Klawchat 8/16/18.

My wrap-up of all the games I saw at Gen Con earlier this month is now up over at Paste. For Insiders, I wrote up how Shane Baz affects the Archer trade balance, plus notes on Adam Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers from the Phillies, Rockies, and Cleveland systems.

Also, I’m co-hosting another family board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in Wilmington on Friday night, August 17th, starting at 5:30 pm. You can bring your own games or just bring yourselves, as last time there were probably two dozen games there between the library’s collection and games others brought. All ages are welcome and there will be kids there.

Keith Law: Damn the dark, damn the light. Klawchat.

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.
Keith Law: No. Hate ’em.

Ryan: do you see the braves trading any prospects this winter for a veteran? if so whose most likely to go?
Keith Law: I think they’ll do what they just did for Duvall – trade from the surplus, the edges of the system, not the core prospects. You keep the Toukis and the Goharas and the Sorokas (if healthy), but trade the Sims.

addoeh: Which is better; to have more hits than Sadaharu Oh or mad hits like Rod Carew?
Keith Law: Neither. Better to be clutch like Piazza.

Kevin: How would you currently rank the White Sox farm system? Have the injuries impacted their overall ranking? It seems they have been hurt more than prior years.
Keith Law: Tough year for them, still near the top in terms of high-upside talent, only graduated one major guy (I think?) from my list.

JG: Nick Gordon has had a down season thus far in AAA. Is there cause for concern or needs more time?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and hit everywhere else. I don’t think he’s a star but I believe I’ve been consistent the last few years in saying he’s a regular, and someone who’ll play above his tools because of his feel for the game.

Sean: Have you had a chance to review the international signing rule changes? I have not had a chance to do a deep dive into the new international signing rules. It appears though that these rules just really acknowledge the fact that the majority of those players sign prior to their J2 date. From my point of view nothing is really about to change, do you see the same thing?
Keith Law: Yes, that was my quick take too. Formalizing some of that process can create more transparency, and I think it will help players too, since teams could always try to back out of oral agreements. The rules allowing teams to help players travel for workouts are more important, because there are still players in Venezuela, but going there to scout them is too dangerous.

Brian: Is there a major league future for Mickey Moniak?
Keith Law: I don’t see much of one right now.

Ian: What is a good solution to getting rid of purposeful HBPs? Consequences for the manager? Fine an owner every time a pitcher gets suspended for a beanball? The MLB has to realize that a potential season ending injury for a rising star is not a great idea…
Keith Law: A suspension of more than five games for a pitcher would be great. Urena should be suspended for at least 10 games … I’d say something in the 15-20 range.

Rodney: Great pizza list! I recommend Black Sheep the next time you’re in Minneapolis (equal or better than Pizzeria Lola, imo), and Lovely’s Fifty Fifty when you’re checking out Apizza Scholls in Portland.

On to less important stuff. Should John Gant stay in the rotation when Wacha returns?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t think so. He’s basically a replacement level starter; Wacha should be more than that.

Eric, Washington DC: I am comparing the stats of Scherzer and Nola on ESPN and I’m confused to see that Nola’s WAR is 7.4 compared to 7.0 for Scherzer. Scherzer has better numbers across the board (ERA, WHIP, Ks, Innings) so I’m wondering why he’s behind Nola. Any ideas?
Keith Law: Yes, Baseball Reference makes some small adjustments such as considering the caliber of competition the pitchers faced. They explain all of that in more detail here than I could do justice to in a chat.

Jaipur rules: What do you think would be a better 2019 plan for the Cubs? Sign Machado to play 3rd, move Baez to SS and Bryant to LF and look to trade Russell/Schwarber. Or sign Harper to play OF, keep the Infield as is and potentially trade Schwarber. It seems like both offensively and defensively Option A might be better?
Keith Law: Option A is better than B, but is either really necessary? I feel like their offense is fine, and they still have some surplus there, but they still need and will continue to need help on the pitching side, rotation and bullpen.

Brian: You mentioned on Twitter the need for people to stop scouting based on stat line. That left me wondering If you’ve got a player who isn’t old for his level, what accounts for a guy who isn’t a prospect posting a huge stat line? Is it a fluke? A guy hitting mistakes that won’t get made at higher levels, etc?
Keith Law: It can be a fluke. It can absolutely be a guy hitting minor-league caliber stuff, or getting away with things that better pitchers – with better stuff or command – will exploit.

Bighen: If Mets hire a new Gm and force him (or her) to try to compete in 2019 what is their best path? They’re not signing machado, Harper etc and improving around the margins on a ~75 win team probably not getting it done. That being said the last two months have made it look like they have 3 aces. Or an ace and two top end SP anyway. Hard to see how they do it wo the will to spend.
Keith Law: I agree. If I were asked to take that job, I’d be talking three-year plans, not one-year. You have talent on the ML roster, and talent coming, but not enough to turn this team into a contender (without a LOT of luck/good health) next year unless you’re spending.

