The Jays’ system has been boosted by tremendously productive work on the international front, which has made up for some significant misses on college players in the draft the last few years.
The Top 10
1. Nate Pearson, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 11)
From Keith Law’s Top 100: Pearson bounced back last year from a lost 2018 season where he threw just one inning before the Arizona Fall League. A dominant 2019 campaign saw him strike out 104 batters in 83.2 innings between High A and Double A before a late-August promotion to Triple A that left him on the cusp of the big leagues. Pearson throws hard, sitting 97-100 mph and occasionally bumping 101-102, with a fierce slider that’s usually 86-90 when he starts but up to 92 when he’s pitched in relief. He even has some feel for a changeup that’s especially impressive given how hard he throws, with zero platoon split in 2019. He’s a good athlete and an extremely hard worker who looks and throws like a top-of-the-rotation starter, and the injuries he suffered in 2018 were flukes rather than anything related to his delivery. It’s control over command right now, but there’s no mechanical reason he can’t get to above-average command in time. As long as he keeps ramping up his workload, and maybe throws more quality strikes, he should end up at the top of a rotation in a few years.
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2. Jordan Groshans, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 73)
From Keith Law’s Top 100: Groshans was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2018 and got off to a terrific start in 2019 in the full-season Midwest League, hitting .337/.427/.482 in 23 games for Lansing before a left foot injury ended his year. Groshans has a pure hitter’s swing and has shown an elite ability to make adjustments to pitchers so far in his brief pro tenure. He rotates his hips early, and the power he has shown to date comes more from his hand strength than his legs — although that’s as much a timing issue as anything, and if it ever becomes an issue it’s probably fixable. A third baseman in high school and in 2018, Groshans moved to short last year and wasn’t terrible, but third or second remain more likely long-term positions for him. If he improves at short enough to stay there, his average/contact/OBP combination would make him a potential star even without big power. A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.
3. Alek Manoah, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 76)
From Keith Law’s Top 100: The top college pitcher — and the second one selected — in the 2019 draft, Manoah had a dominant spring for West Virginia, punching out 144 batters against 27 walks in 108 innings for the Mountaineers. He’ll sit 94-95 deep into games, touching 98, with a four-pitch mix that includes an above-average changeup at 86-88 with great arm speed. His breaking stuff is less consistent, with the slider more of a chase pitch for righties while the curveball is more effective in or near the zone. He’s very big at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, and he pitches with intent, attacking hitters consistently with his fastball to set up everything else, including, quite often, more fastballs. He pitches from the stretch all the time, which is atypical but not a red flag, and was used a little heavily by West Virginia in the spring. Other than that, he checks all the boxes for a mid-rotation starter.
4. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 89)
From Keith Law’s Top 100: Martinez was just 17 in the GCL but hit seven homers, good for second in the league behind a 21-year-old org player, while also showing the plate discipline of a player a few years older. Signed in 2018 for $3.5 million, Martinez has impact tools across the board, with big-time bat speed and raw power already, as well as a 60 or better arm and great hands in the field. He’s a bit thickly built and is going to be very strong when he fills out, so the odds are he’ll end up at third base rather than at short, with a good shot to be above-average at the hot corner. He’d gotten away from the leg kick he used as an amateur but restored it last summer and went on a tear to finish his first pro season, hitting six of those seven homers in August, showing the ability to hit velocity and pick up breaking stuff as well. He’s still so young that you want to temper your enthusiasm, but he could be the Jays’ best prospect in a year.
5. Anthony Kay, LHP
Kay and No. 6 Simeon Woods Richardson were the return from the Mets for Marcus Stroman, with Kay the more advanced of the two while Woods Richardson has the higher ceiling. Kay should be a fourth starter in fairly short order; he’s consistently 92-94 mph with an above-average curveball and changeup, not having a clear plus pitch but with good feel and control. Triple A baseball didn’t agree with him, but that isn’t a reflection of how he’s pitched everywhere else.
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6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Woods Richardson is a strike-thrower already at age 19, sitting 93 with an average changeup. But he lacks an adequate breaking ball, and his arm is always late relative to his landing leg. He’s a good athlete and still quite young, so it’s easy to see the upside potential. But there’s a lot of reliever risk here too between the breaking-ball issue and the delivery.
7. Eric Pardinho, RHP
A command right-hander, Pardinho will miss the entire 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and may not pitch again until mid-2021. He was up to 96 before his elbow started bothering him last season, with a four-pitch mix, but not necessarily showing a clear out pitch.
8. Gabriel Moreno, C
Moreno, who just turned 20 on Valentine’s Day, is coming off a promising partial season for Low-A Lansing where he hit .280/.337/.485 with surprising power for his build. He’s a very athletic catcher who needs work on receiving and blocking but should get there in time, with an above-average arm and good physical projection remaining.
