Sequels rarely live up to the quality of their originals, but in this case, I think Red Sox fans should be happier with the second Mookie Betts trade than they were with the first, which ends up costing the Dodgers a good bit more than they originally paid and leaves the Twins right about where they were when it all started.
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The revised deal is way better for the Red Sox, even if Brusdar Graterol had passed whatever review that caused Boston to balk at the initial trade. Jeter Downs is a top-100 prospect whom the Dodgers acquired last winter in the trade that sent Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood to the Reds. He’s primarily played shortstop but projects as at least an above-average defender at second or third, although he’s probably just an emergency shortstop in the majors. His bat is extremely promising for a middle infielder: He led the Cal League in doubles and homers this year as a 20-year-old who was young for High A, even though he was promoted to Double A with two weeks to go in the season and even though he struggled badly to start the year. He had very good feel to hit even out of high school, but the Dodgers helped him make adjustments to the angle of his swing so he could drive certain pitches and unlock more power. If the return were just him for a year of Betts, I’d still say it was a good deal for Boston, as it seems very, very likely that Downs is at least a big-league regular at a skill position for many years, with a decent chance he’s more.
Connor Wong is an unusual kind of utility player because he can catch well enough to do it on more than an emergency basis, but he can move to other positions, including second or third base, both of which he’s played a little bit so far in the minors. He’s power over hit right now, with swing-and-miss a real problem for him going back to his time at the University of Houston, but as the 26th man on a major-league roster, he could be quite valuable for his ability to back up at least three positions — and there’s no reason he couldn’t play the corner outfield spots — or even to serve as a regular catcher on a bad team.
So now Boston ends up with its new No. 1 prospect in Downs, a useful utility prospect in Wong and a solid everyday right fielder in Alex Verdugo. Verdugo, as I wrote the other day, is probably an average regular in right field now, with his ability to hit for average, plus defense in left (and the arm for right) and eventually enough power for 60-plus extra-base hits, although I think he’s more of a doubles power guy than a home-run power guy even at his peak. That might get him to about 4 WAR, which isn’t Mookie territory, but Boston has him for five more years plus the other two players. Given my skepticism about Graterol’s ability to start, given his delivery and time missed with a shoulder issue in 2019, this feels like a much better outcome for the Sox, even if losing Mookie Betts was enough to ruin their summah. And they still shed salary, which was always the goal of this process, although as I said last time, it only matters if they put that money back into the major-league roster, preferably into starting pitching, which remains the organization’s big weakness with Chris Sale’s elbow and general durability now a question and most of its pitching prospects either far-away or back-of-the-rotation types.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, had to part with more than they originally wanted to get the deal done, and while acquiring Betts is always a good outcome, this one might sting a little. Downs was not their top prospect or their No. 2, but he would have been in the top two for a lot of teams, as not everyone has a Gavin Lux or a Dustin May just floating around. Losing him isn’t just about losing his services in the long run — it’s possible, even likely, that the Dodgers never would have needed Downs — but losing the ability to trade him for someone else in July or next winter, perhaps filling a critical need midseason if, say, they’re short a starting pitcher. They do pick up Graterol, at least, and he could be a valuable reliever for them right now, maybe even handling closing duties at some point if Kenley Jansen doesn’t show any improvement over 2019. If I’m trying to justify the deal more for the Dodgers, I’d argue they added a superstar in right field plus immediate impact for a bullpen that has generally been a weak link over the past few years plus a wild-card candidate for the rotation. And it is worth trading one of your best prospects for that plus a good, young corner outfielder.
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The Twins had to pay a little bit more to get Kenta Maeda, sending Graterol to the Dodgers rather than the Red Sox, but now adding outfielder Luke Raley to the trade and possibly getting a low-level minor leaguer (which, really, could mean anything from a real prospect to an org guy) back. Raley was originally with the Dodgers and came to the Twins in the Brian Dozier trade; he missed most of 2019 after surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon but, once healthy, might be a useful backup corner outfielder/first baseman and left-handed bat off the bench for someone.
And then there’s poor Joc Pederson, who was briefly an Angel before he was cast down into the fires of … wait, not that kind of Angel. The trade between the team that actually plays in Los Angeles and the one that pretends it does has fallen apart, apparently, which is a shame for everyone involved, most of all Pederson, who endured a week of rumors, during which he also lost an arbitration hearing and now needs to wait for another trade to know he’ll have a regular job this year. Pederson can be the strong half of an outfield platoon; he doesn’t hit lefties at all and never has, but he can crush righties with on-base skills and power, and he plays above-average defense in either corner. The Angels would have been better off with him on their roster, and he would have regained the playing time he probably just lost. If the Dodgers don’t trade him, he’s hoping A.J. Pollock can’t come back or the Dodgers choose to keep Chris Taylor moving around the diamond, which is a bit of a lousy position for the player and means the Dodgers have value they could convert into a player they need more. This is just a hope that there’s a better resolution for Pederson before Opening Day.
One final thought: I wonder if the complexity of this deal chills the market further for the other superstars approaching free agency in the next year or two and whose teams have explored trading them, such as Francisco Lindor, Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant. Getting this done required adding a third team, which sounds clever but just as likely makes it more difficult to pull off because now you have to get three GMs to agree and then get three owners to agree, and the only time you can get three MLB owners to agree on anything is if you tell them you found a way to pay players less. It’s not as if other teams will stop trying to trade for Lindor et al, but we might be even less likely to see such a deal, now or next winter, than we were before this whole imbroglio happened.
(Photo: Billie Weiss / Boston Red Sox / Getty Images)
