With the 2021 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft – we’re just going to go with “the draft,” for short – now in the books, here’s my look at each team’s draft class. I focus on the top ten rounds, since those are the picks that count towards each team’s bonus pool; players taken after the tenth round may be paid up to $125,000 without counting against the bonus pool, so the best prospects taken in rounds 11 through 20 rarely end up signing.
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The number in parentheses after each player’s name indicates the round in which he was taken; the letter A indicates that it was a supplemental pick between rounds, either for losing a free agent or from the competitive balance lottery. I do assume that all players taken in the top ten rounds will sign, although each year there are roughly two to five players who don’t for various reasons.
Finally, I don’t grade drafts; I think that whole idea is absurd. The best I can offer is to tell you that I think teams did well or not well based on what I know about the players available at those picks.
Chicago Cubs
Kansas State southpaw Jordan Wicks (1) was the best college lefty in the draft class, a fastball/changeup guy without electric velocity and with just an average-ish breaking ball. The changeup is plus and he throws a ton of strikes. This was the Cubs’ one real safe pick in the first four rounds, as Wicks seems extremely likely to pitch in a big-league rotation, and soon, as long as he stays healthy. But barring a change in stuff, he doesn’t have a high ceiling.
Shortstop James Triantos (2) never strikes out, with exceptional bat control and a simple approach, showing strength for hard contact but no other plus tools. He’s more likely to move to the right side of the infield, as he doesn’t show the range or footwork for shortstop. He reclassified into the 2021 class this spring (he was originally in the class of 2022). It would not surprise me at all to see him go out and hit for average in Low A next year given his bat-to-ball skills.
Left-hander Drew Gray (3) was a two-way player in high school, with some arm strength from the left side but a lack of clearly defined offspeed stuff and some power at the plate. It sounds like he’ll go out as a pitcher first, where he has more upside once he focuses on just one position rather than two.
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Arkansas center fielder Christian Franklin (4) seems like a great value play in the fourth round, as he has plus-plus power and defensive skills that would put him in the late first round, but swings and misses too often – he ranked second among all SEC hitters in strikeouts – and really needs an overhaul to his swing. He’s a great upside pick at this point.
The Cubs went heavy on college seniors after this, although some of them are interesting enough that they’re more than just pure money-savers. Shortstop Liam Spence (5) is already 23 years old, but has good plate coverage and bat control with a chance to stay at shortstop. It’s not that dissimilar to David Fletcher’s skill set, although Fletcher was drafted at age 21. Riley Martin (6) was another senior sign, also 23 years old, but the Quincy University right-hander can show an above-average fastball and slider and struck out 45 percent of the batters he faced this year in Division II. Parker Chavers (7) is a left-handed hitting outfielder with big power but length to the swing that might make him a platoon guy. Catcher Casey Opitz (8) is a stronger defender but his bat probably limits him to backup duty. Outfielder Peter Matt (10) is a serious academic underachiever, having graduated from Penn and then gone on to Duke this year to pursue a master’s, with strong exit velocities but a huge strikeout rate for a 23-year-old.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds might have had the strongest draft overall, or at least the strongest of any team drafting outside of the top 10. They took Matt McLain (1) at pick 17, landing a guy I thought was going to go in the top 10, a plus hitter with a good chance to stay at shortstop and a downside of above-average or better defense at second base. McLain was also a first-rounder in 2018 but ended up going a little higher after three years at UCLA.
They went for upside at pick 30 with Florida prep outfielder Jay Allen (1A), taking him with the pick they got when Trevor Bauer signed with the Dodgers. Allen stood out among the prep outfielders this year for a swing that works and some feel to hit already, although there’s some swing and miss here. He’s an above-average runner with a plus arm and should be able to stay in center. Catcher Matheu Nelson (1A) is a 22-year-old senior who tied for the Division 1 lead in home runs this spring with 23; the Florida State backstop is a bit like former FSU catcher and current Seattle Mariner Cal Raleigh, in that neither was a great receiver but both were adequate, and both produced huge offense against good competition. Nelson might be power-over-hit in the end but if he catches he’ll play in the majors for a while.