Grover: I’ve heard you express your doubts as to whether or not Julio Urias can recapture any semblance of what made him a top prospect: is your concern more with whether or not he will ever get his stuff back, or durability because of the nature of his shoulder injury?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher who’s had this surgery has truly come back; some never return, and those who have have returned with reduced stuff. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs saw Urias in Arizona and reported that his stuff was indeed down.

Lyle: Earlier this season Eric Filia was traded for Roenis Elias but the Red Sox sent Filia back for a failed physical. Since then, Filia has basically played every day for the M’s AA team. So…what kind of injury causes a player to fail a physical for one team and play every day for another?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, we had Dustin McGowan in our system, and knew he had a partial tear of his UCL, but he pitched through it without issue for about four years until it finally snapped. He would have failed a review of medicals in a trade, but he was able to pitch.

Grover: Is there a stat to track who has hit the most rally killing homers?
Keith Law: Someone get Elias on this, stat.

tmh: Do you see Jesus Luzardo as a #2 or more of a mid-rotation guy?
Keith Law: More mid-rotation until the breaking ball improves.

Murphy: What would you do to discourage pitchers from intentionally throwing at hitters?
Keith Law: If you suspend the pitchers long enough, it will end the practice.

redsoxfan: Dio you still think Mitch Keller has ace potential? Last night start in AAA was encouraging but has struggled. Has hje developed a passable 3rd pitch yet?
Keith Law: Potential, yes. Third pitch is not there, however, and at some point it becomes foolish to assume it will be.

clb: Are Kirilloff and Franco both top 15 guys next year?
Keith Law: Franco will get there strictly from graduations, I think. Kirilloff is a stud but I don’t think top 15, not yet.

michael: do you think the giants farm system is getting on track and maybe even on the upswing? bart / hjelle seemed to be reasonable picks based upon your pre-draft rankings. their international signings (like luciano) seemed to be good. Are we another solid draft away from potentially being an above average farm system?
Keith Law: No, a few drafts from that. I didn’t like Bart at pick 2. Hjelle I did. They’ve had a down year with existing prospects, too.

CD: In the last chat you mentioned that Richie Martin is not a good defensive SS. That’s the first time I’ve heard that. One of the main reasons Oakland drafted him in the first round was because of his defensive ability. How/why did he regress since being drafted?
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was good as a junior at Florida. He was fast, but erratic, and his hands weren’t great.

Neil: Lewis Thorpe’s stats have been bonkers since June. Has he taken a step forward?
Keith Law: I only saw him in DC and it wasn’t a promising outing. I’d be glad to see him become a serious prospect, as I think it helps when players from less common markets break out, but the stuff isn’t quite there.

Randy: Are you gonna try to see Luis Robert before the season ends? Hopefully he doesn’t get injured the day before you go like the last couple times!
Keith Law: They don’t come near me again. I’m hoping he ends up in Fall League.

Harry: What do you say to those so-called traditionalists who defend Urena
Keith Law: Go watch cockfighting instead. More your speed.

Jeremy: How annoyed are you of vlad Jr being in the minors ? Nothing bother me more in baseball
Keith Law: It’s kind of ridiculous now. I was trying to eyeball how many wins they’d lost by having Morales etc as their DHs this season instead of Vlad. Three felt about right.

Warbiscuit: Odds of you going back to Auburn in the spring to scout Will Holland and/or Davis Daniel?
Keith Law: Slim. Sorry.

Ryan: Have you heard anything about the Mets Kingsport roster? Very early in their careers, but there seems to be a lot of potential talent on that roster.
Keith Law: Yes. Kelenic’s on another tear now.

John: Will DeGrom set a new standard for worst W-L to win a Cy Young?
Keith Law: I would enjoy that and its aftermath very much. My colleague Michael Wilbon had some rather outdated thoughts on the subject the other day.

Rob: So Will Myers at 3rd did not look “terrible” from my eye. With all the outfield guys they’re trying out and Hosmer (sadly) locked in, would you spend the off season trying this out? As far as I can tell 3b is one of the few places the Padres don’t have elite prospects coming.
Keith Law: Potts is pretty damn good. And one or more of those shortstops will move to third eventually. But for next year, moving Myers back to 3b would be a great idea.

Joe: If you’re the Braves, do you put Touki in the big league rotation and let him go or do you use him kind of like D. Price in his rookie year out of the bullpen to limit his innings?
Keith Law: Break him in slowly now, as a long reliever, but he’s in the rotation in April for me.

Andre: Was at Bryse Wilson’s start last night in Gwinnett. He was filthy from start to finish. Is he a DUDE/what’s his potential?
Keith Law: Was on my midyear top 50. I’m a huge fan. Great pick in the 4th round, great work by player development to clean him up too.

john: How much should we be concerned about Faedos drop in speed and dominancy? Seems like he went from a 2-3 guy to back end guy.
Keith Law: I was a little bearish on him in the draft – I saw a slider-heavy guy without a fastball that was good enough to make him a potential 2.

