The Rockies just traded one of the five best players in franchise history, one with an argument that he was in fact the best, for one of the weakest returns I have ever seen for a player of this magnitude and impact. The Cardinals, meanwhile, get a player they didn’t really need — not with the other four teams in the NL Central actively running in the opposite direction from “contention” this winter — but one who will absolutely help them and addresses one of the few weak spots on the roster.
Advertisement
Nolan Arenado is one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball and has been so since the moment he reached the majors. He also has led the National League in homers three times and in doubles once. He has been worth 32 WAR by Fangraphs, 39 by Baseball-Reference, and in both versions he’s fourth all time among Rockies players. He has been worth five to six wins a year, consistently. Without him, the Rockies are going nowhere in 2021 … or 2022 … and maybe beyond.
Arenado’s contract is very player-friendly, and I’m sure that affected his trade value. He’s due $35 million this year, and can opt out of the deal after this season. If he doesn’t, he’s due $35 million in 2022 and can opt out again after that season. If he doesn’t, he’s due another $129 million over four more years. The Rockies have some history of giving out deals like this and then trying to find another team to take them, but at least in this case, Arenado was still worth every penny, and every contender other than the Padres and Angels should have been all over acquiring him.
Teams have traded franchise players before, and often the return is a bit disappointing. Cleveland fans were less than thrilled to see Francisco Lindor go to the Mets for two young major leaguers who haven’t performed yet and two second-tier prospects. But what must especially gall Rockies fans is that they dealt Arenado for a package any contender could have matched or beaten, and the team is still chipping in money to pay a portion of Arenado’s remaining contract (some of it contingent on him declining to opt out).
The Rockies get five players back, and I think the most charitable thing I can say is that none of these guys projects as a potential five-win player at any point in the future. Lefty Austin Gomber was a rookie in 2018, then missed more than half of 2019 with shoulder and biceps injuries, pitching mostly out of the bullpen for St. Louis in 2020. He has had some success in the minors despite lacking a real plus pitch or above-average command, but he’s left-handed and both his curve and changeup at least show something more than average. He’s not the type of pitcher I’d expect to see succeed in Coors Field, though.
Advertisement
Elehuris Montero is the one prospect going to the Rockies who would have been in the Cardinals’ top 20. He was in my Top 100 two years ago, but he broke a hamate bone that April in the same year that the Cardinals jumped him up two levels to Double A. He hit just .188/.235/.317 in 59 games around a two-month stint on the injured list, including surgery to repair the hamate. He’s a third baseman who might end up at first base, and the hand injury obscured any hitting ability he has. He was in the Top 100 because I thought he could really hit and would get to 20-plus homer power. He might still, but there’s no arguing that his value right now is down, with no 2020 performance to boost his stock. He’s the guy in the deal with the best chance of having that five- or at least four-win season.
Shortstop Mateo Gil, the son of former Rangers shortstop Benji, was the Cardinals’ third-round pick in 2018 out of high school. He has a longish swing but projects to get to above-average power down the road, while he’s probably not going to stay at shortstop given his below-average speed. He hasn’t played above short-season other than two games in high A. Tony Locey was the Cardinals’ third-round pick in 2019, a future reliever who’s 93-97 from a high arm slot and has a mid-80s slider but not much of a third pitch and a delivery that won’t work in the rotation. Jake Sommers was a 10th-round pick in 2019 as a senior out of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, where he worked as a reliever before the Cardinals put him in the rotation for short-season Johnson City. He’s an org pitcher.
You can trade a franchise player and be better off in the long run. You don’t have to make a Herschel Walker trade to do it, but you have to get real value in return — prospects or young major leaguers (“zero to two” guys, meaning players with major-league experience who aren’t yet eligible for arbitration) who bring upside and years of control and low salaries in the short term. The Rays got several good prospects, one of whom made my Top 100 last week, in exchange for Blake Snell. In this trade, however, the Rockies just dumped a contract, failing to acquire any players who seem likely to be part of the core of their next playoff team. That is the part that should most get under Rockies fans’ skins.
(Photo: Justin Edmonds / Getty Images)
