Keith Law: Feel like I’m floating in a warm sea. Klawchat.
Steve: sooo… Soroka is out with some shoulder issues already… time for me to completely panic on him?
Keith Law: Not panic, but concern, yes. I’ve voiced my issues with his delivery for a while now – I think his arm swing puts stress on his shoulder – and this is twice in two years that he’s come up sore.
J: Happy spring training! With his freedom for Baltimore, and the SSS success of the end of the year for Kevin Gausman, what are your thoughts heading into 2019? Optimistic at all? What does a good but reasonable year look like for him?
Keith Law: Optimistic, but his Atlanta run last year included some crazy luck on balls in play (even accounting for batted-ball quality). I think his K% will go up and he’ll have fewer of those disaster starts that marked so much of his time in Baltimore.
Zach: Do the Rockies actually think Desmond should start in center? This is just a sunk cost that they’re unwilling to admit, right? They have to understand how much a minus he’s been since he signed there.
Keith Law: Yes, this is my belief – they won’t just accept the cost is sunk, and are determined to play him.
Jon: As a Philly resident, I really enjoyed your restaurant list. Have you been to Parc yet? If so, what did you think?
Keith Law: Never been.
Anthony: Will Manuel Margot ever be a 100 wRC+ guy?
Keith Law: Yes.
J: In terms of Yordan Alvarez’s ranking, to what extent is falling outside the top-100 about DH-probably? And to what extent is it that the bat just doesn’t look as good as the numbers do?
Keith Law: Both. Body projects poorly long-term too.
Nick: Are the Phillies bidding against themselves for Harper?
Keith Law: Doubt that. But they are probably bidding against Machado’s contract.
J: Brendan Rodgers 2019 250 PA atAAA/250 PA in MLB?
Keith Law: Seems like a fair bet.
John S: In light of the record setting deal, what do you make of the Padres opening the books to claim poverty weeks before signing Machado? Not that we will ever know for sure, but… was it a negotiation ploy? Do you think that the backlash from fans and some media had any affect in the decision to sign MM?
Keith Law: Don’t think it was a ploy; I think they recognized that adding Machado would likely produce revenues & franchise value well in excess of what he’ll cost.
HH: Does Tristan McKenzie appear in the majors this year?
Keith Law: Unlikely but not impossible.
Charlie L.: Are you going to Spiel this year? I’ve been living in Germany for about 18 months now and think I should go, but mein Deutsch ist nicht gut so if you have any English-speaking advice it’d be grand.
Keith Law: Never been – it’s a bad time in the baseball schedule. I’ll do GenCon and PAX unplugged again.
J: Oneil Cruz is pretty fascinating. He feels like… 10% star, 70% bust/bench guy, 20% solid player. Off in any direction?
Keith Law: It’s hard to see him becoming just a solid player. Either he’s above-average or he’s nothing. He is fascinating, though.
Andres: Hey Klaw! As a Mets fan, what should I hope for when it comes to D. Smith and A. Rosario? You think the Mets finally let the youngsters just do their thing?
Keith Law: I think Rosario will get to just do his thing and Smith will get buried by Alonso and Davis.
James: Of all teams the freakin’ Padres invested $444 million on two players over the past two years, including the largest free agent contract in American sports history. I really don’t want to hear another front office say that they don’t have money to spend ever again.
Keith Law: Every team has money; they do not want to reduce their profits. I’ll give a pass to Tampa Bay and Oakland, who really do take in less revenue than the other clubs, but that’s all.
Mike: Keith, how often are you recognized by fans at non baseball related events and where is the strangest place a fan has approached you?
Keith Law: Happening a bit more lately, which is flattering. One of you spotted me on the rental car shuttle this morning.
Chris: Did you know Nick Cafardo at all? Any favorite stories about him?
Keith Law: I did – he was always very nice both to me and to others whenever I saw him.
Joe S: Baseball related question now: what are your opinions on the Vlad Guerrero Jr situation?
Keith Law: I’ve written about this many, many times. He belonged in the majors last summer.
Joshua: There is growing buzz for Julio Rodriguez on the Mariners, what have you heard amongst scouts? Anything noteworthy?
