A few years ago, the Jays’ front office proclaimed it had a top-five farm system in baseball, perhaps even top-three, based on some internal projections nobody ever saw. It wasn’t true then, but it sure as hell would be true now. This system has improved exponentially in the last two years, with a pair of strong drafts, some smart trades and one of the game’s most effective international scouting departments. The Jays have pitching depth and they have a ton of catchers and shortstops, the two positions where you most want to have prospect capital.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means he may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Nate Pearson, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 5)
From the Top 100: Pearson’s debut in the majors was tantalizing, but as with his first full pro season in 2018, it was interrupted by injury, leaving him still eligible for these rankings. Pearson averaged 96.3 mph on his four-seamer, showed a full four-pitch mix, all three of which at least missed bats, although he leaned most on his slider and the pitch wasn’t as consistent as it has been in the past. He’s 6 feet 6 inches and 250 pounds, with a good delivery that he has learned to repeat since the Jays signed him, so in theory he should be durable. Still, he had several fluky injuries in 2018 that limited him to one inning, and a flexor strain sent him to the injured list in late August, after which the Jays used him for just a single relief appearance. If he can stay healthy, there are very few starting pitching prospects who can match his stuff and size, which give him the ceiling of a No. 1 starter.
2. Austin Martin, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 14)
From the Top 100: The best prospect in the 2020 draft class slipped to the Blue Jays, who picked fifth and were probably delighted to have a player with his kind of potential get to their selection. Martin has exceptional hand-eye coordination and plus-plus bat speed, striking out only 36 times with 50 walks in 392 PA over his last year-plus at Vanderbilt. He’s probably best suited to third base, but the Jays intend to try him out at shortstop — which he has the athleticism and foot speed to handle — with third, second or even center field all possibilities. He did have some throwing trouble in the brief college season in 2020, but it’s not supposed to be a long-term issue and the Jays seem comfortable with his throwing post-draft. This bat at a skill position is pretty unusual and gives him some MVP upside, although we should be a little cautious since he has yet to take a pro at-bat.
3. Alek Manoah, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 79)
From the Top 100: Manoah was the top college right-hander in the 2019 draft but the Blue Jays got him with the 11th pick on some concerns about his size and minor health issues before his draft year. It looks like a steal now as Manoah continues to stay healthy and throw hard, while improving his conditioning over the course of 2020 and the last two offseasons. Manoah sits 93-94 and can touch 98, with an above-average slider and above-average changeup as well as a curveball he can land for strikes. He is big, 6-6 and 260 in college, and only pitches from the stretch, but he throws strikes and attacks guys consistently with his fastball, an approach that should continue to serve him well as he moves up the ladder. He does have to keep his body in shape, but if he stays healthy he should be in the Blue Jays’ rotation within the next two seasons, with mid-rotation upside.
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4. Alejandro Kirk, C (Top 100 rank: No. 92)
From the Top 100: Kirk got a surprise call-up to the majors and was very impressive for a kid who’d never played above High A, and had just 151 professional games total before he reached the big leagues. His bat-to-ball skill and swing decisions are both excellent, leading to very low strikeout rates, while he’s got explosive acceleration at the plate and showed in the majors he can hit for power the other way and turn on 97 in. He’s a solid catcher who can frame, block and throw well, but he’s on the big side already for a catcher at age 22 and has to maintain his conditioning. He was listed at 5-foot-8 and 265 pounds last year, and while he’s apparently lost weight heading into spring training, that’s going to be an ongoing issue for him so he can stay behind the plate, as there’s no other position for a player with his build. His bat will make him a longtime regular as a catcher, with a chance to be a star if he keeps his body in shape for it.
5. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 98)
From the Top 100: Martinez is still just 19 but finished the summer at the Blue Jays’ alternate site, impressing the team with his production against older pitching. The ball explodes off his bat thanks to his plus bat speed and present power, while he has already shown glimpses of advanced plate discipline. In the field, he’s got a plus arm and great hands, still playing shortstop but with a body that might eventually push him to third base. I noted last winter that he might be the Jays’ best prospect in a year, but with no minor league season to show progress and the addition of the best player in the 2020 draft in Austin Martin, Martinez has to wait a year for any such coronation. He has an enormous ceiling as a strong OBP guy with 25-30 homers and plus defense at third. We just need to see how the bat plays at higher levels.
6. Jordan Groshans, 3B (Just Missed)
From the Just Missed: Last year I wrote this about Groshans: “A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.” Ah, well, it was a good thought, but because of the pandemic Groshans hasn’t taken an at-bat in an actual game since May 2019. Groshans did spend the summer at the Jays’ alternate site, facing a lot of pitchers who had appeared in the big leagues or were close to doing so, which is better than no experience but doesn’t give us much new information, such as whether he’s still rotating his hips early and cutting off some of his potential power. He does have a great swing path and has shown an ability to make some adjustments in the limited experience he has in pro ball. I’d just like to see him produce over a longer period against better pitching now.
7. Gabriel Moreno, C
Moreno spent the summer at the Jays’ alternate site and hit well even though he was just 20 years old and had no experience above low A going into the year, then went back to his native Venezuela and hit .373/.471/.508 in 18 games for Lara, with 11 walks and just six strikeouts. He has an above-average arm and is athletic, needing work on the other defensive aspects of catching, but got some of that experience in 2020 when most prospects got little to none. I’m in.
8. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Woods Richardson came with Anthony Kay in the Marcus Stroman trade and impressed the Blue Jays in spring training 2.0 and at the alternate site. His stuff has backed up slightly since high school, with a solid-average fastball and above-average changeup, along with very good control. His arm is extremely late relative to when his front leg lands and he hasn’t shown an average breaking ball yet, so he has several obstacles ahead of him to reach his mid-rotation ceiling.
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9. Miguel Hiraldo, SS/2B
Hiraldo has good hand-eye coordination with high contact rates even though he can collapse his back side by overswinging, which you’d associate with power hitters who strike out all the time. The Jays have worked on getting his swing more consistent and worked on his physique so he might stay at short, although he projects as a more likely second baseman who hits for average and doubles power.
10. CJ Van Eyk, RHP
Van Eyk might have ended up in the first round had there been a full spring in 2020; he looked great in preseason and in his first outing, was up and down for three outings after that, then the world ended before he could prove the early version was real. He was 91-95 mph with a nearly 12/6 curveball that was plus when he was at his best and a hard changeup. I didn’t love the cutoff in his delivery, which limited his ability to go to his glove side, but the Jays can probably get him more online to the plate. He has a good chance to be a No. 4 starter, with a ceiling a tick above that.
11. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP
Kloffenstein regained some velocity last summer, so he can sit 93 mph deep into starts now with a power slider in the mid-80s, and even got to pitch in some real games last summer for two teams in the Constellation Energy League in Houston. His delivery works and he should get to at least average control, with the size to be a durable innings-eater in the middle of a rotation.
12. Estiven Machado, SS
Machado didn’t get the biggest bonus the Jays game to an international prospect in 2019 — that went to Rikelvin de Castro — but he’s become their best prospect from that class and yet another great job by the Jays’ international scouting staff. He’s quick and athletic, already fairly physical for age 18, with loose hands at the plate and the potential for average power or even a tick more. He’s an average runner but has the hands and arm for shortstop if he can keep his quickness and agility as he gets older.
13. Dasan Brown, OF
Brown was the Jays’ third-rounder in 2019, a local kid with 80 speed and plus defense in center who could be an elite leadoff hitter if and when his strength comes. He already has a good eye at the plate and will play all of this year at age 19.
14. Eric Pardinho, RHP
Pardinho missed all of 2020 after Tommy John surgery, and he probably won’t get back into any games until at least June of this year. The 5-foot-9 right-hander has exceptional command and feel for pitching for his age, and a possible out pitch in his curveball, but he’s had injury trouble since signing and won’t get to pitch a full season until at least 2022.
15. Yosver Zulueta, RHP
Signed for $1.5 million in May 2019, the Cuban right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery right away and was back on a mound by the end of last year, sitting 97 mph and pitching anywhere from 94 to 99 mph. He has a full arsenal of four pitches but was extremely wild as a pitcher in Cuba before he signed, so we’ll need to see if he’s improved his control at all now that his elbow is recovered.
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16. Patrick Murphy, RHP
Murphy would be either a top-100 prospect or close to it if he could stay healthy for a full season, but he’s done so only once going back to when he missed his senior season in high school after Tommy John surgery in 2013. He debuted in the majors in 2020 and averaged 96-97 mph, with a hard low-80s curveball that he can throw for strikes, with both pitches playing up because of their spin axes, which add to the deception. Maybe he’s just a spot reliever who needs time between starts, but I stubbornly believe he will have big-league value.
17. Rikelvin De Castro, SS
De Castro got $1.2 million from the Jays in the 2019-20 period on the basis of some big, flashy tools, especially in the field, but his bat is still light and he has more work to do to fill out and make higher-quality contact.
18. Leo Jimenez, SS
Jimenez is still a plus defender at short, with a good swing for contact and some promise as he fills out, but he hasn’t quite gotten there yet physically and remains a work in progress at the plate. He could shoot up these rankings once he packs on some muscle.
19. Otto Lopez, 2B/SS/OF
Lopez is a solid all-around player with no above-average tool, but he has good bat-to-ball skills, some speed, and the ability to handle multiple positions, playing second, short, left, and right for Lansing in 2019, then mostly manning second in winter ball this offseason.
20. Riley Adams, C
Adams looks like a quality backup catcher with patience and some pop, more than adequate behind the plate and unlikely to hit for enough average to be a regular.
Others of note
Joey Murray gets swings and misses on his “invisiball” fastball even though it’s fringe-average, pairing it with an improved curveball. His velocity has gone up since he signed, but the track record of pitchers like this isn’t great once they reach the majors. … The Jays’ two Dutch pitching prospects, Sem Robberse and Jiorgeny Casimiri, are still on the long track to the majors; Robberse is getting stronger and still has an extremely polished delivery, giving him exceptional control and stuff that’s creeping up to average, while Casimiri pitched a little bit in the Dutch major league (Honkbal) before a minor elbow issue shut him down. … Their 2020 third-rounder Trent Palmer has three pitches, including a splitter, with improved control before the world ended last March, but his delivery probably pushes him to the bullpen. … Toronto gave their biggest bonus in this past month’s international signing period to Manuel Beltre, giving the strong-armed Dominican shortstop $2.6 million. He’s undersized but has a very balanced swing and looks like he’ll get some power out of his 5-foot-9 frame over time.
2021 impact
If healthy, Pearson should be the Jays’ No. 2 starter. Murphy should at least be in the bullpen, and Murray will probably get a cup of coffee somewhere.
Sleeper
Brown was my sleeper last year and his youth works in his favor here, but of non-top-100 guys who might jump into the top 100 next year, I’d bet on Moreno first.
(Photo of Nate Pearson: Mitchell Layton / Getty Images)
