We’re about halfway into the Division 1 regular season, but many high schools still haven’t begun play beyond scrimmages yet, so there’s still a lot of scouting left to do, and that’s before we even consider what MLB’s Draft League (starting in late May) might look like. What I can say, for now at least, is that the draft class looks weaker today than it did six weeks ago. More players have underperformed or gotten hurt than have boosted their standing through performance, new tools, or new conditioning. The college right-hander class isn’t as good as it first looked, and the college position player crop is bad – we might not see an SEC position player drafted in the first round for the first time since 2014 and just the third time in 15 years. The high school crop is about average, maybe lighter on arms than usual, but that’s less of an issue as the industry has moved away from high school arms in the first round in the last two years. It’s a tough year to draft high, but it might be a good year to have extra picks and/or a large bonus pool.
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I’ll further expand this list to 100 names in May, after most of the country’s high schools have begun their regular seasons.
Notes: This is a ranking of players, not a mock draft or projected first round, though I will do mock drafts as we get closer to the summer. To be eligible for the draft, a player must fit into one of the following categories: a junior or senior at a four-year college, a player of any year at a four-year college who has already turned 21 years old, a high school senior, or a player at a junior (two-year) college regardless of year of enrollment.
1. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Leiter would absolutely go 1-1 if the draft were today, but I think he might actually be getting too much hype after his recent run of a nine-inning no-hitter, a seven-inning no-hit start, and two almost-as-dominant outings since then where he allowed six hits in 13 innings with 25 strikeouts. He’s the best guy in the class, but I don’t think it’s fair to assume that because he’s the top prospect this year, he’s going to be Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg – Leiter is different, and has less chance to become an ace than either of those guys did. But he’s still atop this board, and right now I don’t think it’s that close.
2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas
I do know scouts who think Lawlar is the best prospect in the draft, and with the paucity of bats at the college level, he’s probably going to go off the board in the first three picks. He’s one of the toolsiest kids in the draft, with plus speed, future plus defense at short, and great bat speed. He’ll turn 19 right before the draft, so he’s one of the older high school players, and doesn’t have the same advanced instincts and feel for the game as Bobby Witt, Jr. (another Metroplex-area high school shortstop who went second overall in 2019), but may have even more upside.
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3. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Rocker’s velocity has been down the last few outings, with a lot of 89-91 or 89-92 mph, although there’s no evidence that there’s something more serious here than just fatigue. He also hasn’t pitched that well with the lower velo, which is hardly surprising. If he doesn’t regain his usual velocity before the end of the college season, it might hurt his standing, but I’m not ready to say this is much more than a midseason slump in a year when a lot of college and high school pitchers are dealing with fatigue earlier in the season than usual. To be entirely fair to Rocker, he’s still struck out 39 guys in 25 innings in four SEC starts, so he’s not really “slumping.”
4. Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Davis has mashed all year, with huge power and a patient eye, and he’s got a plus arm and enough receiving skills to stay behind the plate. Joey Bart went second overall with less bat and more glove; I don’t think it’s a stretch to think Davis could be the first college position player taken.
5. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
And if it’s not Davis, it will probably be Frelick, who has taken to center field while walking more than he strikes out and already topping his career-best in home runs. He may not hit for the same kind of power in pro ball, but it’s very promising to see him make so much hard contact given his 5-foot-9 frame.
6. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Before last weekend’s rough outing against Arkansas, where he walked five Hogs in 5 1/3 innings, Hoglund had been the most consistent starter in college baseball, allowing no more than three walks or three runs in any start, and punching out 10 or more in every start but one. He pitches with a lot of above-average stuff, but the curve could be a real out pitch if he uses it more. With his command and control, however, he’s going to go in the top 10 either way, and could even pass Rocker if the latter’s velocity doesn’t eventually pick up.
7. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) HS
Mayer is a definite shortstop with feel to hit and average speed, probably not projecting to power but with sufficient strength to hit enough to profile as an above-average regular at short. Lawlar has bigger tools, and he’ll be first off the board among prep bats, but Mayer should be second.
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8. Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) HS
House has some of the best exit velocities in the draft with unreal power in games this spring, and thanks to some small swing adjustments he’s showing that he can use the whole field better. He’s not going to stay at shortstop, and may have to work to become an average defender at third.
9. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick might have the draft’s best fastball, up to 100 mph with spin and elite extension, and he can really spin a breaking ball, although the pitch isn’t consistent. He’s punched out 39 percent of the batters he’s faced this year, and the Deacons’ defense hasn’t done him many favors (he’s allowed a .450 BABIP), but even improved control hasn’t gotten him to average yet.
10. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS
Watson’s season won’t begin for another two weeks, but he showed enough last summer and fall to profile as a top-10 pick, with no below-average tools, potentially plus-plus defense at shortstop, and hard contact. He’s very strong for his size, although some teams will shy away from a 5-foot-9 high school player.
11. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) HS
Ford’s biggest problem might be that scouts find it hard to identify a good major-league comparison for him. He’s athletic, runs well, throws average, rifles the bat through the zone, projects to power, and he’s … a catcher? He does take a huge stride at the plate but stays balanced, and he receives well enough to stay at the position. High school catchers are a high-risk category, but they also rarely look like him.
12. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH)
Bachman missed two starts with arm soreness, but the Redhawks brought him back carefully and he went six strong innings last weekend, his longest start since the layoff. Bachman has been up to 102 mph and shows a grade-70 slider, striking out 45 percent of the guys he’s faced this year, and he’s throwing strikes. It’s not a classic delivery and he’ll have to pass teams’ medical checks before the draft, but this is a top 10 overall kind of arm.
13. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks laid an egg last weekend in a big matchup with Texas’ Ty Madden — more on him below — but had otherwise been consistent this spring, working at 92-94 with a changeup that’s plus to double-plus, but doesn’t have the command/control you’d expect from the top college lefty in the class, and hitters have been able to square him up more than scouts would like.
14. Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami
Del Castillo has a top 10 overall kind of bat, maybe top five, but probably isn’t a catcher in the long term — I wouldn’t rule it out completely, but he’s a 45 defender tops and might have a 40 arm — and doesn’t show or project to a lot of power, so it’s tough to figure out his profile. He’s really hard to strike out and his swing works well, so he fits somewhere in the mid-first round, or higher if someone thinks he can stick behind the plate.
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15. Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS, Bogart, GA
Chandler is committed to Clemson to play quarterback, but that’s not likely to matter once the MLB Draft rolls around, as he could be a first-rounder as a pitcher (most likely) or as a position player. He’s a projection right-hander with a faster arm than you typically see on quarterbacks — the track record of quarterbacks-turned-pitchers isn’t great — and some feel to spin a curveball. He’s also a switch-hitter with a really smooth, easy right-handed swing, but his left-handed swing is slower and loopier. He’s a tremendous athlete, the kind of player on whom teams who believe in player development love to bet.
16. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City, OK
Jobe is the best high school pitcher in this draft, a very athletic 6-foot-2 right-hander with a fast arm who projects to throw in the mid-90s and gets huge spin rates on his slider.
17. Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield School, Boston, MA
Baez is one of the youngest players in the draft, as he’ll still be 17 on draft day, and has huge power and big exit velocities along with a plus arm that has seen him throw 97 off the mound. Baez’s school has only played scrimmages so far, with their schedule starting in earnest this week.
18. Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Madison Central (MS) HS
Montgomery is committed to Stanford, and has plus power, a plus arm, and plus defense in center already. He’ll have to overcome the poor history of Mississippi high school position players in the draft, and won’t get to face much quality pitching this spring.
19. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Cowser is the sort of high-floor, lower-ceiling college position player teams tend to like in weaker draft classes, with good feel to hit but no other above-average tools. He does have 12 homers already this spring, even though his swing doesn’t seem like it should generate that much power.
20. Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) HS
Pacheco is a big third baseman in the mold of Jordan Groshans and Brett Baty, more advanced right now on defense than those guys (Groshans had mostly played short) but perhaps not as far along with the bat. He’s very strong and can make hard contact but really opens up his front side early.
21. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
McLain was a first-rounder three years ago and declined to sign with Arizona, but he hasn’t performed well enough for the Bruins to improve his draft stock very much. He projects to move to second base in pro ball and should hit for some average but probably not power.