DevilExpos: Thoughts on Brandon Lowe? Is there anyone else you like in the Rays system that isn’t as heralded as Jesus/McKay and could breakout soon like Lowe did this season? Solak? Brock Burke? Joe McCarthy?
Keith Law: I do like McCarthy, but his upside is probably capped if he doesn’t gain power somewhere. Ronaldo Hernandez might be a star. I’m still a Lucius Fox fan. Michael Mercado has looked really good despite so-so results.

Justin : The Boston Globe is getting threats for running an editorial claiming a free press is not the enemy. Are these the end times?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ben: Did the Acuna HBP appear intentional to you?
Keith Law: 100%.

Kosmo: Love your work Keith! Maybe as a rangers fan I’m desperate for one of our young pitchers to turn out good, but joe palumbo looks great coming off the injury. Do you think he has mid-rotation potential?
Keith Law: I would just barely take the under on this.

Dan: Is Kyle Tucker going to be okay?
Keith Law: He’s 21. Yes.

Mike: Keith, the Braves just signed up to be a high-visibility sponsor for a fundraising event for the Republican candidate for governor. He is virulently anti-immigrant. How do you think the Braves players feel about that?
Keith Law: He’s not just anti-immigrant. He has a history of voter suppression and targeting minority groups that try to encourage people of color to vote.

RB: What’s going on with Anderson Espinoza? Do you think he can regain form post-injury, whenever that is?
Keith Law: We’ll see next year. I don’t think he was expected to see the mound in games this year.

Lark11: Is there any hope for Robert Stephenson? He’s issuing 4-pitch walks to opposing pitchers and missing his location on some pitches by 3 feet. Is there any lingering basis on which to hope for improvements in control/command? If not, is there any role in which he can actually provide positive production? Thanks!
Keith Law: He’s one of the bigger disappointments for me in the last few years because the stuff has been so damn good but he has made zero progress in three seasons. Putting him in the bullpen probably isn’t going to solve anything, either; this isn’t about lacking stuff to turn over a lineup, but about not throwing enough strikes.

Devon: Keith, do you think Tampa Bay will take its time developing Wander Franco? Would a monster performance force their hand or will they stick to org. philosophy?
Keith Law: I’ll predict he’s in the majors before he turns 20.

Deke: Understand if you can’t answer this, but listening to you guest-hosting for Buster recently, is it difficult for you to do some of the ad live-reads? I felt like I was listening to a pod person hearing you speak highly of certain hot dogs and certain beers.
Keith Law: I was trying very hard not to crack up while reading those. Especially the one for a mass-market beer I wouldn’t drink if you paid me.

Chris: Any GM candidates you’d like to see get a look this offseason?
Keith Law: The Mets are supposedly going to interview my old mentor from Toronto, Tony Lacava, who would be a superb choice, and would fit the alleged ‘old-school’ preference while giving them someone who was also very quick to adapt to the analytical side too. I’ve also seen other names I would recommend on their potential interview list – Bobby Heck, Jared Porter, Ben Cherington, any of whom would be a very good hire.

JP: what would be your AL MVP ballot as of today?
Keith Law: Betts, Ramirez, Trout.

Scott: With LeMahieu about to be a free agent and Story looking like a regular for now, would you shift Brendan Rodgers over to 2B next season or is Garrett Hampson someone you think is worth giving an every day opportunity to in the meantime?
Keith Law: I prefer Rodgers at short to Hampson. There are scouts who disagree and scouts (more) who think both end up at other positions.

Matt: Outside of recent draft picks, are there any rules regarding PTBNLs? If team A wanted a specific young major leaguer but team B wanted to keep him for a current playoff run, could they agree on him and complete the trade after the season?
Keith Law: You can’t rent a player like that. There are rules on PTBNLs. I don’t have them handy right now.

JP: does Greg Bird have the skills (and health) to be an above-average 1B?
Keith Law: Defensively? No shot.

Jack: So what did you see from Adam Haseley?
Keith Law: My Insider post on him will be up shortly. I already filed it.

Brian: Bukauskus has been pitching well this season. Was it just a matter of him getting healthy?
Keith Law: He was recovering from a serious car accident.

J: Obviously a SSS since the trade, but could the Tigers have stolen a player in Wili Castro?
Keith Law: I raved about him in my writeup of the deal.

Dave: These chat are too fun, Keith. You’re gonna have to be knocked down.
Keith Law: Dammit, Jose.

Nick Taylor: Book recommendation: “There There” by Tommy Orange. Gritty realist novel of linked stories, a la Jennifer Egan’s “Goon Squad,” with a cast of Native American characters living in Oakland. Climax is a huge powwow (festival) on the field at the Coliseum. Best novel I’ve read this year. Watch this guy Orange…
Keith Law: Thank you! Hadn’t heard of this.

Van Skike: Should the Reds give Siri a September call-up this year?
Keith Law: I’m more interested in how they call him up. “Hey, Siri!”
Keith Law: (Also: No. He’s not hitting in AA.)