Keith Law: Growing buzz how? I did have him in my Mariners’ org report, but nothing’s new since then.
Darren: Which pitcher do you think has the greater upside, Brandon Woodruff or Joey Lucchesi?
Keith Law: Woodruff. Lucchesi is a back-end guy only. Woodruff could be mid-rotation/a little above league-average.
Ray: For Mike Soroka’s write up in the Top 100 you wrote “…even though he has that low slot and an arm swing that puts some stress on the shoulder.” Do you have any biomechanical data to back up that claim?
Keith Law: I have pointed out issues with deliveries for years – scouts have been evaluating pitchers’ mechanics since long before I was in the industry, probably since before I was born – and this is no different. I don’t use “biomechanical data,” whatever you might think that is, in these scouting reports.
Andrew: How nervous should I be about Soroka’s shoulder?
Keith Law: See above, but yeah, I’m concerned.
Marques: If you ran the Padres, would you pursue external pitching or wait for your system to come up at this point?
Keith Law: I’d pursue external pitching this summer and next winter. Let some of the A-ball prospects advance a little and they’ll have a bit more trade value.
Buckner 86: I looked back on 2017 & 2018 and never saw anything on Josh James in your Houston top 10. Can you give a little write up about him here? Thanks
Keith Law: He’s in this year’s top 100 and he’s in this piece from September that explains why he went from borderline non-prospect to potential mid-rotation starter.
John: Do you think steroids are still prevalent in baseball? And if so, how widespread would you guess usage to be?
Keith Law: I do not … except for international free agents. The testing results that I’ve heard indicate that many July 2nd prospects have at least tested positive for banned substances. The % depends on where you draw the line of ‘prospects’ but I have heard major names coming up positive in recent years.
Bobby C: I read that Harper has no offers for 300 mil. now. Surely he won’t sign for less than Machado?
Keith Law: Can’t imagine he would.
Keith Law: I think signing second is also the way to ‘win’ that particular competition.
Guest: Even aside from Harper/Kimbrel/Keuchel, are there way more free agents than normal dangling at this date?
Keith Law: I believe so but I haven’t actually counted/compared.
Tim: Should people feel dirty listening to Michael Jackson, R. Kelly, watching Polanski or Allen movies, etc? Is the solution to stop listening/watching?
Keith Law: Depends on your comfort level. I actually feel like Jackson’s is the easiest call, as he’s no longer alive to benefit from someone purchasing or listening to his music.
David: Do you think Eloy starts after spending 2 weeks in AAA?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s ready too.
Nick: Who did you come to see in Houston, and how did they look?
Keith Law: JJ Goss, who looked great, and Matt Thompson, who has to be hurt; his was in the mid-80s by the end of his outing. I haven’t had a ton of time to write this week up – and Bobby Witt’s doubleheader today got banged so I’m not sure I’ll see him.
Casey: When the Cardinals drafted Scott Hurst and Kramer Robertson with their first two picks in 2017 I don’t think anyone thought they’d be stars but would at least be useful bench players. Is that still the projection for them or are they non prospects at this point?
Keith Law: Hurst maybe – he was hurt a ton last year, and was too old for Peoria, but I don’t want to write him off just yet. Robertson is probably an NP.
Mark: How far out are we before we see the bulk of the Padres pitching prospects?
Keith Law: Paddack, Allen, Nix all see the majors this year. The best guys like Gore, Morejon, and Patino are 2021 and beyond. Well, Morejon could get there faster, but they’ve been cautious with him since he’s had some minor arm stuff.
JR: You see Aubrey Huff’s twitter fit after MM signed and people came after him based on one of his tweets? He specifically called you out as the “poster child of new era of pointless stat geeks” and said give him 25 guys with heart, grit and determination. How has no one handed him a GM job yet since he has it all figured out?
Keith Law: I saw. He wanted attention. Meh.
FA: What’s the last book you read ? And what non fiction and fiction books would you recommend? Thx
Keith Law: If you look below this post on the blog, you’ll see a review of the last non-fiction book I read. The last novel I read was Le Carre’s A Murder of Quality.
Ryan: Klaw, how reliable do you think the advanced defensive metrics are for past players?
