With the 2021 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft — we’re just going to go with “the draft,” for short — now in the books, here’s my look at each team’s draft class. I focus on the top-10 rounds, since those are the picks that count towards each team’s bonus pool; players taken after the 10th round may be paid up to $125,000 without counting against the bonus pool, so the best prospects taken in rounds 11 through 20 rarely end up signing.
Advertisement
The number in parentheses after each player’s name indicates the round in which he was taken; the letter A indicates that it was a supplemental pick between rounds, either for losing a free agent or from the competitive balance lottery. I do assume that all players taken in the top-10 rounds will sign, although each year there are roughly two to five players who don’t for various reasons.
Finally, I don’t grade drafts; I think that whole idea is absurd. The best I can offer is to tell you that I think teams did well or not well based on what I know about the players available at those picks.
Baltimore Orioles
For the second year in a row, Baltimore reached for a college bat, which I presume was meant to save money at that pick for over-slot selections later. Outfielder Colton Cowser (1) was one of the best college bats in the draft class, ranking 14th on my Big Board for his bat. He doesn’t miss fastballs and hits all manner of pitches, with a swing that looks geared for hard contact but maybe just 55 power. He’s a corner guy but profiles as an above-average regular there. He became the highest-drafted player in Sam Houston State history and just their second first-rounder ever (Glenn Wilson, 1980, also the school’s all-time WAR Leader). East Carolina infielder Connor Norby (2) hit .415/.475/.688 this spring, finishing with a strong showing against the power arms of Vanderbilt thanks to a compact swing and a whole-field approach. He has a fringy arm that limits him to second base but is solid defensively at that spot. I thought he was also a first-round talent, so the Orioles walked away with two guys ranked in my top 30.
Centerfielder Reed Trimble (2A) hit 17 homers for Southern Miss, but chases too many pitches out of the zone, especially changeups; all but three of his homers came on fastballs, the others on hanging sliders/curves. He’s definitely strong, and can really drive the ball when he gets his arms extended, but I question the pitch recognition here. He’s an above-average runner who should stay in centerfield.
Advertisement
I heard Kentucky outfielder John Rhodes’ (3) name mentioned several times in the same category as Norby, Tyler Black, and other college position players who might slip into the top two rounds, but Rhodes, unlike those other guys, didn’t perform: he hit .251/.397/.508, and even that’s misleading due to 18 HBP. (Deduct those HBP from the top and bottom and his OBP drops to .347.) There’s no power from his legs in his approach right now, so while his plate discipline is fine, he’s not getting hits on balls in play like an elite college hitter should be. He’s an average runner and will probably play a corner outfield spot. He’ll turn 21 in August.
Arizona outfielder Donta’ Williams (4) and Texas-Arlington right-hander Carlos Tavera (5) are both college seniors, with Tavera turning 23 in October. Williams is a 55/60 runner who lets the ball travel at the plate and walked more than he struck out this year and last year pre-lockdown. If he stays in center he has a chance to be a soft regular. Tavera has a decent slider at 82-84 and missed a lot of bats this year with all three of his main pitches, enough to send him out as a starter with a little back-end starter potential. He’s the first guy I’ve ever come across who started at a four-year school, transferred to a JUCO (Weatherford), and then returned to the same four-year school to finish up. Good for him.
Collin Burns (6) is a plus runner with a slappy swing that never resulted in any production until this year, when he hit .353/.410/.571 for Tulane. He’ll go out as a shortstop, at least, but I’d like to see a lot more patience given how little power he’s likely to show. The one high school player they took in the entire draft was Creed Willems (8), an unathletic catcher from Texas with some raw strength but a no-stride approach. He was committed to TCU but has already said he’ll sign with the O’s. Fresno State third baseman/left fielder Ryan Higgins (9) is interesting — he can clearly hit, and has some pop, but has no position. So, if they’re really saving cash on Cowser, and took college seniors in the fourth and fifth rounds, where did all the money go?
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox got the No. 1 player in the draft in southern California shortstop Marcelo Mayer (1), a left-handed hitter with a great swing, future power, and potentially plus defense at shortstop. He has strong wrists and forearms already and should add more strength as he gets older. I don’t think he has the most pure upside in the draft, but he has the best combination of upside and probability, thanks to his defensive skills and ability to play a premium position.
Florida outfielder Jud Fabian (2) has plus power and can really defend in center, but he has two major holes at the plate — fastballs up, and sliders down or away or down and away or pretty much anywhere at all — and made no adjustment whatsoever during the season. A legit centerfielder with sock is a first-rounder, but when you strike out 76 times, fourth-most of all SEC hitters this year, you’re going to slide.
Advertisement
Tyler McDonough (3) hit five homers in 2019 for NC State and three in the truncated 2020 season, then busted out for 15 this spring at age 22. A switch-hitter who’s played second, third, and center for the Wolfpack, McDonough can get way in the bucket on the left side, and likes the ball middle-up either way. He also had a terrible time with changeups this year. The power seems legit, but the hit tool is more suspect.
Puerto Rican right-hander Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (4) is an extreme projection guy who won’t turn 18 until August; he has a good delivery and present command but will take some time to fill out and add velocity.
Nathan Hickey (5) is a left-handed hitting catcher who walked more than he struck out for Florida (by two) and has a fairly simple swing that should produce contact if not much power. He has good backup potential. Daniel McElveny (6) is a high school shortstop whose best tool is his bat, lacking a clear position but with the ability to move around the infield and maybe profile at second base.
Right-hander Hunter Dobbins (8) missed the spring while recovering from preseason Tommy John surgery, but prior to that would show three pitches, a fastball up to 92, a short curveball, and a changeup with a lot of action. Tyler Miller (9) is a small bet on big power but there’s not much else there.