22. Dylan Smith, RHP, Alabama
One of the biggest risers of the spring so far, Smith is a rarity in the draft — a college pitcher with a lot of projection left. He’s a former position player and an excellent athlete who can touch 95 but pitches more at 92-93, with big spin on a power slider, and has shown an extremely competitive demeanor on the mound against good SEC competition.
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23. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace HS, Sicklerville, NJ
Solometo’s season starts next week, and the lanky southpaw could move up even from here if he shows any progress in command and consistency, as he’s already shown good velocity and a plus slider.
24. Lonnie White, OF, Malvern (PA) Prep
White has a good swing with feel to hit and above-average speed for now, although he’s already started to fill out to the point that he’s more likely to end up in right field than center.
25. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Hill is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, taking him from a potential top-10 pick to someone’s late first/comp round overpay. We’ve seen plenty of TJ recipients or pitchers who needed the surgery go in the first round in the last 10 years, including Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito and Jeff Hoffman, but Hill had trouble staying healthy before his elbow blew out and he might slip into the sandwich round instead.
26. Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) HS
Montgomery is a good surname to have in this draft class, as it seems to correlate highly with good tools. This Montgomery is a 70 runner with plus raw power, a potential 25+ homer center fielder with good defense, although his narrow frame may mean he’s not guaranteed to put on a lot of muscle as he grows.
27. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Mace is the best senior in the draft class, although there are quite a few good senior starters this year thanks to the truncated draft in 2020, and I’ve had scouts say he goes anywhere from the first to the third rounds. He’s a sinkerballer who is best when he pitches to contact, and needs to improve his slider or find another third pitch, but has a history of throwing strikes and may be better when he goes to pro ball and can change his pitch mix.
28. Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC) HS
Taylor is a smaller center fielder with a chance for four above-average or better tools, all but power, with good feel to hit and plus speed. He’s put on some weight since last fall but is 5-foot-10 and still probably no more than 170 pounds. He’s also committed to Clemson for football, as is Chandler.
29. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian, Pompano Beach, FL
Painter is 6-foot-7 and listed at 225, and throws hard, but struggled early in the season with command and with finding a breaking ball. He’s been better his last few outings, throwing better strikes, although he may still not have the average breaker teams would like to see, with his size and arm strength his big selling points.
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30. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden has two pitches, a fastball up to 97 and a plus slider, from a high slot that makes it hard for him to find a good changeup. He hasn’t missed bats against better competition this year, and he’s been worked harder than any other college starter prospect this year, so scouts see a lot of reliever risk.
31. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
Wilson’s new leg kick seems to be hurting him at the plate, and he may still be suffering the effects of an early-season ankle sprain, as he’s making a ton of contact but not hitting for the kind of power (5 HR this year, second on the Jaguars) he showed as a freshman. He’s a corner guy and has to hit for average and put the ball in the seats more to profile as a regular or as a first-rounder.
32. Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland (NJ) HS
Petty hit 101 on Tuesday in front of a decent crowd of scouts, but was overthrowing and flattened out, and didn’t show the changeup that is his best offspeed pitch. It’s a high-effort delivery on a shorter right-hander, a category of player some teams prefer to avoid – although J.T. Ginn was similar and went in the first round in 2018.
33. Joe Mack, C, Williamsville (NY) East HS
A left-handed-hitting catcher with a plus arm, Mack won’t see his season start until May 13th, so no one benefits more from the later draft date than he will. He’s strong and could get to power in time, although he’s had a few iterations of his swing already, from a quiet toe-tap to an exaggerated leg kick.
34. Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic HS, Fort Pierce, FL
Allen is a very athletic outfielder who plays three sports for his high school, and has a pretty right-handed swing that should produce hard contact and, eventually, power.
35. Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro HS, Enola, PA
Morales is a projection right-hander in the low 90s now with the potential for three pitches and a loose arm, although his delivery could use some cleanup to help him get more consistent pitch to pitch. He’s committed to Vanderbilt and might be a tough sign.
36. Chase Burns, RHP, Beech HS, Hendersonville, TN
Burns has a power arm, up to 97 with a slider that flashes plus and has good spin, with a one-piece arm action that has a lot of effort to it and limits his control.