Keith Law: Directionally correct. Doubt they’re all that precise without play-by-play data including ball location.
Ken: Would a good solution to the Guerrero situation be to end the separate service time calculations for the minors and MLB and replace it with something like 8 years of combined control between the two?
Keith Law: I love that idea in theory, although 1) owners would have a fit and 2) it would dramatically change how we draft and develop players. Those unintended consequences deserve more consideration.
JR: Twins got a steal with Marwin at 2/21MM right?
Keith Law: Yes. I view that contract as a sign that something’s amiss in the market.
David: Please help me understand. Jo Adell is a 6-3 / 215 super freak athlete with throws 97, has a 44-inch vert and led the nation in HRs. And a team like Philly drafts a slap hitting 4th OFer over him. Why don’t teams use the draft to take the best talent available and then trust their org to develop them? Has a team ever built a championship roster by drafting league average or below low upside starters in the Top 10?
Keith Law: Adell wasn’t very good before that spring, and then had some kind of arm issue too. The Phillies’ first-round woes are a separate issue, but I wouldn’t use Adell as your counterexample. I’m surprised the Phils haven’t overhauled their draft approach, though.
Pat: Mike Elias is essentially doing 2 jobs at the moment: GM of the Orioles, and Scouting Director of the Orioles. How long can that keep going? Seems like these are 2 separate 60+ hours a week jobs.
Keith Law: Devil’s advocate: If you were the Orioles’ GM, how much would you really need to watch the major-league club this spring? They don’t have many prospects near the majors, and they don’t have a lot of difficult roster decisions. Plus watching that team every day might drain Elias’ soul.
Jeff: So many Braves questions! Do think think Fried or Gohara is more likely to see more time as a starter this year?
Keith Law: Gohara but I like both quite a bit.
Guest: I got the board game Sagrada based on your positive review and have been enjoying it (thank you). Along with Azul, I like how it evokes an ancient creative art in an abstract way. What board game is the most aesthetically pleasing to you?
Keith Law: Takenoko and Tokaido, both by the same designer, are also gorgeous games. Everdell is too. Publishers are putting more effort into game art & design now.
Ttttt: Is Texas giving Lance Lynn 3/30 the worst free agent deal of the offseason? They could have gotten him for two years at a lower AAV, and he was awful last year.
Keith Law: It’s a bad deal compared to how the market went the rest of the winter, but I think he’ll deliver value commensurate with the contract.
Pat: Opposing batters in 2018 hit .302/.371/.574 against Dylan Bundy’s fastball, .360/.421/.733 against his changeup, and .419/.419./.645 against his curveball. However, they only hit .178/.216/.360 off his slider/cutter. Is he a candidate to go to the bullpen and essentially be a 1-pitch pony?
Keith Law: Cutter was his best pitch as an amateur too. I think he needs to relieve for bigger reasons than this, but your idea is pretty good.
Max G: Thoughts on Abraham Toro?
Keith Law: Maybe a bench guy.
Sam: I’m here for the baseball but seem to agree on your political views more consistently. Do you have any go-to sources you, um, go to?
Keith Law: I try to read a lot of sources but I will say I find british takes on US and world politics are often more informative – the BBC and the Guardian in particular.
Obscure music reference: Keithchat
Keith Law: This absolutely cracked me up.
Aaron Houston: KLAW, in regards to you being in Houston, how do you specifically get notified about certain highschoolers? Does someone literally say “KLAW, this kid is A GUY!!!”? Siphons are great and have a cool factor about them, but I agree they are expensive. Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes, I talk to scouts and they tell me who I need to see. Eric Longenhagen and I chatted earlier this week about guys we’d heard about too. He had a few names I didn’t have, and I think I had a couple he didn’t have.
Chris: Man the whatabouters/second chancers were out in force on your reaction to the Heyman/Reyes tweet, huh?
Keith Law: They were so quick to whatabout me they didn’t take five seconds to try the google.
Jon: Do you have any thoughts on Jason Ochart and DriveLine baseball working with the Phillies prospects? Is there anything to look for from Haseley or Moniak that would be a successful sign of a change in swing or approach?
