The Orioles’ rebuild progresses somewhat slowly, held back a bit by the lack of major-league players for general manager Mike Elias to trade for prospects. Some of their draft choices have seemed like low value for the picks, and Elias inherited neither an analytics department nor an international scouting department. That last part explains why there’s only one player on this list born in Latin America, and he was acquired via trade.
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Adley Rutschman, C (Top 100 rank: No. 6)
From the Top 100: The Orioles took Rutschman with the first overall pick in 2019, and he probably would be on the cusp of the majors if it weren’t for the pandemic. A switch-hitting catcher with power and incredible patience at the plate, Rutschman is also an advanced defensive catcher who earns raves for his work with pitchers and shows a plus arm, nailing 7 of 11 runners in pro ball after he signed. His right-handed swing can get long, but his left-handed swing is more compact, and he should be able to hit for both contact and power. If he hits for enough average, he’s going to be a frequent MVP candidate, and his power/defense combo gives him a floor as a solid regular.
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2. DL Hall, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 49)
From the Top 100: Hall was the Orioles’ first-round pick in 2017 and has missed a ton of bats in pro ball, striking out 29 percent of batters he faced in full-season ball, but he’s been wild and walked nearly 1 in 6 batters he faced in High A in 2019. Hall is a great athlete who’ll show three above-average to plus pitches, pitching at 93-96 with a very tight, two-plane curveball and low-80s changeup; the curveball has helped him destroy left-handed batters, while his main issue with right-handers is walks rather than contact. His delivery is fine, but he rushes through it and tries to overpower guys rather than using his swing-and-miss stuff as is, which really should improve with repetitions and maturity. Hall has at least No. 2 starter stuff, and I’m betting on the athleticism and delivery to get him to average control, although that’s not going to improve until we get minor league games.
3. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 55)
From the Top 100: Rodriguez was the Orioles’ first-round pick in 2018 and dominated Low A the following year as a 19-year-old, working on a very restrictive set of pitch and innings counts where he only pitched into the seventh inning once all year. Rodriguez is built like a workhorse at 6-5 and 220 pounds (listed), and could blow his 94-96 mph fastball right by Low-A hitters, elevating it when he needed to. He has three secondary pitches, led by a tight 11/5 curveball that isn’t consistent but can show good depth and that he can throw for strikes, while his slider remains a work in progress. His delivery has a big pause in it that limits how much power he can derive from his lower half, and some cross-body action because of where his front leg strikes. Despite the mechanical stuff, he shows close to average control, and command I’d call good for someone his age. When he gets to pitch in games again, I’d like to see improvement to his off-speed stuff and a smoother delivery that lets him drive with his legs more, so he can get to his No. 2 starter upside.
4. Heston Kjerstad, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 85)
From the Top 100: The Orioles took Kjerstad, an outfielder at the University of Arkansas, with the second overall pick in 2020, cutting an under-slot deal with him so they could overpay two high school players in the fourth and fifth rounds. Kjerstad has a big bat with excellent hand acceleration and history of hard contact … when he makes contact, which has been an issue for him in the past when facing better competition in the SEC. He’s a capable right fielder who should be no worse than average with the glove, although he played some first base in college as well. There’s some noise early in his approach at the plate, which may be behind the swing and miss, but when he squares something up he hits the ball hard, with 30-homer power to go with what will likely be a 25 percent strikeout rate or more.
5. Ryan Mountcastle, OF
Mountcastle’s big-league debut went extremely well, better than I would have forecast, although small-sample-size caveats apply. He’s a big, strong kid who should hit for 25-plus homer power, but his patience and ball-strike recognition have always lagged behind, evident in his walk rates in the minors, which maxed out at 6.1 percent in Double A. He raked in the majors, with more contact than power, and walked nearly 8 percent of the time … but he struggled with breaking stuff and still chased pitches out of the zone at a rate 40 percent above the league average. He can strike out 22 percent of the time and be an adequate regular or excellent fourth outfielder, but he’s not going to post a .398 BABIP going forward.
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6. Adam Hall, SS
Adam Hall was my sleeper for the organization last year, but as a native Canadian, he wasn’t able to come to the U.S. until instructional league, by which point he hadn’t faced live pitching in nearly a year and looked rusty. Before the pandemic, at least, he was a 70 runner with improving plate discipline and the arm and actions to be an average shortstop or above-average-to-plus second baseman.
7. Gunnar Henderson, SS
Henderson was their second-round pick in 2019 on the basis of his bat and potential to play somewhere on the dirt, showing the O’s enough that they invited him to be one of the youngest players at their alternate site so he could face major-league-quality arms. He played all over the field and though he’s likely to continue as a shortstop, he has the arm for third base and I think he eventually gets pushed there.
8. Michael Baumann, RHP
Before Baumann got hurt — an elbow issue that did not require surgery — he was probably the most improved pitcher at the Orioles’ alternate site, showing a much better breaking ball and cutter than in the past. Combined with his fastball, which was up to 98 mph in college and usually 90-96 mph in the minors, he could have a real chance to be a mid-rotation starter if he shows that improved stuff this year.
