Since I can’t go scout players in person as I usually would, I’ve been watching various young players so far this season to provide scouting-like notes from home, focusing on players who are either still rookies or just recently lost rookie eligibility but haven’t established themselves yet in the majors. This is the fourth in my series of scouting notebooks, covering some performances from the last few days.
Tarik Skubal came into the year as my No. 24 prospect, second in the Tigers’ system behind Casey Mize (who debuted on Wednesday night) and ahead of Matt Manning (who really should be up soon). Skubal, a former ninth-round pick who missed his junior year at the Seattle University while recovering from Tommy John surgery, exploded last year with a dominant season at High A and Double A that saw him punch out 179 batters in 122 2/3 innings with just 37 walks.
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Skubal’s major-league debut on Tuesday night did not quite go as planned, as the 6-foot-3 lefty struggled with command and seemed to have no feel at all for his changeup, which made his fastball much more appetizing to the White Sox’s potent lineup. Skubal was 93-97 mph in the two innings he worked, throwing it for a little more than half of his 52 pitches, but Chicago batters were on it, and he had trouble locating it in the zone. He didn’t get many chases or swings-and-misses, and I think the main reason is that his changeup wasn’t working for him, so the White Sox — who had eight right-handed hitters in their lineup — could sit on the fastball.
You could see the makings of a very good starting pitcher here, though. His fastball has plenty of velocity and the changeup had good separation at 82-84 mph. Both breaking balls looked sharp when he threw them right — his curveball, 74-77 mph, is a classic Uncle Charlie sort of two-planer, while his slider was above-average when he got it to 84-87 mph, although several backed up on him below that range and the White Sox didn’t miss them. But he’s got three pitches that should be average or better, and even a passable changeup would be enough of a starter’s arsenal. Let’s hope Skubal’s erratic command of all of his pitches was a function of nerves rather than an indicator that his command isn’t as good as it appeared to be last year.
The Cardinals called up their top prospect, outfielder Dylan Carlson (No. 23 overall), to try to provide a boost to their offense as they returned from their COVID-19 layoff. Carlson’s had some bad luck so far but has taken great at-bats overall, showing superb plate discipline for a 21-year-old with just a dozen or so games in Triple A. Carlson, a switch-hitter, has just two PA right-handed so far (through Tuesday night), going 1-for-2 from that side. He’s shown he can turn on velocity and likes the ball middle-in, but he’s had hard-hit balls on pitches that were soft down or away — like a 107 mph groundball to the right of second base off a cutter down from the Cubs’ Tyson Miller. His five hardest-hit balls so far have all been outs, four of them lineouts or flyouts. Those batted balls won’t keep finding gloves — he has to keep his approach, however; in his sixth game against Yu Darvish, he started jumping much earlier in the count.
The Nationals called up shortstop Luis Garcia when Starlin Castro broke his wrist, making Garcia the second player and first position-player born in the 2000s to appear in the majors. His debut has gone better statistically than Carlson’s, but with less favorable indicators going forward. Garcia, their No. 2 prospect, did hit his first homer in his third game, turning on a 95 mph first-pitch fastball from Touki Toussaint. There’s also been a lot of weak contact and some trouble adjusting to pitchers working him soft away, whether it’s swinging-and-missing or rolling over. He probably wouldn’t have seen the majors in 2020 had this been a typical year since he spent 2019 in Double A and hit just .257/.280/.337 there, so anything he does this year is a bonus.
(Photo of Skubal: David Banks / Getty Images)