Keith Law: Those guys are swing overhaul candidates, not minor changes. I’m not optimistic about either but that has nothing to do with Driveline or Ochart.
Don’t Stick to Baseball: Pretty sure we have similar age kids. I am picking up on a great deal of college prep advice and pressure directed at students these days as early as 6th grade. I find this unproductive and have been trying to guide my son to pursue his interests, work hard, and let that be enough, particularly as he’s still 2 years from high school, even). As someone that went to a prestigious university, what kind of advice are you giving youngsters these days?
Keith Law: That young? I don’t give them any advice. That’s way too young for that stuff.
Hesqo : Assuming he has another quality season and stays healthy, does Anthony Rendon crack 25 per year on a long term deal next offseason?
Keith Law: In theory, yes, but after this winter … who knows.
Rick Sanchez: It definitely stung to see my ChiSox whiff on Machado. With Jiminez, Cease, Kopech, Robert, Madrigal, etc. waiting in the wings, do you think we have enough to make the playoffs in 2020?
Keith Law: Yes, but I look at them more as a homegrown core that could use some outside help. Maybe they’ll feel more like spending if guys like Giolito or Moncada have big years in 2019.
Chris: Severino ext a good deal for Yanks, with the proviso pitchers are always a risk and maybe somewhat moreso for him given your concerns with his top heavy delivery?
Keith Law: If his second half was really about him tipping pitches – I am skeptical of such claims about 90% of the time – then yes.
Mike: I read this week that Loaisiga hired a trainer and worked on strengthening the smaller muscles in his shoulder. Spring optimism aside, why wouldn’t the Yankees get a guy like that a trainer, given the potential payout if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Offseason work is too often considered the player’s responsibility, rather than the team’s.
Augustus : Are you a believer in superstition? Any wild stuff you’ve seen players do?
Keith Law: I am certainly not.
Joe: Did you ignore my question about why you didn’t think Andujar was a good fit for the Padres because you knew they would sign Machado?
Keith Law: I get hundreds more questions each week than I can answer. I don’t even know if I saw yours.
addoeh: I’m one day into my fortnightly three day bender.
Keith Law: Did she ever apologize for basically saying poor people are drunks who deserve to be poor?
Mike: Did the pitch clocks in MiLB make a noticeable difference in game times?
Keith Law: I will say they made games feel faster to me when I was in the stands.
Erik: Have you seen what Alex Bregman did today (he flew a 9 year old kid from Atlanta to Florida to hit BP with him). Great story and one MLB should be marketing the heck out of…
Keith Law: MLB should be marketing the heck out of Bregman, period. He’s the charismatic star they want Trout to be.
PD: How bad of an excuse is an imbalanced payroll for not signing free agents?
Keith Law: That’s a really bad one, especially since there’s no real evidence to support it – and the whole idea behind building from within was to get a cheap, homegrown core that you could afford to supplement with highly-paid free agents.
Bradley: upside of Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law: Unless he’s a way better hitter than I think he is, I don’t see a path to a regular.
PD: What’s your estimate of the current $ per WAR?
Keith Law: It will *always* vary by team. Always. The idea that you can just calculate a market $/WAR was wrong at a philosophical level.
Richard: Did you find anything good to eat in Houston?
Keith Law: Lunch at Himalaya, which was … not my favorite, but I recognize that may be the limitations of my palate. Dinner at Xochi which was fucking phenomenal.
Jeff B.: Probably crazy, but should the Rockies offer Bryce 31M/yr/10 years then challenge him to break the HR record before he turns 35?
Keith Law: Won’t happen but I do love the idea.
David: What do you make of Harper’s disaster defensive metrics last year? One-year blip or serious trend?
Keith Law: More blip. Mike Petriello did a great breakdown of that for mlb.com in the fall.
Ridley Kemp: Sorry I missed you in Austin. Did you get to try Loro or any other new-ish restaurant?
Keith Law: Better Half (get the waffled hash browns), Micklethwait Craft Meats, Backspace, Cane Rosso.
John: The sky is blue, the Pope is Catholic, and Keith Law doesn’t believe in superstition.
Keith Law: To be more accurate, the sky is blue, the Pope is Catholic, and superstitions aren’t real.