New York Yankees
Trey Sweeney (1) was one of the best performers in college baseball this year, hitting .382/.522/.712 for Eastern Illinois and dominating the Ohio Valley Conference. He didn’t see much quality pitching, however, and hasn’t fared well against velocity. In the field, he’s a shortstop now but is already 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, and projects to move at least to third base. If he hits, it’s a good pick, but his trouble with fastballs is a real concern.
Stanford right-hander Brendan Beck (2) is a plus command guy who can run his fastball up to 96 and a slider that doesn’t look like it’ll be plus but missed a ton of bats this spring. He has four pitches and a pretty quiet delivery. He should be at least a fourth starter, depending on how his velocity progresses in pro ball, especially when he’s pitching every fifth day.
Arizona prep lefty Brock Selvidge (3) bulked up over the winter and lost some stuff, pitching more at 88-92 when he’d previously been up to 96 and losing feel for his curveball. Prior to this spring he’d shown better stuff and more control, so there’s something more in here if the Yanks can coax it out.
Advertisement
Louisville second baseman Cooper Bowman (4) is a 55/60 runner with a short swing and no stride, a small-ball sort of player who should put the ball in play often but might lack the impact to be a regular.
Oklahoma first baseman Tyler Hardman (5) is really strong, driving the ball well the other way, but he struck out more often than you’d expect — especially since he doesn’t really chase. He’s a senior but I like the bet on a hitter with this kind of hand strength.
Right-hander Richard Fitts (6) started the year in Auburn’s rotation and looked like a first rounder, hurt his foot, lost his starter spot, and never got back on track. He’s been up to 97 in relief and 95 as a starter with a plus split-change and fringy slider. I love this pick — if the foot injury was the problem, the Yankees just got a top-50 prospect in the class.
Chandler Champlain (9) was a top 100 prospect in the 2018 draft class but went to USC instead, where he had a 5.06 ERA in the rotation this year. He’s up to 95 with a 55 to 60 curveball, coming from a high slot that gives him some deception but does make him more of a north-south pitcher. There is plenty for the Yankees to work with here, though.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays seemed to go all in on contact bats in this draft, eschewing some upside in the process. Shortstop Carson Williams (1), a San Diego area high school player, has a plus arm and really good hands at the position, but he has not hit well against velocity as an amateur and area scouts were split on whether he’d have the footwork to stay at short. He was the lowest-ranked player on my board to go in the first round. Cooper Kinney (1A) has excellent feel to hit, and should get to above-average power, but he’s a below-average runner and a below-average defender at second base, and last summer he was using an extremely wide stance that I don’t think will work against pro pitching (if he reverts to it). Washington State first baseman Kyle Manzardo (2) won’t turn 21 until next week, and he makes a lot of contact — he struck out just 12.6 percent of the time this year, hard to believe for a corner bat with some power, and he swung and missed at just 5 percent of pitches he saw. He’s more of a hitter for contact but there’s power here in his hands and he drives the ball very well the other way. He’s the sleeper of the Rays’ draft.
Georgia prep shortstop Ryan Spikes (3) is undersized at 5-9 and doesn’t have great bat speed or pitch recognition right now. He seemed like a better bet to go to college and see if he could get stronger or refine his approach. Texas Tech outfielder Dru Baker (4) struggles badly to hit anything offspeed and doesn’t offer running speed or power.
San Jacinto outfielder Mason Auer (5) is tooled up, with a plus arm and plus speed, but barely played at Missouri State before the pandemic hit last year and transferred to JUCO for this year’s draft. He raked at San Jac, leading the conference in OBP and average.
Advertisement
Lee University right-hander Logan Workman (7) has an incredibly fast arm and had his best walk rate this year as a senior for the D2 school. He doesn’t have the weapons to start right now but might hit 100 in relief. Arkansas lefty Patrick Wicklander (8) is 88-93 as a starter with a four-pitch mix but nothing plus, showing above-average control while also giving up too much contact in the air. He’s probably a minor-league depth starter for now. Senior right-hander Austin Vernon (10) will be the last player ever drafted from North Carolina Central, an HBCU that canceled its baseball program this year. He’s been up to 99 and is 6-8 with kind of a wild delivery but enough control to potentially end up a solid reliever.
Toronto Blue Jays
Gunnar Hoglund (1) would have gone in the first 10 picks or so had the Ole Miss right-hander not undergone Tommy John surgery this spring. He’s a command guy who repeats his delivery very well and will show you a basket of 55s, nothing plus but no real weakness either. Once recovered he should be able to move quickly and settle in as a fourth starter, maybe a tick better. Left-hander Ricky Tiedemann was a top-100 prospect last spring, went undrafted due to his bonus demands, and ended up at JUCO this spring. He’s mostly 88-92 with a solid-average slider, good frame, and athleticism. He still has above-average starter upside but definitely needs some development help.
Tennessee right-hander Chad Dallas (4) is 93-95 with a plus slider, but his fastball is pin-straight and he gave up 21 homers this year, mostly on fastballs, in 105 innings. He does have a starter’s build and delivery, so perhaps changing his fastball grip would alleviate his longball problem. Irv Carter (5) is a projection right-hander with a good body and a high arm slot that drives down his low-90s fastball and puts depth on the curveball. He looks the part of a teenaged starter who could suddenly throw in the mid-90s in two years. Right-hander Hayden Juenger (6) is up to 97 with a tight slider, but he threw just 21 innings for Missouri State as a mostly one-inning reliever this year. They must have an unbelievable pitching staff if they couldn’t find a use for him. Prep outfielder Jaden Rudd (7) has a simple, sound left-handed swing with an advanced approach for his age, with room for power as he fills out.
(Photo of Mayer: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
