The Pirates’ system hasn’t produced enough to keep the major-league team competitive the past few seasons, but there is a lot of talent bubbling under the surface, from their international scouting efforts and the trades this winter that sent Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove to other teams. I’m often asked what system might jump 10 spots in my rankings from one year to the next. Pittsburgh is my pick for 2021.
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To appear in these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 13)
From the Top 100: Hayes was the best rookie in the National League in 2020, not that any voters bothered to check the stats before sending in their ballots last year; his month in the majors was worth 1.6 (FanGraphs) to 1.9 (Baseball Reference) WAR, putting him ahead of eventual winner Devin Williams by a sizable margin. Hayes is an elite defender at third base who’ll rival Nolan Arenado for the title of best in baseball, with great hands and reads off the bat as well as a plus arm. He’s always been more of a hitter for average than big power, so the five homers he hit in September were a surprise and probably not indicative of 30-homer seasons to come. He just hits the ball hard, and often: Had he qualified, his hard-hit rate of 55.4 percent would have ranked ninth in baseball, between two guys named Yelich and Trout. His swing doesn’t have a ton of loft, so there’s the potential for a tweak later on that unlocks big-time power, but as is he should hit for a high average with a slew of doubles. Add that to his defense at third and you’ve got a 4-5-win player even if his homer total tops out in the teens.
2. Quinn Priester, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 73)
From the Top 100: Priester was the first high school pitcher selected in the 2019 draft and was dominant in instructional league this past fall, bumping 97 in an outing in which he faced the first high school pitcher selected in the 2020 draft, Philadelphia’s Mick Abel. Priester was mostly a fastball/curveball guy in high school, with the curveball projecting to plus, but the Pirates have added a slider that shows some promise and have had him use his change-up more, since he barely needed it in high school. He’s got a great frame with broad shoulders and is starting to fill out; his delivery was already good in high school, with a repeatable arm action and good use of his lower half to generate velocity. High school pitchers are a risky bunch, but this is exactly where you’d want such a prospect to be 18 months out of the draft, and if he keeps getting stronger, his ceiling might be higher than I previously thought.
3. Hudson Head, OF (Just missed)
From the Just Missed list: I thought Head would make my Top 100 before I started assembling the list, but he ended up just on the outside of it. Head has elite bat speed and has shown huge power in BP, although word from instructs was that his swing had started to go backward, which would put a big dent in his projection. He’s still a center fielder, although he had hamstring trouble last year and didn’t always show the range he can have at the position. If his swing is back to where it was before the shutdown, he’s a good candidate to make the jump in 2021.
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4. Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS
The Pirates’ first pick in the 2020 draft put up big numbers in one of the best hitters’ parks in Division I at New Mexico State, including five homers in one day last spring, but he’s more of a hitter than a power guy once he gets down from the high altitude. He hits with a big leg kick and no stride, showing plus bat speed and hard contact but no weight transfer or other use of his lower half. His range and arm are both fringy and will push him to second base. He seems like a high-floor, low-ceiling guy, very likely to reach the big leagues, unlikely to be more than a strong, average regular.
5. O’Neil Cruz, SS
Cruz’s legal troubles from a motor vehicle accident appear to be over, and early reports that he was intoxicated were inaccurate, so we should see him back on the field this spring. He’s still at shortstop, and though his actions are good and he has plenty of arm, he’s still 6-foot-7 (at least), taller than any shortstop in MLB history by 2 inches. Making the routine plays when you’re that tall — and not getting hurt — is going to get more difficult as the game speeds up. He’s kept his contact rate up through Double A despite the length of his arms, although covering both sides of the plate will be a challenge, as it was for Aaron Judge in Triple A and the majors; I would expect at least a 25 percent strikeout rate for Cruz in the majors, but with the power to compensate. It’s more likely to come in the outfield than at shortstop, however.
6. Liover Peguero, SS
Peguero’s first year in the Pirates organization — he was part of the return for outfielder Starling Marte — was spent at the alternate site and in instructs, but the highly athletic 20-year-old still looks like someone who’ll move quickly through the lower minors and become the Pirates’ shortstop of the future. He’s always been a high-contact guy, but he has started to hit the ball very hard and might end up with 55 or better power if he elevates it a little more. He’s a definite shortstop with an above-average arm and plus speed. His upside is as good as anyone’s in the system after Hayes.