The Bilmo: Very reasonable pizza list! Many I’ve been to, many more I’m looking forward to. Assuming you’ve enjoyed Pepe’s white clam, have you tried Zuppardi’s white clam in neabry West Haven? Many (not me) say it beats Pepe’s. It’s awfully good (the clams are shucked to order), and the fact that there can even be a Pepe’s/Zuppardi’s debate makes it noteworthy.
Keith Law: I have tried Pepe’s white clam pizza and don’t like it at all. I don’t think clams belong on pizza. Or anywhere with cheese involved.

J: Better chance of rebounding/becoming a good starter? Faedo or Burrows?
Keith Law: I think Burrows is a high probability starter.

Lark11: Honest question: to this point in his career, is Mike Trout the best baseball player in the history of the sport?
Keith Law: I would say so. I tend to favor contemporary players over past ones, because the level of competition today is so much higher. The best player in the world in 1910 had a lower bar to clear than the best player today.

leprekhan: Who is the Braves’ prospect whose stock has gone up the most in your eyes? What players have seen their stock go down the most?
Keith Law: Drew Waters had the biggest turnaround, after looking bad last summer, now hitting well enough to get promoted midseason.

Jeff: Jarred Kelenic and Shervyen Newton are basically the same age at the same level. Newton has show so far at his previous levels his ability to get on base . I understand that at this age part of a prospects ranking is a projection, I was just wondering what makes Kelenic such a better prospect than Newton and if you are high in Newton at all?
Keith Law: Different tool sets. I do like Newton.

Rick: Are Eloy and Vlad Jr, both going to be held down until mid-April 2019 at this point? What other reason is there for them not to be up right now?
Keith Law: No real reason other than service time.

Brett: Are there any issues with Kirilloffs approach at the plate? It seems like he swings at everything (but also hits everything).
Keith Law: No. An aggressive approach is only an issue when you don’t hit.

Devon: Keith, has Will Smith passed Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Ruiz is 19. Really?

Ryan: If Brice Turang never develops more than some modest gap power, what is his ceiling as a player overall? Is there enough else there to sustain a 4-win player?
Keith Law: I question whether he’ll hit enough to be a 4-win player.

Dan: What do you think the ceiling is for Brusdar Graterol?
Keith Law: If you think he can start, he’s a 2/3. Command will hold him back from more. Scouts I have asked about him think there’s a lot of closer to him, reflecting the stuff, the style of pitching, and the lack of present command.

WarBiscuit: Does the minor league lifestyle play a deterrent role in parents sending their kids to college ball, particularly if they don’t get a good draft selection or offer? Obviously I still think the Brady Aikens, Carter Stewart and JT Ginn’s of the world should take the money and run. As a student of a major DI baseball school, the college does provide free food that’s actually nutritious to the baseball players and can at least sleep in comfortable beds, where as the lack of pay can prevent a nutritious diet and and can cut into your signing bonus which can turn into 5 figures after taxes. It may be better on a baseball development perspective depending on the coach for those reasons. Obviously if it’s Rice/UVA/Stanford it is not as good, but if it’s Florida/Vandy, it may be better. I think MLB teams should pay minimum wage for the season’s length or at least provide better diets to the minor league grinders. I’m sure you have more to say on this.
Keith Law: I do hear this occasionally from parents and often from college coaches and even players who went to college – the minor league life ain’t fun, but college ball can be. I get that. If college coaches as a whole did a better job of developing players – using pitchers responsibly, teaching hitters to hit instead of fucking bunting in the motherfucking first inning i’m not angry – I’d be more of an advocate for college. Some schools, like the ones you named (Florida, Vandy), do a better job than others. I think the individual school matters tremendously. And MLB doing an end run around the courts to avoid paying a living wage to minor leaguers was a disgrace.

Junior : Billy Eppler has completely change the Angels farm system to a top ten system. Do you agree?
Keith Law: He’s changed it to an above-average system.

Kwame : Who (in an ideal/optimized world) plays first base for the Mets next year. Also can you post the link you used to put on twitter that outlines fallacies?
Keith Law: Smith should probably play every day from here on out, with the plan to transition to Alonso at some point next spring … if Alonso’s defense is good enough. I don’t think it is right now. Yourlogicalfallacyis.com is the site you want.

Larry: Madrigal slugging .340 in the low minors. Please tell me the 4th pick in the country has more than 30 power.
Keith Law: I thought he had 35 power so … yes?

Zac: Please tell me the Jays will call up Vlad Jr when rosters expand?
Keith Law: I don’t think they will.

JP: is there no worthy pizza in Boston? Regina’s?
Keith Law: Overrated. Never had Santarpios, which gets some raves, and which many locals will tell you is good if you’re drunk and it’s 2 am.

