Now we know when this year’s draft will take place — June 10, as originally scheduled — and that it’ll be five rounds, with very little money available to players who aren’t drafted in this abbreviated format. There won’t be any more games or combines, and MLB still has forbidden scouts from traveling or doing home visits with players, so there will be a lot of review of scouting videos and plenty of Zoom calls with players.
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That seems to mean more uncertainty than ever — usually, four weeks out from the draft, I’d have more information than I do this year. But teams seem to know less than usual about what other clubs might be doing around them, and there are a lot of rumors of clubs planning to offer steep discounts from slot values, saying “take it or leave it” because they’re willing to take the compensatory pick in 2021. I expect much of what’s here will change by the time I revisit this in a couple of weeks; I will post at least two more first-round projections before we get to the draft itself.
1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
I don’t think this is a lock at all — Torkelson is the most famous player in the class, but not a Stephen Strasburg/Bryce Harper type who is clearly a level above anyone else in the draft. He’s also a right-handed hitting college first baseman; no college first baseman has ever gone 1-1, and no right-handed-hitting college outfielders have gone 1-1. The closest comparison might be Pat Burrell, a third baseman at the University of Miami who went first overall and immediately moved to first base and the outfield upon signing. Torkelson might be the safest player in the class, however, and the Tigers, picking first, have a system that is far stronger in pitching than in position players.
2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt
Martin showed more power last year to go with his elite contact rates and exit velocities, pushing him from first-round candidate to top-of-the-draft possibility. The main question is his ultimate position, especially since he didn’t throw well this spring before the college season ended, but he has the hit, power, and speed tools, and a history of elite performance in the best conference. I think the Orioles take him or Torkelson, depending on who the Tigers pick.
3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
I’ve heard they would love Martin but assume he’s gone before they pick, and Lacy — who should be discussed as a 1-1 candidate, although it seems like the Tigers are more likely to go with a bat — would be the clear best player available if the two hitters go ahead of him. I don’t think they’re on Emerson Hancock, possibly the best college righty in the draft.
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4. Kansas City Royals: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek (Fla.) HS
If the top three picks involve the three players listed above, the Royals are the first team that could go high school, maybe cutting a deal with Veen — the consensus top high school player — rather than “settling” for the best college player in the second tier.
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
Hancock seemed like a potential 1-1 candidate coming out of last spring, but was just fair out of the gate this year — not bad, just not definitively No. 1 overall good — in part due to some strange pitch calling that had him using his plus changeup far less than usual. Toronto has a new scouting director this year, but other teams expect them to keep an analytics-heavy approach, which could point to Hancock, Reid Detmers, or Max Meyer.
6. Seattle Mariners: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
I think Detmers, who might end up with 70 command but pitches with just average fastball velocity, could go here if he doesn’t go to the Jays, and if there’s anything different in the top five I’d expect Seattle to just take whoever falls to them (rather than focusing on a specific name).
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
I think Gonzales’ floor is here. I’ve also heard them with Patrick Bailey, who’s likely to be the first catcher off the board, or Heston Kjerstad. If the Royals don’t cut a deal with Veen at No. 4, I’d bet we get at least through this pick without a high school player taken.
8. San Diego Padres: Robert Hassell III, OF, Independence (Tenn.) HS
I wouldn’t rule out the Padres going college here, depending on who’s available, but I think they’re the first team likely to take a high school bat, which would probably be Hassell or Veen.
9. Colorado Rockies: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
Kjerstad blew up this spring before the season ended, showing more game power and a better approach, although he wasn’t tested in SEC play. He’s got loose hands but had high strikeout rates in his first two years with the Razorbacks that cause some concern about his long-term hit tool.
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10. Los Angeles Angels: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
Meyer is “just” a six-foot right-hander, but has upper 90s velocity with the best slider in the draft, and if there is an MLB season this year he could be a candidate to go into someone’s bullpen this summer or fall, or at least serve on a taxi squad to come in as a replacement when a pitcher gets hurt.
11. Chicago White Sox: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
We’ll see if their drafting direction changes at all under new scouting director Mike Shirley; they haven’t taken a high school player in the first round since 2012, and this doesn’t seem like the year to go in that direction with the 11th pick. You don’t really draft for need in baseball, but the White Sox don’t have a viable catching prospect in their top 20.
12. Cincinnati Reds: CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State
Van Eyk was the talk of the preseason this spring and came out with a great week one start, with great TrackMan data on his stuff, but had some trouble with command after that. I’d be surprised if the Reds went high school here — unless someone like Kjerstad slips, they’re more likely to take from the group of college right-handers available here.
13. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (Calif.) HS
I’ve also heard them as toying with the idea of taking Tennessee’s Garrett Crochet, who threw just 3.2 innings in one unannounced appearance before the sport shut down, showing a 70 fastball but struggling in the past with secondary stuff.
14. Texas Rangers: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake
Crow-Armstrong was off to a great start this spring when Harvard-Westlake was one of the first major high school programs to cancel its remaining schedule, and probably played himself back into the mid-first round after concerns about his rough summer in 2019. I haven’t heard him mentioned higher than this but on pure tools, he’d fit.
15. Philadelphia Phillies: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny (Penn.) HS
Hendrick has huge exit velocities and raw power, but he’ll be 19 at the draft and didn’t get to play at all this spring, all of which seems to have cooled interest in him at the top of the draft.
16. Chicago Cubs: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
The Cubs also have a new scouting director this year in Dan Kantrovitz, although I don’t think there’s a big change in direction coming just yet given how heavy this draft is on college pitching.
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17. Boston Red Sox: Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami
McMahon is one of the safer college arms in the class, with solid performance and mid-rotation potential but without the upside of the college pitchers likely to go ahead of him (as well a few of those behind him, like Cade Cavalli or Cole Wilcox, who have more risk).
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
Mlodzinski is more stuff than performance, showing plus velocity in the fall and early this spring with good feel for a slider, but no real success until last summer in the Cape Cod League, and then again in four starts this year.
19. New York Mets: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
Cavalli would probably be a top ten pick if he didn’t have his history of minor arm issues, bringing a plus fastball/breaking ball combination and throwing strikes this year in his four outings at a much higher rate than he had last spring.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
Jarvis was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year but wasn’t signable for worth, going in the 37th round to the Yankees. The son of long-time big leaguer Kevin Jarvis came out throwing harder and with better command and control this spring, possibly enough to get himself into the first round — especially if he’s willing to take a discount as a 22.5-year-old junior.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
Mitchell is an 80 runner and sure centerfielder, but teams are scared off by multiple factors, from questions about whether his swing will work with wood to health concerns given his diabetes. He reminds me a bit of Drew Stubbs, who wasn’t exactly the same kind of player — more power, a bit less speed, a slightly better defender at the same age — but went in the top ten picks in 2006.
22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
Wilcox was a first-round talent out of high school but unsignable, and there were — and still are — some questions about his fastball quality, but he has the velocity and the breaking ball and competes really well. The Nats tend to like big, hard throwers, especially when they have track records.
23. Cleveland Indians: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS
If I’m in the ballpark here, this would be the first draft ever that didn’t have a high school pitcher go in the top 20 picks, a reflection of the college-heavy class and the abrupt end to the spring before pitchers like Abel or Nick Bitsko (who could go in the 21-40 range) got a chance to pitch in any games. Cleveland has had no issue at all taking risks on high-upside high school arms the last three years with Brady Aiken (which didn’t work out), Ethan Hankins (promising so far), and Danny Espino (TBD).
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24. Tampa Bay Rays: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS
Howard has first-round tools and is the most likely long-term shortstop of the class, but he wasn’t great last summer, and he lost the opportunity to play against good competition this spring when USA Baseball’s NHSI tournament was canceled.
25. Atlanta Braves: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
I have heard Crochet going higher than this, more by range than to any specific team, but he threw just 3.2 innings this year in an outing barely anyone saw, and his secondary stuff wasn’t very good last year, so the enormous arm strength is really his main calling card — and I don’t know that that merits a top 15-ish pick in this college pitching class.
26. Oakland Athletics: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State
Dingler was a prospect before this year as a defense-first catcher with some athleticism, but impressed in the 13 games he played before the shutdown, showing better quality contact and more power to go with his previously strong contact rates.
27. Minnesota Twins: Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International
Allen was a two-way player as a freshman but mostly gave up hitting as a sophomore, probably the right call given how this draft is shaping up. He’s a high-floor college lefty who throws a ton of strikes with an average fastball and above-average changeup, projecting to plus command, with a strong track record of performance.
28. New York Yankees: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
Beeter might not have been taken in a five-round draft in January, but came out this year throwing an absolute screaming hammer of a curveball this spring that multiple scouts have called a grade 80 pitch, along with a plus fastball and a deceptive delivery from a high slot.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Nick Swiney, LHP, NC State
Swiney came on this year as the Wolfpack’s Saturday starter, showing a plus curveball and good command of a fringe-average fastball in his first stint in NC State’s rotation, with good extension out front to help his stuff play up and a little projection left in his body.
Note: Houston lost its first-round pick as part of MLB’s punishment for the sign-stealing scheme.
(Top photo of Martin: Steven Branscombe / USA Today)