7. Travis Swaggerty, OF
Swaggerty is a plus runner and plus defender, with upside in the field, who should be a strong hitter for average with on-base skills, but he got very pull-conscious in his draft year (2018) and is still working that out of his swing. The Pirates worked with him on that in 2020, but the proof will be in the pudding when he faces live pitching, probably in Double A, this year. If he uses the whole field and doesn’t try to pull everything in the air, he could be an above-average regular in center with value on defense, on the bases and from his OBP.
8. Eddy Yean, RHP
Yean was my sleeper prospect for the Nationals going into 2020, a projectable right-hander who could already work in the low 90s with good control. He’s now more 96-97 mph with a power two-seamer that’s going to generate a lot of awkward swings and weak contact, the kind of pitch that could make him a fast-moving reliever, but he still has enough secondaries to develop as a starter. Acquired along with Wil Crowe in the Josh Bell trade, Yean could easily end up as the better player the Pirates received in the deal.
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9. Cody Bolton, RHP
Taken in the sixth round in 2017 by area scout Mike Sansoe, Bolton has blossomed in the past two years with the Pirates and looks like a clear starter with some upside remaining. He’ll pitch 92-94 mph and touch a little more, with an average slider and change-up, but what really stands out is his feel for pitching, especially for someone who’ll pitch at 23 this year and has only 171 innings of pro experience. He repeats his delivery well and throws a lot of strikes, although his arm is a tick late, adding deception but definitely giving some pause about his durability. He’s had only one arm issue in pro ball, a forearm strain in 2018, so for now he’s a starter, and he could be league-average or better if the fastball keeps trending upward.
10. Miguel Yajure, RHP
Part of the return for Taillon from the Yankees, Yajure is a small right-hander with a good delivery and a four-pitch mix that give him league-average upside in a rotation. He throws 90-95 mph and works effectively at the top of the zone, while his curve has good spin and the cutter he recently added gives him a pitch to use inside against lefties.
11. Roansy Contreras, RHP
Contreras came over in the Taillon trade, bringing a strong change-up and plus control along with a solid-average fastball to give him a solid floor at the back of a rotation. His third pitch in 2019 was a fringy curveball in the mid-70s with good shape but no power. The change-up has hard tailing action, and it’s effective against hitters on both sides of the plate, but to be a mid-rotation starter he needs to tighten the curveball or, more likely, make use of his arm speed and try a slider instead.
12. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP
Mlodzinski was the Pirates’ second pick in 2020, taken 31st, after a very strong summer on Cape Cod in 2019 where he worked in the mid-90s with a 55 slider and a potentially average changeup. He can show average control but not command, in part because his deceptive delivery is hard for him to repeat. He should go out as a starter, but there’s probably 60/40 starter/reliever risk.
13. Endy Rodriguez, C
Rodriguez came to the Pirates from the Mets as an add-on to the Musgrove trade, with the Pirates sending Joey Lucchesi to Queens to add the young catching prospect. Rodriguez is a very good catch-and-throw guy with some life in his bat. He showed good contact rates in complex leagues in 2019, with the swing and frame to get to average power. He’ll turn 21 in May and should be ready for Low A now, with a solid floor as a backup given where his hit tool is already.
14. Brennan Malone, RHP
Malone came from Arizona with Peguero in the Marte trade, and his 2020 was interrupted by a false positive result for COVID-19, so he hasn’t gotten as much work as Peguero has. He’s still as he was a year ago — 92-95 mph with a slider that projects to plus, lacking life on the fastball and needing work on a change-up, but with good projection all around and a delivery that gets him out well over his front side.
15. Ji-Hwan Bae, SS
Bae was suspended for the first 30 days of 2019 by MLB after he was convicted of physically assaulting his girlfriend, which included her accusation that he choked her. He has produced as a hitter despite an unconventional approach that has him staying open after his stride and with a swing that looks like it’s from another sport — golf, maybe, or polo — and in theory he’d profile fine once he moves to second base, but I don’t think any team should be employing a player who was convicted of this kind of violent crime.