Lefty Andrew Abbott (2) was also a senior, although he just turned 22 last month, and has good feel to pitch with great deception on a changeup and a curveball that’s effective against lefties because of his delivery. Hitters just don’t see the ball out of his hand and I think he’s a fast mover with a chance to be a No. 4 starter. Jose Torres (3) is a premium defensive shortstop with a little pop but probably a 40 hit tool right now; he’s probably a utility guy in the end. Ruben Ibarra (4) has real power, but he’s listed at 6-5, 290, and I don’t see how he’s anything but a DH. Outfielder Justice Thompson (6) had second-round tools in my view, but his weakness against breaking stuff torched his season; he’s a plus runner and plus defender, and this was his first year in the ACC after transferring from junior college. He might move more slowly than the typical college player but there’s clear upside and defensive value.
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Kevin Abel (7) is one of the sadder stories of the draft; I believe he was badly overused by the lauded Oregon State coach Pat Casey — one of several cases of pitchers who blew out in Casey’s last few years there, including two-time Tommy John recipient Drew Rasmussen — back in the College World Series in 2018. Casey allowed Abel to throw 129 pitches in a start, which in and of itself is irresponsible, but it came a day after Abel had thrown 23 pitches in a relief outing, and five days after another start where he threw 95 pitches. Abel blew out less than a year later, and this spring his fastball was often as low as 88 mph, while he walked 61 batters in 82 innings. Maybe the Reds can straighten him out, but that overuse likely cost Abel seven figures. I doubt anyone in Corvallis will be reimbursing him. Cincinnati took a flier on College of Central Florida right-hander Shaun Guilliams (11), who was up to 95 early in the spring with two secondary pitches with promise, but missed most of the season with a forearm issue. This is really a great mixture of probability and ceiling, with some smart gambles after the fifth round on players with good risk/reward profiles.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers went for value at pick 15, taking Boston College centerfielder Sal Frelick (1), a high-contact hitter with strength to drive the ball but no real power, hitting just three homers in ACC play this spring. He’s a plus defender in center who has a short left-handed stroke and plus speed, with a good leadoff profile. He may have been a victim of some primacy bias — he came out hot, hitting 3 homers before conference play began, and the possibility that he’d added a grade or more of power changed the industry view of him. When he settled in as a very good player without power, it seemed like a letdown.
Wright State infielder Tyler Black (1A) was, like Frelick, one of the best pure bats in the draft class this year, showing well in non-conference games early this season against strong clubs like Vanderbilt and Alabama, and went 5 for 9 with a homer in the regional against Tennessee and Duke. The first Canadian-born player drafted this year, Black has great plate discipline and scouts love how hard and intelligent his play is. He’s played all over the infield but profiles best at second or possibly third.
TCU lefty Russell Smith (2) is a giant at 6-9, and despite an awkward-looking delivery, he throws a lot of strikes, walking 6 percent of batters this year. He pitches backwards, using his mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider both more than he uses his 91-94 mph fastball, but nothing here is plus. His size gives him natural deception and his command and control help his stuff play up. I don’t think there’s more than a back-end starter here, though.
Alex Binelas (3) came into the year as a possible late first-rounder but got off to a miserable start, and as a bat-first — maybe a bat-only — prospect, it doomed his chances to go that high. He ended up with 19 homers and a .621 slugging percentage, but hit just .256 with 21 walks and 51 punchouts. The power is at least a 70, and while this might be a round high for someone with his profile, lacking any position at the moment, there’s regular upside too.
Right-hander Logan Henderson (4) led JUCO pitchers in strikeouts this year, but he’s under 6′ with a ton of effort in his delivery, including some real head violence at release, a straight reliever look even though he has the three pitches to try to start. Duke shortstop Ethan Murray (5) feels like a player the model liked more than scouts would; he had a solid OBP this year but he has no power, a 45 hit tool at best, and struck out more than he walked.
South Carolina first baseman Wes Clarke (10) has huge power but below-average bat speed and no position. He’s a poor man’s Daniel Vogelbach. The Brewers did take SoCal high school infielder Roc Riggio (11) and could try to sign him with money left over from their bonus pool, since they didn’t take anyone who seems like he’ll require over slot before that. Riggio’s a bat-first high school position player, the kind of kid who often benefits from college because teams can better track and measure his performance while seeing how it holds up against better competition. He might end up in left field, lacking the speed for the middle, and it’ll remain to be seen if he can continue to show power as a 5-9 hitter when using the wood bat. He’d be a nice bow on the draft for Milwaukee.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates picked first overall, and they made the absolute most of it, grabbing a huge collection of talent, including three players I ranked as first-rounders on talent.
