We’re now just 13 days out from this year’s abbreviated MLB Draft, which is still shaping up to be a college-heavy affair. The lack of a regular spring season also has deprived high school players, especially pitchers, of the opportunity to move up draft boards — “pop-up” guys, in the vernacular — and balance the first round more between college and high school players.
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Signability information is just starting to appear for some players — I’ve heard bonus demands as high as $5 million — and as more leaks out, it will likely change the picture for the next mock draft June 3.
1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
This seems more solidly Torkelson than it did two weeks ago, although I still can’t rule out Austin Martin or Asa Lacy here, especially if the Tigers want to shop their bonus around and see if they can save to go over-slot in Round 2.
2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt
I still think it’s whichever of Torkelson or Martin doesn’t go No. 1, but there are some rumblings they would take Heston Kjerstad on a discount. I have heard a few times they won’t go with a pitcher here.
3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
If Lacy had had a full spring, he might have ended up at No. 1 overall; he was that dominant when he did pitch, including an outing in which he made Nick Gonzales “look like a little kid” in the words of one scout.
4. Kansas City Royals: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek (Fla.) HS
I had them taking Veen on an under-slot deal last time and I’ve heard that rumor again since then — although there’s always the risk I’m hearing my own projections repeated back to me after some kind of rumor-mill laundering process — in part because of the belief the Royals would prefer a bat after they’ve restocked the system with arms in the last two drafts. I’ve heard they’re cool on Gonzales.
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
I’ve heard the Jays on Hancock, Max Meyer, Reid Detmers, and to a lesser degree Gonzales, as it seems like everyone expects them to take a fairly safe college arm.
6. Seattle Mariners: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
Detmers has the best command in the draft, working 88-93 mph with three average or better pitches but perhaps lacking a clear swing and miss offering. He’s probably the closest to the majors of any college starter in the draft. I’ve heard the Mariners with him, Hancock or Gonzales.
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7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS, New Mexico State
This seems to be Gonzales’ floor, and he may get here given that the last real look scouts had at him was his rough series at sea level against Texas A&M, but I don’t think he gets past the Pirates. If he’s gone, they could go with Patrick Bailey or Heston Kjerstad.
8. San Diego Padres: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
If Meyer were 2 inches taller, he would probably be in consideration at No. 1 given his 70 fastball and 70 slider combination; the only real knocks on him are that he’s a 6-foot right-hander and that he throws his slider an inordinate amount. The Padres do remain the most likely team in the first 10 to go with a high school pick, although it would likely be a position player rather than a pitcher, with Hassell and Veen the probable targets.
9. Colorado Rockies: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
The Rockies have tended to go for position players when one they especially like is on the board for them, rather than just defaulting to pitching as you might assume given their home environment. I could see them taking Veen if he’s here. I don’t know if they’d go with Meyer, who isn’t their type (they usually prefer taller pitchers, 6-foot-2 and up, at least in the first round), but he’d help them quickly.
10. Los Angeles Angels: Robert Hassell III, OF, Independence (Tenn.) HS
If one of the college arms listed above slips, I think they’d go that direction, especially Meyer given his proximity to the majors.
11. Chicago White Sox: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
Bailey is an offensive catcher but projects to stay at the position long-term, fitting the White Sox philosophy of going college in the first round even if they want to take higher-ceiling high school guys later.
12. Cincinnati Reds: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
Cavalli did himself a world of good in his brief time pitching this spring, vaulting himself into somewhere in the top 20 picks with a plus fastball/plus slider combination, throwing more strikes once he was no longer a two-way player.
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13. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (Calif.) HS
I’ve heard them quite a bit with Soderstrom and Pennsylvania lefty Nick Bitsko, who never got on the mound in a game this spring and only reclassified for the 2020 draft in the fall (he was originally in the class of 2021). Soderstrom is an offensive catcher who’s worked out at third base and would move there in pro ball.
14. Texas Rangers: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
I’ve heard Texas on a seemingly random assortment of names, but the one that has come up most often is the very steady if low-ceiling Baylor shortstop Loftin, who rarely strikes out and projects to stay at short.
