This trade seems very win-now for the Rays. They have been more aggressive in trading prospects the last few years as they try to keep their major-league roster in contending shape (especially as the AL East might be softening for a year or two), while working against their typical long-term strategy of developing their own pitching because they’ll never go sign it in free agency. They also seem to value the two hitters they got back more than the industry does, which seems like St. Louis’ good fortune … but forgive me if I can’t help but think that the Cardinals plan to keep lefty Matt Liberatore moving in another deal to try to improve their roster for 2020.
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Liberatore was the Rays’ first-round pick in 2018, and a top-five talent in that draft class. He just turned 20 in November and is coming off a solid full-season debut in low-A Bowling Green, where he made 15 starts and threw 78 1/3 innings with 76 strikeouts and 31 walks. Liberatore works in the low 90s and will run it up to 95-96 mph, with big spin rates on his breaking stuff and a very good feel for pitching for his age, which I’d say made his walk rate a bit surprising. He’s a really good athlete, the kind of raw material teams seem to particularly value right now because of the belief that strong athletes take better to mechanical and pitch adjustments. I think he has No. 2 starter upside, given the velocity, quality breaking stuff, and athleticism, but of course he’s got the risk associated with any 20-year-old who hasn’t even thrown 100 innings in a season yet.
Randy Arozarena seems like the Rays’ main target here, although his profile is an unusual one and he definitely has to either hit for consistently high averages or unlock more power to be a regular. Arozarena can play center field but isn’t good or even clearly average there; he’s better cast in a corner, where he should be at least a 55 defender on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. He never showed average power until he returned to Triple A last year, where he got to hit the major-league baseball and whacked 12 homers in 283 PA, more than doubling his isolated power from his previous Triple A stint (.116 in 2018, .236 in 2019). His swing doesn’t really have much loft in it right now, so unless the Rays think they can optimize his launch angle I don’t think he’s going to be a 20-homer guy. He’s a plus runner who the Cardinals’ player development staff would often praise as their best baserunner, but that hasn’t translated into net positive value in stolen bases yet. He does make hard contact with consistently low strikeout rates, so there’s enough reason to think he can hit near .300 with a lot of doubles to see a path for him to be a regular in left field. That leaves newly acquired Hunter Renfroe on the bench, or waiting for an Austin Meadows injury.
José Martínez probably needs to be a DH, or at least a first baseman, as he’s brutal in the outfield, and he has yet to show the power to really profile at DH/1B — or to hit right-handed pitching enough to be more than the weak side of a platoon, as he has destroyed lefties (.331/.405/.570 in his career in just short of 300 PA). He could platoon with Ji-Man Choi at first or the newly signed Yoshi Tsutsugo at DH, as both are left-handed hitters. Martínez has a few years of control left, but he’s 31 with a limited skill set and I doubt he’ll still be valuable by the time he runs into free agency. The Rays do also move up about 40 spots in the draft with the exchange of picks in this trade, which also gets them a substantially larger draft pool for 2020 in what looks like a very strong draft class.
The elephant in the room is whether the Cardinals acquired Liberatore to keep him moving. They’re also in win-now mode, so adding a top starting pitching prospect who won’t likely see the majors until 2022 doesn’t align with their competitive window, while I would guess any of the teams currently shopping elite offensive players — I don’t know, maybe Nolan Arenado? Or Mookie Betts? — would love to see Liberatore added to a potential trade package.
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The trade also gives the Rays a lot of extra corner outfield/first base/DH types who might in theory have some trade value, although there are also a lot of those guys still out there in free agency (Hunter Pence, Yasiel Puig) who could be had for a one-year deal and probably a pittance in guaranteed money. Nate Lowe might have value in trade if they do want to work from their surplus, as he’s a potential regular and still has six years of team control left. Of course, that’s what the Cardinals just did: they traded two surplus outfielders to Tampa for a starter prospect. Now the Rays have the same kind of surplus, but one fewer team with whom they might work out a trade.
(Top photo of Liberatore: Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
