The draft is just a week away — the first round and the Competitive Balance A round will be held on at 7 p.m. ET on June 10 — and a few more things are rounding into shape in the top half or so, although the view is blurrier as gets to the end of the teens. Here’s my third projection of how the first round, which comprises 29 picks, might play out, based on the best information I’ve gotten so far from industry sources.
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1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
If the Tigers are going to pull a fast one on all of us, they’ve kept it fairly quiet. I would have no objection if they chose Austin Martin or Asa Lacy instead, but the world seems to think the Tigers take Tork.
2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt
I did hear they would consider an under-slot deal with Heston Kjerstad, taking the savings to go over slot at No. 30 (Competitive Balance pick) and No. 39 (second round), but I still think they’ll take Martin given his elite exit velocities and contact rates, and the fact that slot values at Nos. 30/39 will still get them someone pretty good. If the Tigers go rogue, I think the Orioles take Torkelson.
3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
I don’t believe Lacy would go second, but he could go first, in which case the Marlins would just take whichever of the top three guys is available.
4. Kansas City Royals: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek (Fla.) HS
This rumor won’t go away, and I think it’s in part because there’s a clear top three in the draft and then a gap before the next tier of talent. Why not take the top high school player, go a little under slot and do something creative at picks No. 32 (Competitive Balance) and No. 41?
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
I’ve heard pitching (Hancock, Max Meyer, maybe Reid Detmers) more than hitting (Nick Gonzales) here, but I’d be very surprised if they didn’t go with a college player.
6. Seattle Mariners: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
They might take Hancock if he were here — you could flip these two picks and I wouldn’t argue — but I think this is Gonzales’ floor.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS
The Pirates have supposedly spent “a lot of time” on Abel, which doesn’t mean they’ll take him, but they’re serious about the possibility, and I also heard they didn’t want to go too safe.
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8. San Diego Padres: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
If they take Meyer, don’t be surprised to see him in the majors this year at some point. If he goes ahead of them, they could take Robert Hassell III or Heston Kjerstad or Veen.
9. Colorado Rockies: Robert Hassell III, OF, Independence (Tenn.) HS
I’ve heard Hassell and Kjerstad here, which may end up more of a philosophical debate (high school upside versus safe college) than a talent one. It doesn’t sound like they’d take any of the arms likely to get to them.
10. Los Angeles Angels: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
I could see them taking Meyer if he got here (which he won’t) or Detmers if he got here (which he might), although they took a very similar player to Bailey last year in his teammate Will Wilson (now a Giant). Pete Crow-Armstrong might be a dark-horse candidate here.
11. Chicago White Sox: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
I have heard the White Sox aren’t wedded to taking a college player here, but it’s been ages since they went with a high school player in the first round — their organizational philosophy seems to be to take bigger risks when the opportunity cost is lower, which I understand completely — and Detmers does a lot of things they value in pitchers.
12. Cincinnati Reds: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
I’ve heard them more with college pitchers than hitters, including Detmers and Cade Cavalli, but that also assumed Kjerstad was going No. 7 or No. 9.
13. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Soderstrom, C/3B, Turlock (Calif.) HS
This connection comes up again and again, although they are also among the few teams in the top 20 to focus on Nick Bitsko.
14. Texas Rangers: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East (Pa.) HS
And this is another team focusing on Bitsko in the top 20. Teams below Texas identified the Rangers as one of the teams most willing to take a bigger risk in this year’s draft even though it leans college and the majority of teams are signaling conservative approaches.
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15. Philadelphia Phillies: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
Cavalli boosted himself this spring in the brief college season, looking more advanced once he was no longer also trying to hit, and he probably fits in the teens here. The Phillies seem open to any player type except high school pitching.
16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
The Cubs seem unlikely to take a high school pitcher, and other executives have speculated that they’d go college given the new scouting director and the need to get some players into the system faster.
17. Boston Red Sox: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) School
I’ve heard the Red Sox would like to grab one of the top high school position players with this pick, assuming the right one falls, and after Veen and Hassell, Crow-Armstrong is the next guy.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS
The Mike Hazen D-Backs went big on upside last year, and their biggest successes to date in the draft have come on high school position players. I know of teams in the 20s hoping Howard falls to them but also had sources above that indicate they don’t think he gets out of the teens.
19. New York Mets: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny (Pa.) HS
Hendrick has only a couple of landing spots, as he’s going to be sophomore-eligible if he goes to Mississippi State and may ask for an over-slot bonus, even though scouts didn’t see him play this year. The Mets seem to be hoping for a top high school bat to get to them, with college pitching the fallback.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State
Dingler is a reasonably high-floor guy because of his catch-and-throw skills, and he was working his way into the top half of the round when the season ended. There are still some concerns about his durability at a position that’s very physically demanding.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami
The Cards were the one team I had heard linked to high schooler Dylan Crews, who removed himself from the draft this week, but beyond that it’s been more college pitchers and a few position players (e.g., Jordan Westburg).
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22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
I’ve heard this connection a slew of times, and it does fit the Nats’ general preferences; if Wilcox goes before this, I could see them having an interest in Garrett Crochet, another tall and very hard-throwing college arm.
23. Cleveland: Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal (Texas) HS
Witt has been up to 95 mph with a very projectable frame and a lightning-quick arm. He’s also still 17 years old as of draft day, which figures heavily in Cleveland’s model for the draft.
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
Jarvis’ jump of almost 10 mph from last year, when he was a 37th-round pick, to this spring is quite unusual for a 22-year-old, but he’s worked himself into first-round consideration and could come under slot given his age, since he’d be 23.5 at the 2021 draft.
25. Atlanta Braves: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS
I’ve heard they’re one of the few teams targeting high school pitching, and while it’s not necessarily for their first-round pick, they do like Kelley and could take him here as a “value” pick, since he was once forecast to go much higher.
26. Oakland Athletics: Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State
The A’s tend to go college when they pick later in the first round, and they could go with Westburg, UNC’s Aaron Sabato, or a pitcher like Jarvis or Bobby Miller.
27. Minnesota Twins: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
Beeter might have worked his way into the first half of the round had the season continued, but as it is, some teams’ models have his hammer curveball as the best pitch in the draft, which puts him in the mix for an analytics-focused team like the Twins.
28. New York Yankees: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
Miller has been overshadowed a bit by teammate Detmers but is getting some first-round attention from teams in the 20s, especially the Yankees, who like the plus life on his mid-90s fastball.
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29. Los Angeles Dodgers: CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State
The Dodgers are willing to go high school, although the last time they did that was in 2018 for J.T. Ginn, who didn’t sign and will probably go in the No. 20-40 range next week. Van Eyk was getting top-15 buzz in the preseason, but after Week 1 he had a few disappointing outings and never got a chance to right the ship. His stuff grades out well on TrackMan, which will appeal to several teams at the end of the round.
Note: Houston lost its first-round pick as part of MLB’s punishment for the sign-stealing scheme.
(Top photos: Associated Press, USA Today, courtesy of Arizona State)