Zach D: Ever have your child throw a board game at you cause you beat her? I mean, that’s how you make your competition feel uncomfortable or something
Keith Law: We just rapid-fire meeples at each other.

andy: OK. I get it. Small sample size. But should I be encouraged by Grant Lavigne’s performance in the Pioneer League (a hitter’s league, for sure). I know you wrote that he might have had a higher pre-draft grade if he were from a warm weather state. Has his performance backed that up further?
Keith Law: Go look at past seasons for the Grand Junction club, and how many hitters have gone bananas there, even at young ages, but never panned out. I wouldn’t really alter my view on Lavigne until he’s at sea level.

Nick: Garver Alston said that he could see Dakota Chalmers being an “organization changer.” Is there any reason to believe there could be any truth to that or is that just him blowing smoke?
Keith Law: I strongly disagree with that assessment. Also he’s out with TJ so he’s not changing anything just yet.

Kingpin: And a follow up…should Lulen Baker be at a higher level considering he is a college hitter in Low-A?
Keith Law: He’s in the Appy, no? Gorman belongs there, Baker I’d have moved up by now.

Josh : Taylor Ward seemed to come out of nowhere, wasn’t on any top 100 lists yet the buzz appears to be high on him…. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Didn’t belong on top 100 lists. Was old for AA, raked in a hitter’s park in AAA. Has power, fair hit tool, unclear position.

Adam: Have you come around on Camargo’s bat at all? If he is this player is he a regular?
Keith Law: He isn’t this player.

Adam: I had never seen Touki pitch before his debut. How on earth does that curve break that way from that arm slot?!?!
Keith Law: He’s always had an insanely loose arm, and great arm speed. He’s among the most fun pitching prospects to watch because he can do so many things so easily.

Chuck: Was David Bote on any scouts radar as any kind of a prospect? Sure, it’s a SSS, but you have to love how he plays the game and what he brings offensively and defensively. I guess he’s a reminder that scouting isn’t an exact science.
Keith Law: He was #12 on my Cubs ranking preseason, so I guess he’s a reminder that you should read the stuff I write?

Tracy: Have you read any Philip K Dick books? I don’t recall any mentions of his works from you.
Keith Law: I’ve read sixteen of his novels.

Jax : So Profar’s had a pretty good year. He should put up even better numbers going forward, right?
Keith Law: He’s had a solid year. I still feel like there’s much more in there.

Nate: If you felt comfortable projecting ke’bryan Hayes to hit 20 homers would he be a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Top 10 is awfully steep. I can only put ten guys in there.

Aaron C.: Your pizza list — and the discussion it produced — was fun! I remember a few years ago, you ranked rap songs. Have you done any other “Dish” lists that I can peruse to waste time at work today?
Keith Law: Novels, back in 2013ish. I need to update that. Then annual rankings of songs etc.

Jaime : Remember that NYT cartoon about how freedom of speech works? Yeah, the firing of James Gunn was Disney (and everyone) letting him know his jokes were trash. It’s not a good look for you when you defend him.
Keith Law: I did not defend him. I thought his jokes were trash.

Guest: more likely to have better career: ian happ or hunter renfroe; jake junis or jake faria
Keith Law: Happ. faria.

Oscar: Monsanto has to pay 289 million for roundup giving a man cancer, yet we’re supposed to believe GMO’s are safe based on the studies they fund, and ignore their questionable history to boot? Count me out.
Keith Law: Monsanto may have to pay a man something because 12 idiots believed a lawyer’s claims that Roundup gave the man cancer, despite a lack of any scientific evidence to support this. Cancer doesn’t even need a cause. The jury system is utterly useless for adjudicating questions of science.

Joe: Keith, thank you for the write-up of Gen Con games. I asked you in a chat years ago about a game that would work well for someone who was blind. My wife Martha lost most of her vision when she was 20 years old. She loves to play games but most games don’t work well for her. We’re looking forward to trying your No. 1 recommendation.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. Nyctophobia should be in Targets any day now – mine had a space for it on the shelf but no copies as of last week.

Richard: Kevin Smith seemingly came out of nowhere and is raking in Lansing. Do you see a future regular SS in him?
Keith Law: I do not. He also hasn’t been in Lansing since early June, and isn’t hitting that well in Dunedin (a more appropriate spot for a 22-year-old college product).

Jax : Were you surprised that Atlanta didn’t dangle Fried at the deadline? And do you think they will this winter? I think he could be really good but it’s difficult to see how he fits into their rotation.
Keith Law: He’d be in that Sims group I mentioned earlier (I know they dealt Sims). Fried pitches in someone’s rotation, but I don’t think he’s top six on their depth chart.

Danny: I live across the street from Franny’s last location before they closed and agree with your take. Please try Emily’s in Crown Heights next time you’re in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Lot of recs for Emily’s.

Karl: Are you buying that Glasnow just needed a change of scenery? Or perhaps too soon to judge?
Keith Law: Too soon to judge. Also entirely possible that he needed a new voice to help him find a delivery he can repeat.

Jesse B: If the 2018 MLB Draft was held today, who would be drafted much higher? Gorman?
Keith Law: You’re dealing with tiny samples for all these guys. I don’t think a ton would change.

Josh : Is Gavin Lux a potential all-star MI?
Keith Law: Potential, yes.

