The Dodgers didn’t really need Max Scherzer or Trea Turner, let alone both, but it wouldn’t be the American way to say no to something just because you don’t need it. They have the money, and they have the prospects, so — though the deal is not yet final — they went out and got the biggest upgrade in one deal that we’re likely to see this trade deadline. The Nationals are expected to get four minor leaguers back, three of them decent prospects, but I can at least see a reasonable argument that they should have gotten more given the Dodgers’ prospect wealth.
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The Dodgers now get a second No. 1 starter to go before or after Walker Buehler in their rotation, relegating Clayton Kershaw to the third spot (not that it matters) when he returns from the injured list. Their rotation wasn’t a weakness, but they lacked depth, and swapping Josiah Gray, their sixth or seventh starter right now, for Scherzer, allowing them to keep David Price in a relief or swing role, should be worth a win or more the rest of the way, and definitely makes them more potent in October.
Turner is the more interesting part of the deal for Los Angeles, however, as he’s not a free agent until after 2022, and his presence may indicate the Dodgers are willing to let Corey Seager leave in free agency this winter. Turner is the better defensive shortstop of the two, and the better hitter as well, having developed more power than I ever foresaw from him — he’s at 18 homers already, one away from tying his career high — without losing anything else from his game. He’s over 4 WAR already this year, on top of 2.7 WAR (by FanGraphs) in the shortened 2020 season. So even though the guy he’s most likely to replace, Gavin Lux, is more than just a replacement-level player, Turner should be at least a win better, maybe a win and a half, over the last two months of this season.
The Nationals get the Dodgers’ top prospect coming into this season in right-hander Gray, although he’s since been surpassed by catcher Diego Cartaya on that ranking, as well as catcher Keibert Ruiz (No. 80 in baseball coming into 2021), right-hander Gerardo Carrillo and outfielder Donovan Casey. Gray debuted in the majors July 20 after missing two months of the minor-league season because of a right shoulder impingement. He’s at 93-96 mph on his four-seamer with good run on the pitch along with a plus curveball, a fringy slider and an above-average changeup that he has thrown only three times so far in the majors but which is 88-90 with good fade and has allowed him to have no real platoon split anywhere in pro ball. Major-league hitters seemed to square up his fastball more than expected, though that’s in a tiny sample. He’s a converted shortstop who only started pitching exclusively in 2018, so he’s still less experienced than most 23-year-olds, and there may be more development ahead of him. He should go right into the Nationals’ rotation and has No. 2 starter upside.
The Dodgers have been offering Ruiz in trades for at least a year now, with Will Smith ahead of him and Cartaya behind as well as questions about Ruiz’s skills behind the plate. He has been having a huge season in Triple A, hitting .311/.381/.631 for Oklahoma City with almost as many walks as strikeouts, finally showing the raw power he’s always had in games this year — 16 homers in 52 games so far. He’s always been a great contact hitter, and now with the power coming on, he could be a star if he stays behind the plate; his bat would make him one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He is not great defensively but playable there despite a fringy arm. It has concerned other teams for a while that the Dodgers were so willing to part with Ruiz, but the fact he’s produced like this in Triple A as a 22-year-old should alleviate some of that. Even if he has to move off catcher, the bat would play even at a corner or at DH.
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Carrillo is incredibly fun to watch — he’s 5-foot-10 and can reach 100 mph with a power curveball around 80 mph, but he’s a max-effort guy and too wild to project as a starter, with 29 walks and 16 hit batters in 59.1 innings in Double A this year, right in line with his stats from before the lockdown. Casey is a 25-year-old outfielder who is hitting .296/.362/.462 in Double A with a 31 percent strikeout rate; he’s adequate in center field but not more than that and has the arm for right — but I don’t think there’s enough hit tool here to make him a regular in center, or enough power to make him one in right field.
Many people tend to want to know who won a trade, or at least, whether their team gets enough back in a trade of veterans for prospects. Answering that is usually complicated. There are some trades in which it’s clear from the start which side did better, but in most cases, we’re talking probabilities and ranges of outcomes. What are the odds that Gray becomes a No. 2 starter? The odds that Ruiz stays behind the plate, and his offensive prowess makes him a 4-5 WAR player? What about the downside risk?
I think the Nats can come out pretty well from this deal, but I could argue just as persuasively that it’s not enough for two months of Scherzer and a year-plus of Turner, both of whom are difference-makers by themselves. They didn’t get the Dodgers’ best prospect, Cartaya, or third-best, Michael Busch, and the two lower-profile players in the deal are probably a reliever (maybe a good one, as plenty of good relievers were once starters with poor control) and a fourth outfielder. They also didn’t get Lux, who could have been Turner’s replacement, and might be out of a job for 2021 once Corey Seager returns from the injured list.
Gray did miss two months with a shoulder issue, and maybe his fastball isn’t quite what we thought it was while he was coming up in the minors. Maybe Ruiz isn’t a catcher after all; I know some scouts who doubt it. Would Turner have fetched at least this much in the winter, with one year remaining until free agency but more teams potentially bidding for his services? I have questions without clear answers here. My gut feeling on this is that the Nats will end up with enough on-field value from Gray and Ruiz that they will be able to say, with justification, that they got enough of a return — but that two guys as impactful as Scherzer and Turner should have fetched a little bit more.
(Photo of Josiah Gray: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)
