The pressure is certainly on the major-league team to perform this year after two years of expected contention did not materialize. There’s even more pressure given the thin state of the system, as years of mediocre draft results and of players simply not getting better in their organization have caught up to the Phillies, leaving them without depth and without potential stars.
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The Top 10
1. Spencer Howard, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 22)
From the Top 100: Howard was my No. 2 Phillies prospect last winter, shortly before they traded their No. 1 prospect Sixto Sanchez. Only two months lost to shoulder “fatigue” kept him from ending 2019 in the majors, as he dominated High A and Double A with a combination of superb control and a true four-pitch arsenal. His fastball is special, up to 99 mph this past season, 94-98 in an AFL start I saw where he sat 96 in the first inning, and he can spot it and use it up in the zone to get swings and misses. His slider is a bit ahead of his curveball, although he can overthrow both of them when he’s not careful. The curve is a tight two-planer in the 74-78 range, while the slider is in the mid-80s. His changeup is his worst pitch, with some power fade when he hits it, and he has been using it more to improve his feel. He left a trail of dead right-handed batters in his wake in 2019, limiting them to a .137/.184/.197 line and walking just 2 of 125 … so when I tell you he had a sizable platoon split, bear that in mind. I see some little things that will keep him from being an ace — a slight cutoff in his delivery, effort to get to his glove side, wobbly command even within starts — but enough of everything else to think he’ll be an above-average starter for a long time.
2. Alec Bohm, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 38)
From the Top 100: Bohm can hit, really hit, and while he might not do it at third base for the long term, he’s going to hit enough to profile somewhere as a regular. Bohm was the third overall pick in the 2018 draft, and he might be the Phils’ best first-round pick since Aaron Nola back in 2014. The Phillies started Bohm in Low A, where he didn’t belong as a 21-year-old product of a major college program, but he bashed his way out of there and then did the same in High-A Clearwater before finishing in Double-A Reading, where he took advantage of the Eastern League’s best hitters’ park but struggled on the road. He should probably start 2020 there, but I don’t think he’ll stay there long. Bohm is incredibly strong, with power to all fields, excellent zone control, and a great work ethic that extends to his pregame planning against pitchers. He’s big for third, but his footwork is good and he’s clearly worked on his conditioning just since leaving Wichita State. I like his chances to stay at the hot corner, and I absolutely believe in his chances to hit, with high averages around .300 and 25-plus homers, along with plenty of walks and maybe average defense at third in a best-case scenario.
3. Bryson Stott, SS
Their first-round pick last year, Stott is an above-average to plus defender at short with power but length to his swing that’s going to lead to a lot of swing and miss, especially as he gets to the higher levels. He’s very rangy and moves well to both directions with the arm strength to make the play from the hole.
4. Luis Garcia, SS
Jumping Garcia from the Gulf Coast League to the Sally League at age 18 was not a good idea, but leaving him there to struggle all season was an indefensible one. Garcia was a top 100 prospect last season after a great debut in the GCL, where he hit from both sides of the plate, with a better swing right-handed, and the tools to be an above-average shortstop, but he was not physically ready for what amounts to a two- or three-level jump to face pitchers who were almost all older than he was. He hit over .200 in just one month (May) and got progressively worse as the season went on; when I saw him in July he looked defeated, and he should have been sent down to Williamsport to help him find some success. Yet all of the elements that made him a top 100 prospect a year earlier were still there. The Phillies have been here before, rushing Carlos Tocci and Daniel Brito to Low-A Lakewood before either was physically ready, but Garcia is the most talented player with whom they’ve tried this. We’ll see now if they have a better plan for undoing the damage.
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5. Francisco Morales, RHP
Morales is up to 98 with the best slider I saw in the minors last year, at least a grade 70 pitch, but he will almost certainly end up a high-impact reliever rather than a starter between his well below-average command and non-functional changeup.
6. Simon Muzziotti, OF
Muzziotti has four of the tools now and might grow into the fifth, power; he can really put the bat on the ball, striking out just 12.9 percent of the time last year even as one of the youngest players in the Florida State League. He’s a 65 runner and plays plus defense right now in center. His contact tends to be hard but on the ground or just at a low angle, so, while there’s power potential in his frame, he’s going to have to lift his swing to get to it. I think he can be a regular even without much power because of his speed, defense and how rarely he swings and misses.
7. Rafael Marchan, C
Marchan is a plus-plus defensive catcher, a great receiver with quick pop times and a career 36 percent caught stealing rate, getting plaudits from the Phillies staff for his work with pitchers. He rarely strikes out but isn’t a threat to put the ball in the seats; in 846 professional PA, he has yet to homer, even though he doesn’t have a flat swing or a groundball problem. With his defense and contact skills, he can be a regular even with just the doubles power he has now, but Marchan could end up a star with just a little more juice in his bat.
8. JoJo Romero, LHP
Romero’s season was a complete disaster; he went to Triple A and posted a 6.88 ERA in 13 starts, walking almost as many guys as he struck out, and losing velocity. He was better in Double A after a demotion, back up to 96 with his old changeup, working in a cutter as well as his slider, and looked good in the AFL, but there’s no sugarcoating his year. He has the full arsenal for a starter but his command evaporated and he did not respond well to adversity. You can only blame so much of this on the baseball.