Quincy: I recently discovered (and loved!) your 100 favorite novels list. I wondered if you could comment on why none of Solzhenitsyn’s or Tolstoy’s works made your list. Not a fan personally, or do you see their work as less than excellent?
Keith Law: Don’t think Tolstoy’s works hold up that well at all – the reputation Russian novels have for excessive length and meandering plots falls primarily on him. I’ve only read one of Solzhenitsyn’s novels, Ivan Denisovich, and didn’t love it.
Keith Law: I’ve read almost 1000 novels now, so making my top 100 would mean something would have to be in the top 10% of everything I’ve read.

Jax : Do you think Giolito needs an off-season to get his shit straight? He’s at least looked decent recently and his velo is back up to 93-95.
Keith Law: He’s looked better recently outside of that one outing vs the Yanks (and giving up a grand slam to Stanton is … well, forgivable?). But overall it’s not the year I expected, especially since all reports in March had him repeating his delivery and commanding the ball in a way he hasn’t really all season.

Ron: A question I just thought of because work is boring me: Who is the best team in the NL? My initial reaction is the Cubs, but the pitching staff and uncertainty with Bryant’s shoulder makes me nervous. Arizona might be the top choice, right?
Keith Law: Gut answer is the Cubs. I won’t argue Arizona.

Anthony: How much of a long term cause for concern is Hunter Greene’s UCL injury
Keith Law: It depends a bit on how serious the sprain is. At this point, they’re acting like it will only require rest. But a sprain typically means a tear, even a tiny one. (It can sometimes mean the ligament has been stretched to the point of causing pain or discomfort, but it’s a fine line between that and the beginnings of a UCL tear.)

Greg: Harrison Bader outperforming your expectation? Baseball Reference at 3.5 WAR now
Keith Law: WAR doesn’t do that well with part-time players (which he was for much of the season) when they’re used for platoon purposes. He still has nearly 40% of his PA vs LHP, whom he has killed, but has been way below average, probably near replacement level, vs RHP.

Greg: I happened to be at an event where Chvrches played recently, and I got a quick second to meet Lauren Mayberry. Even though I avoid meeting my idols out of fear of disappoint, I couldn’t pass this one up, and she was maybe the nicest, most polite person I’ve ever encountered and I have no question but just wanted to say that there are still good things in the world.
Keith Law: That’s awesome to hear although unsurprising given her writings and the interviews I’ve seen. Also I’m a fan because I’m pretty sure she’s shorter than I am.

Jake: Kyle Isbel has been raking since entering Pro ball, as a KC fan, is this a guy I should be excited about?
Keith Law: I’m on it, but next year in high-A will be a real test of what he is.

John: I saw Schilling tear into Olberman the other day regarding his Monday Night Baseball broadcasting job. I actually enjoyed the broadcast very much and wish Kieth were on more often? Do you know Olberman at all?
Keith Law: I’d say that’s a badge of honor for Keith. I have talked to Keith a few times, and was on his show several times a few years ago. He’s off the charts intelligent and really knows his shit about baseball – and we still disagree on stuff. Also, if you ask ESPN people who worked with him, they all marvel at how fast he could absorb material and how long he could speak extemporaneously on air.

Matt: Not going overboard, but did you see this kind of year from Andujar? He never seemed to project to this, but ignored he can maintain this he is a solid regular.
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular, trending towards a 55 rather than a 50. Had him on my top 100 in the winter and argued that they didn’t need to acquire a 3b because he could do it.

Mike : What major-league team’s record that you are most surprised at this year ?
Keith Law: Phillies on the up side, Nats on the down side.

Sam: How would you rank all of the Mission Impossible movies?
Keith Law: I saw the first one and stopped.

Ryan: Does Fredy Peralta ever develop enough command to be an above average big league starter?
Keith Law: It’s not command – it’s stuff.

Tracy: Also, another book question. Have you read GK Chesterton? Father Brown books?
Keith Law: Only The Man Who Was Thursday, which is weird and probably not that great as a novel but still kind of wonderful for its strangeness.

mickey: what’s the first thing I should try cooking in my new sous vide device?
Keith Law: Serious Eats’ chicken thighs recipe. Easy and fantastic.

Mike: This may be a very personal question, and if so, I apologize. Do you send your daughter to public school in Delaware, or private school? No judgement either way, just curious.
Keith Law: Charter school. I would not pay for private school. Delaware does underfund its public schools, unfortunately – my taxes are shockingly low – and we discovered that class sizes were too big in our local elementary school.

Zach: See you finally made it to Spacca Napoli. Thoughts? (That was me who created the pizza map)
Keith Law: Yes, two years ago, I think – the day Schilling was fired by ESPN for the transphobic meme. I nearly missed my flight because the news broke and my phone blew up. The meal was amazing, though. Would go back in a heartbeat.

Jake: Keith, give me an under the radar name to watch for among KC prospects.
Keith Law: I don’t have one for you. You know the good ones. Below that, it drops off quickly.