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16. Tahnaj Thomas, RHP
Thomas is still more thrower than pitcher, up to 100 mph from a high 3/4 slot with a very fast arm (obviously), while his other weapons are still works in progress. He’s very athletic and has the size to carry a good workload if he develops a starter’s arsenal. That’s sort of a long shot, but he’ll turn only 22 in June, and like many Bahamian prospects, he came into pro ball with less game experience than most international free agents.
17. Braxton Ashcraft, RHP
Ashcraft is a good example of the type of high school pitcher the Pirates have liked to take for several years now, projectable and athletic but fairly raw — like Travis MacGregor, who’s still coming back from Tommy John surgery. Ashcraft has been slowly building up his arsenal, up to 95 mph in instructs last year with progress on his slider to the point where it looks like it could become an out pitch for him, something he really lacked a year ago. His projection might be limited by a narrow frame, but there’s still room for him to add more muscle and hold a grade 55 fastball as a starter.
18. Jared Oliva, OF
Oliva was a walk-on at Arizona and played his way into becoming a seventh-round pick in 2017, then made his major-league debut in 2020. He’s a plus runner and throws well, so there’s a good chance he could play center field every day, although for now he’s better suited to a corner. He’s probably a 45 hit/45 power guy at this point, which might give him a chance to be a regular in center, but at worst he’s an excellent fourth outfielder and ready for the job now.
19. Sammy Siani, OF
Siani, like his brother Mike, has had trouble with his swing, trying to pull the ball and hit for more power than his body and size really permit, when he should take advantage of his patient approach and speed as a contact/line-drive guy. He’s a 55 runner and in center field now but may have to move to a corner. If he doesn’t right the ship with his swing, it’s hard to see him becoming more than an extra outfielder, but he has the foot and hand speed as well as the makeup to do so.
20. Dariel Lopez, SS
Lopez signed in 2018 for $400,000 and had a tremendous pro debut in the Dominican Summer League (DSL) the next year, hitting .341/.404/.485, playing primarily shortstop and drawing comparisons to a younger Manny Machado with his actions in the field. He’s smaller than Machado and doesn’t have the same power projection but does look like he’ll have enough hit tool to be a regular, with real upside with the bat.
Others of note
Omar Cruz was part of the Musgrove trade, a solid fifth starter prospect with command but no real upside beyond that. … Alex Mojica is a big-bodied third baseman with an advanced bat for his age — he hit .351/.468/.580 in the DSL in 2019, playing most of the summer at 16 — and has the arm for third base, but he’s more likely to have to move to first. His bat may still profile there with his hit/power potential. … Outfielder Rodolfo Nolasco signed in the same 2018-19 class as Lopez and Mojica; he’s a corner outfielder with big exit velocities that provide hope for future power. … Right-hander Jared Jones was the Pirates’ second-round pick in 2020, a two-way guy in high school with a fast arm and potential plus change-up, in search of a breaking ball and better fastball quality. … First baseman Cal Mitchell will play at 22 this year and hasn’t shown the plus hit tool he was supposed to develop, with too much swing-and-miss on breaking stuff and below-average work in the outfield. … The Pirates added infielder Maikol Escotto and outfielder Canaan Smith in the Taillon trade. Escotto has a sweet right-handed swing and real power, with some overstride and a tendency to get over his front leg too early. He’s played three infield spots and profiles best at second base. Smith, a corner outfielder with doubles power, showed a far more selective approach at the plate in 2019. He doesn’t hit lefties well and his body doesn’t offer much projection but he could be a good platoon outfielder.
2021 impact
Hayes is the third baseman, now and I assume for the next five to six years. Wil Crowe will probably be their fifth starter to begin the year, but at this point I don’t see further upside for him beyond that. Oliva would be a great fourth outfielder for 2021.
Sleeper
It was Peguero a year ago and it’s Peguero now. Rodriguez would be a second name for 2021, especially with his positional value.
(Photo of Ke’Bryan Hayes: Justin Berl / Getty Images)