9. Alejandro Kirk, C
Kirk has tremendous bat-to-ball skills, can receive and frame, and throws well. But he’s very heavy – listed at 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds – and has to improve his conditioning so he has the durability required for a catcher. He can really hit, though, and has walked more than he’s struck out at all three of his stops so far in pro ball.
THAT'S how you end a game 😱@alejandro_kirk | #ST2020 pic.twitter.com/QME2OCZjd7
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) February 23, 2020
10. Miguel Hiraldo, SS/2B
He gets overshadowed in this system by Orelvis, who has more impact at the plate, but Hiraldo has good hand-eye and makes a lot of contact, even with a slight tendency to overswing and collapse his backside. He’s probably not a shortstop in the longer term, with second base likely.
The Next 10
11. Dasan Brown, OF
Brown was the Jays’ third-round pick in 2019, a local kid from Ontario who was one of the fastest runners in the draft. He’s an 80 runner who’s already plus in center and could end up a Gold Glove-type defender out there. But there are a lot of questions with the bat right now – unsurprising given how young he is and his relative inexperience compared to kids from areas where they play more baseball year-round. The Jays sent him to the Appy League rather than the GCL, which was puzzling, and he struck out quite a bit, only salvaging his stat line by being hit by a pitch nine times in 63 plate appearances.
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12. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP
The team’s second pick in 2018, Kloffenstein is a big, prototypical high school right-hander from Texas. His velocity backed up a little in his first full pro season as he transitioned from pitching once a week to working in a professional rotation, but he can still spin the ball well and has a good enough delivery to get to above-average control.
13. Leo Jimenez, SS
Jimenez is an elite defender at short with a good swing and promising exit velocities, but he’s so far from filling out that he hasn’t produced more than singles so far at the plate.
14. Patrick Murphy, RHP
Murphy has been up to 97 mph with a power breaking ball with good spin, but he’s been hurt more or less constantly since the Jays drafted him in 2014, with only 89 appearances in five-plus seasons. He also ran into trouble with the MLB Umpires’ Association, which ruled the toe-tap part of his delivery illegal and forced him to change it midseason.
15. Kendall Williams, RHP
Williams was the Jays’ second-round pick last year, a projectable right-hander from Florida who is 6-foot-6 and can show both velocity and spin on breaking stuff. But he needs help with consistency in his delivery and also has some physical maturation ahead of him.
16. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
Zeuch is a sinkerballer without a swing and miss pitch and who doesn’t have the pinpoint control he’d need to start, but he could be a useful long reliever. He’s 6-foot-7 and gets good plane on the ball, but the 2016 first-round pick also hasn’t developed anything to get lefties out.
17. Will Robertson, OF
Robertson has good power the other way, enough to profile as a regular in right field, but closes himself off at the plate so much that he can get locked up too easily when pitchers attack him inside with fastballs.
18. Sem Robberse, RHP
Robberse was pitching in the Dutch major league at 17 years old when the Jays signed him last July. He’s gone from 83-87 moh when they first saw him, to touching 93 with some spin on a breaking ball and feel for a changeup. He has one of the best deliveries in the Jays’ system and didn’t walk any of the 41 batters he faced in his pro debut.
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19. Anthony Alford, OF
Alford is about to run out of chances with the Jays; he’s already out of options and has yet to produce even in Triple A, despite some of the best physical tools in the system and some history of plate discipline when he first moved to playing baseball full-time.
20. Thomas Hatch, RHP
Hatch was the return for David Phelps in a minor trade last July, and he pitched extremely well for the Jays in six starts after the deal — albeit at Double A, where he’d been pitching for almost two full seasons. Hatch was a sinker/slider guy with the Cubs, working in the low 90s but never generating as many groundballs as expected. The Jays had him use his changeup more, and his groundball rate also spiked. So while it might all be a tiny sample, he’s at least worth keeping an eye on. (The Jays also fired the pitching coach who told Hatch to ramp up the use of his change.)
2020 impact
Pearson is ready whenever the Jays want him to be, and Kay is probably more polished right now without Pearson’s huge upside. Zeuch could help the team in relief.
The fallen
It was a tough year for the Jays’ 2017 draft class outside of Pearson. First-rounder Logan Warmoth hit .235/.324/.333 between High A and Double A at age 23 and is moving off shortstop. Fourth-rounder Kevin Smith, who had a good half-season in Low A to start 2018 at age 22, was exposed in Double A last year, hitting .209/.263/.402 with a 32 percent strikeout rate.
Sleeper
Brown’s speed and defense give him as much upside as anyone in the system after their top 100 guys, and I think he’ll show more discipline at the plate when he’s not pushed to a level above his experience.
(Top photo (Alejandro Kirk) credit: Icon Sportswire)