Rick C: Who would be your NL MVP right now? The top three position players are all at 5.0 fWAR, though deGrom, Scherzer, and Corbin are ahead of them.
Keith Law: deGrom.

Royals Fan in DC: Which Wilmington Blue Rock has improved his MLB prospect status the most this season? We Royals fans need a glimmer of hope.
Keith Law: Khalil Lee but he’s long gone from Wilmington. The team now is void of prospects. Next year we could have Matias, Melendez, Pratto, Isbel, and the five college starters they just drafted.

Dr. Bob: I am in complete agreement on the idiocy of relying on pitcher wins and losses. However, I was reminded of Steve Carlton going 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games in his first of four Cy Young seasons. The 27 wins represented 46% of the Phillies wins. Flawed stat, but that’s quite a season.
Keith Law: I agree. And pitcher wins, while always flawed, were slightly less so when pitchers were able to work much deeper into games. But now they throw a lot harder, and relievers throw harder than that, and we know teams are more likely to win by pulling the starter after 3x through the order (or sooner).

Nick: Next big competitive advantage a team will figure out and l leverage in player development ? My guess is it’s gotta be health related.
Keith Law: I was asked that by a writer 12+ years ago, in my last spring with Toronto. That was my answer then and it’s still my answer now.

Ryan: Would you be able to name a beer or 2 that you would consider your favorite?
Keith Law: Evolution Lot #3 IPA.

HugoZ: Wouldn’t it be wiser to simply state that every mlb team should avoid the perception that it’s favoring a particular candidate,whatever his or her ideology, so as to avoid alienating part of the fan base?
Keith Law: I mostly agree with this. However, if one of your candidates is a white supremacist, that’s where you make the exception. (And there are quite a few running this November.)

Brett: Not a question, but as a direct result of followin your chats and your work, my outfield in fantasy baseball next year (Keeper league) will be Acuna, Soto and Jimenez.
Keith Law: That seems good.

Nick: Do you think Bobby Dalbec is legit? How does he compare to other Sox infield prospects like Chavis and Ockimey?
Keith Law: Dalbec is way better than Ockimey. Contact rate is way too low. He makes extremely hard contact when he hits it though and is using the whole field now. Huge power, 80 arm, a lot better on defense. I just can’t find a good comp for a hitter with his strikeout rate at his age.

John: Is the whole, “It’s the water” thing true when it comes to why New York pizza is awesome and Delaware pizza sucks?
Keith Law: The water thing is bullshit.

Joe: Scherzer has given up twice as many HRs as Nola. Is this, and should it be, a significant factor in determining WAR?
Keith Law: It’s not in B-R’s formulation. Theirs is based on runs allowed – a run is a run.

Jake: Keith, several KC prospect sites i follow portray Kahlil Lee as a potential “5 tool guy”…is this the case?
Keith Law: That’s not wrong. He can show you enough of all five that you could argue that, but I think he’ll end up more an average runner.

Hank: What’s the holdup on declaring Victor Victor Mesa a FA?
Keith Law: Has he been cleared by OFAC? That’s out of MLB’s control.

Brent : Hi Keith, hoped you enjoyed your time in Indy during GenCon. Curious if you made any food stops during your visit? Thanks.
Keith Law: Milktooth twice, Izzy’s once (i had the shrimp cocktail and couldn’t feel my face), and the rest from all those great food trucks.

Jo-Nathan: Why hasn’t Houston moved Tony Kemp to 2B, and just played Marwin in the OF; Kemp just doesn’t seem to have a lot of range in the OF.
Keith Law: Kemp was really bad at 2b as an amateur too.

ck: There is plenty of caterwauling in MN about the Twins’ fire sale – from where I sit, with the possible exception of not signing Escobar (assuming they could have), my sense was that everything else they did was smart or at least quite defensible – would you agree? Given the uncertainty with Sano/Buxton they certainly can’t pretend they’re in a position to win soon.
Keith Law: Completely agree with you. They did well. And it was the right move.

Scott: What was your initial impressions of Matt Chapman as a prospect? I feel like his ability to make contact has been a hugely pleasant surprise
Keith Law: You are spot on. His K rate this year is 22.8% in the majors. He was at 28% or higher every stint in AA and AAA. That is the shocking part. I thought he was a 70 defender with an 80 arm and 70 power but a 40 hit tool at best because he struck out so often.

Chris: Mediterranean diet: (1) not worth the effort; (2) great idea, but cumbersome and expensive; or (3) all in?
Keith Law: I don’t follow any specific diet plans.

Chris: I’ve heard (er, read) you sing the praises of a good espresso maker before. But I’ve never really appreciated it until I went from drinking k-cups in the morning (I know, not really coffee) to making my own espresso and americanos with a Breville espresso maker. It was expensive to be sure, but life altering. So thanks for getting on that soapbox.
Keith Law: You should all listen to me on food and coffee just never on Chris Sale.