Sam: What is a good board game gift for a 10yo boy?
Keith Law: Has he ever played a ‘good’ board game? If not, Ticket to Ride. If yes, 7 Wonders.
Elton: “Kingdomino” is the other board game I’ve been enjoying with my family with help from your recommendation. It really hits the sweet spot of being strategic enough for my wife and I to enjoy, but simple enough for my seven year old to play (and even for my four year old with a little help).
Keith Law: It’s also fast to play, which I think is really important. Hardcore gamers disdain so-called gateway games – I actually blocked someone on Twitter once because he was being an asshole over my dislike of the length/complexity of the game Scythe – but there is a much bigger market for those than there is for complex games.
Jack: When you’re scouting high school senior pitchers, what’s the absolute maximum you can expect to see a guy gain on his fastball as he develops? I.e., is there any chance a guy that touches 88 will ever touch 98, or is the velocity ceiling close to being tapped at that point? Thanks!
Keith Law: Joel Zumaya did that. Strasburg did too.
Smrt Baseball: Like most of baseball, I am completely on board that OBP is more important than BA. OBP, of course, is somewhat dependent on the opposing pitcher’s control. If we assume that playoff teams have better pitchers with better control, is it possible that BA could be more important in the playoffs (at least compared to its importance in the regular season)? In other words, your ability to work a walk is somewhat mitigated by better pitchers in the playoffs.
Keith Law: A fair question but I do not know the answer. Are pitchers in October also throwing harder, since there are fewer low-stress pitches, so they have a higher chance of a swing and miss but also worse command?
John: Would you mind providing a little detail as to what the limitations of your palate are?
Keith Law: Oh, in this case I meant my unfamiliarity with south Asian cuisine in general, and the fact that I don’t eat beef or lamb. The waiter was somewhat adamant that I get the lunch special, which is the picture I posted on IG, but it had two things i don’t eat (I tasted them, but that’s it … eating too much of either will make me feel sick).
Jeff: Heading over to Surprise to watch Rutschman?
Keith Law: I’m in Fort Worth.
David: How serious are Verdugo’s makeup issues?
Keith Law: That depends on whom you ask. I have heard of his involvement in one issue serious enough to matter about four years ago.
SC: Does Machado accelerate or slow down Tatis’s timeline?
Keith Law: Neither.
Bill: Keep seeing you on guitar, not bad. Fan of Eddie Vedder?
Keith Law: I liked Pearl Jam’s first two albums quite a bit, tapered with Vitalogy, and was out by album four. I think their sound changed, which is absolutely their right as artists, but they went from something I really liked to something more influenced by the hard folk-rock of Neil Young and his spiritual descendants.
Jay: I was watching a Pirate game last summer and Huntington was a guest on the telecast and he would mention that he wasn’t a believer in having his top guys making so much more than other guys in the clubhouse or taking up more than X% of the payroll. Like it sowed some kind of clubhouse discord with the have and have nots and it was something he learned in his time in Cleveland. I mean, I get that winning cures most (all) clubhouse woes, but is there something to that? And yes, I understand at some level, that means bringing up the floor too so the disparity is not so large.
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. If the team wins, then the lesser-paid players get playoff shares, and perhaps can look forward to more earnings in the future.
Doug: How important is RH/LH balance within a lineup? I ask because depending on who is catching, Hosmer is the only LH hitter in the Padres projected lineup.
Keith Law: I only think this is real when a lineup is too left-handed, because it makes you vulnerable to LH relievers. Too right-handed shouldn’t matter much, or at least enough to make you want to specifically court LHB.
Illinois Paul: Is there value in a Matt Davidson being able to give you an inning or two on the mound in a blowout, or is that sort of two-way option much ado about nothing?
Keith Law: I think there would be value if he’s more than replacement level on the mound. Doesn’t have to be average, but somebody you could use in a game that’s still up for grabs.
Sam: You are in FW? You making any public appearances? I’m in Dallas
Keith Law: No public appearances, sorry. TCU tonight, Witt in the morning if he plays, then going home.
Pat D: If an AL team intends to keep 3 bench players and 8 relievers, what would they do with a proposed 26th roster spot? Another reliever, right?
