The A’s traded a cost-controlled young starter! That’s true, but it’s more complicated than that, and trading Jesús Luzardo to Miami for Starling Marte makes them better right now, when waiting on Luzardo to reach his potential doesn’t get them any closer to the postseason.
Luzardo has always been a difficult prospect to value, because he is never healthy — seriously. He had Tommy John surgery as a high school senior in 2016, and has spent time on the injured list every year since then, maxing out at 109 innings in 2018, missing much of 2019 with a sore shoulder, contracting COVID-19 in 2020 and breaking a finger when slamming a table this May. He’s also been ineffective on the mound this year, which is somewhat new for him, as he’d generally been good when healthy.
Advertisement
Luzardo has been up to 98 mph and can sit 94-97 mph as a starter, with a plus-plus changeup and a curveball that’s very effective left-on-left. You can certainly ignore the lack of durability and think you’re looking at a No. 2 starter, with the gap between his control (above-average, trending towards plus) and his command (average, if that) being the reason he’s not more. His curveball has been closer to average this year, and major-league hitters crushed his fastball in his limited time there, so the Marlins appear to be buying very low. I see the stuff, but I can’t put much faith in him as a projected starter when he’s never even thrown 2/3 of the workload of even a back-end rotation guy in one season.
This puts the Marlins in a very interesting spot, as they have way more starters who are major-league ready, or should be for the beginning of 2022, than they have actual rotation spots. I think this could be a harbinger of a Sandy Alcantara trade, which would still leave them with Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Pablo López, Luzardo, Zach Thompson and Nick Neidert as candidates for their Opening Day rotation next year. They can trade from depth and move a young starter with many years of control left to try to get a big prospect return in a second deal.
Marte is heading for free agency while having a career year at age 32, with a career-best walk rate and a triple-slash line that nearly matches his All-Star season from 2016. His BABIP is way up this year, which seems extremely unlikely to continue, and his hard-hit rate isn’t high enough to support it. He’s still an elite defender in center, and that could carry forward, but he looks like a big overpay waiting to happen, given his age and the fluky nature of his season to date. That said, for two months, I’d be ecstatic to have him, and the A’s can use Marte to push Seth Brown to the bench and possibly release or demote Stephen Piscotty entirely, which is a huge upgrade at the plate and on defense. I imagine some A’s fans will be upset to see Luzardo go, but his health record over the last five and a half years makes this a far more even exchange than it appears on paper.
The Pirates have been busy trading away anyone who’s not nailed down, which is what they really should be doing at this point, with a solid farm system and a couple of anchors in place in the majors already in Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds. One deal sent reliever Clay Holmes to the Yankees for two prospects. Holmes’ ERA isn’t pretty this year, but he has a pair of above-average to plus pitches in his fastball and cutter, and he’s an extreme groundball guy — 64 percent in his major-league career, 72 percent this season. He throws a curveball that’s by far his worst pitch, and I imagine the Yankees will have him junk that offering. He’s probably going to be more help than his ERA indicates.
Advertisement
The Pirates get Hoy Jun Park, a shortstop who had never slugged .400 at any level of the minors before this year, and Diego Castillo, an infielder who’s played all three spots this year for Double-A Somerset and shown some power. Neither is as good as their 2021 performances — Park’s swing, in particular, doesn’t project to produce anywhere near this kind of power in the majors — but they’re worth the flier for the Pirates, and for a middle reliever like Holmes, this is a reasonable return.
They got a bit more back in the deal that sent Adam Frazier to the Padres. Frazier is having a breakout year at age 29, with a career-high .360 BABIP (after three years at .305-.306 in 2017-19) and a 10.7 percent strikeout rate that is the fourth-lowest among qualifying MLB hitters. The move gives the Padres a left-handed bat who can play second or left field, and allows them to push Jake Cronenworth to first base and bench Eric Hosmer, who has hit just .267/.331/.380 this year; even some regression from Frazier would still be an upgrade, and their defense is better with that alignment as well. (They did play Frazier in left in his first game with the team.)
The Pirates got second base prospect Tucupita Marcano, an undersized left-handed hitter with incredible bat control who posted strikeout rates under 10 percent until he reached Triple A this year, where his rate went all the way up to 12.6 percent. He’s 21 and needs to get stronger, but in his brief major-league trial, he did hit the ball hard with a reasonable frequency and showed he could get to better velocity. He’s got above-average regular upside. Michell Miliano is a right-handed reliever who can show a plus fastball and slider but walks nearly a man an inning and can’t get lefties out. Jack Suwinski has had a breakout year in Double A, and might be a platoon bat off the bench who can sort of play an outfield corner, but not well.
And then the Pirates traded Tyler Anderson to the Mariners for two low-end prospects, giving the Mariners the starting depth they needed — they started Darren McCaughan the other night, and if you don’t know his name, don’t feel bad — in exchange for two players I doubt Seattle will miss. Carter Bins was a 20-year-old junior when the Mariners took him in the 11th round in 2019, and after the lost 2020 season he’s come back as a more patient hitter, but with an ugly swing and without much else to his game. He’s a fringy catcher who has a plus arm but has thrown out just 16 percent of runners this year. Right-hander Joaquin Tejada is an 18-year-old from Panama with some arm strength and big spin rates on his breaking pitches, but he’s 5-foot-10 and probably has reliever upside rather than starter.
The Cubs are sellers for the first time in years, and traded Andrew Chafin to the A’s for outfielder Greg Deichmann and right-hander Daniel Palencia. Palencia is a great story — he signed at age 20 as a free agent in Venezuela, far older than most players are when they sign as international free agents, because his velocity came much later. The A’s had seen him at 16, but he didn’t have enough present stuff to merit signing him; Oakland’s lead scout in Venezuela, Argenis Paez, stayed in contact with the kid and eventually signed him when the projection turned into reality. Palencia has been up to 99 mph in his pro debut this year with the makings of two secondary pitches, so there’s a slight chance he can develop into a starter, and there’s real upside for him as a reliever. Deichmann is 26, and was Oakland’s No. 9 prospect coming into the year; I had him pegged as a power hitter who’d walk and strike out a lot, but to his credit, he’s shown better contact skills (without much power so far) in Triple A. He’s shown the ability to hit for average, and the power is still in there, so I like the odds of him combining it all and becoming at least an everyday corner outfielder, with more offensive upside.
(Photo of Luzardo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