9. Adonis Medina, RHP
Medina has a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball up to 96 and an above-average curveball, but his stuff hasn’t missed bats and he has 40 command at best. He’ll show premium stuff for an inning or two but doesn’t hold it, which has a lot of scouts convinced he has to work in relief, either because he can’t maintain his velocity or doesn’t put in the effort required to turn a lineup over multiple times.
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10. Jonathan Guzman, SS
Guzman can really pick it at shortstop and improved across the board this past year. He’s a plus runner with some feel to get the bat on the ball, projecting to no power but possibly hitting for enough average, as he gets stronger, to end up a regular.
The next 10
11. Mickey Moniak, OF
Moniak got a boost from leaving the Florida State League and moving up to Reading, the best hitters’ park in the Eastern League, but he’s still the same player — with a narrow stance that cuts off any power, above-average but not plus speed, and just average-ish defense in center. He’s still flummoxed by lefties, posting a .277 OBP against them this year, but does just enough against right-handed pitchers to see him becoming a platoon outfielder who can play all three spots.
12. Damon Jones, LHP
Jones is a below-average athlete who can sink the ball and has a plus curveball, missing a lot of bats. Almost a certain reliever due to below-average command.
13. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
De Los Santos is a fastball/changeup guy who worked in a slider more last year but saw his changeup regress. He has a hard time repeating his arm stroke, so his command will probably never reach average. If he at least had three pitches working at the same time, I could buy him possibly starting, but it seems unlikely.
14. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
The good news is that Ortiz moved up to a pitcher-friendly league that suppresses power and still hit a career-best 19 homers; the bad news is he didn’t hit beyond that, with a .200/.272/.381 line. He’s still just 20 and getting a steady diet of offspeed stuff, which will continue until he shows he can handle it. The raw power is tremendous, and maybe he’ll be passable in left, but none of it matters until he lays off breaking stuff out of the zone.
15. Mauricio Llovera, RHP
Llovera is up to 96 with an above-average changeup, still in search of an average breaking ball. His season ended in July with pain in his right elbow, although he rehabbed it rather than undergoing surgery and is supposed to be ready to go for spring training.
16. Connor Seabold, RHP
Seabold can touch 95 and sits 92-93 as a starter and really pitches off the fastball, even though it doesn’t have much life or plane to it, along with a slurvy breaking ball and changeup. He repeats his delivery well and pounds the strike zone as a result, so he has the requisite control to start but needs a better swing-and-miss offering.
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17. Daniel Brito, 2B
Brito is a plus defender at second and can get the bat to the ball, even if the ball isn’t always aware of it. He has spent the last three seasons in full-season A ball without much progress. He has to get stronger so that there’s more impact when he puts the ball in play, and so pitchers can stop blowing him up inside with velocity. He’ll be 22 this year in hitter-friendly Reading, so this is his best chance.
18. Nick Maton, IF
Maton has bat speed and plate discipline, capable at shortstop and a little better at second, with no power and no real projection for it, which probably adds up to a good utility infielder without ceiling.
19. Ethan Lindow, LHP
Lindow is a very projectable left-hander whose projection started to come through by the end of the season, going from 86-90 early in the year to 90-94 by the end of it. Their fifth-rounder from 2017, Lindow has a four-pitch mix and immaculate control, walking just 22 in 110 innings last year. If he can hold this velocity all season he’s a top-10 prospect in the system.
20. Garrett Cleavinger, LHP
Cleavinger, acquired from Baltimore for Jeremy Hellickson in 2017, found another gear in 2019 as his velocity crept up over the course of the year. By August, he was touching 97 with a power slider and curveball, and started throwing more strikes. That month was his best work of the year, with 22 punchouts, four walks and just six hits allowed in 15 innings. He’s a one-inning reliever but gets lefties and righties out.
Others of note
Deivy Grullon can throw and he can crush a fastball, but he’s a well below-average receiver and doesn’t pick up off-speed pitches as a hitter. … Right-hander Kevin Gowdy, their over-slot guy in the second round in the 2016 draft, returned after missing two years following Tommy John surgery and got back up to 95 mph by the end of the summer, but strikes were a real problem and his secondary stuff still lags. … Addison Russ is in camp with the Phillies and could help the team this year with an above-average fastball and 60 changeup. … 6-foot-11 lefty Kyle Young got off to a great start for High-A Clearwater but had Tommy John surgery in May. … Right-hander Ramon Rosso is up to 95 with a promising cutter, but pitches more at average, without much of a changeup. His stuff all moves in one direction, and he’s probably just a middle reliever. … Catcher Juan Aparicio is very strong with power and has a plus arm, but right now he swings at everything and his glove needs work.
2020 impact
Howard is major-league ready, although, after he had an abbreviated 2019, the Phillies may not want to push him. Bohm should be ready by late summer. De Los Santos, Russ, Cleavinger, Jones or even Medina could help the bullpen.
The fallen
The 2016 draft has been a disaster for the Phillies, who picked first that year and selected Moniak, and then took Gowdy to start the second round. Their third pick, the first selection of Day 3, was Nebraska high school infielder Cole Stobbe, who took a bonus of $1.1 million but hasn’t hit at all in pro ball, posting a .299 OBP for Low-A Lakewood last year with a 40 percent strikeout rate.
Sleeper
I might be irrationally fond of Muzziotti, but I just love how he plays beyond the type of player he is. If he walks a little more, or gets the ball in the air more often, he could be a top 100 prospect in a year.
(Top photo of Alec Bohm: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)