Keith Law: Yes and I see that as a problem for pace of game and also for in-game strategy. I think you’d be better served with another bat anyway.
Pat: If you’re looking for a restaurant in Ft Worth, check out Ellerbe Fine Foods.
Keith Law: thanks but they open too late for me to hit them pregame
Ryan: Do you think Byron Buxton will bounce back this year or will he always be a disappointment offensively?
Keith Law: I’ve said this many, many times in the last year: He was hurt in 2018, and didn’t play much. He was good the last time he was healthy for an extended period.
Anthony: Did you follow any of the D1 opening weekend? If you did, anyone jump out?
Keith Law: No. If I’m at a game scouting, then of course I’m bearing down on players, but to watch what are often weak non-conference matchups doesn’t seem like a great use of my time. And my sister visited with her family so we were all quite busy.
Gregg R.: Please tell me the Mets are going to be good this year…pretty please? With a cherry on top?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you that. I can’t tell you they’ll be bad, either.
Alexander: I read that Bregman ranked 30th among 3rd basemen in defensive runs saved. Perhaps I’m mistaken, but I thought Bregman was an excellent defender. Is this random variance, a bad statistic, or a misinformed fan?
Keith Law: That is not accurate. Fangraphs shows 19 qualifiers at 3b last year. Bregman is 13th in UZR (-3.1) and 15th in DRS (-6). Miguel Andujar was the worst by a wide margin.
Derick: Hey Keith — thoughts on the redone episodes of Good Eats? Or just waiting for the new ones? Or just rewatching old ones?
Keith Law: I’ll watch them eventually but I almost never put my TV on at home any more.
Matt: Taking personal stuff out of it, as we probably both agree Cubs should’ve released him, where are you at with Addison Russell the player? Bat redeemable? Cubs need his D in middle IF?
Keith Law: Bat redeemable, Cubs don’t need him. If he can’t take responsibility for himself, I’m not sanguine that he’ll do what he has to do to improve as a player, either. And yes, fire him into the sun, I’m fine with that.
Chad: Do you think Max Muncy’s 2018 was a fluke or can he be a legitimate starting 1B going forward?
Keith Law: I expect regression but he’ll still be a regular.
gavin: could the Padres attach at top 100 prospect to dump Wil Myers?
Keith Law: Not sure that does it with teams so afraid of bad contracts. Irony – the Rays are one team that might consider it.
Sam: Any chance Nomar Mazara finally breaks out this year?
Keith Law: I thought he was breaking out last year, but got that one wrong.
Kevin : Who is somebody (non baseball) you would love to meet/have dinner?
Keith Law: People who are way outside of my field but do something of interest to me – a great novelist like Ann Patchett, who writes wonderful prose and crafts believable, compelling characters; or maybe a Jose Andres, who has shown dedication to helping his fellow man like few others with his fame and material success.
John: If it looks like the Phillies are about to land Harper, should that give a team like the Mets or any of the NL East contenders incentive to jump in? It would probably make you the team to beat in the East and seriously hurt the chances of one of your main competitors. I know there’s no chance the Wilpons would do it, but should they?
Keith Law: You would think, right? Or the Nats? If Harper signs with the Phils, they’re the preseason favorites. That doesn’t mean they’ll win, or even make the playoffs for sure, but there’s immediate value in being the favorites (you’ll sell a bunch of tickets and jerseys). And the Phils could use the boost of good news too.
MikeDP: Should the Rays continue to try to solve the stadium issue or just move? I just don’t see the area supporting the team enough even with a stadium in the city. The franchise seems to know how to win games in the highest payroll division.
Keith Law: That’s the one franchise I think needs to move to another metro area.
Rick: Can Soler return to the form he had early last season, before he went out for the year?
Keith Law: I will stubbornly say yes.
Keith Law: OK, time to find something to eat quickly before the Frogs’ game. I should have a draft blog post recapping my soggy week in Texas sometime this weekend, and then will be home next week to work on a draft top 30 (we postponed it a few days because my travel has been a mess). Thank you all, as always, for reading, and thanks for the lack of creepy weird questions this week. Have a safe and dry weekend.