9. Jahmai Jones, 2B/OF
The Orioles traded Alex Cobb to the Angels in early February, getting a real, if perplexing, prospect in Jones, a converted outfielder who has taken well to second base but hasn’t hit anywhere near his capabilities. Jones has plus power and makes hard contact, and was doing more of it as the Angels’ alternate camp progressed, leading to a brief call-up in late September, during which he smoked a pair of singles in two games. His exit velocities are good, and he hits enough balls on a line that he should have hit for higher averages and at least more doubles in 2019, but he didn’t. He’s an extremely hard worker, as shown by the effort he put into becoming a second baseman. Maybe he just needs more reps, but I think he’s a better player than we saw two years ago.
10. Dean Kremer, RHP
Kremer had a reverse platoon split in his four major-league starts but is likely to go back the other way given more time. He was 92-95 mph with a new cutter that does give him something to use against lefties, and the Orioles have gotten him more online to the plate, so his chances to stay a starter and maybe get to league average have improved.
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11. Yusniel Díaz, OF
Diaz came with Kremer in the Manny Machado trade and really should have seen the majors in 2020, but the Orioles prioritized Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander in the corner outfield spots and gave José Iglesias 13 starts at DH rather than calling Díaz up. He’s a contact hitter with plus raw power that plays down in games because of his swing path, but he could sneak into everyday status as a corner guy if he gets the opportunity.
12. Zac Lowther, LHP
Lowther works in the upper 80s but gets huge extension in his delivery that provides him with ridiculous deception and high spin rates on his fastball and breaking ball. So far he’s been able to get guys out with stuff that might have graded out as fringy or below average just five years ago. He’ll just have to keep proving it at each level, but he at least has the elements in his command, deception and spin to be a successful back-end starter.
13. Keegan Akin, LHP
Akin made six starts and two relief appearances for the Orioles in 2020, working heavily off his high-spin fastball and above-average changeup. He threw a lot of strikes and his curveball, which has above-average spin as well, shows promise, although his slider might be one pitch too many. He has a wider range of outcomes with the inconsistency of his secondary stuff and command, but there’s more reason for confidence he can last as a starter now.
14. Kevin Smith, LHP
Smith came from the Mets in a deal for right-hander Miguel Castro in August, a savvy move for the Orioles given Smith’s outside chance to be a starter and solid floor in the bullpen. He’s 6-foot-5, 200 pounds and still has some unfulfilled projection in his frame, with very good extension and an above-average breaking ball. If his changeup develops more — it was below-average in 2019 — he could end up in a rotation.
15. Jordan Westburg, SS
The Orioles’ second-round pick out of Mississippi State, Westburg is a very good athlete who could stay at shortstop or probably be an above-average defender at second or third, but he struck out too often in college and has a big leak at the plate that led to trouble with off-speed stuff.
16. Terrin Vavra, 2B
Vavra has great bat control and very good instincts on both sides of the ball, with the ability to move around on defense and fill in at short or in center, although if he’s a regular anywhere it’ll likely be at second.
17. Tyler Nevin, 1B/OF
Nevin came with Vavra from the Rockies in the Mychal Givens trade, and perhaps the change of scenery will unlock some of the power in Nevin’s frame, as his swing doesn’t get the ball in the air enough, and given his limited defensive options he has to put the ball in the seats more.
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18. Hudson Haskin, OF
Haskin was an age-eligible sophomore when the Orioles took him in the second round in 2020 after an impressive 73 games for Tulane in a year-plus in which he walked more than he struck out and showed plus speed on the bases and in center. He should be a 55 to 60 defender, but he has to prove his unorthodox swing will work and produce impact against pro pitching.
19. Ryan McKenna, OF
McKenna is a very athletic center fielder, a plus runner with great bat speed, and a very likely fourth outfielder who hasn’t hit in nearly 200 games in Double A. He didn’t have a ton of experience entering pro ball, growing up in New Hampshire, so I’ll cut him a little more slack, but he’s going to have to do more with the contact he makes to be a decent big leaguer.
20. Kyle Bradish, RHP
Bradish was the best of the four players the Orioles obtained from the Angels for Dylan Bundy. He’ll work in the mid-90s but doesn’t throw enough strikes right now, and his high arm slot and high-effort delivery point to a future in relief.
Others of note
Lefty Alex Wells works in the upper 80s with great deception and plus command, generating weak contact up through Double A, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher and might be too homer prone in the majors to have a role beyond a swingman or sixth starter. Every once in a while a guy like this defies the odds, though, and becomes a legitimate starter. I don’t know if Wells is that guy, but he at least has the command for it. … The Orioles went over slot in the fourth round to sign Coby Mayo, a prep third baseman who is very tall but doesn’t have the footwork for the hot corner now, and whose big swing is undermined by a glide over his front side that will make it hard for him to hit off-speed stuff. … Right-hander Isaac Mattson came over in the Dylan Bundy trade with Bradish; Mattson is a fastball-slider guy who finished 2019 in Triple A and should see the majors this year after the Orioles added him to the 40. … Carter Baumler was their fifth-round pick in 2020, another over-slot guy. He’s a projectable high school righty with some feel to spin a curveball but needed Tommy John surgery after signing. … Rylan Bannon might surface as a utility infielder, as the Orioles added him to the 40-man, and he can play second and third but has too little power to be more than that.
2021 impact
Mountcastle has the left-field job for now, and Kremer and Akin should both begin the season in Baltimore’s big-league rotation. Matson should appear in the bullpen at some point. Baumann and Lowther are in line for jobs when the O’s need another starter.
Sleeper
Adam Hall was my pick last year. I’m also very interested to see if the Orioles can work with Nevin’s swing and unlock more power.
(Photo of Adley Rutschman: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
