the rotation.
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9. Thomas Szapucki, LHP
Szapucki was a top-100 guy before Tommy John surgery in mid-2017, up to 95 with a hammer curveball, but his stuff hasn’t come all the way back since his return in 2019. He’ll sit in the low 90s now with good secondary characteristics and his curveball is still plus with tight spin and two-plane break, if not quite where it was four years ago. He’s been working on the changeup he’ll need to be an effective starter and does need another half-grade or more of control, but the out-pitch breaking ball and his size give him mid-rotation upside with a high probability of at least being a major-league reliever.
10. Alexander Ramirez, OF
Ramirez signed for $2.09 million in 2019 and just turned 18 in January. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm and should be at least a 60 defender in center. He projects to hit for plus power when he fills out, with great extension and loft through contact, but his swing is a little long and he still chases too many pitches out of the zone. You can dream on the tools and the body and see a future 20-25 homer guy who plays elite defense in center, but he may have a long runway.
11. Jaylen Palmer, SS
A great case of old-fashioned scouting by area scout John Kosciak, Palmer was the Mets’ 22nd-round pick in 2018 out of a high school in Queens, signing for an over-slot bonus. He has huge power, at least a 60, plus speed, and a plus arm, but huge swing and miss at the plate, and he’s going to have to move to third base rather than stay at short. It’s 30-plus homer power, though, with lots of tools if he can get the contact rate up, with some improvements already during the shutdown.
12. Robert Dominguez, RHP
Dominguez signed relatively late for an international free agent, inking with the Mets when he was nearly 18, but the 6-foot-5 Venezuelan right-hander has looked like a steal so far. He’ll pitch at 95-96 with heavy sink and an above-average slider, and his delivery should work for a starter. He’s comparable to a projection right-hander taken out of high school in the U.S., such as Mets draftee Josh Wolf (since traded to Cleveland), but a little more advanced and more physical.
13. Freddy Valdez, OF
Valdez can run and has a plus arm, but he’s a poor defender in center and will have to work to play a corner. His ultimate value will come down to his plus-plus raw power and whether he hits enough to get to it in games. He hit well for a 17-year-old in the DSL and GCL in 2019, with a good eye and solid contact rate along with doubles power, despite a long swing that he uses to pull the ball and a lot of holes as a result. I thought he’d make a leap forward in 2020.
14. Junior Santos, RHP
Santos is enormous, 6-8, and works at 92-95 with good control, but his secondary stuff hasn’t come along yet. If he develops even an average breaking ball, he has a chance to be a pretty good starter, with solid reliever potential otherwise because he throws the fastball for strikes.
15. Carlos Cortes, OF/2B
Cortes can hit enough to play somewhere in the majors but has been a man in search of a position since high school. He’s capable in left, but hasn’t shown the power for that, and he’s fringy at second, or maybe just a 45 there. He’s a high-contact hitter with a decent eye and his batted ball data has been better than his performance data, which is a long way of saying he has to do something better in 2021 — hit for more average, show some power or get to solid-average defense at second — to really stay a prospect.
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16. Joshua Cornielly, RHP
Cornielly signed for just $25,000 out of Venezuela in 2017 and has made some steady progress in pro ball, with more polish than upside even though he’s only 20. He’s a strike-thrower with a solid-average fastball/changeup combination, working at 91-93, while his breaking ball is still on the come. There’s still some projection left, but his ceiling revolves more around him getting to an average breaking ball than adding velocity.
17. Shervyen Newton, SS
Newton is a wizard at shortstop, maybe the best in the system, but his bat is way behind where it should be, as the Netherlands native struck out in 33 percent of his PA in Low A in 2019. He’ll play at 22 this year and, due to the shutdown, hasn’t had any success above short-season ball. He’s got bat speed and plus raw power, but he has to recognize pitches better to get to it.
18. Ryley Gilliam, RHP
Gilliam is a power fastball/curveball reliever who flew all the way to Triple A in his first full year in the minors and should pitch in the major-league bullpen this year. He throws strikes, but his command is just iffy and the Mets’ efforts to give him a real changeup haven’t paid off yet, but he was always going to be a reliever anyway given his history and size.
19. Tylor Megill, RHP
Megill was the Mets’ eighth-rounder in 2018 out of the University of Arizona as a senior sign, but he has emerged as a legitimate prospect, at least in a relief role. His velo really came on in instructs last year, as he was 94-98 with a power curveball and throwing strikes. He’s 6-7 and looks like he should be able to start, although he needs a third pitch for that to happen.
20. Adrián Hernández, OF
Signed for $1.5 million in 2017, Hernández played in just four games in 2019 before a hamstring injury ended his season, so he hasn’t played regularly since his lone professional summer in 2018. He’s a future-plus defender in center who runs well. At the plate, he has a fast bat and strong forearms but a somewhat noisy approach that could lead to swing and miss down the road, although he didn’t have that issue when he did play three years ago.
2021 impact
Most likely, nobody. Szapucki might be in line for some innings if there are injuries, or Franklyn Kilome in the bullpen for the same reason, but if the Mets’ season goes as planned, they won’t need anyone from this list.
Sleeper
Valdez was my sleeper last year. Megill might be a reliever in the end, but he might be a surprise starter.
(Photo of Ronny Mauricio: Rich Schultz / Getty Images)