Chris: Hi Keith, I saw a few weeks ago or more that you said you were readin The English Patient. I never saw you review it and I was interested in your thoughts on. Thanks.
Keith Law: I really thought I wrote that up. Found it surprisingly dull and rambling. Couldn’t connect with any of the characters. Maybe I wrote it and never posted it?

Max: I know that you read HP to your daughter. My son is only seven months old, so I’ve got some time, but at what age did you start reading Sorcerer’s Stone to her?
Keith Law: She was 7 3/4. Of course 9 3/4 would have been more poetic but we didn’t want to wait.

Devil’s Advocate: Acuna did not help himself. Either he was guessing away and/or breaking ball or simply hasn’t learned to turn in because his reaction to the pitch was like a catcher crossed up on signs.
Keith Law: She was totally asking for it.

Brett: Why did your wife decide to stop doing her blog? I see you removed it.
Keith Law: Her call. She hadn’t updated it in a while. I’ve encouraged her to continue as I thought it helped her as she dealt with panic disorder (which is something I can only understand as an outsider, having dealt with that only intermittently).

Jimmay: Having read so many award winning books, are there any authors whose entire catalog you’d like to read?
Keith Law: I do that quite a bit. I’ve got two Graham Greene books left. I think I read all of Vonnegut’s works except his final novel.

Chris: I’ve always been a big Plawecki fan. Love the build and think he’s just an all-around decent catcher (which is fine). Let him start next year, right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Sean: Keith, have you read “It Can’t Happen Here” by Sinclair Lewis? I’m reading it now and well, I just can’t even. My fear is that with all of this hope concerning the mid-terms it’ll end up a vast disappointment for the reality-based community
Keith Law: I read and reviewed it in 2011, and reposted it in March of 2016 when it became clear what was happening.

Lee: After this debacle of a presidential administration is over, how do we change the minds/ attitudes of 35% of our electorate that believes facts/science don’t matter? That’s an awful lot of people to just write off.
Keith Law: We can’t. Denialism is extremely tough to undo.

JR: If you made it your full time job, do you think you could win $$ betting MLB (as much as you currently make annually)
Keith Law: No. that’s like trying to play the stock market.

Nick: One pizza recommendation. If you like Neapolitan-style, you should try Naples Street Food the next time you are on Long Island, in Franklin Square. They are fairly new and quite delicious. Very authentic.
Keith Law: Thanks. I never go to LI any more. I don’t have any family left there.

John: One study found limited evidence of a possible increase in one type of cancer from glyphosate, but could no rule out study bias, confounding variables, etc. If we used that standard anyone who gets cancer and ate McDonald’s french fries has a case.
Keith Law: Exactly. But juries don’t understand the scientific method; something like half of American adults don’t understand that the “theory” of evolution is proven, not “only a theory.”

Lee: I know you’ve recently read the Hyperion books by Dan Simmons. Why do you think he’s not more well known? He’s written some fantastic stuff in many different genres.
Keith Law: Genre fiction is disdained by the broader literary community.

Dan: “feel for the game”? I *think* I know what you mean … or do I? Lack of baserunning mistakes a tangible sign of this? But if you personally see a player just once/twice, you wouldn’t see this, necessarily. That info would come from scouts?
Keith Law: I can see this stuff by seeing a player once or twice, but I’ve been watching players for my job for something like 15 years now.

Mac: Do you think the top players will bow out of Jupiter again this year? This is a disturbing trend.
Keith Law: The timing of that event is terrible for pitchers. But the team USA 18U stuff is right afterwards, so if you’re bailing on one, you’re probably out for both.

Tracy: Third book question for me: I think you have a Carson McCullers book in your top 100. Do you recommend any more of her works?
Keith Law: That’s the only one I liked (The Heart is a Lonely Hunter).

Anthony: Will Estevan Florial ever show the plate discipline to access his tools
Keith Law: I think it’s very unlikely. His ability to pick up spin was nil last year when I saw him.

Chris: what terribly unhealthy food do you have trouble resisting?
Keith Law: Ice cream. Oreos. Also ice cream with Oreos.

Dan: The lyric at the top reminded me of something that drives me crazy: deluxe versions of classic albums. If I tell Spotify or iTunes to play “Rumours,” I don’t want two extra songs tacked onto the end. Can I get an amen?
Keith Law: Amen. And usually I want the studio version, not the live one.

Jakob: Bigger travesty: clams or pineapple on pizza? (I would rather eat a shoe than either.)
Keith Law: I’ve never had pizza with pineapples on it, because I’m not a savage.

snood: Keith! this is the first time I’ve recognized your opening song quote.
Keith Law: I drove down to see my family in VA this weekend, and as I passed through Silver Spring, MD, I put on Fleetwood Mac’s The Dance (one of my favorite live albums ever).

Evan: Always read about reliever concerns with Dylan Cease. Are they mostly abated given his progress this season? Does have project toward the top of a rotation?
Keith Law: He’s looked much better overall this year, and he’s stayed healthy too. I’m a buyer again after waffling a little last year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you so much for reading. My Insider post on Baz, Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers is now up. I should be back again next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!