Catcher Henry Davis (1) was No. 2 on my final draft board, although I wrote that he was the 1A to Marcelo Mayer’s 1 — both are excellent prospects, but Mayer offers a little more upside, and I heard enough scouts concerned about Davis’ defense to hedge my bets a little. Davis has exceptional hand-eye coordination at the plate as well as plus power, hitting .370/.482/.663 with more walks than strikeouts this year for Louisville. He has a cannon and I think receives and moves well enough behind the plate to stay there and eventually get to average with some work. If his power carries over to pro ball and he remains a catcher, he has all-star upside.
Southpaw Anthony Solometo (2) was the top high school lefty in this draft class, with power and command from a slightly lower slot that makes him hard for hitters to pick up. He’ll touch 95 with a hard curveball that he throws to both sides of the plate. He’s the perfect over-slot high school arm to take with your second pick.
They followed that up with a pair of two-sport guys committed to play football at major D1 programs. Pennsylvania native Lonnie White Jr. (2A) was slated to go to Penn State as a wide receiver, although he’s built far more like a tight end or a linebacker. He bulked up over the winter and lost some speed, so he’s probably ticketed for right field, with good bat speed and loft in his swing to generate power.
Bubba Chandler (3) was a triple threat, committed to Clemson as a quarterback, but also a right-handed pitcher and shortstop for his high school. He’s a projection right-hander with a fast arm and a very promising curveball, and of course he’s a great athlete, although the history of quarterbacks on the mound is not as good as you’d think. Owen Kellington (4) is now the highest-drafted high school player from Vermont in draft history, and the second-highest draft pick ever from the state, going 14 picks later than Kirk McCaskill did in 1982 out of the University of Vermont, which cut baseball after the 2009 season.
Second baseman Jackson Glenn (5) hit 21 homers this spring for Dallas Baptist, leading Division 1 in total bases, but he’s about to turn 24 in October, so he was older than just about every pitcher he faced this year, sometimes by as much as five years. He does have some bat speed and seemed able to catch up to good fastballs, so while the power may not be real, he might end up hitting enough to have a big league role. Cal right-hander Sean Sullivan (8) is a command right-hander with a solid changeup that should help him stay a starter if his fastball plays. Right-hander Justin Meis (10) is up to 94 with some promise to the slider but a high-effort delivery that will probably push him to the bullpen.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals took UC Santa Barbara right-hander Mike McGreevy (1) with their first pick, going for perhaps the best control artist in the draft — McGreevy walked 11 this spring, just 2.6 percent of batters he faced, and never more than two in any outing. He works with pretty average stuff, touching the mid-90s but pitching more at 88-92. Adding velocity is one of the easier things to do right now, so the Cardinals could be hoping to see McGreevy’s fastball jump the way last year’s top command guy, Reid Detmers, did with his fastball over the offseason. They went the other way with their second pick, prep outfielder Joshua Baez (2), going for big ceiling; Baez has two huge tools, 70 raw power and a 70 arm, and is an average runner with good bat speed, but he’s swung and missed a lot on the amateur circuit because he swings hard all the time. Arizona outfielder Ryan Holgate (2A) has plus power from the left side, a dead fastball hitter who struggles with offspeed stuff and is limited to left field or maybe first base.
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Right-hander Austin Love (3) was worked excessively hard by UNC coach Scott Forbes this spring, throwing 120 pitches in a complete game on May 14th, then coming back on short rest to throw 129 pitches in another complete game on the 20th. He has an extremely short arm action and works at 92-95 with a short slider and hard changeup, with solid-average control. I’m sure he’s a bulldog and a competitor and he just wanted the ball, man. Kent Emmanuel says hello from rehabbing after his second Tommy John surgery. Washington State right-hander Zane Mills (4) has a more traditional arm action, with very little effort, showing plus control of three fringe-average to average pitches. Villanova right-hander Gordon Graceffo (5) has even better control – are you noticing a trend here? – of an average fastball, above-average changeup, and fringy slider. Alec Willis (7) wasn’t the Colorado high school pitcher everyone thought would be drafted this spring — that was Cale Lansville, who went undrafted and will head to LSU instead. Willis is 6-5 and can touch 94-95, sitting more 91-92, but didn’t pitch in 2020 after ulnar nerve decompression surgery. He has a loopy knuckle-curve and the fastball lacks much life.
(Top photo of Henry Davis: Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