15. Philadelphia Phillies: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) School
Crow-Armstrong bulked up this winter and is one of the best defenders in the draft class, bringing a nice floor of a clear big leaguer (because of the glove) who hits for some average, and some more upside if the power he flashed this spring is a sign of power to come.
16. Chicago Cubs: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny (Penn.) HS
Hendrick has some of the best power in the high school class this year but has been dinged a bit for his age (he’ll turn 19 in mid-June) and didn’t get to play at all this spring.
17. Boston Red Sox: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
Miller has been up to 98 mph as a starter with an above-average slider, showing some effort in the delivery but missing plenty of bats for the Cardinals, with mid-rotation or closer potential.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS
Unless Bitsko goes No. 13, I think Abel will be the first high school pitcher taken, despite not pitching this spring because the season never started. The Diamondbacks did hit it big with high school arms last year, taking Blake Walston and Brennan Malone (the latter since traded for Starling Marte), and are willing to take bigger risks in the draft than they had under previous regimes.
19. New York Mets: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS
I don’t think the Mets would take a high school arm here, but I think they’d be open to any good high school hitter who falls, with college pitching as a decent backup.
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20. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
Mitchell has clear first-round tools, including 80 speed and the potential to stay in center field, but questions about his swing and his health with Type 1 diabetes have him off some teams’ boards. The Brewers have quite a bit of history of taking guys like Mitchell, like Keston Hiura (didn’t play the field his junior year because of arm trouble) and Nathan Kirby (missed time his junior year because of injury), as players who fell for reasons unrelated to performance or potential.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
Crochet has two clearly plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and he (like Meyer) could probably pitch in relief in the majors this year. He only made one appearance for the Vols this spring, an unannounced relief appearance, before the shutdown.
22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
A first-round talent out of high school, Wilcox has the elements the Nats tend to favor in draft prospects, including big velocity, size and a track record.
23. Cleveland Indians: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS
Cleveland hasn’t taken a college player in the first round since 2014, and recently they’ve favored prep arms who’ve slipped for nonperformance concerns. Kelley was the top or No. 2 RHP in the class coming into the spring, but scouts have said his conditioning was questionable when he pitched before the shutdown.
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State
Dingler converted to catcher after his freshman year, so he’s a better athlete than you typically see at the position, with above-average catch and throw tools, but he’s been banged up a lot and there are questions on how much impact he’ll have with the bat. He’s kind of the opposite of Austin Wells, a bat-first catcher who probably moves to another position in pro ball and could slip into the late first round just as a hitter.
25. Atlanta Braves: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
Jarvis picked up about 9 mph from last year, when he went undrafted as an age-eligible sophomore, to this year, and could also be a money-saver (as Atlanta did last year with Shea Langeliers) so Atlanta could go over-slot with one or more later picks. I have heard they’re likely to be very high school-heavy in this draft.
26. Oakland Athletics: Aaron Sabato, 1B, UNC
The draft-eligible sophomore Sabato has huge exit velocities, patience and power, and got off to a great start this year before the shutdown.
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27. Minnesota Twins: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
Beeter has the best breaking ball in the draft and above-average velocity from a high slot, although this is the first year he showed even average control and there’s some concern about his fastball playing down. I’ve heard him linked to a few teams that particularly value pitch characteristics available from TrackMan and other systems.
28. New York Yankees: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State
I don’t know about Ginn’s signability — he’s an age-eligible sophomore, out with Tommy John surgery, and already turned down $2 million-plus two years ago from the Dodgers — but the Yankees have done this before, taking Clarke Schmidt off Tommy John in 2017 (which is working out well so far), and aren’t afraid of shorter college right-handers.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Lange, RHP, Llano (Texas) HS
Lange put on a ton of muscle in the last year and saw his velocity jump about 8 mph, to where he was hitting 99 mph this spring, and is a tremendous athlete with size and agility. In past years, he might have gone in the top 10, but he didn’t get to show that velocity all spring, and teams in general are backing away from high school arms in this draft.
Note: Houston lost its first-round pick as part of MLB’s punishment for the sign-stealing scheme.
(Photo of Asa Lacy: Sam Craft / Associated Press)