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37. Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
The Bulldogs’ Saturday starter has one of the draft’s best sliders, and he’ll touch 95-96 mph while pitching at 93, but it’s a reliever-ish delivery that could keep him out of the first round. The draft-eligible sophomore has an older brother, David, who plays for their hometown Pirates.
38. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
Cannon came back strong after missing the start of the season due to mono, up to 96 with a slider and changeup, although his fastball doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d like and he may be better off as a pitch-to-contact groundball guy.
39. Colson Montgomery, SS/3B, Southridge HS, Holland, IN
Colson might be the third-best player named Montgomery in this draft class, but we probably shouldn’t hold that against him. He has a great left-handed swing and good approach for his age, and a plus arm that should allow him to stay at third base in pro ball. He’s already 19, however, which will count against him for teams that use models to determine their draft boards.
40. Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee (WI) HS
The younger brother of Cleveland prospect Owen Miller, Noah is a switch-hitting shortstop with great instincts and a smooth left-handed swing, lacking a clear plus tool but with a good chance to hit and stay at the position.
41. Chase Silseth, RHP, Arizona
Silseth spent his freshman year at Tennessee – how the Vols let him get away I have no idea – then transferred to College of Southern Nevada, the same junior college Bryce Harper attended, and went to Tucson this year, where he’s become the Wildcats’ Friday night starter. He’s been up to 97, sitting 92-94, with an above-average curveball, throwing a ton of strikes, and outside of one disastrous start against Oklahoma has been very good.
42. Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Preparatory School, Saraland, AL
Bruns was all over the place last summer, but has harnessed his stuff more this spring and is still up to 98 with a delivery that lets him drive the ball down towards the plate. He can spin a breaking ball too, but for teams to go all in they’ll have to forget what they saw from him in 2020.
43. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS
Kudrna, an LSU commit, can touch 97 and sit 94-95, although the pitch doesn’t have great secondary characteristics, and can flash a power slider from a pretty delivery. He’s a big, athletic kid, and good fodder for a team comfortable making changes to mechanics or pitch design.
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44. Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State
Black is the best Canadian-born prospect in the draft class this year, and has been raking all spring for the Raiders, showing power, patience, and a good contact rate, with a swing that should work in pro ball and the ability to play second or possibly third.
45. Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
A senior who was undrafted in 2020, Mikulski has been up to 98 mph this spring for the Rams and absolutely rolling his last four starts, with 53 strikeouts and 6 walks in 28.2 innings, allowing just 9 hits (7 singles) in that span.
46. Connor Norby, 2B/SS, East Carolina
Norby could be a solid performance draft pick, with a compact swing that has produced a lot of hard contact this year and a .442/.482/.713 line for the Pirates. I’m not sold on the swing continuing to produce power, but he doesn’t strike out much and should hit for average. He has the arm strength to potentially play third base.
47. Sean Burke, RHP, Maryland
Burke has been up to 97 this spring with a 55 changeup and some feel for a slider, although I happened to catch him on a cold day when he was just 89-93. He’s 6’6″ with a very strong lower half that should allow for consistently plus velocity with a little delivery work.
48. Ryan Webb, LHP, Georgia
A senior who was undrafted last year, Webb has improved as the season has progressed, with a dominant start against Vanderbilt last weekend (13 K, 1 BB) in front of scouts there to also see Jack Leiter helping his cause. He’s shown plus velocity but has to show more consistent strikes the rest of the spring.
49. Isaiah Thomas, OF, Vanderbilt
Thomas has earned scouts’ attention with plus tools and huge exit velocities for the Commodores, and some promising adjustments as the season has progressed, although he’s still probably too undisciplined a hitter to work his way into the first round.
50. Justice Thompson, OF, North Carolina
A transfer from junior college, Thompson has been the Tar Heels’ best hitter this year, with plus speed and some power, but so far with too much swing and miss, especially in ACC play (30 percent).
Honorable mentions:
Mason Black, RHP, Lehigh
Brant Hurter, LHP, Georgia Tech
Jackson Wolf, LHP, West Virginia
Peyton Wilson, IF, Alabama
Braylon Bishop, OF, Arkansas HS, Texarkana, AR.
(Top photo of Jack Leiter: Jonathan Mailhes / Cal Sport Media via AP Images)
